FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[02 Warhawk]

Is "overrated" the correct word?

It does detemine who gets into the playoffs at what their seed might be.

[emma17]

I haven't seen Wheaton play prior to today so I don't have perspective on their typical game.
I attended the game today and besides being surprised by a lower attendance for such a big game- I was surprised with how flat and mistake prone Wheaton was. From punting to poor play against the option there were unforced errors that created such a score disparity.

Emma, Wheaton is a very good team. I don't think they were flat. I was in the endzone watching them during the pregame, and they appeared to be focused and energetic. They just played an NCC team that was better.

Remember, Wheaton beat Platteville in the third week by 9 points, and UWP (despite all the injuries they've had) is tied for 2nd in the WIAC. UWP gave your Warhawks a game for three quarters.

Gator, I wasn't trying to compare Wheaton to a WIAC team.  I was simply stating that Wheaton made mental mistakes that contributed to such a score differenct.  I agree that NCC was/is the better team.  The truth I have come to know in watching the best teams play is that they minimize the unforced errors.  Wheaton's first two punts absolutely contributed to the 14-0 early deficit.  Then when Wheaton was trying to make a push, there was a punt that needed to be fielded in order to win the field position battle, and another mental mistake led to the loss of field position.  In the second half, Wheaton did not play the option well when NCC's Crackel was at QB.  No doubt you have to credit Crackel, but at the same time, the defense has to commit and make a play on the QB-they failed to do that several times.  These are mental mistakes that make it that much harder for Wheaton to have a chance.
I came to the game today hoping that 3 CCIW teams would have a shot at the playoffs-not looking to compare the WIAC to the CCIW. 

[BoBo]

One last point:
NCC d. Bethel 70-26; and Bethel d. UWEC 26-21 -- net +49 over the #5 WIAC team while UWW d. UWEC 37-22 (+15).
NCC d. WC 33-7; and WC d. UWP 23-14 -- net +35 over the #2 WIAC team while UWW d. UWP 34-14 (+20).

Bust,

@Bethel (TN) 26 UWEC 21
@NCC 70 Bethel (TN) 26
UWW 37 @UWEC 22
@Cumberland (TN) 36 Bethel (TN) 34
@Campbellsville (TN) 30 Cumberland (TN) 27
@UWW 54 Campbellsville 14

Besides you never know what you're getting with an NAIA school, what does this mean to you?

[ncc_fan]

Last year's schedule was a bit weaker, but folks can't complain about games against four Top 20 teams and very good CC and MU teams.

Updated SOS numbers for Top 10 teams in North Region (in Regional Ranking order from last week):

Mount Union         #81
Franklin               #217
Wabash               #144
NCC                    #8
Case                    #126
IWU                    #20
WC                     #14
Baldwin Wallace   #105
Wittenberg          #117
Albion                  #60

Redlands is winning again and Bethel of Tennessee won again to go to 7-2 overall.  Neither of these is taken into account in NCC's OWP.

NCC vs. Redlands was an "in-region" game.  The loss is included in NCC's regional record (7-1), and Redlands' record is included in NCC's SoS.

[Stagg Again!!]

Last year's schedule was a bit weaker, but folks can't complain about games against four Top 20 teams and very good CC and MU teams.

Updated SOS numbers for Top 10 teams in North Region (in Regional Ranking order from last week):

Mount Union         #81
Franklin               #217
Wabash               #144
NCC                    #8
Case                    #126
IWU                    #20
WC                     #14
Baldwin Wallace   #105
Wittenberg          #117
Albion                  #60

Redlands is winning again and Bethel of Tennessee won again to go to 7-2 overall.  Neither of these is taken into account in NCC's OWP.

NCC vs. Redlands was an "in-region" game.  The loss is included in NCC's regional record (7-1), and Redlands' record is included in NCC's SoS.

I am aware.  TONIGHT'S Redlands win had not gone final when the last SOS update was completed.  My point was that at an additional Redlands win plus Bethel's 7-2 record would take the OWP up as you would add 8 wins and 2 losses to 2/3 of the calculation. 

[Stagg Again!!]

Bobo --

If you did note, I went on to say ...

I know circular math doesn't always work, but I believe NCC is a better overall team NOW than they were heading into the playoffs last year.  As I noted, they have more overall team speed everywhere on the field; have weathered the storm (zebras at Redlands and cancer in Naperville); and have MUCH MUCH better overall QB play than they did in the playoffs (w/ Stanek) last year.  IMO.

My point is that I do believe that NCC is moving closer to the Top 2 each year, and firmly believe that they will take another step closer this year in the playoffs.  Perhaps the Cardinals may even have an opportunity to come calling at the Perk this year to take another crack at the champ.  IMO (clearly), the road to the top still runs through UWW and Mt. Union.

BTW, what a fantastic achievement for LC today.  Too bad the CCIW let him get away!!

[BoBo]

Bobo --

If you did note, I went on to say ...

I know circular math doesn't always work, but I believe NCC is a better overall team NOW than they were heading into the playoffs last year.  As I noted, they have more overall team speed everywhere on the field; have weathered the storm (zebras at Redlands and cancer in Naperville); and have MUCH MUCH better overall QB play than they did in the playoffs (w/ Stanek) last year.  IMO.

I'm well aware of that, but chose to ignore it...why you ask?  You can't go on comparing scores on one hand - trying to say 'hey look everyone, we beat who they beat by more so we must be better' and then, on the other hand, say 'ah, well, it doesn't always work."  That was the same shtick you went fast and furious with last year about this time, as I remember. And it didn't work then, so why use it again? NCC has a fine team, no one is debating that. You don't have to lower yourself to that level to prove something everyone already knows. Just trying to save you a little  .

[hazzben]

One last point:
NCC d. Bethel 70-26; and Bethel d. UWEC 26-21 -- net +49 over the #5 WIAC team while UWW d. UWEC 37-22 (+15).
NCC d. WC 33-7; and WC d. UWP 23-14 -- net +35 over the #2 WIAC team while UWW d. UWP 34-14 (+20).
I know circular math doesn't always work, but I believe NCC is a better overall team NOW than they were heading into the playoffs last year.  As I noted, they have more overall team speed everywhere on the field; have weathered the storm (zebras at Redlands and cancer in Naperville); and have MUCH MUCH better overall QB play than they did in the playoffs (w/ Stanek) last year.  IMO.

That's a really dicey game to play. It's one thing to compare common opponents. E.g. North Central to UWEC via their performances against Bethel (TN). But even that doesn't always tell us as much as we'd think. Teams match up with teams in very different ways. Really lopsided score differentials and opposite results (NCC's win and UWEC's loss) are really probably the only telling pieces here, and only to a point. But as soon as you throw another team between the compared teams it loses all credibility. It's a fun thing to do, but really not worth much of anything.

[Titan Q]

Not that it matters for anything, but it will be interesting to see what the happens in the D3football.com Top 25 Poll with Wheaton and IWU.  Consider...

* When IWU and Wheaton played on Oct 1, Wheaton was ranked #7 and IWU was not ranked (Week 4 poll)

* After IWU's win, the Titans entered the poll at #18, with Wheaton falling to #19 (Week 5 poll)

* In the Week 6 poll, IWU and Wheaton inched up to #16 and #17 respectively, and then to #15 and #16 in Week 7

* In the Week 8 poll, after IWU lost 24-0 to North Central, the Titans fell all the way to #24, while Wheaton rose to #13 that same week, creating a gap of 11 spots. 

* The most recent poll (Week 9) had Wheaton #13 and IWU #21


I'm guessing we might see IWU at #19 and Wheaton #20.

[Stagg Again!!]

Is "overrated" the correct word?

It does detemine who gets into the playoffs at what their seed might be.

02 Warhawk -

I noticed Bobo's comments regarding SOS which now seems to have disappeared from the board.  Regardless of any of our opinions of the measure, it is one of the key statistics used by the NCAA in their Regional Rankings and tournament seedings.  While I am certain that any one of us can come up with multiple reasons why the whole process is flawed, I am also certain that NCC played a very tough schedule this year.  I am also certain that NCC played a more challenging schedule than did Franklin, Wabash, Case, IWU, Wittenberg, and Albion, and may have played a slightly more challenging schedule than did WC.  As you well know the greater the percentage of in conference games as a percentage of total games played (such as with the OAC) and the greater the number of high quality in-conference opponents (such as with the OAC, WIAC, and CCIW), the less meaningful the measure.  I know that UWW got bitten by this snake last year and it ended up sending them to a #2 seed in the North region.

I would be hard pressed to find anyone in the country that had a more difficult schedule that UW-Oshkosh who played Central, Mount Union, UWW, and the rest of the WIAC schedule, but due to the formulation, their schedule ranks out at #58.

[Stagg Again!!]

Last year's schedule was a bit weaker, but folks can't complain about games against four Top 20 teams and very good CC and MU teams.

Updated SOS numbers for Top 10 teams in North Region (in Regional Ranking order from last week):

Mount Union         #81
Franklin               #217
Wabash               #144
NCC                    #8
Case                    #126
IWU                    #20
WC                     #14
Baldwin Wallace   #105
Wittenberg          #117
Albion                  #60

Redlands is winning again and Bethel of Tennessee won again to go to 7-2 overall.  Neither of these is taken into account in NCC's OWP.

NCC vs. Redlands was an "in-region" game.  The loss is included in NCC's regional record (7-1), and Redlands' record is included in NCC's SoS.

I am aware.  TONIGHT'S Redlands win had not gone final when the last SOS update was completed.  My point was that at an additional Redlands win plus Bethel's 7-2 record would take the OWP up as you would add 8 wins and 2 losses to 2/3 of the calculation.

Case in point, if you look at the new updated SOS number on the D3Football.com after the west coast scores went final (and Redland's victory was in the books), NCC's SOS went up from #8 to #6.  If Bethel's full 7-2 record were factored in, I am certain that NCC's SOS would be positively impacted.

[Titan Q]

North Central's rise as a program, obviously, is due to the overall talent level on the roster - the Cardinals have better football players than everyone else in the league.  In addition to the top-notch D3 recruits John Thorne and staff are getting right out of H.S. - guys like Kyle Fiedorowicz (who might play in the NFL), Nick Kukoc, freshman QB Tyler Dicken, Joey Michals, etc  - they are also leveraging transfers in a big way.

Here are the transfers (from a variety of levels) that are key contributors to NCC's 2011 squad...

Offense
OL Will Thrun (UW-Platteville)
OL  John Cannova (Butler)
OL Jace Werkheiser (Northern Illinois)
RB Jordan Tassio (Western Illinois)
WR Joe Antonacci (Drake)

Defense
DE Valente Garza (College of DuPage)
LB Scott Skuteris (Illinois State)
LB Tharryn Wright (Ball State)
CB Josh Mitchell (Quincy)
FS Josh McLeod (Truman St)


With the recruiting machine NCC has going, it will continue to be extremely hard for other CCIW programs to compete.  Wheaton, for example, has always been able to attract outstanding Christian kids from all over the country (freshman WR Mark Hiben is a D1-caliber talent in my opinion...just as Andy Studebaker and Pete Ittersagen in recent years were), but I don't think even Wheaton is positioned to bring in enough talent to close the gap with NCC as a program.  Illinois Wesleyan is always going to get talented kids from all over the state (the Rob Gallik's, Ben Houk's, Joey Driver's, etc), but again, I just don't see IWU being able to get the depth of talent needed to catch the Cardinals.  Same for the rest of the league really.

It will be interesting to watch this all play out over the course of the next few seasons.  I could be wrong, but I just see a machine in place that is going to be around quite a while.

[NCF]

North Central's rise as a program, obviously, is due to the overall talent level on the roster - the Cardinals have better football players than everyone else in the league.  In addition to the top-notch D3 recruits John Thorne and staff are getting right out of H.S. - guys like Kyle Fiedorowicz (who might play in the NFL), Nick Kukoc, freshman QB Tyler Dicken, etc  - they are also leveraging transfers in a big way.

Here are the transfers (from a variety of levels) that are key contributors to NCC's 2011 squad...

Offense
OL  John Cannova (Butler)
OL Jace Werkheiser (Northern Illinois)
RB Jordan Tassio (Western Illinois)
WR Joe Antonacci (Drake)

Defense
DE Valente Garza (College of DuPage)
LB Scott Skuteris (Illinois State)
LB Joey Michals (UW-Platteville)
LB Tharryn Wright (Ball State)
CB Josh Mitchell (Quincy)
FS Josh McLeod (Truman St)


With the recruiting machine NCC has going, it will continue to be extremely hard for other CCIW programs to compete.  Wheaton, for example, has always been able to attract the best of the best Christian kids from all over the country, but I don't think even Wheaton is positioned to bring in enough talent to push NCC as a program.

Just a quick correction: Joey Michals came from Providence Catholic straight to NC and not all the best Christian kids go to Wheaton. NC has plenty of good Christian football players on their roster.

[Titan Q]

Just a quick correction: Joey Michals came from Providence Catholic straight to NC and not all the best Christian kids go to Wheaton. NC has plenty of good Christian football players on their roster.

I confused Michals with the guy listed one spot above him on the roster. 

Yes, regarding Wheaton and Christian kids, I did not word that well.

(I edited the post above to address both.)

[USee]

First the good news: Wheaton came into the game against NCC as healthy as they have been all season, they were not penalized at all in the game (only the second time I have EVER seen that happen in a football game) and they actually played pretty well in the first half.

Now the bad news: they still got double donkey stomped. That was a Mt Unionesque display of talent and domination. And I don't see it going away any time soon. The national titles will be coming to Naperville, it is a matter of time. I don't think it's this year (more on that later) but they are coming. The depth, talent and coaching are simply too good to deny what is going to be inevitable.

Congrats to North Central, they dominated one of the best leagues in the country week in and week out and are poised to make a deep run into the playoffs. I think they are one of the top 3 programs in the nation. I still think Wheaton and IWU are top 20, I just think NCC is on the upper tier. I would love for them to go to Alliance and play Mt Union this year. That would be a great game to see. I hope they don't have to go to UWW, that's a game we all have seen and I want to see another CCIW school get the experience of going to Alliance to play a playoff game in December.