FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

Thank you all for defending me, and my comment about "til someone knocks them off."  I rest your case.   Nuff said.  Thank you. 

Yes, it's clear NCC is not invincible, but their row of conference championships and appearances in the post-season in recent years speaks for itself. 

I'll leave comparisons with Augie in the 80s, other CCIW dynasties of yore, etc. to the historians.

Of course, I for one, hope WC and IWU do close the gap and have wins vs. NCC this season.  Let's hope the games are good, clean, injury-free, hard-fought and close.  Let the games begin.  Should be a very exciting, competitive season.

IWU70

[USee]

 (Cue Denny Green press conference......) I think I know as well as anyone that one game does not a dynasty make. I also have been the one who has recognized NCC's interim dominance in conference play over the past couple of years in particular. I just don't believe a team that lost as badly as they did to Wheaton last year at home last year, combined with their inability to make any kind of consistent deep playoff run is worthy of crowning dominant or a dynasty at this point.

It is not even in the conversation to compare what NCC is doing over the past 8 years to what Augie did over 14 years (see my stats a few pages back). My other point is that I simply don't believe Wheaton (or IWU for that matter) believe NCC is that much better than them this year. We will certainly find out as NCC plays 3 WIAC schools (middle and lower tier WIAC schools) over the next 3 weeks. I don't see a Wenger, Kukuc, Tassio, DTacklefreak, on this Cardinal team. Those players may indeed emerge and I may be proven wrong but my not-so-expert opinion is that NCC's diappointing playoff loss to Wabash 2 years ago followed by the embarrassing defeat by their rival and another early round exit are signs of them coming back to the pack in the CCIW. It's not a knock against them but..."They are who we thought they were...."

[USee]

NCF,

You continue to point out Wheaton's lack of playoff appearances in the last 2 years. That doesn't even begin to address the points I am making about NCC (rather deflects them) and certainly doesn't make your team look any better for losing so badly to a team that couldn't even reach the playoffs.

Jaybird--I already know the answer, but what is your evidence when you say "Wheaton and IWU are still a few steps behind at the moment"?

[NCF]

NCF,

You continue to point out Wheaton's lack of playoff appearances in the last 2 years. That doesn't even begin to address the points I am making about NCC (rather deflects them) and certainly doesn't make your team look any better for losing so badly to a team that couldn't even reach the playoffs.

Jaybird--I already know the answer, but what is your evidence when you say "Wheaton and IWU are still a few steps behind at the moment"?

Your point is that Wheaton beat NC at home last season, same as NC beating Wheaton at home in 2010. If these are the top two teams in the conference, then I expect the series to be very close to a 50-50 split, no matter where you play the game.( If I recall correctly, the past four seasons have seen NC go 3-1 against Wheaton, 3-1 against IWU and 4-0 over everyone else. I don't expect any team in the CCIW to go 7-0 year in and year out, do you?).Last season is history, this season you say the top three are thisclose, so if that is the case then it will be played out on the field. Maybe this will be the year NC is denied a conference championship, either outright or shared.
As far as the post season, the goal is the National Championship-everything else is failure.

[Langhorst_Ghost]

As far as the post season, the goal is the National Championship-everything else is failure.

So, every college football season since 1898 in Naperville has been a "failure?" 

[NCF]

As far as the post season, the goal is the National Championship-everything else is failure.

So, every college football season since 1898 in Naperville has been a "failure?"

To certain people I would say yes. To the coaches, probably not. It's nice to win conference championships, but that is not the end all be all.

[Gregory Sager]

As far as the post season, the goal is the National Championship-everything else is failure.

So, every college football season since 1898 in Naperville has been a "failure?"

To certain people I would say yes. To the coaches, probably not.

I wouldn't say it to the players, either, if I were you. They're bigger than you.

(Of course, I would never expect one of Coach Thorne's players to hit a lady. )

I don't think anybody on this board who is more than just a cheerleader with a skirt, would say North Central is not the 800 lb gorilla in the conference at the top of the hill.  Wheaton, IWU, and perhaps 1 or 2 others depending on X year have come close,  but reality is NC is the Augie of the 80's Wheaton of the 50's, Carthage of the late 60's/70's, etc.  they have sesstained a level of play for a streak of years, that has not week in/week out been matched by others.

I appreciate the general point you're trying to make here, and I wear quite a bit of red and white.  But without sporting a whole lot more bling than they currently wear, current-day North Central , Wheaton of the '50s, Carthage of the late '60s/'70s, and every other freakin' team in CCIW history absolutely should not be put in the same class as those Augie teams from the 80s.  Sustained CCIW excellence is only the beginning of what those Viking teams achieved.

Fixed it for you, Kiko.

[NCF]

^Hahaha-my bad I meant if you asked certain people (players included) what their thoughts were, many of them would  say they were disappointed in the outcome of the last few seasons.

[79jaybird]

kiko- I am referring to CCIW dynasty/prowess

[USee]

NCF,

You continue to point out Wheaton's lack of playoff appearances in the last 2 years. That doesn't even begin to address the points I am making about NCC (rather deflects them) and certainly doesn't make your team look any better for losing so badly to a team that couldn't even reach the playoffs.

Jaybird--I already know the answer, but what is your evidence when you say "Wheaton and IWU are still a few steps behind at the moment"?

Your point is that Wheaton beat NC at home last season, same as NC beating Wheaton at home in 2010. If these are the top two teams in the conference, then I expect the series to be very close to a 50-50 split, no matter where you play the game.( If I recall correctly, the past four seasons have seen NC go 3-1 against Wheaton, 3-1 against IWU and 4-0 over everyone else. I don't expect any team in the CCIW to go 7-0 year in and year out, do you?).Last season is history, this season you say the top three are thisclose, so if that is the case then it will be played out on the field. Maybe this will be the year NC is denied a conference championship, either outright or shared.
As far as the post season, the goal is the National Championship-everything else is failure.

NCF: I think we agree.

RE: 2010...the difference was that was NCC's best team ever IMO. Wheaton "couldn't even make the playoffs" in 2012.

RE: the series being a 50-50 split, I think that is generous but I don't disagree. There is a big difference between a 50-50 split amongst NCC/Wheaton and Wheaton being a "few steps behind" or NCC as "king of the mountain".

That was my point. I just don't think there is as much separation between NCC/Wheaton/IWU as there has been in past years (2010 being the most separation).

[iwu70]

I agree there's probably not much separation between IWU/NCC/WC this year, especially if all the teams stay healthy, have their best players on the field.  Hiben's loss is very big, IMHO.  IWU has to stay healthy, keep Gallik out there and get some production from the running game.  Looks like some new blood will make a big impression = Checchin and Devonte Jones.  Jones' all-purpose yardage that first game was eye-popping.  Defense will be good, as usual, I'm pretty sure, though there are some key players there too who may have injury issues, now and longer term in the season.  Should be some great games later in the season, esp. if these three teams play well initially and have no losses going into those late season match-ups which likely determine the CCIW crown.

Looking forward to it.

IWU70

[emma17]

I was thinking about taking in the Wheaton vs. Albion game this weekend- so I checked out how the Britons did last week.  Holy cow, anybody see the box score in their win over Defiance?   

Not that NCC needs more support, but I feel it's a bit misleading when their playoff record is attacked as not making it deep into the playoffs.  Their 2010 team was the victim of unfortunate playoff pairings.  I know this will get the goat of some, but UWW should never have been seeded as low as they were- sending them on the road to NCC in round 3.  With a better seeding, NCC is playing in the Semis and maybe the Stagg- IMO they were at least as good as Mt that year.

[USee]

I was thinking about taking in the Wheaton vs. Albion game this weekend- so I checked out how the Britons did last week.  Holy cow, anybody see the box score in their win over Defiance?   

Not that NCC needs more support, but I feel it's a bit misleading when their playoff record is attacked as not making it deep into the playoffs.  Their 2010 team was the victim of unfortunate playoff pairings.  I know this will get the goat of some, but UWW should never have been seeded as low as they were- sending them on the road to NCC in round 3.  With a better seeding, NCC is playing in the Semis and maybe the Stagg- IMO they were at least as good as Mt that year.

Emma,  that was considered in my comments.  Wheaton has only lost 1 playoff game ever to a team not named Mt Union. 

[kiko]

I was thinking about taking in the Wheaton vs. Albion game this weekend- so I checked out how the Britons did last week.  Holy cow, anybody see the box score in their win over Defiance?   

Not that NCC needs more support, but I feel it's a bit misleading when their playoff record is attacked as not making it deep into the playoffs.  Their 2010 team was the victim of unfortunate playoff pairings.  I know this will get the goat of some, but UWW should never have been seeded as low as they were- sending them on the road to NCC in round 3.  With a better seeding, NCC is playing in the Semis and maybe the Stagg- IMO they were at least as good as Mt that year.

Emma,  that was considered in my comments.  Wheaton has only lost 1 playoff game ever to a team not named Mt Union.

So for comparison's sake, I took a look at playoff records and opponents for the Dupage Hatfields and McCoys since the turn of the millennium.

Here's Wheaton:

2002
11/23    at Alma    W, 42-14    
11/30    at Mount Union •    L, 42-21

2003
11/22    vs. Hope    W, 55-45    
11/29    vs. Baldwin-Wallace    W, 16-12    
12/6    at Mount Union    L, 56-10

2004
11/20    vs. Mount St. Joseph    W, 31-7    
11/27    at Mount Union •    L, 27-6

2006
11/18    vs. Mount St. Joseph    W, 42-28    
11/25    at Mount Union    L, 35-3

2008
11/22    at Trine    W, 14-0    
11/29    at Wabash    W, 59-28    
12/6        at Franklin    W, 45-28    
12/13    at Mount Union    L, 45-24    

2010
11/20    vs. Coe    W, 31-21    BX RC
11/27    vs. Bethel    L, 15-10    BX RC

Total Record - 9-6
0-5 versus Mount
5-0 versus the MIAA, which is 2-10 in the past decade
4-1 versus others


====

Here's North Central:

2005
11/19    vs. Capital    L, 21-19    

2006
11/18    at Concordia (Wis.)    W, 35-6    
11/25    at Capital    L, 41-13

2007
11/17    vs. Franklin    W, 44-42    RC
11/24    at UW-Whitewater    L, 59-28    

2008
11/22    vs. Thomas More    W, 44-23    
11/29    vs. Franklin    L, 38-28

2010
11/20    vs. St. Norbert    W, 57-7    BX RC
11/27    vs. Ohio Northern    W, 28-9    BX RC
12/4    vs. UW-Whitewater    L, 20-10    BX BX RC RC P

2011
11/19    vs. Dubuque    W, 59-13    BX RC
11/26    at Wabash    L, 29-28    BX RC

2012
11/17    at Cal Lutheran    W, 41-21    BX RC
11/24    at Linfield    L, 30-14    BX RC


Total Record - 7-7

The seven losses:
Capital - which then lost by 3 to Mount in QF
Capital - which then lost by 3 to Mount in QF
Whitewater - won Stagg Bowl
Franklin - which then lost to Wheaton in QF
Whitewater - won Stagg Bowl
Wabash - which then lost to Mount in QF
Linfield - which then lost to Oshkosh in QF

========

I have been underwhelmed by what the Cardinals have done in the playoffs in recent years -- with their sustained regular season success and the CCIW's supposed position as a strong D3 football conference, I would expect fewer slip ups prior to the purples.   (And that projection of the CCIW as a top-tier conference is IMO (1) is very much up for debate based on *everyone's* performance against that middle ground between the cupcake conferences and the purple powers,  and (2) is fairly difficult to measure given how frequently we run into the purple teams in rounds 2/3 of the playoffs.)

That said, I think drawing the conclusion that Wheaton has been a consistently stronger playoff team is misleading.  The Cardinals have had more losses against that middle tier of playoff teams, no doubt.  But they've also had more games against that level of competition.

With all due respect to the other conferences that are part of this conversation, they seem to be playing the role of Enterprise crew members wearing red shirts for the brief cameo at the beginning of the episode.  Beating MIAA teams doesn't impress me.  Nor does North Central beating the Concordias, the Dubuques, and the St. Norberts of the world.

It is subjective to separate conferences into various categories, but if we split the world into the purples, the should-beat-these-guys, and the middles, North Central's playoff opponents and their records might look like this:

Should Beat Thems: 5-0
Wins over Concordia, Thomas More, St. Norbert's, Dubuque, and Cal Lutheran.

(I put Cal Lutheran here because the SoCal teams have typically been short-timers in the playoffs.  You may have a different opinion on this.)

Middles - 2-4
Two losses to Capital
Win + Loss versus Franklin
Win over Ohio Northern
Loss to Wabash

Purples - 0-3
Two losses to Whitewater and one to Linfield.

You can argue which category Linfield belongs in; they have a Walnut and Bronze in their trophy case so I place them here.

-----

Wheaton's would look like this:

Should Beat Thems - 5-0
Wins over Alma, Hope, Mount St. Joseph (2), Trine, and Coe

Middles - 3-1
Wins over Baldwin-Wallace, Wabash, and Franklin
Loss to Bethel

Purples - 0-5
Five losses to Mount

===

So, against the middles, North Central is 2-4 and Wheaton is 3-1.  The biggest driver of this is 2008, where Wheaton secured two of its four wins against middles, and in the process beat a team that had eliminated the Cardinals.  Outside of this season, I really don't see much difference in how the two schools have fared in the playoffs.  Wheaton's losses are mostly to Mount, but their road to get there was not always the most difficult in the world.

(And to be clear, succeeding against those Middle Ground schools is absolutely where North Central has the biggest opportunity to  move the program to the next level.  Folks are often eager to measure them against the purples, but the Birds haven't graded out consistently against the middles yet.  They're getting better, as they've won two of their most recent four here, but elite teams don't lose games like the Cardinals did against Wabash in 2011.)

[USee]

Kiko,

Thanks for this. It is some good analysis and good food for thought. I would make only a couple of points.

You left off Wheaton's 1995 season where they beat Wittenberg at home (as a decided underdog) and then lost @ Mt Union (after trailing in the 4th quarter 14-7).

You also didn't list Wheaton's 7 losses the way you list NCC's:

@Mt Union which then lost to UWLax in the semis (who won the Stagg)
@Mt Union which won the Stagg
@Mt Union which lost the Stagg to St Johns
@Mt Union which lost in Semis to UMHB
@Mt Union which won the Stagg
@Mt Union wich lost the Stagg to UWW
@Mt Union which lost the Stagg to UWW
Vs Bethel which lost in Semis to Mt Union

Wheaton never lost to a team that lost in the QF. Wheaton mad the QF

Also, you make the following statement:

So, against the middles, North Central is 2-4 and Wheaton is 3-1.  The biggest driver of this is 2008, where Wheaton secured two of its four wins against middles, and in the process beat a team that had eliminated the Cardinals.  Outside of this season, I really don't see much difference in how the two schools have fared in the playoffs.  Wheaton's losses are mostly to Mount, but their road to get there was not always the most difficult in the world.

You can't make this claim. Wheaton's two biggest coup's were first beating Baldwin Wallace in 2003, when BW had only lost to Mt Union and beat every other OAC team by at least 18 pts. This was when no OAC team had lost in the playoffs to anyone outside of Mt Union and not a single person on these boards (including me) thought Wheaton had any chance of beating BW or even competing with them.

The second was the 2008 season when Wheaton was the 32nd and last team into the field via pool C and a decided underdog on the road the 3 teams and beat them all to make it the semifinals. You can't say "outside of this season" because that's almost 40% of the data AND it includes a road win against the team that beat NCC, who lost at home. Those are some of the biggest differentiators between the two schools in their playoff history (another being that Wheaton has been to 3 QF and 1 Semi and NCC has only been to 1 QF) so you cannot simply say those don't count and the two schools have performed similarly. That's just not sound.