FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

A few observations that may be of little to no interets:

This week features Wheaton v Elmhurst and Augustana v Millikin as the only real games of intrigue as tune-ups to three consecutive showdown week's featuring Wheaton @ IWU, NCC @ IWU, and finishing with NCC @Wheaton.

As we look at the top 3 teams in the conference, until they play each other we really won't know much about how good they are other than experiential perceptions (IWU and Wheaton have 28 srs, NCC beat 3 WIAC teams, Wheaton beat NCC last year, NCC has the top rated QB, IWU was undefeated before Gallik got hurt, etc). These and other inherently biased perceptions skew each of our perspectives, whether that is good or bad.

The main reason we don't know much about these three teams (or most of the top 10 teams in the North Region) are because none of them have played a quality opponent. NCC has come closest by beating a 4-1 UWSP team. But that's the only team with a winning record NCC has beat. The collective record of the rest of their schedule is 4-16. Wheaton has wins over 3 teams with winning records, albeit Albion, Benedictine and Augie aren't scaring anybody right now, and IWU's only win over a winning team is a 14-7 home win over 4-2 Hope (Their other opponents are 3-18).

The same could be said for most of the North Region by the way. Mt Union's opponents are 6-19 right now but we can be pretty sure they are good. Wabash's opponents are 11-16, Wittenberg's are 13-16, Heidleberg's foes are 3-23 yet we all assume they are good teams because of their margin's of relative domination. Franklin is widely assumed to be the 2nd best team in the region because they LOST close games to 2 teams that are 5-0 and 5-2 respectively. It's a crazy system we live in.

All of this simply means that when Wheaton and IWU square off a week from Saturday (not that anyone is looking ahead) the best teams either of them will have played is each other. NCC has a solid win over UWSP (the other 2 WIAC wins for them are over teams that are a combined 2-8) that will help them when they face IWU and Wheaton is successive weeks but there isn't a lot of predictability in the coming weeks, which CCIW fans should enjoy.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Not disagreeing with anything - just chucking a few more thoughts/reactions out there.

The same could be said for most of the North Region by the way. Mt Union's opponents are 6-19 right now but we can be pretty sure they are good. Wabash's opponents are 11-16, Wittenberg's are 13-16, Heidleberg's foes are 3-23 yet we all assume they are good teams because of their margin's of relative domination.

I think that's kind natural early in the season.  One thing I keep in mind when looking at "opponents records" early in the season is that an undefeated team has naturally contributed several of the L's.  Mount Union's opponents are 6-19, but they're 6-14 against non-Mount opponents.  Wabash's opponents are 11-16, but 11-11 against non-Wabash opponents, and so forth.  I know it all more or less evens out when comparing undefeated teams to one another since they all have that same quirk, but I still think it's worth noting early in the season because sometimes people throw that number out there with no context (i.e. Mount Union's opponents are 6-19! They haven't played anybody!).

Franklin is widely assumed to be the 2nd best team in the region because they LOST close games to 2 teams that are 5-0 and 5-2 respectively. It's a crazy system we live in.

I know you're not disagreeing with this train of thought re: Franklin, but one additional piece worth noting here - that "5-2" team they lost to is an FCS team that utterly demolished one of the other presumed "good" teams a week before.  I don't know what would happen if Franklin and Witt shared the field but I do think that has to be considered a valuable piece of information.

All of this simply means that when Wheaton and IWU square off a week from Saturday (not that anyone is looking ahead) the best teams either of them will have played is each other.

Now this gets to an exciting final point: in weeks 9-10-11 and the playoffs, we get a lot of this type of game where both teams are playing their toughest opponent yet.  I checked out the schedules for Week 10 and 11 nationally and nearly had to be restrained.  Week 11 has at least three games that will have major pool A/C implications (for BOTH teams) involving realistic contenders to make a deep playoff run (i.e. not like Johns Hopkins demolishing McDaniel to officially win their Pool A bid).  Depending on the next few weeks in the MIAC, Bethel vs. St. John's could affect the playoff hopes of 4 or more teams.  Same could be said for Mount vs. John Carroll (pending the Mount-Berg and Berg-Carroll results).

[matblake]

Should be an interesting month coming up.  Other interesting games ahead are Millikin/Elmhurst & Augie/North Park on 10/26.  Both of those should start to clear up where teams set up in the overall standings of the conference. 

[79jaybird]

Elmhurst needs to go into the McCully not with the mindset of win or loss, rather focus on some consistency and some gel.  We haven't played well @ McCully in a long time.  I can recall some early 00's games where turnovers and field position heavily favored Wheaton and the game was over virtually after 1 quarter. 

On the flipside- I wouldn't take Elmhurst too lightly and overlook this game (awaiting IWU).   

[CardinalAlum]

Elmhurst needs to go into the McCully not with the mindset of win or loss, rather focus on some consistency and some gel.  We haven't played well @ McCully in a long time.  I can recall some early 00's games where turnovers and field position heavily favored Wheaton and the game was over virtually after 1 quarter. 

On the flipside- I wouldn't take Elmhurst too lightly and overlook this game (awaiting IWU).

I disagree.  I actually think Elmhurst played a very good first half of football against NCC.   The lightning delay zapped all of Elmhurst's momentum and gave the Cards the jolt (pun intended) that they needed.   

[NCF]

Elmhurst needs to go into the McCully not with the mindset of win or loss, rather focus on some consistency and some gel.  We haven't played well @ McCully in a long time.  I can recall some early 00's games where turnovers and field position heavily favored Wheaton and the game was over virtually after 1 quarter. 

On the flipside- I wouldn't take Elmhurst too lightly and overlook this game (awaiting IWU).

I disagree.  I actually think Elmhurst played a very good first half of football against NCC.   The lightning delay zapped all of Elmhurst's momentum and gave the Cards the jolt (pun intended) that they needed.

Without the lightening delay, I think Elmhurst had the momentum to pull off the upset.

[79jaybird]

CardinalAlum/NCF- I was not at the EC/NC game so I cannot comment first hand.   Based off of your comments then credit NC staff for motivating the Cards and the players for putting it in gear then. 

[iwu70]

Agree that the WC-IWU game will give us an idea how good these teams are, how they respond to a very different level of opponent, of challenge on both sides of the ball. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see three teams go 6-1 in the conference this year.  All three are excellent teams with a lot of weapons. 

As a Titan fan, I've been pleasantly surprised by the stronger run game, quite good special teams play, better kicking, and consistency of the O, esp. the Titan receivers. The corps of receivers is really good, deep.   Need improvement on punt returns for sure.  Not surprised that the Titans have one of the better Ds in the league, as has been the case for some years.  Devonte Jones having a great year so far and Gallik has been as good, experienced and accurate as expected.  Playing WC and NCC at home has to help -- but I rate the game with WC basically a toss-up game.  First big match-up game of top teams of the CCIW season. 

Of course, gotta beat Carthage first and make the long road trip up to Kenosha.  One game at a time, then the big games will come.

Any thoughts out there on WC, what has been surprising to WC fans? -- both good and bad -- for the WC team this year?

IWU70

[USee]

Not disagreeing with anything - just chucking a few more thoughts/reactions out there.

The same could be said for most of the North Region by the way. Mt Union's opponents are 6-19 right now but we can be pretty sure they are good. Wabash's opponents are 11-16, Wittenberg's are 13-16, Heidleberg's foes are 3-23 yet we all assume they are good teams because of their margin's of relative domination.

I think that's kind natural early in the season.  One thing I keep in mind when looking at "opponents records" early in the season is that an undefeated team has naturally contributed several of the L's.  Mount Union's opponents are 6-19, but they're 6-14 against non-Mount opponents.  Wabash's opponents are 11-16, but 11-11 against non-Wabash opponents, and so forth.  I know it all more or less evens out when comparing undefeated teams to one another since they all have that same quirk, but I still think it's worth noting early in the season because sometimes people throw that number out there with no context (i.e. Mount Union's opponents are 6-19! They haven't played anybody!).

Franklin is widely assumed to be the 2nd best team in the region because they LOST close games to 2 teams that are 5-0 and 5-2 respectively. It's a crazy system we live in.

I know you're not disagreeing with this train of thought re: Franklin, but one additional piece worth noting here - that "5-2" team they lost to is an FCS team that utterly demolished one of the other presumed "good" teams a week before.  I don't know what would happen if Franklin and Witt shared the field but I do think that has to be considered a valuable piece of information.

All of this simply means that when Wheaton and IWU square off a week from Saturday (not that anyone is looking ahead) the best teams either of them will have played is each other.

Now this gets to an exciting final point: in weeks 9-10-11 and the playoffs, we get a lot of this type of game where both teams are playing their toughest opponent yet.  I checked out the schedules for Week 10 and 11 nationally and nearly had to be restrained.  Week 11 has at least three games that will have major pool A/C implications (for BOTH teams) involving realistic contenders to make a deep playoff run (i.e. not like Johns Hopkins demolishing McDaniel to officially win their Pool A bid).  Depending on the next few weeks in the MIAC, Bethel vs. St. John's could affect the playoff hopes of 4 or more teams.  Same could be said for Mount vs. John Carroll (pending the Mount-Berg and Berg-Carroll results).

Re: "early in the season", I don't think 5 games in is early anymore. I think its by definition mid-season at least. Many of these teams may not face anyone good until roujnd 2 of the playoffs, but your point is well taken.

RE: Witt/Franklin, totally agree it's good info and I agree with the implicit conclusion. I just used the example for a different reason. But that data helps separate the field.

RE: End of the season is backloaded with huge games. Wheaton v NCC is at least second to last week and the CCIW race should be decided but OAC, MIAC, WIAC and a few others all have big big games in the last week.

As far as John Carroll, they are a team that has been impressive to me and probably underrated. Heidleberg's opponents are 3-23 but JCU has beaten 3 teams with winning records and only given up 2 TD's in 5 games with 3 shutouts.

[USee]

Agree that the WC-IWU game will give us an idea how good these teams are, how they respond to a very different level of opponent, of challenge on both sides of the ball. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see three teams go 6-1 in the conference this year.  All three are excellent teams with a lot of weapons. 

As a Titan fan, I've been pleasantly surprised by the stronger run game, quite good special teams play, better kicking, and consistency of the O, esp. the Titan receivers. The corps of receivers is really good, deep.   Need improvement on punt returns for sure.  Not surprised that the Titans have one of the better Ds in the league, as has been the case for some years.  Devonte Jones having a great year so far and Gallik has been as good, experienced and accurate as expected.  Playing WC and NCC at home has to help -- but I rate the game with WC basically a toss-up game.  First big match-up game of top teams of the CCIW season. 

Of course, gotta beat Carthage first and make the long road trip up to Kenosha.  One game at a time, then the big games will come.

Any thoughts out there on WC, what has been surprising to WC fans? -- both good and bad -- for the WC team this year?

IWU70

I think the emergence of Devonte Jones is the biggest single development for IWU. He is a game changer and has a ridiculous stat line so far this season. Early in the year IWU fans were worried about the run game with the issues of Stinde but that has been a strength with DJ. He also has provided electricity to the return game for the Titans. With their early season injuries on defense and the reliability of Stinde in question, DJ has stabilized the ship in Bloomington and provided a huge threat to opposing teams that didn't exist last year.

As far as Wheaton, my biggest surprise has been the dominant play of the defense. In past years I have seen teams get their yards and the Wheaton D has been pretty good in the redzone keeping people out of the endzone. This year they lead the league in defensive scoring and yards per play, two stat lines of dominant defenses. They aren't letting teams across the 50 or into the redzone, they lead the league in redzone appearances by opposing offenses. All that while generating the fewest total takeaways of any team in the league, which leads to my dissapointments. They need more turnovers (and sacks). Good teams are going to complete passes and get first downs. Without momentum changing plays it's tougher to keep you defense on the field and playing their best.

The offense has been missing the game breaking receiver. You can't replace Hiben, but Roberts has (sort of) misfired mainly because of inconsistency with the receiving corps. OLine has played well and the running game has been very effective so far. Roberts is arguably the best playmaking QB in the league and if we can get a receiver or two to emerge, he will have the full package again.

[blue_jays]

Agree that the WC-IWU game will give us an idea how good these teams are, how they respond to a very different level of opponent, of challenge on both sides of the ball. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see three teams go 6-1 in the conference this year.  All three are excellent teams with a lot of weapons. 

As a Titan fan, I've been pleasantly surprised by the stronger run game, quite good special teams play, better kicking, and consistency of the O, esp. the Titan receivers. The corps of receivers is really good, deep.   Need improvement on punt returns for sure.  Not surprised that the Titans have one of the better Ds in the league, as has been the case for some years.  Devonte Jones having a great year so far and Gallik has been as good, experienced and accurate as expected.  Playing WC and NCC at home has to help -- but I rate the game with WC basically a toss-up game.  First big match-up game of top teams of the CCIW season. 

Of course, gotta beat Carthage first and make the long road trip up to Kenosha.  One game at a time, then the big games will come.

Any thoughts out there on WC, what has been surprising to WC fans? -- both good and bad -- for the WC team this year?

IWU70

The Thunder are not putting up enough points lately and the lack of experience at WR is hurting Roberts. They were wins, but the margins of victory over Augie and Carthage are concerning (i.e. should have been big blowouts). The defense is looking real good, but Wheaton doesn't play well in Bloomington. That IWU game smells like a loss.

[Gregory Sager]

This week features Wheaton v Elmhurst and Augustana v Millikin as the only real games of intrigue

I'm not sure that EC @ WC qualifies as a "game of intrigue". I've watched both teams a couple of times, and I haven't really seen any indication that Elmhurst can hang with Wheaton, regardless of all of the hand-wringing of Wheaton fans about their team's receiver corps.

Elmhurst has scored a grand total of 38 points in its last four games, all of which were losses, with the 17 points it managed against Augie last Saturday being the high total over that span of games. The 'jays have averaged about 250 yards of total offense in those four losses. The only time that the Elmhurst offense has looked sharp in 2013 was when it opened the season against a Loras defense that is the football equivalent of wet tissue paper.

Given that, plus the excellence of the Wheaton D, Elmhurst is going to be hard-pressed to find a way to put any points on the scoreboard at McCully Stadium on Saturday.

Elmhurst needs to go into the McCully not with the mindset of win or loss, rather focus on some consistency and some gel.  We haven't played well @ McCully in a long time.  I can recall some early 00's games where turnovers and field position heavily favored Wheaton and the game was over virtually after 1 quarter. 

On the flipside- I wouldn't take Elmhurst too lightly and overlook this game (awaiting IWU).

I disagree.  I actually think Elmhurst played a very good first half of football against NCC.   The lightning delay zapped all of Elmhurst's momentum and gave the Cards the jolt (pun intended) that they needed.   

CardinalAlum, I can't figure out why you bolded 79jb's comment about Elmhurst not playing well at McCully and then replied with a reference to Elmhurst's performance at home against North Central. Did I miss the memo about the Bluejays moving their home games from Langhorst Field to McCully Stadium?

[79jaybird]

Thank you Greg- Yes, my original thoughts were focused on this weekend's EC/WC matchup.  IMO, Elmhurst is looking for some foundation offensively after last year's losses and to be more concerned with consistency vs. Thunder not the W or L end result.   Plus, McCully has not been friendly to Elmhurst similar to Bloomington. 

[Gregory Sager]

Just for giggles, here's what Ken Massey's HAL 9000 supercomputer currently has to say about CCIW football, vis-a-vis where our teams rank among the 245 football teams in D3:

  11. North Central
  19. Wheaton
  41. Illinois Wesleyan
  84. Augustana
134. Elmhurst
150. Carthage
161. Millikin
177. North Park

Massey projections for Saturday's games:

North Central 45, North Park 6 (100% probability of a NCC win)
Wheaton 35, Elmhurst 7 (99% probability of a WC win)
Illinois Wesleyan 24, Carthage 7 (90% probability of an IWU win)
Augustana 34, Millikin 24 (78% probability of an AC win)

Massey currently has Wheaton beating Illinois Wesleyan in Week 8, 27-21 (67% probability), North Central beating Illinois Wesleyan in Week 9, 31-17 (85% probability), and North Central beating Wheaton for the CCIW title and the Little Brass Bell in Week 10, 31-27 (64% probability).

[CardinalAlum]

Thank you Greg- Yes, my original thoughts were focused on this weekend's EC/WC matchup.  IMO, Elmhurst is looking for some foundation offensively after last year's losses and to be more concerned with consistency vs. Thunder not the W or L end result.   Plus, McCully has not been friendly to Elmhurst similar to Bloomington.

My bad.  Reading is a skill I haven't quite mastered!  You da man, GS!