FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[kiko]

What I think that you and perhaps some of the other Cardinals fans are forgetting, kiko, is that North Central doesn't exist in a vacuum as far as this league is concerned. There's seven other teams in this circuit, and, as a whole, they've looked very ordinary thus far. And I don't mean ordinary by CCIW standards; I mean ordinary by overall D3 standards. As I said yesterday, the CCIW went 12-12 in non-conference play. This is the worst mark that the league has forged since 1997, when the CCIW went a collective 5-11 and had no post-season participant (the playoff field only consisted of 16 teams back then). Every team in the league has lost at least once except for Wheaton, and Wheaton's definitely shown feet of clay by usual Top Three standards in its three rather pedestrian wins. For all of the talk about the MIAA being an inferior league -- you yourself were the one who pointed out that the CCIW gains nothing from the newly-instituted CCIW/MIAA crossover -- the MIAA actually beat the CCIW in the crossover, four wins to three.

This might be the perfect year for NCC to be down a notch while still keeping the consecutive-CCIW-championships skein going. Of course, I fully expect NCC to be a much better team in November than it is right now.

I think you are reading a bit much into what I do and don't think.

Clearly this has been a down year for the conference, which is a whole 'nother concern.  And I try to be gentle on this forum about the fact that, even in better times for the conference in aggregate, there is a massive chasm in talent and likelihood of victory when the Cardinals play some of the conference's strugglers.   Nobody needs to come to this board and see their team dismissed as a speed bump by supporters of a program that is, in recent years, in the midst of a very strong run.  But there obviously are teams for whom that shoe would fit.

But I'm not willing to paint all seven conference opponents with the same brush.  Am I losing sleep over the Millikins of the world?  Probably not.  But just because the conference in total is down doesn't mean there aren't teams that can beat what appeared to be a very vulnerable unit.  And we all know that if you have two losses and are on the outside looking in after the Pool 'A' berths are doled out, then you should feel really uncomfortable.  Will they be fine?  Maybe, and I hope so.  Their track record in the conference of late has been very good.  But I also know that this isn't a slate of seven consecutive gimmes coming up over the next month and a half.

[Kovo]

What I think that you and perhaps some of the other Cardinals fans are forgetting, kiko, is that North Central doesn't exist in a vacuum as far as this league is concerned. There's seven other teams in this circuit, and, as a whole, they've looked very ordinary thus far. And I don't mean ordinary by CCIW standards; I mean ordinary by overall D3 standards. As I said yesterday, the CCIW went 12-12 in non-conference play. This is the worst mark that the league has forged since 1997, when the CCIW went a collective 5-11 and had no post-season participant (the playoff field only consisted of 16 teams back then). Every team in the league has lost at least once except for Wheaton, and Wheaton's definitely shown feet of clay by usual Top Three standards in its three rather pedestrian wins. For all of the talk about the MIAA being an inferior league -- you yourself were the one who pointed out that the CCIW gains nothing from the newly-instituted CCIW/MIAA crossover -- the MIAA actually beat the CCIW in the crossover, four wins to three.

This might be the perfect year for NCC to be down a notch while still keeping the consecutive-CCIW-championships skein going. Of course, I fully expect NCC to be a much better team in November than it is right now.

I think you are reading a bit much into what I do and don't think.

Clearly this has been a down year for the conference, which is a whole 'nother concern.  And I try to be gentle on this forum about the fact that, even in better times for the conference in aggregate, there is a massive chasm in talent and likelihood of victory when the Cardinals play some of the conference's strugglers.   Nobody needs to come to this board and see their team dismissed as a speed bump by supporters of a program that is, in recent years, in the midst of a very strong run.  But there obviously are teams for whom that shoe would fit.

But I'm not willing to paint all seven conference opponents with the same brush.  Am I losing sleep over the Millikins of the world?  Probably not.  But just because the conference in total is down doesn't mean there aren't teams that can beat what appeared to be a very vulnerable unit.  And we all know that if you have two losses and are on the outside looking in after the Pool 'A' berths are doled out, then you should feel really uncomfortable.  Will they be fine?  Maybe, and I hope so.  Their track record in the conference of late has been very good.  But I also know that this isn't a slate of seven consecutive gimmes coming up over the next month and a half.

And, it never is.  But here is a reality.  NCC has played a difficult nonconference schedule the past few years.  As a result the Cards have dropped a nonconference game in four of the past six seasons.  So what does that mean?  Apparently, not much in terms of the CCIW schedule. 

[79jaybird]

 Augie used to play the hardest non conference slate (Central, UWP, etc.) whereas Elmhurst, NC, and Carthage tended to play creampuffs like Benedictine.  This allowed Augie to taste the better teams in D-III scope,  and had them ready for the CCIW portion of the schedule.   In a 8 school league there is usually 2-3 strong teams,  1-2 middle of the road teams, and then 1-2 poor teams.  My point here is that a 500 or so record of the conference in non-conf action,  may mean that the CCIW is weaker on a national scale this year, but there are still some great teams within the CCIW that would do fairly well in the national tournament.  They may not be Sweet 16 or Elite 8 caliber yet,  but I would take a CCIW #1 and #2 to make it to the second round.

[79jaybird]

In following up Kovo's last point,  I remember talking to Elmhurst HC Tom Journell, who really hoped to schedule a WIAC team on the Jays schedule.  Not looking at W or L of the contest, but to allow Elmhurst to get a look at what a quality program is, as setting a goal.  Elmhurst as a group wasn't quite ready for a WIAC team and (if memory serves) they had just signed on with Olivet.  I was very happy to see Benedictine and Concordia (IL) taken off the schedule because those (traditionally weaker) schools did nothing to help EC come CCIW time.

[wally_wabash]

Interesting theory...I didn't consider that. Winning conference seems to be most team's #1 priority (unless you're Mount Union  ). After that then the second season begins.

I suppose the only downside is, NCC will have to go on the road come playoff time...if everything works out for them.

Such a risky proposition. You have no room for error in conference play now, unless UWSP surprises and wins the WIAC)...and not only that but, as you said, you put yourself on the road in the playoffs.

This is probably true, but you never know.  Every committee is different.  Last year Franklin got a home game for reasons that brushed aside logic.  Last year's committee loved them a team that played a big name, even if they got beat.  I think whether or not North Central goes on the road on the first weekend depends on 1) the mood of this year's selection committee and 2) what happens with Platteville and Stevens Point with regard to the regional rankings in November.  That's going to be a crowded house in the West rankings (Whitewater, Wartburg, Bethel, St. Thomas, St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead, Linfield, PLU...that's eight and I haven't even touched California or the MWC) and it's maybe tough to see both of them being in there at the end of the year- but if they both are in there at the end of the year I could see a 9-1 North Central team getting a home game and maybe even seeded ahead of a 10-0 (or 9-0 if it's Witt and we forget they played Butler) NCAC team.

Again, I think that you're leaving out the mediocrity of the CCIW as part of your calculation. The CCIW may have the rep of a power conference, but it decidedly has not been one this year. And it isn't as though everyone has scheduled the likes of UWW, Mount Union, Linfield, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and Wesley, either. The UWSP team that beat North Central two days ago may be the best team that any CCIW squad has faced in September. Other than that, teams like Alma, Loras, and Trine have had their way against CCIW teams. St. Norbert, which had lost seven straight non-conference games, snapped that streak at Keller Field in Kenosha on opening day. I think it's just as likely that the committee might look at the OWP of a 9-1 North Central team and say, "Where's the proof that this particular team deserves a first-round home game?"

It will be interesting to see how the SOS shakes out once we get a few more weeks into the season here, but I think North Central has a legit shot at a home game because I can't see a scenario where at least one other CCIW team doesn't wind up in the regional rankings (who would have lost to NCC in our NCC is 9-1 hypothetical) and you would think either UWP or UWSP will wind up in those rankings as well.  And St. Norbert might not end up in the rankings in the West, but they seem like a safe bet to post a very good winning percentage which will push NCC up the SOS list.  A high SOS ranking and a plethora of (mostly) positive results against RROs may be enough to convince a committee that the Cardinals earned that home game over an undefeated NCAC team (although Wabash's win against Hampden-Sydney is a nice safeguard so long as our gentlemanly friends from the south keep winning) or -gasp- Rose-Hulman. 

Just tossing that out as a possibility.  Some committees like SOS (whether we're measuring it appropriately or not), some committees prefer win percentage.  Some committees like both but at different times during the selection/seeding process.  The main thing is that I don't think that one loss automatically dooms North Central to repeat their 2012 West coast experience or even to a first round road game at all. 

[USee]

What I think that you and perhaps some of the other Cardinals fans are forgetting, kiko, is that North Central doesn't exist in a vacuum as far as this league is concerned. There's seven other teams in this circuit, and, as a whole, they've looked very ordinary thus far. And I don't mean ordinary by CCIW standards; I mean ordinary by overall D3 standards. As I said yesterday, the CCIW went 12-12 in non-conference play. This is the worst mark that the league has forged since 1997, when the CCIW went a collective 5-11 and had no post-season participant (the playoff field only consisted of 16 teams back then). Every team in the league has lost at least once except for Wheaton, and Wheaton's definitely shown feet of clay by usual Top Three standards in its three rather pedestrian wins. For all of the talk about the MIAA being an inferior league -- you yourself were the one who pointed out that the CCIW gains nothing from the newly-instituted CCIW/MIAA crossover -- the MIAA actually beat the CCIW in the crossover, four wins to three.

This might be the perfect year for NCC to be down a notch while still keeping the consecutive-CCIW-championships skein going. Of course, I fully expect NCC to be a much better team in November than it is right now.

I am not sure I agree with this. I think Wheaton is a top 20 team and has played like it. They were never really threatened (other than a poorly timed decision to sit several defensive starters the 2nd half vs Coe and then reinsert them to save the day) in their 3 wins, they played very well defensively and haven't turned the ball over. I think they are close to, if not at, a level of play that competes for a CCIW conference title most years. They have an all american LB who is POY candidate, are #1 or #2 in most major statistical categories, and lead the conference by far in sacks at 15 through 3 games (next best is 9). While they have their warts, Wheaton is where I would expect them to be at this point in the year and certainly not any different than any year in recent memory. They also happen to be the only team that is still undefeated.

As far as their potential I would be surprised, barring key injuries, if they were any worse than 9-1 and a playoff participant this year. And if they make it to the playoffs I would expect at least a 2nd round appearance with the possibility of a deeper run than that.

[79jaybird]

Agree 100% Usee  Good analysis.   Mike Swider is one of the strongest recruiters around and has built up a level of consistency much like Thorne (currently) and Augie (not now, but through the years).

[USee]

In addition, while I didn't expect IWU and NCC to lose, they both lost on the road in close games to teams that are going to be in the top 3rd of their conferences. They aren't really "bad" losses, more like surprising losses. I think IWU is playing a freshman at QB and many new faces on offense. On the road against a good team is the place I would expect them to struggle. Their toughest games are @Wheaton and @NCC and they get to have another 3-4 games of experience before then so I would think they will compete with both those teams. NCC has to figure out their passing game. They won't beat many good teams turning it over 4+ times and being one-dimensional, let alone giving up 34 pts. But I expect them to be there at the end.

Whomever the CCIW sends to the NCAA playoffs (and it could easily be 2 teams this year) will do just fine. The league is down overall (losing 4 games to the MIAA is a bad thing) but the top 3 are not very far off from what we have come to expect in my opinion.

[Gregory Sager]

What I think that you and perhaps some of the other Cardinals fans are forgetting, kiko, is that North Central doesn't exist in a vacuum as far as this league is concerned. There's seven other teams in this circuit, and, as a whole, they've looked very ordinary thus far. And I don't mean ordinary by CCIW standards; I mean ordinary by overall D3 standards. As I said yesterday, the CCIW went 12-12 in non-conference play. This is the worst mark that the league has forged since 1997, when the CCIW went a collective 5-11 and had no post-season participant (the playoff field only consisted of 16 teams back then). Every team in the league has lost at least once except for Wheaton, and Wheaton's definitely shown feet of clay by usual Top Three standards in its three rather pedestrian wins. For all of the talk about the MIAA being an inferior league -- you yourself were the one who pointed out that the CCIW gains nothing from the newly-instituted CCIW/MIAA crossover -- the MIAA actually beat the CCIW in the crossover, four wins to three.

This might be the perfect year for NCC to be down a notch while still keeping the consecutive-CCIW-championships skein going. Of course, I fully expect NCC to be a much better team in November than it is right now.

I think you are reading a bit much into what I do and don't think.

Clearly this has been a down year for the conference, which is a whole 'nother concern.  And I try to be gentle on this forum about the fact that, even in better times for the conference in aggregate, there is a massive chasm in talent and likelihood of victory when the Cardinals play some of the conference's strugglers.   Nobody needs to come to this board and see their team dismissed as a speed bump by supporters of a program that is, in recent years, in the midst of a very strong run.  But there obviously are teams for whom that shoe would fit.

My apologies for making you go all ungentlemanly like that.

But I'm not willing to paint all seven conference opponents with the same brush.  Am I losing sleep over the Millikins of the world?  Probably not.  But just because the conference in total is down doesn't mean there aren't teams that can beat what appeared to be a very vulnerable unit.  And we all know that if you have two losses and are on the outside looking in after the Pool 'A' berths are doled out, then you should feel really uncomfortable.  Will they be fine?  Maybe, and I hope so.  Their track record in the conference of late has been very good.  But I also know that this isn't a slate of seven consecutive gimmes coming up over the next month and a half.

I wasn't implying that. What I was saying was that, even if NCC is down a notch, everyone else appears at least initially to be in the same boat. North Central never seems to have an easy time of it against Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton, and I don't think that the Cardinals will have an easy time of it against those two teams this year, either. The games may be just as fierce, but the caliber of play on both sides might be down a bit from past year. Of course, it's all just speculation at this point, because it's also possible that one or more of those teams (I wouldn't be surprised if it's all three) could make a significant bump up in efficiency on one or both sides of the ball over the next few weeks.

It will be interesting to see how the SOS shakes out once we get a few more weeks into the season here, but I think North Central has a legit shot at a home game because I can't see a scenario where at least one other CCIW team doesn't wind up in the regional rankings (who would have lost to NCC in our NCC is 9-1 hypothetical)

Agreed, because (in keeping with what I've said in response to kiko) I think it's unlikely that Illinois Wesleyan or Wheaton will drop a game to one of the lower five. The winner of IWU @ WC would thus end up regionally ranked, despite losing to NCC.

and you would think either UWP or UWSP will wind up in those rankings as well.

You would? USee's written off UWP as a mere bagatelle that can't stop the run, and our friends from up north in l'etat de fromage are not ready to anoint UWSP as a contender yet, upset over NCC notwithstanding.

And St. Norbert might not end up in the rankings in the West, but they seem like a safe bet to post a very good winning percentage which will push NCC up the SOS list.  A high SOS ranking

I'm not so sure that North Central's strength of schedule is going to be all that and a bag of chips. I agree that the win over St. Norbert will come in handy, but UWP and UWSP don't appear to be sure bets just yet to post gaudy records, and, as I said, the collective OWP that North Central will derive from its fellow CCIW teams -- which constitutes 70% of NCC's strength of schedule, and is usually a serious asset in these discussions -- is a dud for 2014.

and a plethora of (mostly) positive results against RROs

"Plethora"? North Central's RROs could be as few as one team when it's all said and done, and one team doesn't constitute a plethora. (I do think it'll end up being two teams. That's my prediction.)

may be enough to convince a committee that the Cardinals earned that home game over an undefeated NCAC team (although Wabash's win against Hampden-Sydney is a nice safeguard so long as our gentlemanly friends from the south keep winning) or -gasp- Rose-Hulman. 

Just tossing that out as a possibility.  Some committees like SOS (whether we're measuring it appropriately or not), some committees prefer win percentage.  Some committees like both but at different times during the selection/seeding process.  The main thing is that I don't think that one loss automatically dooms North Central to repeat their 2012 West coast experience or even to a first round road game at all. 

I'm not saying that a home playoff game is out of the question for North Central this year. All I'm saying is that you should've taken the CCIW's lackluster non-con performance into consideration in your first post, because there's a good chance that it'll hamper the odds of a 9-1 NCC team getting a playoff game at Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium this season.

What I think that you and perhaps some of the other Cardinals fans are forgetting, kiko, is that North Central doesn't exist in a vacuum as far as this league is concerned. There's seven other teams in this circuit, and, as a whole, they've looked very ordinary thus far. And I don't mean ordinary by CCIW standards; I mean ordinary by overall D3 standards. As I said yesterday, the CCIW went 12-12 in non-conference play. This is the worst mark that the league has forged since 1997, when the CCIW went a collective 5-11 and had no post-season participant (the playoff field only consisted of 16 teams back then). Every team in the league has lost at least once except for Wheaton, and Wheaton's definitely shown feet of clay by usual Top Three standards in its three rather pedestrian wins. For all of the talk about the MIAA being an inferior league -- you yourself were the one who pointed out that the CCIW gains nothing from the newly-instituted CCIW/MIAA crossover -- the MIAA actually beat the CCIW in the crossover, four wins to three.

This might be the perfect year for NCC to be down a notch while still keeping the consecutive-CCIW-championships skein going. Of course, I fully expect NCC to be a much better team in November than it is right now.

I am not sure I agree with this. I think Wheaton is a top 20 team and has played like it. They were never really threatened (other than a poorly timed decision to sit several defensive starters the 2nd half vs Coe and then reinsert them to save the day) in their 3 wins, they played very well defensively and haven't turned the ball over. I think they are close to, if not at, a level of play that competes for a CCIW conference title most years. They have an all american LB who is POY candidate, are #1 or #2 in most major statistical categories, and lead the conference by far in sacks at 15 through 3 games (next best is 9). While they have their warts, Wheaton is where I would expect them to be at this point in the year and certainly not any different than any year in recent memory. They also happen to be the only team that is still undefeated.

As far as their potential I would be surprised, barring key injuries, if they were any worse than 9-1 and a playoff participant this year. And if they make it to the playoffs I would expect at least a 2nd round appearance with the possibility of a deeper run than that.

I'm very surprised by this post, given your critical comments about your team to date. Looks like I've smoked out your Holtzing tendencies.

Of course, I'll certainly take your word for it. You've seen Wheaton, and I haven't. But don't be shocked if this room's regular posters put this comment:

I would be surprised, barring key injuries, if they were any worse than 9-1 and a playoff participant this year.

... in their back pockets and hang on to it for future reference when the NCC @ WC and IWU @ WC games come up.

In addition, while I didn't expect IWU and NCC to lose, they both lost on the road in close games to teams that are going to be in the top 3rd of their conferences. They aren't really "bad" losses, more like surprising losses.

This surprises me a bit, given your disparagement of Wesleyan's loss to Simpson in the North Region Fan Poll room as a means to explain your ranking of Franklin over the Titans.

I think IWU is playing a freshman at QB and many new faces on offense. On the road against a good team is the place I would expect them to struggle. Their toughest games are @Wheaton and @NCC and they get to have another 3-4 games of experience before then so I would think they will compete with both those teams. NCC has to figure out their passing game. They won't beat many good teams turning it over 4+ times and being one-dimensional, let alone giving up 34 pts. But I expect them to be there at the end.

I pretty much agree with all of this, although I'm still trying to reconcile your statements in the two rooms concerning Simpson.

Whomever the CCIW sends to the NCAA playoffs (and it could easily be 2 teams this year) will do just fine. The league is down overall (losing 4 games to the MIAA is a bad thing) but the top 3 are not very far off from what we have come to expect in my opinion.

I'm in wait-and-see mode concerning both the historically relative caliber of the top three and the "it could easily be two teams this year" thing, but I'm certainly not arguing against either one at this point. I simply want to see more final scores before I commit myself to anything concerning November (aside from the prediction that NCC will have faced two RROs, that is).

[USee]

Different contexts Greg.  I ranked Franklin ahead of IWU at the bottom of my North Region poll as I view them as fairly interchangeable despite the HTH.  See my comments on National fan poll.  I think IWU is the 3rd best team in the conference but it wouldn't surprise me if they prove me wrong.  I am always down on my own team as I know where they need to be to beat NCC and make a run in the post season.  They aren't there yet but they weren't there in week 4 of any other season either.  Wheaton has QB issues, lack a serious playmaker on offense and can't snap the ball on FG attempts but they play good defense, don't turn it over and are pretty good up front on both sides.  Those positives usually cover a lot of warts and lead to wins.  In past years they just weren't good enough up front.  This year I think they might be. I don't see any incongruous comments here.

[emma17]

Regarding Coach Thorne retirement timing.
I've no idea what the facts are as to the timing, though I do see positives.
After a tough loss and entering CCIW play it could create a lot of positive emotion to make this a special year for the coach.
It could also allow for a more active role from his son in some of the HC responsibilities, including dealing w recruits that come to visit.
I do wish him the best this season.

[wally_wabash]

And St. Norbert might not end up in the rankings in the West, but they seem like a safe bet to post a very good winning percentage which will push NCC up the SOS list.  A high SOS ranking

I'm not so sure that North Central's strength of schedule is going to be all that and a bag of chips. I agree that the win over St. Norbert will come in handy, but UWP and UWSP don't appear to be sure bets just yet to post gaudy records, and, as I said, the collective OWP that North Central will derive from its fellow CCIW teams -- which constitutes 70% of NCC's strength of schedule, and is usually a serious asset in these discussions -- is a dud for 2014.

Just to clarify I have, on a very cursory level, thought about the CCIW's non-league record.  If my math is correct, the CCIW was 12-12 in non-league play this year and 14-10 last year.  Just two games worth of difference, which will matter but won't be the SOS drag that I think you think it might be.  The difference is going to come from the other games.  Last year North Central played non-league opponents that finished 3-7, 5-5, and 4-6.  12-18 (12-15 minus the results with North Central) is pretty poor and the result was a North Central SOS of .501 (good for just 112th on the list).  North Central's opponents this year are already 7-2 (6-0 minus results with North Central) and well on their way to surpassing the contribution to SOS that last year's opponents did.  North Central is going to wind up with a better SOS (by quite a bit I think) this year than they did last.  I can't see those three teams losing five league games apiece.  That's just not happening. 

and a plethora of (mostly) positive results against RROs

"Plethora"? North Central's RROs could be as few as one team when it's all said and done, and one team doesn't constitute a plethora. (I do think it'll end up being two teams. That's my prediction.)

Could be just one.  Could be three, which would be a plethora given our ten game sample size.  There aren't a lot of teams that get three RRO results.  Depending on what else happens around the region, I think there's a chance that all three of the pertinent CCIW teams could be ranked.  The team in danger is going to be the loser of Wheaton/IWU.  The timing of that game makes the loser at risk of falling out and not having enough time to get back in.  Unless Wheaton beats North Central in which case they could absorb the loss and still be safely in the regional top ten. 

As for the WIACs, we had three WIAC teams in the top five of the West rankings last year (who knows where the loser of week 11's Platteville/Oshkosh game went to, but probably not out of the top ten), so it isn't unheard of for Whitewater plus two to be ranked over there.  So maybe you wind up with four RROs!  Two is a safe prediction.  Just for fun, I'll say three and we'll check back in on this in a month.   

[Gregory Sager]

And St. Norbert might not end up in the rankings in the West, but they seem like a safe bet to post a very good winning percentage which will push NCC up the SOS list.  A high SOS ranking

I'm not so sure that North Central's strength of schedule is going to be all that and a bag of chips. I agree that the win over St. Norbert will come in handy, but UWP and UWSP don't appear to be sure bets just yet to post gaudy records, and, as I said, the collective OWP that North Central will derive from its fellow CCIW teams -- which constitutes 70% of NCC's strength of schedule, and is usually a serious asset in these discussions -- is a dud for 2014.

Just to clarify I have, on a very cursory level, thought about the CCIW's non-league record.  If my math is correct, the CCIW was 12-12 in non-league play this year and 14-10 last year.  Just two games worth of difference, which will matter but won't be the SOS drag that I think you think it might be.

That's not germane, however, since NCC went 10-0 last year. This discussion is about the feasibility of a 9-1 North Central team getting a first-round home game.

There's been two previous occasions in which the Cardinals were 9-1 going into the playoffs, 2005 and 2011. In 2005 the CCIW went a sparkling 21-3 in non-con play, which meant that North Central had what must've been a ridiculously high OWP. Even though the Cards finished second that season to Augie, they still hosted a first-round game, no doubt based upon that strength of schedule (they lost at Benedetti-Wehrli to Capital, 21-19). In the 2011 season the league went 17-7 in non-con play. Similar to what we're projecting here, North Central dropped a non-con game (@ Redlands) and then ran the table in CCIW play. And the Cardinals did get a home game that year, hosting and beating Dubuque and moving on to the second-round game in which, as you well know, they went to Crawfordsville and lost to your Diminutive Colossi in the now-famous 29-28 comeback game that featured the weird two-point conversion pass in the final minute. But, again, that was on the heels of a 17-7 CCIW performance, not a 12-12 one.

[wally_wabash]

And St. Norbert might not end up in the rankings in the West, but they seem like a safe bet to post a very good winning percentage which will push NCC up the SOS list.  A high SOS ranking

I'm not so sure that North Central's strength of schedule is going to be all that and a bag of chips. I agree that the win over St. Norbert will come in handy, but UWP and UWSP don't appear to be sure bets just yet to post gaudy records, and, as I said, the collective OWP that North Central will derive from its fellow CCIW teams -- which constitutes 70% of NCC's strength of schedule, and is usually a serious asset in these discussions -- is a dud for 2014.

Just to clarify I have, on a very cursory level, thought about the CCIW's non-league record.  If my math is correct, the CCIW was 12-12 in non-league play this year and 14-10 last year.  Just two games worth of difference, which will matter but won't be the SOS drag that I think you think it might be.

That's not germane, however, since NCC went 10-0 last year. This discussion is about the feasibility of a 9-1 North Central team getting a first-round home game.

There's been two previous occasions in which the Cardinals were 9-1 going into the playoffs, 2005 and 2011. In 2005 the CCIW went a sparkling 21-3 in non-con play, which meant that North Central had what must've been a ridiculously high OWP. Even though the Cards finished second that season to Augie, they still hosted a first-round game, no doubt based upon that strength of schedule (they lost at Benedetti-Wehrli to Capital, 21-19). In the 2011 season the league went 17-7 in non-con play. Similar to what we're projecting here, North Central dropped a non-con game (@ Redlands) and then ran the table in CCIW play. And the Cardinals did get a home game that year, hosting and beating Dubuque and moving on to the second-round game in which, as you well know, they went to Crawfordsville and lost to your Diminutive Colossi in the now-famous 29-28 comeback game that featured the weird two-point conversion pass in the final minute. But, again, that was on the heels of a 17-7 CCIW performance, not a 12-12 one.

I mentioned last year to use as a reference point to North Central's SOS and where we might be able to reasonably predict where it will wind up this year.  If they can get into the 0.530 range (I think they can but to be sure I'll have to do some more math on that when I have a little more time) and carry something like a 1-1, 2-0, or 2-1 mark against RROs, I might even say that hosting a game is probable.  Franklin hosted on far less accomplishment than that last season. 

Thinking back to 2011, I was honestly a little shocked that Wabash was seeded higher than NCC.  That was a bad year for the NCAC (even by NCAC standards...Wabash and Witt were fine, not another team in the league finished over .500.  Yuck.).  DePauw was bad.  Chicago and WashU (our other non-league games) weren't good either.   But that just goes to show how much of this is determined by the whims of the committee.  If 2013 committee seeded the 2011 tournament, there's no way Wabash's 10-0 holds up against North Central's 9-1.  Those Little Giants were certainly just as good as those Cardinals, but the data from the regular seasons those two teams had were certainly very different. 

[79jaybird]

Looking at this weekend's Augie/Elmhurst matchup, I think this is a good measuring stick for Elmhurst.  Awhile back, I had mentioned Elmhurst is/was showing signs of the Carthage Dante Washington led team's rise & fall back to the middle/lower tier of the pack scenario.  I will be watching closely to see what Elmhurst is going to do with the new coaching regime and all.  Augie usually is 500 or better and a  perennially tough opponent.  If they come into Elmhurst and beat up pretty bad,  I will really worry about where Elmhurst is going.   If EC is able to compete and win,  then I feel more confident about the team still having a solid foundation to improve upon.