FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Certainly there have been huge problems elsewhere, but Warner's mono is nonetheless the leader.  If he had stayed healthy, I have little doubt they would be 5-3 rather than 3-5.

Even if we grant that for the sake of argument, does 5-3 really qualify as "a promising team"? The preseason speculation, as you yourself just intimated, was that your Titans were expected to be in the thick of the CCIW race and, at worst, a team that had a shot at a Pool C. But that doesn't jibe with your 5-3 speculation, because 5-3 is not the W-L mark of a team in the playoff hunt.

[Mr. Ypsi]

[quote author =Mr. Ypsi link=topic=4077.msg1622691#msg1622691 date=1415227316]
Certainly there have been huge problems elsewhere, but Warner's mono is nonetheless the leader.  If he had stayed healthy, I have little doubt they would be 5-3 rather than 3-5.

This certainly did not turn out to be the team that nearly everyone expected to battle Wheaton for second place.

You mean North Central? 
[/quote]

Another unexpected development!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Certainly there have been huge problems elsewhere, but Warner's mono is nonetheless the leader.  If he had stayed healthy, I have little doubt they would be 5-3 rather than 3-5.

Even if we grant that for the sake of argument, does 5-3 really qualify as "a promising team"? The preseason speculation, as you yourself just intimated, was that your Titans were expected to be in the thick of the CCIW race and, at worst, a team that had a shot at a Pool C. But that doesn't jibe with your 5-3 speculation, because 5-3 is not the W-L mark of a team in the playoff hunt.

As I said, this has been a disappointing season (a situation NPU can identify with) in many different ways.  At the start of the season, 7-1 would be the expected status currently, not 5-3, and certainly not 3-5.

[79jaybird]

As disappointing of a season it has been for IWU,  I think the flipside can be said for Elmhurst.  There have been many positive strides (some obvious and some more hidden) from Jays camp. 

[Gregory Sager]

Certainly there have been huge problems elsewhere, but Warner's mono is nonetheless the leader.  If he had stayed healthy, I have little doubt they would be 5-3 rather than 3-5.

Even if we grant that for the sake of argument, does 5-3 really qualify as "a promising team"? The preseason speculation, as you yourself just intimated, was that your Titans were expected to be in the thick of the CCIW race and, at worst, a team that had a shot at a Pool C. But that doesn't jibe with your 5-3 speculation, because 5-3 is not the W-L mark of a team in the playoff hunt.

As I said, this has been a disappointing season (a situation NPU can identify with)

I'm not really sure why you felt the need to take that shot at me. I didn't mean anything personal by bringing up IWU's performance. I'm simply maintaining that the quarterback position, although vital, is not the only element upon which a team's success or failure hinges. I have no dog in the hunt with regard to how the other seven teams fare relative to each other (although I'm not particularly thrilled that Wheaton is going to be the CCIW champion) -- but ... whatever.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sorry, Greg, but no shot intended.  I was just observing that IWU was not the only team having a disappointing season.

[iwu70]

Jaybird, I agree. EC has had a pretty good season.  IWU has been disappointing on a number of fronts and I share Greg's view that it goes beyond just the illnesses and injuries at the QB position.  Warner is going to be very very good, assuming he stays healthy in the future 3 seasons.  IWU D has to solve a number of issues.  WC could win by 3+ TDs this Saturday.  They are surely playing at a high level now, the class of the league, de-throwning NCC, which is no small feat.  I personally doubt NCC will get a tournament bid this season.

IWU70

[Gregory Sager]

Disappointment is relative, Chuck, and I'm not so sure that NPU is going to end up with a disappointing season. If the Vikings lose their last two games, I'll concede that the 2014 campaign will have fallen short of internal expectations. But you have to remember that what the guys in the gym basement offices at Foster & Kedzie were expecting from their team in terms of wins and losses was pretty limited this season. Perhaps some people outside of the NPU football program believed that the modest but significant breakthroughs that the Vikings made last season in Mike Conway's first go-round were automatically supposed to be expanded upon in terms of the 2014 record, but that was not the thinking within the program itself.

The reality is that the program had a couple of weak recruiting years, numberswise, in Scott Pethtel's final two seasons, the last one (the current juniors) in particular. Only eleven of the former head coach's recruits are left in the class of '14, and only nine are left in the class of '15. Attrition has had something to do with that, but the primary problem is that they were small classes to begin with. What success the Park had last year was mostly based upon a combination of a pretty solid senior class that had been recruited by Scott Pethtel and his staff plus an assortment of really talented newbies (especially the Conway brothers, Phil Pendleton, Alan Geneva, and Marquis Magwood) that the new coaching staff brought in with them.

The sophomores are a different problem. The 2012-13 recruiting cycle started late with Mike Conway's hire in January 2013, leading to a "we need as many warm bodies as we can find, wherever we can find them" mentality in recruiting during that truncated cycle. As everyone sort of expected would happen, the NPU coaching staff did strike upon some real finds with that approach -- and also a lot of guys who quickly fell by the wayside.

This year's freshman class, the first full-cycle recruiting class for the Conway regime, is both very large and very good. There's a whole bunch of guys in this freshman class, from Devin Childress to Chaun Maiava to Zach Smith to Nick French to Craig Butler to Leuatea Faiai and more, that any CCIW coach would love to have. A couple more classes of this size and caliber, combined with good retention (always a big "if" with North Park football) and we'll be talking about something that I have heretofore deemed an impossibility -- a winning NPU football season. But, right now, the freshmen are bearing the brunt of three classes above them that are, for differing reasons, undersized in terms of numbers. That's why the NPU coaching staff was very cautious -- as was I -- about this season's expectations. I would've been perfectly happy with another 3-7 campaign. The Vikings may not reach that point, but 2-8 is OK, too, especially since: a) the two wins would come in CCIW play, contrary to NPU's pattern in the past; and b) there would be at least three very close losses (CUW, Wash U, Augie) included in which NPU took the game right down to the wire before succumbing.

As kiko has said a couple of times in this room, NPU's progress may not be linear. This is why I agree with him. It's all a matter of recruiting, retention, and building up the program to the point where the Vikings can have a two-deep that consists of seasoned, CCIW-level veterans. NPU was never going to reach that point this season, no way, no how. So I don't view this season thus far as a disappointment, and neither does the North Park coaching staff. Would they have liked to pick up those wins over CUW, Wash U, and Augie? Sure, but losing close games is part of the price you pay for a roster that consists mostly of underclassmen.

If we're talking about a couple more years of the Park's languishing back in the two-to-three-wins category, then, yeah, I'll be as restive as anybody. But we're not at that point right now.

[79jaybird]

IWU70-My turn to agree with you.  I think this may be a year the CCIW gets only one entry into the big dance.   

[Kovo]

IWU70-My turn to agree with you.  I think this may be a year the CCIW gets only one entry into the big dance.   

Why?  If NCC wins out would an 8-2 (ok 8-1 D3 if they lose to Wabash) Whitt team with an SOS of 119 (currently) be so much more attractive to the Committee?  How about John Carroll if they lose to MU at 9-1 with a  current 179th SOS?!

I think that there is way to much football to be played to think that the CCIW only gets one team---without a doubt.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg, I know you're not big on forecasting, but what is your take on the NPU/Carthage game this Saturday?

[USee]

Figuring out IWU this year is a bit of a mystery. They did lose 32 seniors last year and we knew with only 3 OLineman returning and Artie Checchin as the sole skill player they may struggle on offense. But defense was supposed to be their moneyball card as the offense developed. No one would have predicted a freshman QB would generate 69 pts in the first two games. No one would have predicted they would give up 70 either. On Monday of week 3 I could have made a lot of money on the IWU over/under vs Simpson at 14. They have had some injuries (Tyrell Bolden, Connor Klein, Jack Warner) but some surprises too. Venhuizen is their best DL and Worley is still an AA caliber player. Luke Roth and Sean Garvey have been very consistent all year.

As you look at the statistics you will see some comparable numbers.
Total offense yds per play:
IWU 5.4
Wheaton 5.4

Total defense yds per play:
IWU 4.7
Wheaton 4.7

Rushing defense yds per carry:
IWU 3.6
Wheaton 3.7

Passing Defense yds per play:
IWU 6.2
Wheaton 5.9

Rushing offense
IWU 3.8
Wheaton 3.9

Turnover margin
IWU +5
Wheaton +4

If you dig deeper into the data you start to see discrepancies.

Time of possession:
IWU 28:04 (6th)
Wheaton 32:04 (2nd)

3rd Down conversion:
IWU 42% (3rd)
Wheaton 50%(1st)

Opponent 3rd Down:
IWU 44.2% (7th)
Wheaton 31.3%(1st)

As you dig into the data it is clear to me IWU struggles because they can't get off the field. I looked at Elmhurst and NCC stats and IWU gave up 3+ yds on 70% of the 1st downs in those two games. Elmhurst converted 73% of their 3rd downs and NCC converted 62%. IWU's defense had 3rd and 10+ just 1 time in those two games combined. They are giving up too many yards on 1st down. That turns into 3rd and manageable and their numbers there aren't good either. The time of possession data reflects the defense's inability to get stops. In Wheaton's last two games vs NCC and Elmhurst, they are converting 74% of their 3rd downs in large part because they have been getting 5+ yds on most first downs. If IWU wants to have a chance Saturday, they are going to have to be good on 1st down on both sides of the ball.

[USee]

IWU70-My turn to agree with you.  I think this may be a year the CCIW gets only one entry into the big dance.   

Why?  If NCC wins out would an 8-2 (ok 8-1 D3 if they lose to Wabash) Whitt team with an SOS of 119 (currently) be so much more attractive to the Committee?  How about John Carroll if they lose to MU at 9-1 with a  current 179th SOS?!

I think that there is way to much football to be played to think that the CCIW only gets one team---without a doubt.

It's highly unlikely an 8-2 NCC team will be ranked in the region ahead of any 1 loss teams. Their only chance is to have a 1 loss JCU and 1 loss Witt (or UMU/Wabash) get picked quickly and be on the board at the end. NCC fans are rooting for UW Oshkosh to lose to UW Platteville in week 11. If Platteville is on the board w 2 losses NCC is in good shape with the H2H. If UW Oshkosh is on the board, they beat UWSP and NCC lost to them and NCC would be dead. Either way it is looking more and more likely a 2 loss team will make the field.

[wally_wabash]

IWU70-My turn to agree with you.  I think this may be a year the CCIW gets only one entry into the big dance.   

Why?  If NCC wins out would an 8-2 (ok 8-1 D3 if they lose to Wabash) Whitt team with an SOS of 119 (currently) be so much more attractive to the Committee?  How about John Carroll if they lose to MU at 9-1 with a  current 179th SOS?!

I think that there is way to much football to be played to think that the CCIW only gets one team---without a doubt.

The national selections committee will never compare North Central and Wittenberg.  That order will be sorted out by the North region advisory committee prior to the national selection committee's business. 

Couple of things to watch for if you're looking for that second CCIW team to get invited:
- Will next week's rankings push North Central ahead of Wittenberg (if Witt loses)?  Witt will get a nice SOS boost this weekend. 
- North Central's bigger trump cards here are results vs. RROs.  If Oshkosh beats Platteville, the Cardinals will lose their RRO win and that really hurts them.  Also lingering is the possibility of DePauw finishing 8-2 which would definitely put them in the North rankings and give Witt an RRO win that they really miss at the moment.  If North Central loses that win over a ranked Platteville, I think they are dead in the water.  I don't think they can be ranked ahead of a single loss Wittenberg in the North and I don't think they are a viable selection nationally without that quality win. 

Last night I projected North Central as IN with the last Pool C selection.  The calculus that gets me to that point changes drastically, and very much not in NCC's favor, if Platteville loses another game. 

[USee]

All of this and more is on the boards in the "general football" tab under "Pool C"