FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[bleedpurple]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year. 

[izzy stradlin]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Right.  Talk about apples and oranges.

[USee]

We also know UW-P held NCC to lower offensive numbers than Wesley, so combined with Wesley's history it is a lot easier to make a judgment that Wesley still lacks on that side of the ball to take home the Walnut and Bronze. We don't have a similar comp for Morningside but we do know UWW's history.

Really?

UWP defense: 364 yds (134 pass, 230 rush), 5.4 yards per play, 5.1 yards per rush, they recover 1 fumble and have 0 sacks. I don't know that UWP was much better than Wesley on defense. Seems to me NCC turned off the gas in the 4th with a lead.

How about Team C: their defense plays a top 10 team, surrenders 471 yds (383 pass, 88 rush), 6.6 yards per play, 2.8 yds per rush, force 3 fumbles and have 5 sacks? Not good enough? That was UWW in their 38-28 win over Mt Union in the Stagg bowl.

I think Wesley's defense if fine. That was a really, really good offense they faced in NCC.

I think NCC has a really, really good offense and so does Wesley.

USee, I am not a stat person per se, I am an eye test person and what I see on the defensive side of the ball is not going to win a national championship.  I do know how good the offense is going to be as the year progresses and that will be good enough to win one.  If you see the game live the stats don't mean much.  But I will say that when you put them up against other game stats they are not that bad.  I am also stunned that the NCC offense that I saw yesterday only scored 28 on UWP.  Maybe you are on to something and I and others are just being too hard on the Wesley defense instead of giving credit to the other teams offense.  We shall see.

I saw the game too.

[USee]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

[bleedpurple]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

And your Team C Stagg Bowl reference? My guess is Wesley fans wouldn't be QUITE as concerned if they played Mount Union. Wesley knows Mount Union.  North Central ain't no Mount Union.

[USee]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

And your Team C Stagg Bowl reference? My guess is Wesley fans wouldn't be QUITE as concerned if they played Mount Union. Wesley knows Mount Union.  North Central ain't no Mount Union.

Relax big boy. No one is trying to be condescending to your Purple party. I am simply suggesting that Wesley\s defense is a lot better than folks who watched the game Saturday are giving them credit for.North Central, while no Mt Union, has good players on offense. They made plays. Hard plays. I am much more worried about NCC as a CCIW rival than I was before Saturday. This same NCC program, while no Mt Union, scored 40 pts in  Alliance not too long ago. This was a semi final quality game in my humble opinion. It wouldn't surprise me to see these two meet again deep in the playoffs.

That's right, I said it. NCC will have to go 7-0 to get there but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

[MasterJedi]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

And your Team C Stagg Bowl reference? My guess is Wesley fans wouldn't be QUITE as concerned if they played Mount Union. Wesley knows Mount Union.  North Central ain't no Mount Union.

Relax big boy. No one is trying to be condescending to your Purple party. I am simply suggesting that Wesley\s defense is a lot better than folks who watched the game Saturday are giving them credit for.North Central, while no Mt Union, has good players on offense. They made plays. Hard plays. I am much more worried about NCC as a CCIW rival than I was before Saturday. This same NCC program, while no Mt Union, scored 40 pts in  Alliance not too long ago. This was a semi final quality game in my humble opinion. It wouldn't surprise me to see these two meet again deep in the playoffs.

That's right, I said it. NCC will have to go 7-0 to get there but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

You mean the year that UMU's defense actually was bad in 2013? When they gave up a ton of yards and points all season? I'd call that season an aberration because it wasn't like that last year or this year yet. Curiously enough Wesley's defense is reminding me of 2013 UMU's defense so if you want to consider that good it's up to you.

Either way I suspect Wesley will have to get by UMHB in the end, that would look to be a real slobberknocker!

[bleedpurple]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

And your Team C Stagg Bowl reference? My guess is Wesley fans wouldn't be QUITE as concerned if they played Mount Union. Wesley knows Mount Union.  North Central ain't no Mount Union.

Relax big boy. No one is trying to be condescending to your Purple party. I am simply suggesting that Wesley\s defense is a lot better than folks who watched the game Saturday are giving them credit for.North Central, while no Mt Union, has good players on offense. They made plays. Hard plays. I am much more worried about NCC as a CCIW rival than I was before Saturday. This same NCC program, while no Mt Union, scored 40 pts in  Alliance not too long ago. This was a semi final quality game in my humble opinion. It wouldn't surprise me to see these two meet again deep in the playoffs.

That's right, I said it. NCC will have to go 7-0 to get there but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

No worries. And I don't disagree with your overall point that NCC should not be written off and may well have a strong offense. But you said in your original point that you were asking a "legitimate question".  People are answering your question, why Team A is viewed differently than Team B.  There are legitimate reasons, that's all.  And programs don't score points, teams do.  That 40 point total in 2013 was against an under-perfoming Mount defense and with a second team All-American QB. And even then, Mount was rightfully plenty concerned they didn't have a "championship defense". Which it turned out they did not.

[USee]

I just posted this on the Wesley board but will repost it here for you guys:

So here is a legitimate question for you guys.

Team A plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 402 yds (261 passing and 141 rushing), 5.9 yards per play, 3.1 yard per rush and they recover 1 fumble and have 2 sacks. Their team wins by 3 in the closing seconds.

Team B plays a top 15 team in the country. Their defense surrenders 465 yards (321 passing and 144 rushing) 5.5 yards per play, 3.3 yards per rush and they recover 2 fumbles and has 6 sacks. Their team wins by 1 in the closing seconds.

Team A is considered to have a national championship defense but Team B isn't good enough to win a championship.

Makes no sense to me.

I don't know, maybe the following:
Team B gave up 3 more TD's than Team A.
Team B faced a frehsman QB, while Team A faced a 6th year senior who was first team All-American last  year.

Or maybe not.

And your Team C Stagg Bowl reference? My guess is Wesley fans wouldn't be QUITE as concerned if they played Mount Union. Wesley knows Mount Union.  North Central ain't no Mount Union.

Relax big boy. No one is trying to be condescending to your Purple party. I am simply suggesting that Wesley\s defense is a lot better than folks who watched the game Saturday are giving them credit for.North Central, while no Mt Union, has good players on offense. They made plays. Hard plays. I am much more worried about NCC as a CCIW rival than I was before Saturday. This same NCC program, while no Mt Union, scored 40 pts in  Alliance not too long ago. This was a semi final quality game in my humble opinion. It wouldn't surprise me to see these two meet again deep in the playoffs.

That's right, I said it. NCC will have to go 7-0 to get there but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

No worries. And I don't disagree with your overall point that NCC should not be written off and may well have a strong offense. But you said in your original point that you were asking a "legitimate question".  People are answering your question, why Team A is viewed differently than Team B.  There are legitimate reasons, that's all.  And programs don't score points, teams do.  That 40 point total in 2013 was against an under-perfoming Mount defense and with a second team All-American QB. And even then, Mount was rightfully plenty concerned they didn't have a "championship defense". Which it turned out they did not.

And yet that Mt Union team, with it's pathetic defense, somehow made it to the National Championship game. They ran into a UWW team that didn't give up more than 2 TD's in any game all year so it was not meant to be. But in other years or other circumstances, that Mt Union team may have been good enough to win a championship. And that's my overall point. Wesley doesn't have to be UWW to win it. They have to be the best version of Wesley they can be and they are talented enough to have a shot.

Wesley's defense is not that bad. They held an NCC team that is a 60% running team, to 144 rush yards and 3.1 ypc (averaging 220 yds and 4.7 ypc). They sacked the QB 6 times and forced 2 fumbles. The freshman kid, who is obviously pretty good,

[jknezek]

Here's my take. NCC might have a great offense. Maybe no one else will hold them to 50 points or less all season, but it's pretty rare for a national champion level team to give up 40+ points in a game, even at the end of the year for the finals and semi-finals. UWW hasn't given up 40 points in a game since 2005, a game they won at Linfield 44-41. In the AQ era, UMU has given up 40 points 3 times. All late in the playoffs in one suspect year.

It is rare, really rare, for a Stagg level team to give up that much on defense. Even when it comes to the best teams at the end of the playoffs. I think it is fair to ask questions in that context.

In the broader context of whether Wesley has a good DIII defense, or NCC has an awesome DIII offense, then it's probably less fair of a question. But when you are talking Stagg level, no team since before the start of the AQ era has won the Stagg having given up 40+ points in a game that season. 

[USee]

Jknezek,

I don't disagree. Teams don't win the Stagg giving up 40 pts. I will make two final points. First, this was no ordinary regular season game. This was a semi-final type game played in September. Second, while no Stagg winner has given up 40+ pts, there have been plenty of high scoring affairs in the 30's, including last year's Stagg (43-34). Mt Union also won the title in 2012 after getting past UMHB 48-35. Wesley is going to beat the rest of their schedule and likely make it to the Semi's. We will see how they do from there.

[emma17]

The boss and I were able to make the first half of the NCC vs. Wesley game and then watch the second half via webb- both were great experiences.  The broadcast crew for NCC does an excellent job- probably the least "homer" broadcast I've heard for D3.  Handoff to Randolph.   

Quick NCC observations:
-I was really impressed with Hunniford.  The kid is a freshman with moxy and a strong arm.  NCC looking good at QB for a long time.
-The receivers looked good too.
-I personally don't like the offensive style where the team gets to the line of scrimmage, and then stands up to look to the sideline for the play.  It was a hot day.  I felt NCC would have benefited from a faster pace on offense.
-The D Line looks somewhat small and they struggled often.  I tried to get a feel for rotation but had other things going on.  How many guys rotate?
-On the last drive I saw NCC went to a 3- man rush, reminded me of a playoff collapse.  The D coaches are smarter than me I know, but I'd prefer a 4- man rush. 
-On last TD it looked like NCC was tight man from the 12 yd line.  My amateur opinion is to back the corner up so he can better see and play the ball and the receiver.  Callahan is deadly with the placement of his short fade.  In tight man, the CB could only play the reaction of the receiver, and it didn't work out well.

IMO both teams are worthy playoff teams, even with NCC at 1-2.  They proved, as they almost always do, that they can play with the best. 

Both need to improve on defense to have a chance at the big prize.  NCC is good on offense, but they aren't so good that Wesley shouldn't be seriously concerned with giving up 49 points. 
 

[jknezek]

there have been plenty of high scoring affairs in the 30's, including last year's Stagg (43-34). Mt Union also won the title in 2012 after getting past UMHB 48-35.

I included late playoff games just because this was no ordinary DIII game. So the level of competition was included in my reasoning. Your examples are fine and dandy, but Wesley didn't give up mid-30s points. They gave up 1 point shy of 50, or 40% more points than the 2 examples you cited. That is a big difference.

I know that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean it won't happen in the future, but I feel pretty confident that a team giving up those points to someone not named UMU/UWW is not going to win the Stagg. DIII is simply too divided between the top two elites, the second tier excellent, the third tier competitors and then everyone else with pretty much no shot. Giving up 49 points to a second or third tier team is pretty indicative that you will be very hard pressed to hang with UMU or UWW when push comes to shove.

For the record:
UMU/UWW -- top of the heap

Linfield, UMHB, Wesley, MIAC champion -- a chance if not always a good one. would be an upset, but not shocking.

MIAC/WIAC runner up, NCC in most years, E8 rep in some years, NCAC rep in really good years, Wheaton in really good years  --- a major upset but you could see it happening, squinting sideways for some, even if you'd be really surprised.

[emma17]

JK
I agree with your tier rankings from a recent historical perspective.
Just for discussion I would make some changes specific to 2015:
I'd add Wheaton (depending on injury situation) to tier 2 and move Wesley to Tier 2- / Tier 3+.
It's looking like Wabash may be pushing into Tier 2.

[USee]

there have been plenty of high scoring affairs in the 30's, including last year's Stagg (43-34). Mt Union also won the title in 2012 after getting past UMHB 48-35.

I included late playoff games just because this was no ordinary DIII game. So the level of competition was included in my reasoning. Your examples are fine and dandy, but Wesley didn't give up mid-30s points. They gave up 1 point shy of 50, or 40% more points than the 2 examples you cited. That is a big difference.

The big question is, can we quantify just how big the difference is? The answer, at least from recent history, appears to be National Champion vs National Runner up.

I know that just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean it won't happen in the future, but I feel pretty confident that a team giving up those points to someone not named UMU/UWW is not going to win the Stagg. DIII is simply too divided between the top two elites, the second tier excellent, the third tier competitors and then everyone else with pretty much no shot. Giving up 49 points to a second or third tier team is pretty indicative that you will be very hard pressed to hang with UMU or UWW when push comes to shove.

Fixed this for you. Way to go out on a limb with that prediction.