FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Greg,

If, as you say, "the problem with NPU's ground game is that the Vikings just don't run enough to make it truly effective," isn't that basically saying they lack the semblance of a rushing attack?

No, it isn't. As I said yesterday, NPU averaged 3.7 ypr (18 rushes, 67 yards) overall on Saturday, which is at least respectable. Furthermore, the Vikings averaged 4.7 ypr (11 rushes, 52 yards) against the North Central starters. A 4.7 ypr average is pretty darned good against the starting defense of a ranked opponent.

There's a yawning chasm between a "not truly effective" running game and "lack[ing] any semblance" of a running game. NPU's running game could certainly be better if the Vikings were able to utilize the run more (and I think that they will be able to do so over the next few weeks, now that the schedule will lighten up), but the Vikings do have a running game. I can't figure out why you don't think that they do, since you saw the same game I did on Saturday. Were you out of the stands getting a hot dog or taking a whiz when Kvonte Spearman and Filo Langkilde each had a 15-yard carry against the Cardinals starters?

The fact that they are usually behind and have to pass really doesn't matter.

It matters a ton. The more often you trail big in the second half, the less chance you have to run. The less you run, the less effective your ground game is overall. Q.E.D.

And what about the adage that you need to run to set up the passing game?

The adage is that you need to run to set up the play-action passing game. Play-action doesn't work if the opponent doesn't respect your running game. NPU doesn't use a lot of play-action.

North Park is dead last in rushing offense in the CCIW. They average only 3.1 YPR, and have only 372 yards on the ground all year, an average of only 74.4 YPG. That just doesn't sound like much of a semblance of a running game.

I've already explained to you why those seasonal numbers look the way that they do. Statistics aren't generated in a vacuum, Mark. They reflect opponents and game situations. To wit:

* North Park trailed St. Norbert by 18 points early in the third quarter. The Vikings got back into the game by throwing the ball on 20 out of their next 25 plays, with two of those five runs being T.D. Conway scrambles. (And, trust me, T.D. Conway is a 6'4, 225 pocket passer who is neither a serious running threat nor a player that the NPU coaching staff wants to needlessly expose to more hits by having him run the ball by design. His number is never called for a straight running play, unless it's a line-up-under-center QB sneak.) That strategy of calling 22 pass plays in that 25-play stretch worked, as the offense got the Vikings to within striking distance, allowing NPU to take the lead in the final two minutes (albeit briefly) via a defensive touchdown.

* North Park found itself down 28-0 at the half to UW-Oshkosh. The Vikings actually stuck with the run somewhat in that game, as 13 of their 30 rushing attempts came in the second half (although four of those 13 were Conway scrambles). The Vikings had very little success on the ground in that game, but not much that OC John Bear dialed up in that game worked for NPU, whether through the air or on the ground. That had less to do with North Park's competence or incompetence than it had to do with the Titans defense being close to an immovable force. Don't believe me? Ask our UW-Whitewater posters about that. NPU actually averaged more yards per rush (3.1) against UWO than did the Warhawks this past Saturday (2.2).

* North Park stayed in the game longer against Wheaton than it did against either UWO or NCC, as it was still only a ten-point game until the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance scored a touchdown with 7:19 left in the third quarter that put them up by a score of 24-7. NPU's rushing stats look miserable for that game -- 27 attempts for 65 yards for an anemic 2.4 ypr -- but they're deceptive. The NCAA considers sacks to be rushing plays, and Wheaton linebackers Logan McRae and Caleb Ashby sacked Conway four times for 30 yards. Sift out those four sacks from the rushing stats (Conway did not have any positive-yardage runs via scramble in that game), and the true picture of the NPU rushing performance in that game emerges: 23 attempts for 95 yards for a respectable, if not earth-shaking, 4.1 ypr.

Context, Mark, context.

Maybe run a little more before the other team gets so far ahead and they have to pass. And, as previously indicated, if they can run, that might help the passing game be that much more successful. 

In spite of the fact that the North Central offense was running roughshod over the NPU defense from the get-go in Saturday's game, it was still only 17-13 in favor of the Cardinals with less than two minutes to go in the first half. The Vikings had had the ball for 30 plays at that point, picking up 209 yards (an average of seven yards per play) to establish those 13 points. And of those 30 plays, 22 were pass plays. I don't see how you can second-guess John Bear's play-calling when it had the Vikings within four points that close to halftime on a day in which the NPU defense could hardly even slow down the Cardinals.

And as far as "calling 81's number on at least every other play," I think you know I didn't mean that literally.

Sometimes I'm not sure with you, Mark. It would've at least been helpful if, since you're not shy about being prescriptive regarding NPU's offense, you would've given a non-exaggerated figure as to how many times you think that that Vikings should've passed the ball to Childress.

At least you agree with me that Childress is one of the top WRs in the conference. There is no doubt he is one of NPU's top weapons.

Yup. On both counts.

[Gregory Sager]

AndOne:

I commented last year that I did not understand why Conway did not throw deep to Childress at least once a half.

Devin Childress caught passes of 21, 40, 28, and 33 yards against North Central on Saturday, Mark. At least two other long passes thrown to Childress were incomplete. You picked the wrong game to revive your complaint.

[Gregory Sager]

Gregory-
You've now seen UWO, Wheaton and NCC play North Park.  I'm interested in your opinion on the three teams.  For transparency, I'm not of the opinion at this time that UWO is the 5th best team in the country, so I'm not trying to stir any pot about the WIAC vs the CCIW, I'm just interested in your perspective.

I'm not sure that I ought to venture forth an opinion about this. I don't want to get a snarky fake memo from AndOne for comparing teams.

Based strictly upon what I saw in their games against NPU, I think that UWO and Wheaton are roughly equal. Both have absolutely stifling defenses that can handle both the run and the pass. UWO's strength seemed to be in its D line, while Wheaton has the best trio of linebackers that I've seen in person in a very long time. Both have quality secondaries.

I would classify both the UWO and WC offenses as very good but not great. Neither really put away an outmatched North Park team early; two of UWO's five touchdowns were defensive, while, as I stated in an earlier post, NPU did manage to hang around with Wheaton until halfway thru the third quarter, and even then it's not as though WC was able to run up the score. One difference here is that Wheaton was playing with its second-string quarterback, Andrew Bowers. Frankly, I think that Bowers could start for at least 80% of all the teams in D3 ... perhaps as many as 90%. He's that good. I do agree with izzy stradlin, however, that if Wheaton wants to make a deep playoff run it's going to have to have the services of usual starter Johnny Peltz, who throws a better deep ball than does Bowers (although Wheaton's huge receivers make a somewhat-errant long ball more forgiving). I can't really comment upon UWO's backup QB, since Connor Senger only came in to hand off the ball on UWO's final drive, and it's my impression that he, too, got hurt by your Warhawks along with starter Brett Kasper. Both teams run the ball really well, although in terms of primary RBs I think that UWO's Dylan Hecker gets the nod over WC's Sola Olateju.

The quarterback situation for both teams really keeps me from making anything other than a deeply qualified comparison, however.

Putting on my snark armor for the expected onslaught from Naperville, I think that -- again, based solely upon what I saw against NPU -- North Central is overall a notch below the other two ranked teams NPU's faced in its last three games. There's no doubt that NCC is really strong in the running game, a fact which has as much to do with the very solid O line, blocking schemes, and ability to read and react to the opposing defense as it does with the runners themselves (and NCC does have very good ballcarriers). Both QBs, Dylan Warden and Justin Hunniford, bring positives to the table. NCC's passing game is good, although I think that it's just a tad below those of UWO and WC.

Defensively, however, North Central just didn't impress me as much as did UW-Oshkosh and Wheaton. The Titans just smother you all over the field, especially at the line of scrimmage, and force you into one mistake after another; Wheaton has great playmakers that are difficult to counter and who can make a difference in any game situation. NCC has good players on the defensive side of the ball (I particularly liked CB Jeremy Niklos), but not really any great ones -- and that used to be a distinguishing feature of North Central defenses. I didn't see a Dierking or a Fick or a Tripp or a Michals or a Mitchell or a Bulandr or a Hayes or a Wenger out there. Teams can move the ball against North Central, and I'm not just talking about upper-echelon squads such as UW-Platteville and Wesley. Based upon what I saw, it looks to me that other CCIW teams might be able to generate a little more offense against the Cardinals than they will against Wheaton. Not a tremendous amount, probably, but at least a little more. Again, though, that's based only upon what I saw in those two specific games.

I think that the Little Brass Bell game between NCC and WC in two weeks is a push, but that's because the game will be played on the home field of the Cardinals. If forced to predict one way or the other, I'd actually have to give the slightest of edges to Wheaton -- especially if Johnny Peltz is healthy by then.

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

[badgerwarhawk]

Greg:  "The Titans just smother you all over the field, especially at the line of scrimmage,"

Can't speak to NCC or Wheaton but you hit the nail on the proverbial head regarding the Titan D.  We just couldn't get into any kind of sustained rhythm against them.  They have size, speed and athleticism up front.

[ExTartanPlayer]

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

Gregory, it is both inappropriate and unprofessional for an NPU broadcaster to compare teams that haven't played, even if you have seen each team play and thus would have unique insight about the relative strengths of each.  Perhaps you should worry about your own team winning some games instead of daring to comment on the good teams in response to a direct inquiry.  In any case, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Kovo]

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

Gregory, it is both inappropriate and unprofessional for an NPU broadcaster to compare teams that haven't played, even if you have seen each team play and thus would have unique insight about the relative strengths of each.  Perhaps you should worry about your own team winning some games instead of daring to comment on the good teams in response to a direct inquiry.  In any case, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

What a great post!! This now my favorite post of the year!!  I'm glad that you have been paying attention to and even quoting the brilliance previously put forth on this Board. +K for you.

[Mr. Ypsi]

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

Gregory, it is both inappropriate and unprofessional for an NPU broadcaster to compare teams that haven't played, even if you have seen each team play and thus would have unique insight about the relative strengths of each.  Perhaps you should worry about your own team winning some games instead of daring to comment on the good teams in response to a direct inquiry.  In any case, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

+K

I'd say 'like coach, like broadcaster', but it might be inappropriate and unprofessional for the NPU broadcaster to imitate the Millikin coach!

[Mugsy]

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

Gregory, it is both inappropriate and unprofessional for an NPU broadcaster to compare teams that haven't played, even if you have seen each team play and thus would have unique insight about the relative strengths of each.  Perhaps you should worry about your own team winning some games instead of daring to comment on the good teams in response to a direct inquiry.  In any case, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c

[Gregory Sager]

To be clear, I think that North Central is really good and definitely deserves to be ranked despite that 3-2 record. It wouldn't terribly surprise me if the Cardinals run the table from here on out, beating both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan and not having a letdown against Carthage, Augie, or Elmhurst. But I don't think that they're of quite the same overall quality as either Wheaton or UW-Oshkosh.

Gregory, it is both inappropriate and unprofessional for an NPU broadcaster to compare teams that haven't played, even if you have seen each team play and thus would have unique insight about the relative strengths of each.  Perhaps you should worry about your own team winning some games instead of daring to comment on the good teams in response to a direct inquiry.  In any case, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

I'd say 'like coach, like broadcaster', but it might be inappropriate and unprofessional for the NPU broadcaster to imitate the Millikin coach!

[emma17]

Thanks for the review of the three teams Gregory.
I've not seen Wheaton in person so it's good to read your perspective.

UWO performed surprisingly well with their 3rd string QB against UWW, mostly with short passes and the read option that I think is similar to NCC's offense. 

       

[79jaybird]

IMO,  it is quite apparent there are 3 really strong teams,  WC/IWU/NC (and no particular order)   and then the rest of the group.  I don't think it is fair to just look at NC's record, because (to their credit) they have scheduled some great teams in the non conf.  I don't think anybody would put Wesley on the same scale as a Loras, Simpson, Lakeland, etc. 

My gut feeling is IWU has a really strong shot to win this conference, flying under the radar up until this point.  With a solid defense,  you can pretty much assure yourself you are going to be in most every game.

[New Tradition]

IMO,  it is quite apparent there are 3 really strong teams,  WC/IWU/NC (and no particular order)   and then the rest of the group.  I don't think it is fair to just look at NC's record, because (to their credit) they have scheduled some great teams in the non conf.  I don't think anybody would put Wesley on the same scale as a Loras, Simpson, Lakeland, etc. 

My gut feeling is IWU has a really strong shot to win this conference, flying under the radar up until this point.  With a solid defense,  you can pretty much assure yourself you are going to be in most every game.

This is my fear, as well.  Everyone's talking about Wheaton and NCC, and they deserve to be talked about, but apart from that blip against Carthage (who I'm not convinced is as bad as their record indicates anyway) IWU has been putting up some big points.  Their next closest game is a 10 point victory over Franklin, who has been putting on their own offensive show (they dropped 80 on a team last week).  Franklin also scored the most points on the Titans, 24.  No other team has even broken the 20 mark against that defense.  In my opinion, the Titans look to be pretty nasty.  Not to mention the fact that Wesleyan gets to host both of them.  I think Jaybird hit the nail on the head here. 

On another note, looking at scheduling, I think if Wesleyan is going to beat one or the other, I think they have a better shot at NCC simply because they play NCC first and could be a little banged up/have a big game hangover when Wheaton comes to town the following week.  Its tough to play 2 huge games like that in a row.  Similarly, NCC plays Wheaton at home, then the following week goes right down to Bloomington for another slugfest.  Meanwhile, Wheaton gets a slight reprieve between juggernauts as they play Elmhurst in between NCC and Wesleyan.  Scheduling, I believe, favors the Thunder here, even though they have to play both teams on the road. 

The back half of this conference schedule is going to be incredibly exciting!!

[izzy stradlin]

Around the region on Wheaton:

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/midwest/2015/wheaton-winning-with-balance

[izzy stradlin]

IMO,  it is quite apparent there are 3 really strong teams,  WC/IWU/NC (and no particular order)   and then the rest of the group.  I don't think it is fair to just look at NC's record, because (to their credit) they have scheduled some great teams in the non conf.  I don't think anybody would put Wesley on the same scale as a Loras, Simpson, Lakeland, etc. 

My gut feeling is IWU has a really strong shot to win this conference, flying under the radar up until this point.  With a solid defense,  you can pretty much assure yourself you are going to be in most every game.

This is my fear, as well.  Everyone's talking about Wheaton and NCC, and they deserve to be talked about, but apart from that blip against Carthage (who I'm not convinced is as bad as their record indicates anyway) IWU has been putting up some big points.  Their next closest game is a 10 point victory over Franklin, who has been putting on their own offensive show (they dropped 80 on a team last week).  Franklin also scored the most points on the Titans, 24.  No other team has even broken the 20 mark against that defense.  In my opinion, the Titans look to be pretty nasty.  Not to mention the fact that Wesleyan gets to host both of them.  I think Jaybird hit the nail on the head here. 

On another note, looking at scheduling, I think if Wesleyan is going to beat one or the other, I think they have a better shot at NCC simply because they play NCC first and could be a little banged up/have a big game hangover when Wheaton comes to town the following week.  Its tough to play 2 huge games like that in a row.  Similarly, NCC plays Wheaton at home, then the following week goes right down to Bloomington for another slugfest.  Meanwhile, Wheaton gets a slight reprieve between juggernauts as they play Elmhurst in between NCC and Wesleyan.  Scheduling, I believe, favors the Thunder here, even though they have to play both teams on the road. 

The back half of this conference schedule is going to be incredibly exciting!!

I agree it's going to be an exciting back half, but I think IWU has the advantage in scheduling. I don't think there is a huge home-field advantage in the bell game as we've seen NCC and Wheaton win on the road many times (proximity/familiarity, large traveling fan base, etc evens the playing field).   On the other hand, Wheaton hasn't won in Bloomington since 2003. That said, I think Wheaton's relative overall program talent is now where it was during their run in the early 2000's. While I'd still give NCC the edge of IWU on a neutral field, I think those will be equally tough games for Wheaton. 

[New Tradition]

I realize that I haven't seen as much as many of the people on here and that there is so much of the D3 landscape that I have not explored, but seriously...Joe Callahan has to be the strongest D3 QB I have ever seen.  I watched him shake off defender after defender that would have crumpled the overwhelming majority of QBs and then continue to make amazing plays AFTER he should have been brought down, both with his feet and his arm in the NCC game, and then he goes and does something like this:

http://www.d3football.com/awards/playoftheweek/2015/week6

Seriously, what an amazing athlete...