FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[wally_wabash]

This isn't a huge surprise, guys.  You can't lose 38 percent of your games and be ranked highly (or at all). Win percentage is a primary criteria.

[ncc_fan]

This isn't a huge surprise, guys.  You can't lose 38 percent of your games and be ranked highly (or at all). Win percentage is a primary criteria.

But win percentage is not the sole primary criterion.  The other primary criteria are
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Division III strength of schedule
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection.

Looks like the committee ignored most of the primary criteria.

[Kovo]

This isn't a huge surprise, guys.  You can't lose 38 percent of your games and be ranked highly (or at all). Win percentage is a primary criteria.

But win percentage is not the sole primary criterion.  The other primary criteria are
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Division III strength of schedule
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection.

Looks like the committee ignored most of the primary criteria.

Once again, I will point out the folly of scheduling tough non-conference games. 

The bottom line (to quote Bill Parcells) is that "you are what your record says you are."  There are no three loss teams in the regional rankings, and absent an AQ, there will be no three loss teams in the D3 playoffs.

But what the heck, GO GREEN WEENIES!! (this week only, of course---and by less than 29).  That was painful to type.

[Neverwas]

This isn't a huge surprise, guys.  You can't lose 38 percent of your games and be ranked highly (or at all). Win percentage is a primary criteria.

Doesn't it just make for tough conversation each week re: NCC?

I would say it is pretty much a lock they go 7-3 and their winning percentage goes to 70%.  Wouldn't the rest of their resume stack up fairly well to a team that was 8-2?  At this moment it hurts all teams that beat NCC but isn't it fairly safe to say that NCC will be regionally ranked come selection time?

[wally_wabash]

This isn't a huge surprise, guys.  You can't lose 38 percent of your games and be ranked highly (or at all). Win percentage is a primary criteria.

Doesn't it just make for tough conversation each week re: NCC?

I would say it is pretty much a lock they go 7-3 and their winning percentage goes to 70%.  Wouldn't the rest of their resume stack up fairly well to a team that was 8-2?  At this moment it hurts all teams that beat NCC but isn't it fairly safe to say that NCC will be regionally ranked come selection time?

I believe they will be, yes.

[mwunder]

I have long referred to our writing of gamers as "meatball journalism". That is a take on the description that Hawkeye Pierce used to give to surgery performed during the Korean War during the epic television series M*A*S*H. Sometimes, quite simply, we don't have the time to get it perfect. But, the story gets posted and it is there for all to read (and criticize). So we do the best we can.

It's not like this was the first time this has happened.  It started with pretty much the first press release regarding the women's volleyball team and has continued throughout the school year.  I didn't say anything about it, but this last "gamer" was just too bad not to mention.

The student athletes at Carthage deserve more than excuses for the "meatball journalism" coming out of Kenosha.

[79jaybird]

Dave Wrath was one of the first SID's I met on the road.  As a visiting PBP guy,  he would always make us feel welcome and make sure we had all the resources needed to get the call going on radio.   Often it was tough to find something good to say about Elmhurst losing 58-0 and 62-0 but Dave would find something positive to say.

I was usually right next to the SID and Stats people.   I could see how challenging and multi-tasked to you have to be, especially on game day. 

I think we have some great SID's currently including Brett and Stew.   We all miss the recently retired greats like Dave and Steve.

[USee]

D3 staff made the following comments on the North Regional rankings:

No unbeatens with an SOS of .500 or better. Mount Union's will rise the final two weeks. Suspect the 'last year's playoff performance' tiebreaker was in play here. ... Albion 1-0 vs. regionally ranked opponents (RRO) and Illinois Wesleyan 1-0 as well, with a lower SOS. ... Not immediately clear why John Carroll (0-0 v. RRO) is ahead of Olivet (0-1).

I am not sure what is meant by "last year's playoff performance" tiebreaker was in play.....What happens the next two weekends is critical for all involved and will impact seeds and pool C. Right now neither Wheaton nor Wabash have results against regionally ranked opponents (RRO). That will change this week for Wheaton. And if North Central re-appears in the rankings next week or in the final rankings it will make a difference. Likewise, Depauw or Wittenberg or even Hampden-Sydney (in the SOuth) could appear for Wabash giving them results against RRO. And if NCC appears it helps Wheaton and Platteville in the West.

Remember, NCC really only has a shot at the playoffs if IWU wins this weekend (by less than 29 pts). If IWU beats Wheaton, things get really spicey for the CCIW as IWU and Wheaton will be 1 loss teams in Pool C and NCC will be in via the AQ. That puts Wheaton on the bubble for the playoffs since they will have a semi-weak strength of schedule, will be behind IWU in the cue, and would have to be the 3rd team from the same conference chosen, which has only happened 1 other time ever. All that with a boatload of talented teams in the West region that will be vying for Pool C positions.

So just win em all as they say on the Pool C board.

[ExTartanPlayer]

D3 staff made the following comments on the North Regional rankings:

No unbeatens with an SOS of .500 or better. Mount Union's will rise the final two weeks. Suspect the 'last year's playoff performance' tiebreaker was in play here. ... Albion 1-0 vs. regionally ranked opponents (RRO) and Illinois Wesleyan 1-0 as well, with a lower SOS. ... Not immediately clear why John Carroll (0-0 v. RRO) is ahead of Olivet (0-1).

I am not sure what is meant by "last year's playoff performance" tiebreaker was in play.....What happens the next two weekends is critical for all involved and will impact seeds and pool C. Right now neither Wheaton nor Wabash have results against regionally ranked opponents (RRO). That will change this week for Wheaton. And if North Central re-appears in the rankings next week or in the final rankings it will make a difference. Likewise, Depauw or Wittenberg or even Hampden-Sydney (in the SOuth) could appear for Wabash giving them results against RRO. And if NCC appears it helps Wheaton and Platteville in the West.

I asssume that they meant this with respect to Mount ranked ahead of Wheaton and Wabash, because Mount has a lower SOS and no RR wins.

Re: Pool C, I think that the West actually does have the four or maybe even five best Pool C teams, but one thing that we've discussed on these boards is that if you're the first team up from a region, by the fourth or fifth time you're discussed a little fatigue might set in and you might get lucky.  But if you're the second or third team from a region whose first team isn't going in right away, you should be very, very nervous.

IWU is definitely toast if they lose.  8-2 with a loss to NCC (which will hurt them as a common-opponent problem if they're on the board at the same time as UWP late in the selection process, which seems likely) probably keeps them home. 

Wheaton should be very nervous if they lose and North Central takes the AQ.  The hypothetical 9-1 IWU actually looks pretty good (win over Franklin helps) and I think would be in.  But in that hypothetical, 9-1 Wheaton will be waiting awhile to get discussed.

[wally_wabash]

D3 staff made the following comments on the North Regional rankings:

No unbeatens with an SOS of .500 or better. Mount Union's will rise the final two weeks. Suspect the 'last year's playoff performance' tiebreaker was in play here. ... Albion 1-0 vs. regionally ranked opponents (RRO) and Illinois Wesleyan 1-0 as well, with a lower SOS. ... Not immediately clear why John Carroll (0-0 v. RRO) is ahead of Olivet (0-1).

I am not sure what is meant by "last year's playoff performance" tiebreaker was in play.....

My guess is that they are looking at why Mount Union is #1 as opposed to Wheaton or Wabash.  Which seems silly on the surface, but for as poor as Wheaton and Wabash's SOSs are at the moment, Mount Union's is significantly worse still. 

[emma17]

D3 staff made the following comments on the North Regional rankings:

No unbeatens with an SOS of .500 or better. Mount Union's will rise the final two weeks. Suspect the 'last year's playoff performance' tiebreaker was in play here. ... Albion 1-0 vs. regionally ranked opponents (RRO) and Illinois Wesleyan 1-0 as well, with a lower SOS. ... Not immediately clear why John Carroll (0-0 v. RRO) is ahead of Olivet (0-1).

I am not sure what is meant by "last year's playoff performance" tiebreaker was in play.....What happens the next two weekends is critical for all involved and will impact seeds and pool C. Right now neither Wheaton nor Wabash have results against regionally ranked opponents (RRO). That will change this week for Wheaton. And if North Central re-appears in the rankings next week or in the final rankings it will make a difference. Likewise, Depauw or Wittenberg or even Hampden-Sydney (in the SOuth) could appear for Wabash giving them results against RRO. And if NCC appears it helps Wheaton and Platteville in the West.

I asssume that they meant this with respect to Mount ranked ahead of Wheaton and Wabash, because Mount has a lower SOS and no RR wins.

Re: Pool C, I think that the West actually does have the four or maybe even five best Pool C teams, but one thing that we've discussed on these boards is that if you're the first team up from a region, by the fourth or fifth time you're discussed a little fatigue might set in and you might get lucky.  But if you're the second or third team from a region whose first team isn't going in right away, you should be very, very nervous.

IWU is definitely toast if they lose.  8-2 with a loss to NCC (which will hurt them as a common-opponent problem if they're on the board at the same time as UWP late in the selection process, which seems likely) probably keeps them home. 

Wheaton should be very nervous if they lose and North Central takes the AQ.  The hypothetical 9-1 IWU actually looks pretty good (win over Franklin helps) and I think would be in.  But in that hypothetical, 9-1 Wheaton will be waiting awhile to get discussed.

If Wheaton beats IWU this weekend, is it possible NCC and IWU will be unranked?

[wally_wabash]

If Wheaton beats IWU this weekend, is it possible NCC and IWU will be unranked?

My lean is toward no- IWU does have the RRO win over Franklin which nobody else below them in the North's rankings do.  If IWU does fall out by losing on Saturday, I think there would be room for them after Week 11 when John Carroll and DePauw lose by 100 each. 

[thunderdog]

Looking forward to the Wheaton @ IWU game this Saturday. Thankfully, I'll be able to make it to Bloomington for the game in person

IMO, here are a few defensive keys to the game:
1) Stop #34 Maurice Gilmore-Shoemaker (5'11" 210). With the likely absence of #14 Artie Checchin, I don't think it will be a surprise that IWU comes out and attempts to pound the rock. Let's also not forget that #24 Austin Harrell (6'4" 210) had some nice success vs the Thunder last year, going for 115 on just 13 carries (and 42 yards on 3 receptions). The Thunder D needs to stop these 2 in their tracks.

2) #92 Josh Aldrin (5'8" 257) and #91 Noah Spielman (6'0" 265) need to keep doing what they've been doing- being stout in their gaps and plugging that middle. Lots of accolades go out to the LB's and others on this D, but these 2 are often overlooked. Well, in the NCC game, based on my recollection, the Cards ran it straight up the gut on maybe 5-6 plays (forgive me if I'm off), and made it past the LOS just once. Again, it's very possible my #'s are off here, but my point is these 2 beasts played extremely well and will need to do so again this Saturday.

3) Make #2 Jake Warner (5'10" 165) throw the ball. It's no secret that Warner had a tough day at the office last week vs NCC. Wheaton's DE's McRae and Greenlee need to keep contain, not let Warner out of the pocket and use his legs with his obvious escapability skills. IWU's top receiving threat will be #4 Andrew Javorka (6'2" 205). Javorka scored IWU's lone TD against Wheaton last year and looked good last week against NCC. He'll be a tough challenge for the Thunder secondary.

Forecast is for sunny skies and temps in the 50's. Looking forward to a great game and hopefully a win for the Thunder.

[USee]

I think both teams will have similar gameplans. Run the ball and let their defense take over. The team that does this more effectively, and error free, wins. If Eash decides to come out throwing I think it's a decided advantage to Wheaton. I am pretty sure Wheaton is going to run it and play defense. That's what they did at North Central and almost every game this year. It won't be any different Saturday. The Thunder are as healthy as they have been all year up front and on defense.

I think both teams could really struggle to score and if one of these teams gets to 17 points, that's probably the winner.

[USee]

Norm Eash's IWU offenses have almost always been very balanced. Their run/pass ratio this year is 57/43 and it has been within 5% of 50/50 almost every year the past 10 years. This year they are a little more run oriented in part because Jack Warner is a running qb. With Rob Gallik a few years ago they got near 40/60 in favor of the pass for obvious reasons but Eash likes to keep it balanced. He has a work horse in Shoemaker-Gilmore but you rarely see an IWU back with 20+ carries. Shoemaker-Gilmore averages 11-12 carries a game and through 6 games this season his highest # of carries was 10. Then, against Elmhurst, he had 21 carries for 142 yds and against NCC he had 16 carries for 101 yds. I would expect him to get 15-20 carries against Wheaton and Austin Harrell will get his usual 4-8. This will be the key to the game in my opinion.