FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Tomorrow marks the release of the NCAA's first regional rankings which is followed by an uptick in interest for all Pool C watchers as it will be the first indication for where teams rank in the at-large process for the playoffs. There is a lot of good information about this for those that are interested. On the front page, www.d3football.com, the regional rankings will be posted almost immediately and on these boards you can follow the analysis (some good stuff on there now) on the Pool C board here:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8385.945

Wheaton folks are watching these regional rankings closely as a 9-1 Thunder team has a strong chance at an at-large bid. Much of that is determined by the NCAA's criteria, including strength of schedule, which you can find here

http://d3football.com/seasons/2016/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Wheaton's SOS will come down each of the next two weeks as they play Augie and Carroll so it will be interesting to see how that affects there position on the rankings. The rankings come out with the top 8 teams listed as North, South, East and West. Wheaton and NCC are in the North and the highest rated team that doesn't draw an automatic bid by winning their league, will be the first at-large team compared to each of the other region's top at-large team. This process is explained on the Pool C board referenced above.

Fun times ahead.......

[wally_wabash]

The rankings come out with the top 8 teams listed as North, South, East and West.

They'll be top 10s. 

It would be a shock to see Wheaton not be the highest ranked non-qualifier in this region.  I think this is true even in the worst case scenario where Wheaton is only 0-1 vs. regionally ranked opponents (loss to North Central, obviously).  From there, Wheaton's profile can only be enhanced should IWU or Carthage slide in to the bottom of the rankings. 

If I had to paint a doomsday scenario for Wheaton it would be one where Denison wins the NCAC, Wittenberg for some reason gets ranked higher than Wheaton, and John Carroll wins the OAC.  If ALL of those things happen, things get weird for Wheaton.  But I wouldn't worry too much about that were I Thunder fan. 

[Neverwas]

Looking at the NRFP it seems IWU might not make it in to the top ten by season's end.  Am I reading that right?

Denison would likely have to beat Wabash, I guess.  If they do, a two loss Wabash team get ranked higher than a two loss (7 win) IWU team?

Not that it matters much.  I only ask as it helps Wheaton's & NCC's playoff profile by getting them a RRO win which may give them an ever so slightly better matchup in round  one or two.  Yes, I know I am projecting.

Last question - What would happen to the NRFP if there is a typical Saturday weather day in Kenosha (65 and sunny the forecast right now though) and Carthage pulls one out?

[wally_wabash]

Looking at the NRFP it seems IWU might not make it in to the top ten by season's end.  Am I reading that right?

I think IWU is closer than it appears.  They are on three ballots and the team they are tied with (Carthage) is only on one ballot.  Beyond those three ballots that have IWU in the 10 slot, I think most of the voters probably have IWU in the on deck circle as soon as somebody else loses- and Wabash or Denison are guaranteed to lose this weekend, which is going to open up a spot, probably for IWU. 

Denison would likely have to beat Wabash, I guess.  If they do, a two loss Wabash team get ranked higher than a two loss (7 win) IWU team?

Touched on this above, but I think the loser of Wabash/Denison goes out of the NRFP top 10.  I don't think Wabash with two losses would be ranked ahead of IWU, particularly if IWU is riding a five game win streak to close the season. 

Last question - What would happen to the NRFP if there is a typical Saturday weather day in Kenosha (65 and sunny the forecast right now though) and Carthage pulls one out?

Full meltdown. 

[USee]

There is some intrigue in the games this weekend, especially North Central @ Carthage. While some may think the Redmen are just another team in the pack of CCIW runner-ups, this is a dangerous Carthage team and they present a challenge the Cardinals have not faced all season. Next to @NCC playing in Kenosha this year is the hardest place to play. Carthage has a defense that matches up well with NCC and Broc Rutter will be tested unlike any game to date. The Redmen bring pressure and play man to man coverage in the secondary. Most teams put together a blitz package and figure if they execute that package of 7-8 plays they will get the other team out of their blitz package. Not the case with Carthage. They are committed to it and will play it for 4 quarters. Their secondary has a season's worth of practice defending the routes teams run vs blitz and man and they are good at it. It can wear a team down.

Offensively, the Redmen don't have enough playmakers to score a lot of points against NCC. Cobbs is an all CCIW player and can go deep any time. They also do a good job getting him the ball. They lack playmakers at the other receiver spots as well as at QB. North Central will not be able to run the ball on Carthage effectively IMO.  I also don't think Carthage can score many points against this NCC defense.

North Central is probably salivating at the chance to have Broc Rutter and one of the better WR corps in D3 go against this Carthage D and there is a chance these big WR have a field day and it's a blowout. There is also a chance that Carthage's persistence with their plan on both Offense (run, run, and run some more.....then throw it deep to Cobbs) and Defense wears on NCC and if this is still a game in the second half I would be very anxious as a Cardinal fan.

So more than a little intrigue in Kenosha this weekend

[Kovo]

There is some intrigue in the games this weekend, especially North Central @ Carthage. While some may think the Redmen are just another team in the pack of CCIW runner-ups, this is a dangerous Carthage team and they present a challenge the Cardinals have not faced all season. Next to @NCC playing in Kenosha this year is the hardest place to play. Carthage has a defense that matches up well with NCC and Broc Rutter will be tested unlike any game to date. The Redmen bring pressure and play man to man coverage in the secondary. Most teams put together a blitz package and figure if they execute that package of 7-8 plays they will get the other team out of their blitz package. Not the case with Carthage. They are committed to it and will play it for 4 quarters. Their secondary has a season's worth of practice defending the routes teams run vs blitz and man and they are good at it. It can wear a team down.

Offensively, the Redmen don't have enough playmakers to score a lot of points against NCC. Cobbs is an all CCIW player and can go deep any time. They also do a good job getting him the ball. They lack playmakers at the other receiver spots as well as at QB. North Central will not be able to run the ball on Carthage effectively IMO.  I also don't think Carthage can score many points against this NCC defense.

North Central is probably salivating at the chance to have Broc Rutter and one of the better WR corps in D3 go against this Carthage D and there is a chance these big WR have a field day and it's a blowout. There is also a chance that Carthage's persistence with their plan on both Offense (run, run, and run some more.....then throw it deep to Cobbs) and Defense wears on NCC and if this is still a game in the second half I would be very anxious as a Cardinal fan.

So more than a little intrigue in Kenosha this weekend

Pretty much sums up every North Central game that I have watched for the past 30 years.

[USee]

Regional Rankings released:

With link and comments:  http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/first-regional-ranking

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1
6   Denison   7-1   7-1
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1

[Pat Coleman]

With the link: http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/first-regional-ranking

[wally_wabash]

Regional Rankings released:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1
6   Denison   7-1   7-1
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1

Some initial thoughts on this list:

- More or less makes sense.  The RAC decided to promote John Carroll ahead of the NCAC mess which was one thing I was interested to see. 

- Strange that if they're going to rank Rose-Hulman that they wouldn't go ahead and rank Rose-Hulman ahead of Franklin.  The placement of those two teams relative to one another doesn't impact the at-large situation, so why not honor the recent h2h? 

- Why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  I mean, we know why, but per the criteria- seriously, why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  It doesn't make a ton of sense to me given that...

- Wabash is paying a steep, steep price for that SOS.  It's coming up over the last two weeks into something that will look like John Carroll's 0.466 this week (which is good enough for 4th in the absence of any good results), so don't get too crazy, LG fans.  I think Denison looks like they'll stay ranked even if they lose this weekend, which is going to give Wabash a 1-1 vs RROs.  That, plus another SOS boost for playing DePauw, and a John Carroll loss coming in two weeks means that Wabash could very well jump up behind Wheaton for that 2nd at large position.  Franklin is the hair in the soup at the moment- I don't really know how they'll move over the last two weeks relative to other teams that have big games left to play. 

And so to conclude my point about JCU/Olivet- if SOS is the thing that knocks Wabash all the way down to 10 on this list (which is totally fair, btw...I don't have an issue with that ranking), then it should be a thing that boosts Olivet (0.556) over John Carroll (0.466).  A 0.090 difference in NCAA SOS is enormous and ought to be honored. 

[D3MAFAN]

Regional Rankings released:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1
6   Denison   7-1   7-1
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1

Some initial thoughts on this list:

- More or less makes sense.  The RAC decided to promote John Carroll ahead of the NCAC mess which was one thing I was interested to see. 

- Strange that if they're going to rank Rose-Hulman that they wouldn't go ahead and rank Rose-Hulman ahead of Franklin.  The placement of those two teams relative to one another doesn't impact the at-large situation, so why not honor the recent h2h? 

- Why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  I mean, we know why, but per the criteria- seriously, why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  It doesn't make a ton of sense to me given that...

- Wabash is paying a steep, steep price for that SOS.  It's coming up over the last two weeks into something that will look like John Carroll's 0.466 this week (which is good enough for 4th in the absence of any good results), so don't get too crazy, LG fans.  I think Denison looks like they'll stay ranked even if they lose this weekend, which is going to give Wabash a 1-1 vs RROs.  That, plus another SOS boost for playing DePauw, and a John Carroll loss coming in two weeks means that Wabash could very well jump up behind Wheaton for that 2nd at large position.  Franklin is the hair in the soup at the moment- I don't really know how they'll move over the last two weeks relative to other teams that have big games left to play. 

And so to conclude my point about JCU/Olivet- if SOS is the thing that knocks Wabash all the way down to 10 on this list (which is totally fair, btw...I don't have an issue with that ranking), then it should be a thing that boosts Olivet (0.556) over John Carroll (0.466).  A 0.090 difference in NCAA SOS is enormous and ought to be honored.

Wally you are going to have to take that up with Kris or Chris 

[USee]

That would be CCIW Commisioner Chris Martin, who is on the North RAC. I agree with Wally. Good analysis.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Congratulations to Greg and all other Cubs fans on the board.  Geez, 108 years!  Alas, I didn't have a TV at the time, so even I can't claim to have last seen them win!

I grew up in Peoria.  My impression was that the town's bball fans were about 40-40 Cubs vs. Cards, with 10% White Sox and 10% other (though that was the impression of a child - I might be way off).  As an insecure, front-running kid, I was a Yankees fan (I outgrew that disease. )  I leaned Cards (I was a Bob Gibson and Lou Brock fan), but also thought it would be cool if the Cubs ever won anything.

And now they have won everything!

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks, Chuck. Weary and wrung-out but ecstatic tonight.

[lmitzel]

Congratulations to Greg and all other Cubs fans on the board.  Geez, 108 years!  Alas, I didn't have a TV at the time, so even I can't claim to have last seen them win!

I grew up in Peoria.  My impression was that the town's bball fans were about 40-40 Cubs vs. Cards, with 10% White Sox and 10% other (though that was the impression of a child - I might be way off).  As an insecure, front-running kid, I was a Yankees fan (I outgrew that disease. )  I leaned Cards (I was a Bob Gibson and Lou Brock fan), but also thought it would be cool if the Cubs ever won anything.

And now they have won everything!

To kind of echo Greg, three and a half hours of sleep never felt so good.

[augie77]

This is my 50th year as a diehard Cub fan, and the feeling is golden.