FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

#2 North Central:

Returning Starters: 16

Offense: 8 (5 OL, QB, RB, 1 WR). Key losses: WR Dylan WR Warden, WR Alex Ulmer, 2 Te's. Best players returning: QB Broc Rutter, RB Austin Bruenig, WR Ryan Kuhl, OL Joe Fehrle

Defense 8 (4 DL, 3 LB's, 1 DB). Key losses: C Kibby, C Niklos, S Nalefski. Best players returning: LB Justin Stuursma, LB Tommy Sora, DL Billy Douds, DL Josh Leonard, DB Pat Cravens


The Cardinals are a top 10 team and could easily be a top 5 team with all 5 OL and their super soph QB Broc Rutter returning. Austin Bruenig is a key returner as they were not as efficient running the ball last year for no apparent reason. My concerns are at WR where they have very little experience or depth after Ryan Kuhl and have to replace most of the production at WR. Defensively their front 7 are all back. This group finished as one of the top units in the country with 51 sacks in 12 games. Billy Douds, Justin Stuursma, Tommy Sora, Josh Leonard and Pat Cravens are all great players on an experienced unit. They have to replace both corners and a safety but I suspect the stable is full in Naperville. All the coaches return and there is no reason to think this team won't challenge for the CCIW crown. Due to their lack of experience and depth returning at WR, new faces at DB, and the de-facto title game is in Wheaton, I have them just behind the Thunder in the CCIW race.

Wheaton and North Central have both made significant strides improving their programs to compete on a national level. I see these two teams as definitively better (by a margin) than any other CCIW team right now. They both have the talent and depth to challenge anyone on a national stage. Prediction: 9-1, 7-1

[USee]

#1 Wheaton:

Returning Starters: 19

Offense: 9 (4/5 OL, RB, TE, 3 WR). Key losses: QB's, OL Peter Gibson. Best players returning: RB Sola Olateju, WR Trey Hanley, TE Zach Lindquist,  OL Kyler Kregel

Defense: 10 (4 DL, 2 LB's, 4 Dbs). Key losses: DPOY LB Caleb Ashby. Best players returning: DE Chase Greenlee, DT Noah Spielman, LB Eric Stevenson, C Tyler Sigler

The Thunder will be a top 10 team and have a chance to be better than last year's quarterfinal team. The only real question they have is who will be the QB, which is a big question. They have a talented group vying for the spot so whoever wins the job will have an OL that has 8 players with CCIW starts, a veteran WR group featuring AA TE Zach Lindquist and WR's Trey Hanley/Philip Nichols and one of the better running backs in the country in Sola Olatju. Defensively this team led the nation in sacks last year and has all of their defensive front returning save the DPOY Caleb Ashby. Eric Stevenson, Chase Greenlee, and Tyler Sigler lead what should be the league's top defense again. Wheaton also lost talented coaches (DC and QB/Passing game) but the train keeps on moving with more talent. JJ Clark (DC) is an alum and son of NFL strength coach. Andy Studebaker played 8 years in the NFL and starts his coaching career at his alma mater and Taylor Graham (QB coach) is a former D1 QB and son of NFL QB and Wheaton product Kent Graham.

This Wheaton team will be very good and has the chance, if they answer the QB question, to go as far as any Wheaton team has ever gone in my opinion. Prediction: 10-0, 8-0

[USee]

to summarize my pre-season predictions, here is what I have, based on what I know about each team today:

1. Wheaton 10-0, 8-0
2. North Central  9-1, 7-1
3. Carthage 7-3, 5-3
4. IWU 6-4, 5-3
5. Augie 5-5, 4-4
6. North Park 4-6, 3-5
7. Millikin 3-7, 2-6
8. Elmhurst 3-7, 2-6
9. Carroll 1-9, 0-8

[matblake]

Thanks, USee.  You've whetted my appetite for the upcoming season.  Will be interesting to see where North Park ends up.  Also, you've provided some good data to back it up, but I was surprised by your Carthage pick.  I would have flipped them and IWU, but I suppose that could just be a historical clouding of my viewpoint. 

[HansenRatings]

Updated according to USee's work on returning starters, and with his prediction in the last column:

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference	USee
Wheaton	0.9973	9.5-0.5	7.5-0.5	10-0 (8-0)
NCC	0.9947	8.1-0.9	7.2-0.8	9-1 (7-1)
Carthage	0.8788	6.1-3.9	4.7-3.3	7-3 (5-3)
IWU	0.8756	5.7-4.3	4.7-3.3	6-4 (5-3)
Augustana	0.7747	4.4-5.6	3.8-4.2	5-5 (4-4)
Elmhurst	0.6430	4.0-6.0	2.6-5.4	3-7 (2-6)
North Park	0.6113	3.5-5.5	2.6-5.4	4-6 (3-5)
Millikin	0.4700	2.8-7.2	1.7-6.3	3-7 (2-6)
Carroll	0.4032	1.6-8.4	1.3-6.7	1-9 (0-8)

Hardly any disagreement (pretty much just a disagreement on where Carroll will pick up their 1 win, in conference or out). Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait for the season to have any drama.

[USee]

Thanks, USee.  You've whetted my appetite for the upcoming season.  Will be interesting to see where North Park ends up.  Also, you've provided some good data to back it up, but I was surprised by your Carthage pick.  I would have flipped them and IWU, but I suppose that could just be a historical clouding of my viewpoint.

RE: IWU/Carthage. That was my bias at the start but IWU is losing every skill player on offense save QB and their defense has 1 player returning from a very good front 7. Carthage, on the other hand, has most of their offense returning, including a backup QB that will likely be better than last years starter, and all of their Dline returning from a team that was just behind NCC/Wheaton in stopping the run. Carthage's returning personnel is better than IWU's and remember Carthage was a questionable 4th down pass interference call away from beating IWU last year. This year Carthage will be better but they play Wheaton/NCC/IWU all on the road.

[HAMBO]

Millikin could be the surprise this year.  Rumors about the incoming class indicate both quantity and quality.  Of course it may take a while for freshmen to develop.  Adding the fact that they were very young last year, they will be difficult to predict early on.  Hopefully for them, the surprise is better and not worse.

[matblake]

Wheaton's recruits: http://athletics.wheaton.edu/news/2017/6/7/wheaton-football-welcomes-28-newcomers-for-2017-season.aspx

[USee]

Updated according to USee's work on returning starters, and with his prediction in the last column:

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference	USee
Wheaton	0.9973	9.5-0.5	7.5-0.5	10-0 (8-0)
NCC	0.9947	8.1-0.9	7.2-0.8	9-1 (7-1)
Carthage	0.8788	6.1-3.9	4.7-3.3	7-3 (5-3)
IWU	0.8756	5.7-4.3	4.7-3.3	6-4 (5-3)
Augustana	0.7747	4.4-5.6	3.8-4.2	5-5 (4-4)
Elmhurst	0.6430	4.0-6.0	2.6-5.4	3-7 (2-6)
North Park	0.6113	3.5-5.5	2.6-5.4	4-6 (3-5)
Millikin	0.4700	2.8-7.2	1.7-6.3	3-7 (2-6)
Carroll	0.4032	1.6-8.4	1.3-6.7	1-9 (0-8)

Hardly any disagreement (pretty much just a disagreement on where Carroll will pick up their 1 win, in conference or out). Oh well, I guess we'll have to wait for the season to have any drama.

Thanks Hansen, interesting take. I went out on a limb a bit with Elmhurst, but I think they lost a lot on defense that will be hard to replace and their QB has a large majority of the touches on offense and was not a great producer with the number of opportunities. I think their success last year, absent a serious influx of play makers on both sides of the ball that are new, is unsustainable.

Same with NPU the other way. They have more talent returning than any time  I can remember. I think their backsliding last year was a statistical anomaly driven by the poor play from the QB (not sure why--could have been playing injured) that, given the number of returning starters, almost has to revert.

And lest anyone think I am a homer with my Wheaton pick over NCC, check my predictions last year.....The game this year is in Wheaton and while NCC has a big advantage at QB, Wheaton has depth and experience at literally every position and NCC has serious holes at WR and DB. I am less concerned about DB because they have a stable of them on the roster but they only list 6 WR's on the 2017 roster (which does not include newcomers yet). For a spread offense that has at least 3 WR's on the field at a time, that's a problem. In addition their starting TE is not coming back. So edge to Wheaton.

[USee]

Wheaton's recruits: http://athletics.wheaton.edu/news/2017/6/7/wheaton-football-welcomes-28-newcomers-for-2017-season.aspx

This kid is impressive and by far my new favorite uniforms.

http://www.hudl.com/profile/6439907/dallas-mcrae

[matblake]

And lest anyone think I am a homer with my Wheaton pick over NCC, check my predictions last year.....The game this year is in Wheaton and while NCC has a big advantage at QB, Wheaton has depth and experience at literally every position and NCC has serious holes at WR and DB. I am less concerned about DB because they have a stable of them on the roster but they only list 6 WR's on the 2017 roster (which does not include newcomers yet). For a spread offense that has at least 3 WR's on the field at a time, that's a problem. In addition their starting TE is not coming back. So edge to Wheaton.

No worries USee.  I think you are much harder (or realistic depending on your point of view) on the Orange and Blue than the rest of us Thunder supporters.

[Gregory Sager]

#6 North Park:

Returning Starters: 20

Offense: 10 (5 OL, 4 WR, 1 RB). Key losses: QB TD Conway. Best players returning: WR Devin Childress

Defense: 10 (3 DL, 4 LB's, 3 DB's). Key losses: S Frantz Dorcely. Best players returning: LB Chaun Maiava, C David Simmons

Expectations were much higher for NPU going into 2016 than the actual results. With 20 starters back from last year's team I suspect those expectations, at least internally, are back. NPU was better than their record indicated last year. Two stats tell the story in my opinion. Turnovers and passing efficiency. NPU's defense had the 2nd highest number of takeaways in the conference last year with 25. The next best team had 20 (Wheaton). The problem is NPU turned it over a league high 30 times last year and the next worst team had 20 (IWU). The other statistic is the passing game numbers. Worst in the league 48% completion % and 18 INTS on just 11 TD's. Those 30 turnovers put NPU's defense on the field more than any other team in the league and kept them from converting on drives. NPU is talented. WR Devin Childress and LB Chaun Maiava are two of the best players in the league at their positions and the Vikings have 20 starters back. If they can get better play from the QB position this year (thereby turning it over less, keeping the D off the field, and scoring more points), they will be much better than they were a year ago. Prediction 4-6, 3-5

Wasn't sure if it was mentioned previously that he had declared, but NPU WR Devin Childress went undrafted as an early entry into the NFL Draft...

He got bad advice somewhere.

USee,

Not sure you saw my post above from April.   Does this change your thoughts on where NPU falls?

I don't have any idea what's going on w Childress. I am going under the assumption that he is returning to NPU, which may be wrong. Even if it is wrong, my analysis doesn't change much. NPU was better than 0-8 last year and if they get better QB play this year, they will be a better team. Losing a talent like Childress, if that's the case, is probably worth at least 1 more win and likely 2 but in my view that just limits their upside. The other variables were such a big factor for NPU last year that any modest improvement in turnovers, offensive efficiency, and even special teams, will result in 3-4 wins given the level of talent in the program.

If everything improves AND Childress is added to the mix, NPU could be a 5-5 team in my opinion. All that is based on backward looking data, with no visibility for me as to who is/isn't returning (e.g. I have no idea their QB depth, recruit quality, other players returning/not returning, 5th year returnees, etc)

Finally, Greg is the resident insider for NPU and, while I don't take his silence as any kind of implicit agreement with my views, I do think he would address any factual mistakes in my post.

Devin Childress "didn't get bad advice somewhere," CA. This was all his doing.

It's not as though he was completely overlooked, either. He did get an invite to a predraft camp at Notre Dame. But the scouts didn't give him any realistic hope of getting drafted, and nobody's gonna take a flier on a D3 guy who comes out early -- so "bad advice" doesn't enter into it.

It's not as though he was putting all of his eggs into one basket, or that he is heedless or foolish or doesn't have his head on straight. He is, after all, an Academic All-CCIW selection. When he graduates next May, he'll more than likely be wearing honor cords around his neck at commencement. He's also getting married next year, so he has that to look forward to and prepare for. He's a smart and likeable young man, and I have no doubt that he'll be a success at whatever he chooses to do with his life. He's just not an NFL wide receiver, that's all.

The way I look at it, he didn't really want to play his senior season, or he wouldn't have done this. He's not the first talented CCIW athlete to forego a year of playing eligibility, and he won't be the last.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park's first batch of deposits:

James Lauscar	LB	Palm Beach Central	Lake Worth, FL
Corey Anderson	LB	Kenwood	Chicago, IL
Joe Reviere	DB	Countryside	Oldsmar, FL
Daniel Asotasi	LB	Kapaa	Kapaa, HI
Brandon Basker	LB	College Park	Pleasant Hill, CA
Jaison Kirk	QB	Rauner Prep	Chicago, IL
Daniel Caez	UT	Roosevelt	Chicago, IL
Joey Conway	DB	Grant	Lake Villa, IL
Matt Donoghue	OL/DL	Buffalo Grove	Arlington Heights, IL
Manny Trueba	WR	Hialeah	Hialeah, FL
Nainoa Rosehill	OL/DL	Kamehameha	Hilo, HI
Willie Johnson	DB	Vocational	Chicago, IL
Noah Reich	K	Laly	Naples, FL
Rush Asing	OL	Damien	Kailua, HI
Trent Tavares	DB	Hanokaa	Hawi, HI
Rondy Powell	DL	Columbus	Coral Gables, FL
Jeremiah Madden	RB	Kenosha St. Joseph	Beach Park, IL
Chris Dobbs	OL	Uplift	Chicago, IL
Jacob Hardie	OL	Richards	Chicago Ridge, IL
Josh Rito	WR	Cardinal Gibbons	Coral Springs, FL
Kekoa Kaopuiki	DB	Kapolei	Kapolei, HI
Yoan Castellanos	RB/DB	Hialeah Gardens	Hialeah, FL
Victor Cerda*	DB	Schurz / Eureka	Chicago, IL
Oshay Reynolds	RB	Roosevelt	Chicago, IL
Caleb Putman	WR	Pflugerville	Pflugerville, TX
Ryan Kaneshiro	LB	Hanalani	Waipahu, HI
Lane Self	DB/WR	Creekview	Carrollton, TX
Justin Fune	WR/DB	Waimea	Hanapepe, HI
Grant Borsch	QB	John Glenn	Walkerton, IN
Jalen Williams	LB	Southport	Indianapolis, IN

*junior transfer

There will be a lot of new Vikings who will buying winter coats for the first time. And there will be more to come as well, as several of the recruits upon whom the coaching staff is waiting for deposits are Hawaiians or Samoans.

[CardinalAlum]

#6 North Park:

Returning Starters: 20

Offense: 10 (5 OL, 4 WR, 1 RB). Key losses: QB TD Conway. Best players returning: WR Devin Childress

Defense: 10 (3 DL, 4 LB’s, 3 DB’s). Key losses: S Frantz Dorcely. Best players returning: LB Chaun Maiava, C David Simmons

Expectations were much higher for NPU going into 2016 than the actual results. With 20 starters back from last year’s team I suspect those expectations, at least internally, are back. NPU was better than their record indicated last year. Two stats tell the story in my opinion. Turnovers and passing efficiency. NPU’s defense had the 2nd highest number of takeaways in the conference last year with 25. The next best team had 20 (Wheaton). The problem is NPU turned it over a league high 30 times last year and the next worst team had 20 (IWU). The other statistic is the passing game numbers. Worst in the league 48% completion % and 18 INTS on just 11 TD’s. Those 30 turnovers put NPU’s defense on the field more than any other team in the league and kept them from converting on drives. NPU is talented. WR Devin Childress and LB Chaun Maiava are two of the best players in the league at their positions and the Vikings have 20 starters back. If they can get better play from the QB position this year (thereby turning it over less, keeping the D off the field, and scoring more points), they will be much better than they were a year ago. Prediction 4-6, 3-5

Wasn't sure if it was mentioned previously that he had declared, but NPU WR Devin Childress went undrafted as an early entry into the NFL Draft...

He got bad advice somewhere.

USee,

Not sure you saw my post above from April.   Does this change your thoughts on where NPU falls?

I don't have any idea what's going on w Childress. I am going under the assumption that he is returning to NPU, which may be wrong. Even if it is wrong, my analysis doesn't change much. NPU was better than 0-8 last year and if they get better QB play this year, they will be a better team. Losing a talent like Childress, if that's the case, is probably worth at least 1 more win and likely 2 but in my view that just limits their upside. The other variables were such a big factor for NPU last year that any modest improvement in turnovers, offensive efficiency, and even special teams, will result in 3-4 wins given the level of talent in the program.

If everything improves AND Childress is added to the mix, NPU could be a 5-5 team in my opinion. All that is based on backward looking data, with no visibility for me as to who is/isn't returning (e.g. I have no idea their QB depth, recruit quality, other players returning/not returning, 5th year returnees, etc)

Finally, Greg is the resident insider for NPU and, while I don't take his silence as any kind of implicit agreement with my views, I do think he would address any factual mistakes in my post.

Devin Childress "didn't get bad advice somewhere," CA. This was all his doing.

It's not as though he was completely overlooked, either. He did get an invite to a predraft camp at Notre Dame. But the scouts didn't give him any realistic hope of getting drafted, and nobody's gonna take a flier on a D3 guy who comes out early -- so "bad advice" doesn't enter into it.

It's not as though he was putting all of his eggs into one basket, or that he is heedless or foolish or doesn't have his head on straight. He is, after all, an Academic All-CCIW selection. When he graduates next May, he'll more than likely be wearing honor cords around his neck at commencement. He's also getting married next year, so he has that to look forward to and prepare for. He's a smart and likeable young man, and I have no doubt that he'll be a success at whatever he chooses to do with his life. He's just not an NFL wide receiver, that's all.

The way I look at it, he didn't really want to play his senior season, or he wouldn't have done this. He's not the first talented CCIW athlete to forego a year of playing eligibility, and he won't be the last.

True, but he may be the first and only that will ever declare for the NFL Draft versus just not playing.

[markerickson]

Re: Devin, I have been flummoxed for three years that the Vikings did not send Devin on a fly or post 35+ yards downfield at least three times per game.  I'm thinking Cunningham to Moss that led to the high-scoring Viking success.  Culpepper also benefited greatly from the presence of Moss.  I love these stats:  3 catches, 3 TDs, 163 yards. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbMtrqhyWI0

Use Childress in the same manner that the Vikes used Moss during his early years.  If the Chicago Vikes use Childress in the manner I envision he is league MVP, which will polish his rough diamond into another NFL look.