FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Two huge games this weekend. The chances for IWU and Carthage to win should not be underestimated. I believe both of these teams have better than a punchers chance in defeating NCC and Wheaton.

First the Wheaton v Carthage game:

Carthage returns 19 starters from a team that was 7-3 and easily could have beaten all 3 teams they lost to. If they complete any of their long passes to open receivers last year they win vs Wheaton. But for a bogus PI call against IWU they win that game. I wouldn't expect 6 IWU interceptions this year against NCC. Carthage's strengths match up very well with Wheaton's weaknesses, specifically:

Carthage has an aggressive defense. They play man to man (much of it in your face bump and run) with a single safety and bring pressure with 5 or 6 for 4 quarters. They are great at stopping the run. Wheaton is playing with young quarterbacks who have yet to establish themselves. If I am Carthage, I put a lot of pressure on those WR's to get open and the QB to try and find them. Carthage can stop the run. They have yet to give up a TD and more impressively they have had only 1 trip to the redzone against their defense. To assume that this defense is anything other than a top 20 defense in the nation (because of who they have played to date) would be a big mistake. Wheaton's young QB's will struggle against this veteran defense.  Wining the battle on the perimeter (WR getting open) and at the LOS (holes for #23) will take some of the pressure off.

Carthage runs the ball, a lot, and throws it deep 10x a game. Wheaton's defense can stop the run against anybody. That doesn't scare me. What worries me is Cobbs from Carthage and the 1-2 other deep threats they have. The Thunder are banged up in the secondary and teams that have had success against them can throw it deep. Almost all of Carthage's points this year have come off a big play in the passing game.

So the formula for Carthage this weekend is, stop the run, put pressure on a young QB and get turnovers/field position. 2-run the ball and take their shots deep, hoping to create 21 points. If the Redmen get that number, it's a recipe for an upset.

Overall, my assessment is Carthage is a top 25 team in the country and I would be very surprised if they don't finish with a better record than they had a year ago. Carthage will be an underdog against Wheaton and North Central but they could very well finish this season 10-0 or 7-3. My bet is 8-2. I hope the first 1 is this weekend.

[USee]

NCC v IWU is a similar matchup to Wheaton v Carthage.

IWU is better than I projected them to be. That is due to a couple of factors. One move they made was to put Brinton Wilkey at OLB from safety and the emergence of Kopeke and Staley have been surprising. Wilkey's versatily is a huge asset to this defense. Their DL are also much better than I projected and new DC Jeff McDonald has them bought in to stop the run, limit big plays, and tackle.

On offense we knew their OL and QB positions were solid. Morgan Alexander has been  a very productive player at RB and the Titans have not turned the ball over this year (1 fumble late in game vs NWU). They have been efficient with their opportunities in the redzone (5 TD's in 6 visits).

If you can stop the run and protect the football, you will have a chance to win most games.

North Central, despite the 126 yds from Austin Bruenig, still struggles to run the ball in their first game averaging a meager 3.5 yds per attempt (37 att for 130 yds after taking out a 40 yd loss for a punt snap over head of punter). They still have arguably the best QB in D3 and an absolute monster at WR in Ryan Kuhl, but IWU can game plan to take away Kuhl and make NCC beat them in other areas. Remember last year NCC won on the back of 6 Bauer INT's. I expect a much closer game Saturday.

[iwu70]

Thanks, USee, for the assessment.  What you say about Carthage makes a lot of sense and it scares me going forward.  They may be much stronger than we thought too.

I agree that IWU needs to play the tough tough D they've been playing and limit the TOs on Offense, giving themselves a chance to win in Naperville.  Bauer is much improved and the two new IWU RBs are pretty good -- perhaps up there in productivity with last years good RB.  We'll see.

Should be a very interesting defining weekend for the CCIW race.

IWU'70

[USee]

I think we have 4 top 25 teams in the CCIW this year. Those top 4 are as strong as we have maybe ever had as a group and would match up with any leagues top 4.  I don't remember that ever being the case in the CCIW.  We have had 3 too 25 teams several times. Don't remember ever having 4

[79jaybird]

Looking at the NPU/EC game,  a couple of thoughts.

Elmhurst has to find a way to get their defense off the field.  Means holding them to short gains on 1st/2nd down and preventing the Park from having 3rd and short.  Would like to see the D-Line get a little more effective.  On offense,   the Jays need more production from their "skilled" guys.  Orlando cannot be a 1-man show and Elmhurst 1 dimensional.

I think this will stay pretty close, perhaps within 1-2 scores, but if Elmhurst is able to pull off the upset,  they will need to make some quality adjustments at halftime and execute in the second half.

[Gregory Sager]

Looking at the NPU/EC game,  a couple of thoughts.

Elmhurst has to find a way to get their defense off the field.  Means holding them to short gains on 1st/2nd down and preventing the Park from having 3rd and short.  Would like to see the D-Line get a little more effective.  On offense,   the Jays need more production from their "skilled" guys.  Orlando cannot be a 1-man show and Elmhurst 1 dimensional.

I think this will stay pretty close, perhaps within 1-2 scores, but if Elmhurst is able to pull off the upset,  they will need to make some quality adjustments at halftime and execute in the second half.

"Upset"? Based upon what, Mark? This season's records? They're hardly applicable. Last season Elmhurst blew the doors off of the Vikings, 42-10. NPU hasn't beaten a team that wasn't wearing Anderson Ravens livery since the Vikings topped Illinois Wesleyan to end the 2015 season. Massey's got the 'jays as a seven-point favorite, for what that's worth.

I'm not buying the idea that Elmhurst is the underdog. I think it's NPU.

[Gregory Sager]

Speaking of Massey:

Augustana 31, @ Carroll 20	(AC 77%, CU 23%)
@ Wheaton 30, Carthage 16	(WC 80%, CC 20%)
Elmhurst 21, @ North Park 14	(EC 70%, NPU 30%)
@ North Central 28, Illinois Wesleyan 21	(NCC 72%, IWU 28%)

Millikin has the bye.

It's interesting how Ken Massey's HAL 9000 doesn't forecast any particularly close CCIW games this week.

[USee]

I would definitely make NPU the favorite for this game, but not by much. NPU beat Anderson (no surprise) and performed much better than I expected against Midlands. Dissapointing as that loss was, I didn't expect it to be that close. I think NPU is playing well on defense and finding themselves offensively.

I dont' see a lot of positives coming out of Elmhurst. They have given up a lot of points to some average teams and Emilio Estevez can't carry them on offense forever.

I see NPU by 7 Saturday.

[Gregory Sager]

Emilio Estevez? I think not. Orlando Hernandez is obviously the long-lost son of Scott Baio.

I know it's too early to give Massey much credence, but I think that Ken's computer got the line right for this one. The 'jays have a big advantage at the most important position on the field.

Of course, I'll be more than happy for you to prove me wrong, Obi-Wan.

[USee]

Emilio Estevez? I think not. Orlando Hernandez is obviously the long-lost son of Scott Baio.

I know it's too early to give Massey much credence, but I think that Ken's computer got the line right for this one. The 'jays have a big advantage at the most important position on the field.

Of course, I'll be more than happy for you to prove me wrong, Obi-Wan.

HansenRatings has this as a pick em, FYI

[USee]

NCC v IWU is a similar matchup to Wheaton v Carthage.

IWU is better than I projected them to be. That is due to a couple of factors. One move they made was to put Brinton Wilkey at OLB from safety and the emergence of Kopeke and Staley have been surprising. Wilkey's versatily is a huge asset to this defense. Their DL are also much better than I projected and new DC Jeff McDonald has them bought in to stop the run, limit big plays, and tackle.

On offense we knew their OL and QB positions were solid. Morgan Alexander has been  a very productive player at RB and the Titans have not turned the ball over this year (1 fumble late in game vs NWU). They have been efficient with their opportunities in the redzone (5 TD's in 6 visits).

If you can stop the run and protect the football, you will have a chance to win most games.

North Central, despite the 126 yds from Austin Bruenig, still struggles to run the ball in their first game averaging a meager 3.5 yds per attempt (37 att for 130 yds after taking out a 40 yd loss for a punt snap over head of punter). They still have arguably the best QB in D3 and an absolute monster at WR in Ryan Kuhl, but IWU can game plan to take away Kuhl and make NCC beat them in other areas. Remember last year NCC won on the back of 6 Bauer INT's. I expect a much closer game Saturday.

I should note another big personnel move NCC made that has strengthened their team is to move Justin Stuursma back to Safety. They were depleted in the secondary after last year and Stuursma was a safety 2 years ago but spent last year as an OLB, earning all conference honors. This move frees up DJ Warkenthien to be a full time LB along w Tommy Sora and Tyler Oakley. NCC's defense is much stronger after this move.

[79jaybird]

Perhaps,  I just have a gut feeling Elmhurst is going to have their hands full Saturday. 

Side note-  saw on the CCIW board Bob Bonn at Carthage plans to retire.  I had the joy of meeting Bob a few times over the years.  He is a class act and a big promoter of D-III athletics.  I hope his successor is just as solid.  Wish you the best in your retirement Bob.

[AndOne]

Speaking of Massey:

Augustana 31, @ Carroll 20	(AC 77%, CU 23%)
@ Wheaton 30, Carthage 16	(WC 80%, CC 20%)
Elmhurst 21, @ North Park 14	(EC 70%, NPU 30%)
@ North Central 28, Illinois Wesleyan 21	(NCC 72%, IWU 28%)

Millikin has the bye.

It's interesting how Ken Massey's HAL 9000 doesn't forecast any particularly close CCIW games this week.

I think the AC/Carroll and WC/Carthage games are about right.
It seems the EC/NP game is pretty much a toss-up. Does either team have an especially good FG kicker?
While there is no reason NCC should't be confident, I doubt that they are approaching the game with the idea that IWU has less than a 1/3 chance to come away with a W. That would suggest the Cardinals only need to have a pretty average game to be victorious. I'm sure the coaches have impressed upon the team that maximum effort and execution throughout will be the only way they will even approach having a 72% chance of winning.

[USee]

I am a Wheaton guy (as a fan and in principle--so I don't typically wager) but I'll take Carthage and 14 points for as much as anyone wants. Any takers?

[Neverwas]

I will take that bet.  Lunch at McCully during the Homecoming Game.