FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

Since I arrived on campus in 1981 until tonight, I have never read or heard that "North Park has a good defense" though I see the D is better than usual.  Which reminds me, a couple of long passes to the tall (6' 4"?) WR was the difference-maker in the Big Blue's victory at Holmgren Field.  The game was not a blowout by any means, and has had me shaking my head about the praise given to the Big Blue the past few weeks. I do not see them anywhere close to the programs that have dominated the CCIW for the last decade.

Um - Oct 7, 2017:  Millikin 35, Wheaton 31.  Not anywhere close??!!

[markerickson]

Just look at the big picture of final conference standings like me.

[Mr. Ypsi]

ASSUMING  that IWU beats them Saturday (NOT guaranteed), Millikin would be presumed to be fifth in the conference (by record, they would tie Carthage, but Carthage has the h-t-h).  But this year, at least, they seem MUCH closer to the top than the bottom.

[Gregory Sager]

Since I arrived on campus in 1981 until tonight, I have never read or heard that "North Park has a good defense" though I see the D is better than usual.

North Park has a good defense ... not a great one, but a good one. Aside from opponent 3rd-down conversions, the Vikings are in the middle of the CCIW pack statistically in every defensive category. Consider that in light of the fact that NPU has the worst offense in the league, an offense that constantly exposes the NPU defense via a seemingly endless string of three-and-outs. (North Park leads the league in punts, has a whopping 29 fewer first downs than the next-worst team in that category, Carroll, and is next-to-last in time of possession, ahead of only pass-happy Millikin.) To be middle of the pack in all of those categories in spite of all the extra playing time and the bad field position with which the Vikings defense has to deal is a tribute to the pretty decent performances that they've gotten on that side of the ball. Only two teams have really been able to cut the NPU defense down to size this season, North Central and Wheaton.

Which reminds me, a couple of long passes to the tall (6' 4"?) WR was the difference-maker in the Big Blue's victory at Holmgren Field.

Yes, as I said at the time I believe that Jordan Smith is the best receiver in the CCIW. He leads the league in receiving yards per game, is second in yards per catch, and has practically lapped the field in touchdown catches (he has 13; the next-closest CCIW player is Jack Healy of Illinois Wesleyan, who has eight).

The game was not a blowout by any means, and has had me shaking my head about the praise given to the Big Blue the past few weeks.  I do not see them anywhere close to the programs that have dominated the CCIW for the last decade.

Nobody said that Millikin was the new Mount Union, Mark. I said that the Big Blue have dramatically improved, which anyone can plainly see is the case, and that they're comparable to the Millikin teams of the early Niebuhr era, which they are. Those Niebuhr teams typically finished with two or three losses, which is where the Big Blue will end up this year.

Just look at the big picture of final conference standings like me.

Yes, but why are you calling out Chuck for basing his conclusion about Millikin on a one-game sample when you did the same thing in your earlier post, referencing the MU @ NPU game?

ASSUMING  that IWU beats them Saturday (NOT guaranteed), Millikin would be presumed to be fifth in the conference (by record, they would tie Carthage, but Carthage has the h-t-h).  But this year, at least, they seem MUCH closer to the top than the bottom.

The Big Blue will be much closer to the top than to the bottom, Chuck. A loss to Illinois Wesleyan would give MU a 5-3 finish in the league, two games behind the champion(s) at 7-1 and four games ahead of last-place Augustana (and, barring an outbreak of bubonic plague in the Wheaton locker room, Carroll as well) at 1-7.

More importantly, the Big Blue would finish 7-3 overall; most seasons 7-3 is the mark of a pretty good CCIW team, and 2017 is certainly no exception.

[USee]

Nico Stepina is having a year that puts him in the POY conversation. And Jordan Smith is the best WR in the league, by a pretty good margin. Stepina (aided by a bad call on the final drive  ) are the reason Millikin beat Wheaton. The Big Blue have made dramatic strides in their program in the last two years and they are a very young team.

[HAMBO]

If IWU defeats Millikin Saturday, which they should, then NC and IWU would both end the season 9-1 and both should end up playing in the post season.  However, if MU should happen to upset IWU, then there would be a 3-way tie for 2nd between MU, IWU, and Wheaton.  Question:  Since MU beat both of them, should/would they be considered for an at-large bid?

[USee]

Well, standing in the CCIW are not a criteria for playoff selection. But from a practical standpoint it would stand to reason that 2 loss teams should be ranked against other 2 loss teams primarily by head to head if it exists, so yes I would think Millikin would rank ahead of IWU and Wheaton in the North Rankings. That said, that only gets them to the table if no one else is ahead of them in the North and Depauw currently is. And if Millikin wins/Depauw loses, it may well be the North's top Pool C team is Millikin. That also doesn't get them in. They have the teams from other regions to be compared with.

The process is talked about in the Pool C thread but the top 4 Pool C teams from each region are compared (North, South, East, West) and one is selected. Then the next team from the selected teams' region replaces them and the comparison continues. 4 teams are compared at a time. Millikin would need to be selected among the others and there are plenty of 1 loss teams and even, potentially, an undefeated team competing for 5 spots.

The short answer is a two loss team is long odds to make the tournament this year.

[thunderdog]

If IWU defeats Millikin Saturday, which they should, then NC and IWU would both end the season 9-1 and both should end up playing in the post season.  However, if MU should happen to upset IWU, then there would be a 3-way tie for 2nd between MU, IWU, and Wheaton.  Question:  Since MU beat both of them, should/would they be considered for an at-large bid?

Hambo,

Good question. Should MU be considered? Yes. Will they? Probably not. IMO, if Millikin beats IWU, causing a 3 way tie for 2nd place, all teams sitting at 8-2, this would result in the CCIW getting shut-out completely of the pool C bids. As things stand right now, IWU finishing 9-1, still needs help from Wabash (beating DePauw).

The RACs seem to prefer conferences where there's an undefeated champion and a 1 loss 2nd place team. That statement is not a fact by any means, it's just my opinion. It's the only explanation for why DePauw sits ahead of IWU currently in the North Regionals. I'd like to see another example of a team, any team, that doesn't get punished for a 6-52 beat-down to the conference champ. DePauw has gotten a complete pass for the loss, it's crazy. Another example of the RAC's preference for conferences that finish with an undefeated champ and a 1-loss 2nd place team is out West, where 8-1 Lake Forest sits 9th in the region. 2 teams from the Midwest Conference? For real?

In fact, if Millikin beats IWU and Wabash beats DePauw, I think this would mean the North region as a whole wouldn't get a single pool C bid. All the contenders would have 2 losses. Wabash, DePauw, Hope, Millikin, IWU, and Wheaton. We could all argue till we're blue in the face over the order of these teams, but there are too many potential undefeated and 1-loss teams in the East (Springfield & Frostburg St) and the South (Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Centre) to think a 2-loss North region team would get a pool C under these circumstances.

[USee]

I'd like to see another example of a team, any team, that doesn't get punished for a 6-52 beat-down to the conference champ.

Haven't seen a 40+ pt beat down but a 1-Loss OAC runner up with a 20+ margin of defeat to Mt Union used to be (and still probably is) an absolutely Pool C lock for the tournament. Happened in 99, 00,02,03,05,06,07,08,10,13.

[CardinalAlum]

Best case scenario for Wheaton to get in?   I still believe Wheaton is a top 10 team in the country and if they find their way in to the playoffs, they will make some noise.   There isn't a #1 or 2 seed that would want to play them.   Just my opinion.

[Gregory Sager]

I'd like to see another example of a team, any team, that doesn't get punished for a 6-52 beat-down to the conference champ. DePauw has gotten a complete pass for the loss, it's crazy.

Scoring margins aren't part of the committee's selection criteria. In other words, it's irrelevant whether DePauw lost to Wittenberg 52-6 or 7-6.

[thunderdog]

Best case scenario for Wheaton to get in?   I still believe Wheaton is a top 10 team in the country and if they find their way in to the playoffs, they will make some noise.   There isn't a #1 or 2 seed that would want to play them.   Just my opinion.

Ok, here goes:

1) Wabash MUST beat DePauw. Pretty obvious. Right now WC sits #3 within just the North region for a potential pool C. DePauw would need to lose and then be ranked lower than WC, which given the RACs rationale for things so far this year, is no gimme (even though it should be, IMO)

2) DelVal MUST beat Widener. If Widener wins, they steal the AQ from DelVal, pushing DelVal into pool C consideration. Given DelVal is #1 in the East, unless they lost really ugly, they'd still be a very strong candidate for a pool C, hurting WC's chances significantly.

3) IWU MUST beat Millikin. Already discussed the logjam of 8-2 teams if Millikin wins. IWU would need to be the first team up in the North, with WC right behind.

Then I think WC would need at least 1, preferably 2, of these 3 things to happen:

4) Springfield loses to MIT. If Springfield wins, their undefeated. They'd either be a lock for the 2nd pool B bid behind UMBH, or if that goes to Hardin-Simmons, they'd be a virtual lock for a pool C. If they lose, it's possible Springfield misses the playoffs entirely, opening a spot.

5) Case Western Reserve loses to Carnegie Mellon. In the PAC, Washington & Jefferson is in the driver's seat for the AQ, pushing CWR into pool C consideration. If undefeated, they're a lock, if not, they're in the same boat as Springfield, IMO.

6) Frostburg St loses to Salisbury. Currently Frosty is a solid candidate for the last pool C spot, if they lose, they're done.


So, IMO, if the top 3 happen, and 1-2 of the bottom 3 happen, then that gets WC to the table. What happens from there, who knows... But I don't think it's a stretch to consider WC the top 2-loss team in the country. A 4 point loss to IWU in the final seconds, a 3 point loss to Millikin in the final seconds (I've already shared my opinions on both those losses) and then a solid victory over the CCIW's AQ (most likely) in North Central. I don't think any other 2 loss team will have the same quality of win that WC has over NCC.

[thunderdog]

I'd like to see another example of a team, any team, that doesn't get punished for a 6-52 beat-down to the conference champ. DePauw has gotten a complete pass for the loss, it's crazy.

Scoring margins aren't part of the committee's selection criteria. In other words, it's irrelevant whether DePauw lost to Wittenberg 52-6 or 7-6.

I know scoring margin isn't specifically mentioned in the criteria, but that's absurd to think it's not a factor.

[thunder38]

Best case scenario for Wheaton to get in?   I still believe Wheaton is a top 10 team in the country and if they find their way in to the playoffs, they will make some noise.   There isn't a #1 or 2 seed that would want to play them.   Just my opinion.

I think if Wabash can blowout DePauw then maybe there could be enough doubt from the committee on DPU that Wheaton could jump them. It's absurd that DePauw is still held in such high standing with the committee in regards to IWU that the same argument occurs with a two-loss DPU vs. Wheaton. This is also assuming IWU over Millikin.

At this point out of the region, you're rooting for Carnegie Mellon over Case (South), Salisbury over Frostburg (East) and UWRF over UWL (West) for helpers but if MIT can top Spingfield, I think Wheaton may find itself preparing for an 11th opponent this year. Given the growth of the offense over the last 2.5 games, I agree with you CardinalAlum, Wheaton becomes a very tough playoff draw capable of a 2008-like postseason run.

[USee]

I'd take my chances if UWL and Wheaton are at the table at the same time. Heck I'd take my chances if we could just get Wheaton to the table.

I am concerned that the same rationale (whatever it is) that keeps IWU Behind Depauw will keep Wheaton behind Depauw when they become a 2 loss team this weekend.