FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

So given this (through) analysis,  am I correct in deducing that Wheaton has a 0% chance of making playoffs after the results of today?

It looks like Wheaton will get to the table.  DePauw losing to Wabash was very significant - IWU will certainly jump DePauw in the North regional rankings, and Wheaton should too. 

The timing of when IWU gets picked is big for whatever chances Wheaton has.  IWU will be on the board in the first round of the Pool C process as the North's top Pool C candidate.  I am not familiar enough with the numbers of all of the top Pool C candidates to speak totally intelligently about this, but it seems to me that IWU will get selected quickly.  As soon as IWU gets picked, Wheaton hits the board (assuming Wheaton is regionally ranked ahead of DePauw).  So the Thunder will get stacked up vs the other Pool C candidates as the process plays out.  Wheaton's SOS and the win over North Central could be enough for the committee to go that route over a 1-loss team?

I think there is some kind of chance here...outside chance, but possible?

[ncc_fan]

Wheaton's SOS dropped to 0.507 today, and DePauw's went up to 0.532.  What will the committee do with that?  Last week they kept DePauw above IWU, and the only thing in DePauw's favor was a SOS differential of 0.015.

[Titan Q]

Wheaton's SOS dropped to 0.507 today, and DePauw's went up to 0.532.  What will the committee do with that?

That new SOS number is a big problem for Wheaton.

But I still think Wheaton is the stronger Pool C candidate.  The win over NCC is way better than anything on DePauw's resume.  But...the North committee was ranking DePauw ahead of IWU (which was ridiculous to me) so they love something about DePauw.

DePauw wasn't even competitive against Wittenberg - 52-6.

[Titan Q]

If you are the North RAC, you have to ask yourself which team (Wheaton/DePauw) has the best chance nationally in the Pool C process.  Both have 2 losses.  To me, for a 2-loss team to get picked, something has to jump out.  For DePauw I just don't see anything on the resume that would get them selected for that 5th (final) Pool C spot.  Wheaton would at least have a chance because the Thunder have the NCC win and the near win over IWU.

If the North RAC wants to give the region the best chance for a second Pool C (seems like that is their job), they will rank Wheaton ahead of DePauw.

I'm really interested to see how this plays out.

[matblake]

The National committee isn't going to put 3 teams from the same conference if there is a team with an identical record and a higher SOS available from another conference IMO. The circumstances basically rule it out. There just wasn't enough Pool B carnage to allow it. That said, I hope I'm wrong.

[Titan Q]

The National committee isn't going to put 3 teams from the same conference if there is a team with an identical record and a higher SOS available from another conference IMO. The circumstances basically rule it out. There just wasn't enough Pool B carnage to allow it. That said, I hope I'm wrong.

There are 2 layers of drama with Wheaton:

1. Will they be the North's second highest ranked Pool C candidate? (Will they get to the table?)
2. Would they have any chance in the national process?

I say 75% chance #1 is yes.  But where Wheaton stacks up nationally I am not sure - I would have to better understand the numbers of the top Pool C candidates.

[thunderdog]

It's highly likely Wheaton will be in the 2nd pool C spot in the North behind IWU. If DePauw is still ranked ahead of Wheaton in the updated Regionals, then something is very very wrong. IMO, DePauw should borderline fall off the rankings entirely, and should definitely be ranked behind (currently) unranked Wabash. DePauw and Wabash have the same record, Wabash won head-to-head, Wabash has a competitive 14-21 loss to NCAC champ Witt, DePauw got blitzed 6-52 by Witt. What am I missing? It's a no brainer that Wabash should be ahead of DePauw. Plus, one of the selection criteria is "performance in the final 25% of the season" meaning ending the season with a loss is a big deal...

So yes, Wheaton should be "up for consideration" by the end of pool C #3 spot at the latest. I have the top 3 being (in no particular order)- SJU, IWU, Springfield/Hardin-Simmons (whichever one doesn't get the 2nd pool B spot).

4th spot goes to Case Western by virtue of being a very unfortunate (for Thunder fans) 10-0. If u aren't familiar with how the Case Western @ Carnegie Mellon game ended, Wow. It totally messed with this Thunder fan's emotions in a way that's hard to explain...

Final spot comes down to 8-2 Wheaton vs 9-1 Frostburg St in the East. Similar SOS, .499 for Frosty vs .507 for Wheaton. Wheaton will be 1-1 RRO with possibly the most impressive win of the season over CCIW AQ North Central. Frosty will be 0-1 with a tight 24-27 OT loss to NJAC champ Wesley. Will the better SOS # and better RRO # be enough to overcome the 2nd loss?

We find out tomorrow.

[Titan Q]

It's highly likely Wheaton will be in the 2nd pool C spot in the North behind IWU. If DePauw is still ranked ahead of Wheaton in the updated Regionals, then something is very very wrong. IMO, DePauw should borderline fall off the rankings entirely, and should definitely be ranked behind (currently) unranked Wabash. DePauw and Wabash have the same record, Wabash won head-to-head, Wabash has a competitive 14-21 loss to NCAC champ Witt, DePauw got blitzed 6-52 by Witt. What am I missing? It's a no brainer that Wabash should be ahead of DePauw. Plus, one of the selection criteria is "performance in the final 25% of the season" meaning ending the season with a loss is a big deal...

So yes, Wheaton should be "up for consideration" by the end of pool C #3 spot at the latest. I have the top 3 being (in no particular order)- SJU, IWU, Springfield/Hardin-Simmons (whichever one doesn't get the 2nd pool B spot).

4th spot goes to Case Western by virtue of being a very unfortunate (for Thunder fans) 10-0. If u aren't familiar with how the Case Western @ Carnegie Mellon game ended, Wow. It totally messed with this Thunder fan's emotions in a way that's hard to explain...

Final spot comes down to 8-2 Wheaton vs 9-1 Frostburg St in the East. Similar SOS, .499 for Frosty vs .507 for Wheaton. Wheaton will be 1-1 RRO with possibly the most impressive win of the season over CCIW AQ North Central. Frosty will be 0-1 with a tight 24-27 OT loss to NJAC champ Wesley. Will the better SOS # and better RRO # be enough to overcome the 2nd loss?

We find out tomorrow.

I think there is a better chance of Wabash sliding in and being ranked ahead of Wheaton than there is DePauw. I think DePauw is done. 

I do think Wheaton will be the North's 2nd Pool C candidate.

And I think the Thunder are very much in this thing at the national level.  Just a matter of what the national committee is looking for in pick #5.

Now that I understand the big picture better, wow was that CWRU finish huge (in a bad way) for Wheaton.  Unbelievable.

[tf37]

It's highly likely Wheaton will be in the 2nd pool C spot in the North behind IWU. If DePauw is still ranked ahead of Wheaton in the updated Regionals, then something is very very wrong. IMO, DePauw should borderline fall off the rankings entirely, and should definitely be ranked behind (currently) unranked Wabash. DePauw and Wabash have the same record, Wabash won head-to-head, Wabash has a competitive 14-21 loss to NCAC champ Witt, DePauw got blitzed 6-52 by Witt. What am I missing? It's a no brainer that Wabash should be ahead of DePauw. Plus, one of the selection criteria is "performance in the final 25% of the season" meaning ending the season with a loss is a big deal...

So yes, Wheaton should be "up for consideration" by the end of pool C #3 spot at the latest. I have the top 3 being (in no particular order)- SJU, IWU, Springfield/Hardin-Simmons (whichever one doesn't get the 2nd pool B spot).

4th spot goes to Case Western by virtue of being a very unfortunate (for Thunder fans) 10-0. If u aren't familiar with how the Case Western @ Carnegie Mellon game ended, Wow. It totally messed with this Thunder fan's emotions in a way that's hard to explain...

Final spot comes down to 8-2 Wheaton vs 9-1 Frostburg St in the East. Similar SOS, .499 for Frosty vs .507 for Wheaton. Wheaton will be 1-1 RRO with possibly the most impressive win of the season over CCIW AQ North Central. Frosty will be 0-1 with a tight 24-27 OT loss to NJAC champ Wesley. Will the better SOS # and better RRO # be enough to overcome the 2nd loss?

We find out tomorrow.

Nice analysis thunderdog.

And I agree,  the end of the CWRU @ CMU was a bit hard to swallow. 

Don't forget the most likely West team is UW-LAX, and they have quite a SOS advantage. After the results today, I don't think UWW jumps into the ranking as C-M should stay ahead of them after their respectable showing against St. John's.  Thus Wheaton would still be the only team with a RRO win.

And not that it matters, but I think very few team would want to face Wheaton in the first round.

[thunderdog]

Huge shout-out to 2 of the All-Time Wheaton & CCIW greats: RB #23 Sola Olateju and the man he surpassed on the Wheaton career rushing list, RB #38 Pedro Arruza.

From the recap on Wheaton's site:

"Sola Olateju ran for a career-high 273 yards today, with four touchdowns. The Thunder running back now has 3,194 career rushing yards to break Pedro Arruza's (1992-95) long-standing school record of 3,179 career rushing yards. Olateju and Arruza are the only running backs in Wheaton history to surpass the 3,000-yard milestone in a career."

I'd be very curious to see the YACs for both of these studs throughout their careers. Sola may be the only RB that comes close to (and possibly surpasses) Pedro in broken tackles over their careers.

Can't say enough about Sola. Talk about a young man that just got better and better each year. The first time I noticed Sola's greatness (probably later than most did) was in the 2nd round playoff game in 2015 against one of the storied d3 programs, UWW. His explosiveness, strength, speed, and athleticism stood out big time that game... against a top notch Warhawk defense.

What a phenomenal career! Hopefully, it's not over just yet...

[thunderdog]

Don't forget the most likely West team is UW-LAX, and they have quite a SOS advantage. After the results today, I don't think UWW jumps into the ranking as C-M should stay ahead of them after their respectable showing against St. John's.  Thus Wheaton would still be the only team with a RRO win.

And not that it matters, but I think very few team would want to face Wheaton in the first round.

Yes, UWL is a possibility for that last spot also. In the end though, UWL won't have a RRO like Wheaton does. Plus, there's a common opponent, Carroll. UWL beat Carroll 41-6, Wheaton beat them 71-0...  not that I really think there's a takeaway from "who beat Carroll more convincingly", it's just a little, little piece of the puzzle per se.

I know I will have people come and say conference standings don't matter, but I still think that a 8-2 3rd place WIAC team going in ahead of a 7-3 2nd place team just looks weird. Not saying it can't happen, the optics of it are just... just odd.

And it's very likely UWW slides into the #10 slot in the West. For some ridiculous reason, 8-1 Lake Forest was rewarded the #9 spot in the latest rankings. They lost. UWW is the most likely replacement IMO.

If UWW does move into that #10 spot, I think this would secure IWU as the 1st pool C selected as they'll have a 2-1 RRO... the only pool C candidate with 2 RRO wins (I think).

[matblake]

Huge shout-out to 2 of the All-Time Wheaton & CCIW greats: RB #23 Sola Olateju and the man he surpassed on the Wheaton career rushing list, RB #38 Pedro Arruza.

From the recap on Wheaton's site:

"Sola Olateju ran for a career-high 273 yards today, with four touchdowns. The Thunder running back now has 3,194 career rushing yards to break Pedro Arruza's (1992-95) long-standing school record of 3,179 career rushing yards. Olateju and Arruza are the only running backs in Wheaton history to surpass the 3,000-yard milestone in a career."

I'd be very curious to see the YACs for both of these studs throughout their careers. Sola may be the only RB that comes close to (and possibly surpasses) Pedro in broken tackles over their careers.

Can't say enough about Sola. Talk about a young man that just got better and better each year. The first time I noticed Sola's greatness (probably later than most did) was in the 2nd round playoff game in 2015 against one of the storied d3 programs, UWW. His explosiveness, strength, speed, and athleticism stood out big time that game... against a top notch Warhawk defense.

What a phenomenal career! Hopefully, it's not over just yet...

Pedro Arruza was key in finally getting over the hurdle of Augustana. For some newcomers,it might be hard to comprehend just what an enormous mountain that was to climb. From 1981 to 1994 Augustana finished atop the CCIW 12 times and 2nd twice, including 5 Stagg bowl appearances resulting in 4 National Championships. Pedro was on my floor my freshman and sophomore years and was a great guy.  Built like a fireplug he did not shy from contact, but was deceptively fast.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Huge shout-out to 2 of the All-Time Wheaton & CCIW greats: RB #23 Sola Olateju and the man he surpassed on the Wheaton career rushing list, RB #38 Pedro Arruza.

From the recap on Wheaton's site:

"Sola Olateju ran for a career-high 273 yards today, with four touchdowns. The Thunder running back now has 3,194 career rushing yards to break Pedro Arruza's (1992-95) long-standing school record of 3,179 career rushing yards. Olateju and Arruza are the only running backs in Wheaton history to surpass the 3,000-yard milestone in a career."

I'd be very curious to see the YACs for both of these studs throughout their careers. Sola may be the only RB that comes close to (and possibly surpasses) Pedro in broken tackles over their careers.

Can't say enough about Sola. Talk about a young man that just got better and better each year. The first time I noticed Sola's greatness (probably later than most did) was in the 2nd round playoff game in 2015 against one of the storied d3 programs, UWW. His explosiveness, strength, speed, and athleticism stood out big time that game... against a top notch Warhawk defense.

What a phenomenal career! Hopefully, it's not over just yet...

Pedro Arruza was key in finally getting over the hurdle of Augustana. For some newcomers,it might be hard to comprehend just what an enormous mountain that was to climb. From 1981 to 1994 Augustana finished atop the CCIW 12 times and 2nd twice, including 5 Stagg bowl appearances resulting in 4 National Championships. Pedro was on my floor my freshman and sophomore years and was a great guy.  Built like a fireplug he did not shy from contact, but was deceptively fast.

Yeah, the run of Augie seems stone age days now, but they are STILL the only team to win FOUR straight Stagg Bowls.  Yet, this season, they are Carroll's ONLY win.  Even Mount Union will (presumably!) someday fall, though I'm not sure I will live to see that day.

[Titan Q]

Seems like the consensus is that Wheaton gets to the table (and pretty early - IWU is probably Pool C #1 or #2) - and then is in discussion for spot #5 with this group:

(N) Wheaton - 8-2, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.507 SOS
(S) Centre -  9-1, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.480
(E) Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
(W) UW-La Crosse - 8-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, 0.550

Most think Frostburg St is the pick.  Wheaton just needs the committee to lean on that NCC win as a separator.

If Wheaton is left out, it probably comes down to that CWRU finish.  Seems to me that Wheaton is either Pool C #5 or #6 (with 5 available).  If Carnegie Mellon just successfully takes a knee and runs out the clock, Wheaton is #4 or #5.

[USee]

Congratulations to IWU and NCC for their CCIW Titles.  IWU in particular made an improbably run and really surprised me this year. Credit to Norm Eash for one of his better coaching jobs.  He brought in a great D Coordinator in Jeff McDonald who would be my vote for assistant of the year if we had the award ( we should) and he replaced some great players to actually bring his team to a higher level of play.  IWU dominated the line of scrimmage especially on defense and that's how you win.  They are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. 

The Cardinals won this year because Broc Rutter is one of the top 2 or 3 QBs in the country, Jeff Thorne did a great job re vamping his receiving core with good young players and their OLine led by freshman Sharmore Clarke and a veteran group figured out how to run the ball again, to the benefit of Austin Bruenig. That and a top 20 defense spells a potential deep playoff run for NCC.