FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[tf37]

I'm interested to hear opinion on the 35/65 run to pass ratio. Has that worked for NCC in the past?

emma, thanks for checking in from WIAC land. To answer your question... I really have no idea. My recommendation is coming from an opponent's point-of-view that much prefers to beat NCC, rather than lose to NCC. And as such, any time Rutter is handing off the ball, even if it is to a talented back like Breunig or Muoghalu, I feel like my team has a better chance to win rather than lose (for the most part).

Can it work Saturday?

Sure can. I don't see why not. There aren't many, if any, QBs in d3 I'd take over Rutter. Spread the field, open up the defense. Pass the ball to set up the run game, not the other way around.

thunderdog,

I respectfully disagree with your NCC offensive suggestion, unless of course you are coming at it from a Wheaton point of view and are trying to help your rival...

NCC is at its best when they have balance and if they go into the game trying for a 35/65 mix, the score will be like the second half of the Bell game.  They need to keep it out of UWO hands as much as possible.  That means long sustained drives, which works best with their normal 50/50 mix.  Just like with SJU, a low scoring game is to their advantage.

[Marmac]

North Central's football team has had a lead in 57 consecutive games. They're always well prepared for games, and I won't be surprised if they start strong against UWO. But to win the game they'll need to finish strong. That's something with which they've struggled in recent years.

Yep. In the last 10 years, from 2008 thru today, the Cardinals have struggled to a record of 99-17.
A struggle many teams would have enjoyed having over that same time period.

Overall, NCC has been excellent the past decade-plus. I think they're one of only 5 schools to win 7 or more games each of the past 15 seasons.

But against good teams in recent years, they have tended to start strong and then struggle to hang on.

2017: Led Robert Morris by 23; won by 2. Led Wheaton by 13; lost by 22.
2016: Led Wheaton by 7; lost by 17.
2015: Led UW-Platteville by 21; lost by 7. Led Wesley by 21; lost by 1.
2014: Led UW-Stevens Point by 8; lost by 7.

Going back a bit further -- to the 2011 playoffs -- they led Wabash by 21 at the start of the fourth quarter but lost by 1.

The NCC coaches do a great job of prepping their players for games. However, against physical teams with good offenses and defenses -- like Wheaton and the WIAC schools -- NCC players seem to get worn down and at times flustered as the game progresses.

All of this said, I hope they play a strong second half and beat UWO on Saturday.

[thunderdog]

thunderdog,

I respectfully disagree with your NCC offensive suggestion, unless of course you are coming at it from a Wheaton point of view and are trying to help your rival...

NCC is at its best when they have balance and if they go into the game trying for a 35/65 mix, the score will be like the second half of the Bell game.  They need to keep it out of UWO hands as much as possible. That means long sustained drives, which works best with their normal 50/50 mix.  Just like with SJU, a low scoring game is to their advantage.

tf37,

Fair enough. Anytime you're playing an explosive offense, the answer is often... ground-and-pound, control the clock, keep their offense off the field... which in theory sounds great. I'm just not sure how realistic it is vs a stout UWO defense

Now, maybe I'm giving too much credit to UWO's defense. After all, they did graduate 10 starters from 2016's runner-up finish. Despite that, the general consensus is that they're still pretty good 

Also keep in mind week 1 of playoff action. NCC had a tough, hard-hitting, grind-it-out 17-7 win over 6th ranked SJU. On the other hand, UWO has a 63-0 sleeper against an overmatched and unranked Lakeland squad. Who's fresher? Who's less dinged up?

UWO averages 42 pts per game, with their lowest total of 23 coming in the season opener on the road vs John Carroll. I think it's crazy to expect the same low-scoring, field position type of ballgame that NCC had against SJU. UWO will get their points. I think if NCC can "hold" them to 24-28, they have a shot... IF... they embrace more of a 40/60 - 35/65 run:pass ratio.

Looking forward to what should be an entertaining game. Good luck CCIW! (I wouldn't be able to live with myself if I actually said "Good luck NCC" so I won't)

[USee]

In analyzing the UWO v NCC game a few observations:

UWO doesn't have many statistical categories where they rank nationally in the top 10 but here they are:

Team Pass Effeciency- 3rd
Turnover margin- 6th
Turnovers lost- 5th
had intercepted- 7th

But if you look at the categories they are top 25 the list expands to:

3rd down conversions- 21st
4th down conversions- 15th
4th down defense- 21st
Total Offense-18th
Completion percentage- 11th
Rushing Offense-20th
Interceptions- 12th
Red Zone Offense- 18th
Red Zone Defense- 18th
Scoring Offense- 11th
Passing Efficiency defense-13th

For North Central they are top 10:

Red Zone offense-5th
Red Zone Defense-9th
Rush Defense-9th
Sacks-4th

Expanding to Top 25 Categories:

First Downs-15th
Scoring-24th
Tackles For Loss-16th

North Central Head Coach Jeff Thorne said this week on "The Red Zone" he thought the 2nd half of the Wheaton game was important to NCC as it forced them to make some changes on defense. In particular they had 3 different starting DB's vs St Johns than played against Wheaton. One of those changes was moving #5 Tyler Oakley from Nickel back to Corner. Since that move some of the results have been:

Defensive Scoring before Wh: 21.6 pts per game
Defensive Scoring after Wh: 11.4 ppg

Sacks before Wh (6 games): 19
Sacks since Wh (5 games): 27

Scoring average before Wh (6 games): 34.3
Scoring average since Wh (5 games): 44.6

In particular Coach Thorne thought the changes at DB has allowed Defensive Coordinator Mike Murray the ability to use his LB's to put pressure on the QB (17.5 of NCC's 46 sacks are from the LB/DB position).

UWO passes the ball 35% of the time and runs it 65%. When they throw it they are #3 in the country in efficiency. When they run it, they average 243 yds a game. They have rushed for close to 200 yds or more in 10 of their 11 games.

NCC passes the ball 40% and runs it 60%. They have won games by controlling the LOS on both sides. They lost to Wheaton because the Thunder dominated at the LOS. That's NCC's game plan. Their OLine is as good as they have ever had in my opinion. Very physical in the run game and excellent at blocking up to the 2nd level. Wheaton had a DL that could beat single blocking  and that disrupted NCC's running attack and put pressure (without blitzinig) on Rutter

[USee]

Winning in the playoffs is about taking away the other teams strength. For North Central to win they need to do the following:

On defense they have to control the LOS and play assignment football. UWO does some things that are very different than anything NCC will have seen. NCC has made a season of penetrating the LOS, disrupting the run game (#9 rush defense) and sacking the QB (#4 in sacks). If UWO can run the ball effectively (they have against everybody) and protect Kaspar, they will score a lot of points against a very stingy defense. If NCC gets tackles for loss and sacks, UWO is in trouble.

On Offense the Cardinals base everything upon a power running game behind their OL, led by the left side of Fehrle, Clarke, and Licar. Those 3 are excellent run blockers. When they run right, LG Clarke is often pulling and leading the attack. They will run the ball 40+ times tomorrow. I am guessing Bruenig will not play based on Thorne's comments on the TV show. The Cardinals will need to control the clock and keep UWO off the field. In their closest game, UWO vs UWRF, River falls ran 22 more plays than UWO.  Beyond that Rutter gets the ball out and is extremely accurate. Blitzing him is usually a bad strategy. Rushing 4 and line games in his face are an effective strategy as he is not a runner and likes to step up in the pocket. The Cardinals will have to be successful running the ball and give Rutter time to throw.

UWO runs the ball 65% of the time and with physically crushing effectiveness. When that's working, the passes are deadly as Kaspar is #3 in the country in pass efficiency.

On defense UWO has given up over 100 yds rushing in 6 of 11 games and 185 to UWW and 147 to UWRF. I think the NCC offense will score some points. The key is turnovers. The Cardinals have to hold on to the ball. UWO is #5 in the country in giveaways (only 10 on the year and only 2 since Hecker returned). If the Cardinals give it away, in what could be a tight games, its a huge advantage to UWO.

Like last week I believe a high scoring game favors UWO and a low scoring game favors NCC. UWO's offense is much more scary than their defense (which is plenty good) and NCC has to limit the UWO offense to win. If they can hold the Titans to less than 21 points, I think the Cardinals have a great chance to win.

30+ points and I think UWO pulls away.

[New Tradition]

Holy missed tackles, Batman!  They'd better figure this out!

[USee]

Complete mismatch in the first half.  UWO offense has yet to be challenged and NCC offense will be pretty one dimensional now.  UWO is much better than 

UWO 35
NCC. 7

[New Tradition]

25 is so impressive!

[kiko]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

[Kovo]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

Defense wins Championships and the Card's defense was not up to the task.  Three times this year we gave up 30+ points.  In both of our losses we gave up 42 points. 

Still another CCIW Championship, and 10 win season.  It is hard to complain.  Lots of players return for 2018, along with guys from a JV team that went 7-0.  I suspect we will contend for another title next year.

[robertgoulet]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

While I agree that NCC (and the CCIW as a whole) aren't currently in that top tier, it was only a few seasons ago that NCC went toe-to-toe with Mt Union in Alliance. Saying that the chasm is "still" there seems to wash over the recent seasons where the "chasm" was inches.

NCC is definitely not on that level at the moment, but they have the offensive pieces returning next year to make that jump back to the elite IF the defense can find itself.

Same can be said for Wheaton.

[kiko]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

While I agree that NCC (and the CCIW as a whole) aren't currently in that top tier, it was only a few seasons ago that NCC went toe-to-toe with Mt Union in Alliance. Saying that the chasm is "still" there seems to wash over the recent seasons where the "chasm" was inches.

NCC is definitely not on that level at the moment, but they have the offensive pieces returning next year to make that jump back to the elite IF the defense can find itself.

Same can be said for Wheaton.

I'm coming at this as someone who badly wants the Cardinals to close that gap versus the elite D3 programs, but I going to stick with "still there".

You are pointing to a season (singular), and not seasons.  It was arguably North Central's best team in the Thorne era, and a vulnerable/weak team by Mount standards.  Which is to say weak for them, but still miles better than 99% of the rest of Division III.  The MUU faithful were a bit apprehensive about the program maybe starting to slip a bit that year as they struggled against Wesley and North Central, and were absolutely hammered by UWW in Salem.  Said differently, IMO that year there was some minor regression on their part, while we concurrently raised our level temporarily to a high water mark. 

Mount has since seemed to return to their normal baseline, and North Central hasn't really come close to beating a team like Mount/UWW/MHB since (or has lost to someone a tier below that before even getting the opportunity to play a purple...)  If North Central had maintained that level beyond that season, I'd feel differently, but the Cards subsequently missed the playoffs in 2014 and 2015.

You'll also recall that the semi versus Mount was played in a blizzard, and was decided basically by who could convert PATs and who could not.  When that game ended, I said "I have no idea whether the best team won or lost this game, and I have no idea how we really stack up against Mount, because the game conditions took both teams far away from their typical strategies and tactics."  I don't mean to take anything away from either program with this: MUU won in conditions that were the same for both teams, so they get bragging rights, and North Central gave them everything they could handle.  But I don't think that game told me anything definitive about our long-term progress versus the D3 royalty.

And, to be clear, I am absolutely including Wheaton in "the CCIW's best"...

[robertgoulet]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

While I agree that NCC (and the CCIW as a whole) aren't currently in that top tier, it was only a few seasons ago that NCC went toe-to-toe with Mt Union in Alliance. Saying that the chasm is "still" there seems to wash over the recent seasons where the "chasm" was inches.

NCC is definitely not on that level at the moment, but they have the offensive pieces returning next year to make that jump back to the elite IF the defense can find itself.

Same can be said for Wheaton.

I'm coming at this as someone who badly wants the Cardinals to close that gap versus the elite D3 programs, but I going to stick with "still there".

You are pointing to a season (singular), and not seasons.  It was arguably North Central's best team in the Thorne era, and a vulnerable/weak team by Mount standards.  Which is to say weak for them, but still miles better than 99% of the rest of Division III.  The MUU faithful were a bit apprehensive about the program maybe starting to slip a bit that year as they struggled against Wesley and North Central, and were absolutely hammered by UWW in Salem.  Said differently, IMO that year there was some minor regression on their part, while we concurrently raised our level temporarily to a high water mark. 

Mount has since seemed to return to their normal baseline, and North Central hasn't really come close to beating a team like Mount/UWW/MHB since (or has lost to someone a tier below that before even getting the opportunity to play a purple...)  If North Central had maintained that level beyond that season, I'd feel differently, but the Cards subsequently missed the playoffs in 2014 and 2015.

You'll also recall that the semi versus Mount was played in a blizzard, and was decided basically by who could convert PATs and who could not.  When that game ended, I said "I have no idea whether the best team won or lost this game, and I have no idea how we really stack up against Mount, because the game conditions took both teams far away from their typical strategies and tactics."  I don't mean to take anything away from either program with this: MUU won in conditions that were the same for both teams, so they get bragging rights, and North Central gave them everything they could handle.  But I don't think that game told me anything definitive about our long-term progress versus the D3 royalty.

And, to be clear, I am absolutely including Wheaton in "the CCIW's best"...

I think it can be argued that Wheaton and NCC have been within shouting distance of the top tier relatively recently. I also think it proves that getting there and staying there are 2 completely different animals.

[Kovo]

From my POV, what we saw today is the difference between a very good Division III team and a great Division III team.  The Cardinals had an excellent season, but the chasm between the CCIW's best and the nation's best is still measured in acres and not in feet and inches.

Oshkosh showed today why they are among the elite teams in the country and I am interested to see how they stack up against the MUUs and Mary Hardin-Baylors of the world.

While I agree that NCC (and the CCIW as a whole) aren't currently in that top tier, it was only a few seasons ago that NCC went toe-to-toe with Mt Union in Alliance. Saying that the chasm is "still" there seems to wash over the recent seasons where the "chasm" was inches.

NCC is definitely not on that level at the moment, but they have the offensive pieces returning next year to make that jump back to the elite IF the defense can find itself.

Same can be said for Wheaton.

I'm coming at this as someone who badly wants the Cardinals to close that gap versus the elite D3 programs, but I going to stick with "still there".

You are pointing to a season (singular), and not seasons.  It was arguably North Central's best team in the Thorne era, and a vulnerable/weak team by Mount standards.  Which is to say weak for them, but still miles better than 99% of the rest of Division III.  The MUU faithful were a bit apprehensive about the program maybe starting to slip a bit that year as they struggled against Wesley and North Central, and were absolutely hammered by UWW in Salem.  Said differently, IMO that year there was some minor regression on their part, while we concurrently raised our level temporarily to a high water mark. 

Mount has since seemed to return to their normal baseline, and North Central hasn't really come close to beating a team like Mount/UWW/MHB since (or has lost to someone a tier below that before even getting the opportunity to play a purple...)  If North Central had maintained that level beyond that season, I'd feel differently, but the Cards subsequently missed the playoffs in 2014 and 2015.

You'll also recall that the semi versus Mount was played in a blizzard, and was decided basically by who could convert PATs and who could not.  When that game ended, I said "I have no idea whether the best team won or lost this game, and I have no idea how we really stack up against Mount, because the game conditions took both teams far away from their typical strategies and tactics."  I don't mean to take anything away from either program with this: MUU won in conditions that were the same for both teams, so they get bragging rights, and North Central gave them everything they could handle.  But I don't think that game told me anything definitive about our long-term progress versus the D3 royalty.

And, to be clear, I am absolutely including Wheaton in "the CCIW's best"...

I think it can be argued that Wheaton and NCC have been within shouting distance of the top tier relatively recently. I also think it proves that getting there and staying there are 2 completely different animals.

Some of us are happy that we are winning and competing for CCIW Championships.  I have no idea how Mount Union has sustained their success over the years but I suspect that it is more than being able to teach blocking and tackling better than anyone else in D3 can teach it.  As far as the WIAC schools (UWW and now Oshkosh)----let's be realistic, they have 10-15K in students depending on the institution, and charge less than 8k in tuition.  I have a news flash, it will be difficult to compete with them on a year in year out basis.

With that said, NCC's sustained success over the past 15 years was unthinkable last century and should be celebrated.  Maybe we will win it all someday--and maybe not----does it matter?

[Mr. Ypsi]

All Region teams announced today (see front page of d3football.com).  Congratulations to the numerous CCIW players honored, and a special shout-out to IWU's Jordan Hassan, the North Region Defensive Player of the Year!