FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mugsy]

Good thing you married a smart North Park alumna to help make up for all of those football-induced mental gaps, Mugsy.

(Of course, your Wheaton teammates probably think that you married a North Parker as a result of getting your bell rung once too often.)

No doubt on all accounts.

[lmitzel]

It will be interesting to see the level of participation in a decade.

Some people dismiss the situation, because football continues to be so overwhelmingly popular and so much a part of American culture. But this sport is in grave danger of dying a long, slow death. Anybody who denies that has his head in the sand.

I know I'm a couple days late to the conversation, but it's an interesting discussion to have. I didn't play football aside from touch with neighborhood friends. I remember getting a call before I started high school from the football coach wanting me to come try out. My mom was hovering at the time, I said I'd think about it, told my mom about the call, and her reaction was something to the effect of, "Yeah, you're not playing football." I think the fact that I weighed maybe 150 pounds soaking wet at the time played something of a role. Looking back, had I played I probably would have been one of those third string tight end type players who would have only come in in the red zone, sent to the back and have it tossed up to me. I'd have played a role in the state's all time touchdown passing leader's career, but I probably would have broken about 50 bones and gotten one or both knees shredded in the process.

But the youth football question is one that I may have to weigh. I have a 16 month old, and I don't know that I want him playing football just because of all the things that are out now about CTE. If it's something he's interested in down the line it's a conversation my wife and I will have to have when the time comes. But I think I'd rather have him play basketball, though that may have more to do with the fact that kid will probably outgrow me by freshman year of high school and I want to spend four years in the mid to late 2030's ending North Central's starting lineup with "FROOOOM NAPERVILLE..." 

[USee]

Just about finished with my 2018 write ups for each team. As a preview here are some preliminary thoughts (teams listed in tiers and in alphabetical order):

Overall the league will be as competitive as it has been in a number of years. The gaps between tiers are smaller than we have seen in more than a decade and the overall talent in the league continues to grow from what I can see.

North Central and Wheaton are still the top two (stay tuned for which order!)

The next group are almost interchangeable and the gap between these three and the top two is much smaller than it has been: Carthage, IWU, Millikin. These are all potential top 25 teams and all of them are capable of wins against the big 2 this year.

The bottom half is also tiered:

Elmhurst, North Park and Wash U, are the next group and WashU is probably the most likely to move up in tier

Augie and Carroll are going to struggle again this year in my estimation, though both have some talent coming back and are capable of surprising some of the teams above them.

I think the top two are going to be top 15 teams this year but probably not top 5 unless they both stay healthy and have some younger talent develop early.

I should have my predictions and some write ups out this week.

[USee]

My analysis for each team included, among other things, looking at how many starters are back on both sides of the ball, how many of the 2-deep are back, how many all conference players return, where was each team ranked in total O/D, scoring O/D, passing O/D, rushing O/D and turnover margin and if the returning players will improve/decrease those rankings, % of offensive and defensive production returning, coaching changes and schedule vs the projected top half of the conference.

There is some inefficiency as not all the teams have posted their 2018 rosters and therefore there may be players returning (5th yr seniors) or not returning that I am not aware of. Also, some teams had players start 2 games vs others who started most of the year and I factored those players impact in as well. Where I didn't know, or couldn't find data, I made some assumptions for the purpose of this analysis.

Here are my projected conference finish and overall records:

1. Wheaton 9-1
2. North Central 8-2
3. IWU 8-2
4. Carthage 7-3
5. Millikin 6-4
6. WashU 4-6
7. NPU 4-6
8. Elmhurst 3-7
9. Augie 3-7
10. Carroll 2-8

[USee]

Wheaton:

Returning Starters: 12
7 offense (4/5 OL, QB, 2WR;  14/22; 7/10 OL, 3/6 WR, 2 QB, 2 TE, 2RB)
6 Defense( lose 2 DE, 1 LB, 2 DB-s,c 14/22 4/8 DL, 4/6 LB, 6/8 DB)

Key Losses: Chase Greenlee and Austin Hoover DE's, Marcus Smith DB, Noah Spielman DT, Luke Sahly LB, Chase White and Trey Hanley, WR, Zach Lundquist TE, Sola Olateju RB
Key returnees:Curtis McWilliams QB, TJ Williams RB, Stone Watson RB, 4 of 5 OL incl Andrew Jones, Philip Nichols WR, Tai'Shawn Gibbs, U of Louisville, Will Smith, RB Baker univ. Spencer Peterson, Adam Terrini WR, Eric Stevenson LB, Dallas McRae DT, Patrick Oconnell DE, Corey Kennedy, Tyler Sigler and Kyle Fox DB's

Schedule: V Monmouth 9/1, @IWU 9/15, v Mill 9/22, @ NCC 9/29 (first 4 weeks), @Carthage 11/3

Wheaton has an interesting team this season. They return just 12 starters from last years team but bring back a lot of talent. On offense they lose Zach Lindquist, 2 WR and Sola Olateju. But stepping into that opportunity are 2 TE's that could have started for most CCIW teams, Tyler Pace and Luke VanDyke. At WR speedster Adam Terrini returns after hurting his knee in week 3 last year combined with transfer Tai'Shawn Gibbs from University of Louisville and 1st team CCIW Philip Nichols gives the Thunder speed they have rarely had for 5th year senior QB Curtis McWilliams. At running back the Thunder lose all time leading rusher Sola Olateju yet will probably have the most talented backfield in the conference with the return of Stone Watson, sophomore TJ Williams and Baker University transfer Will Smith. 4 out of 5 Offensive linemen return and 7 of their top 10. AA candidate Andrew Jones (6-5, 305) leads the group. The Thunder have speed, experience and a deep OL that will add to their #1 offense from last year and should make them very difficult to defend.

On defense the Thunder have DPOY candidate Eric Stevenson at MLB and he will be joined by a pair of new starters likely Jacob Killeen and Daniel Herber. In the secondary the Thunder get NFL prospect Tyler Sigler back after a knee injury derailed his 2017 season. Kyle Fox will go back to his spot at safety and Corey Kennedy will take the other safety spot after player OLB last year. On the defensive line All Conference DL Patrick O'Connell (24 T 5 sacks) will likely move out to his natural spot at DE and Jack Bates (21 T and 3 Sacks) will step up full time at the other DE. Dallas McRae will man the interior along with Dmarte Arifiles. The Thunder will be thin along the DL and in the secondary so health is their primary weakness on last years #1 ranked defense (#1 Total D, #2 scoring D).

The schedule is unkind to the Thunder as they play all of their toughest games on the road and early except for their opener on 9/1 vs Monmouth. Week 2 @IWU, week 3 vs. Millikin and week 4 @North Central and by the end of September we will know exactly how good the Thunder are this year. Only the 11/3 game @Carthage will provide suspense at the back end of the schedule.
With a thin depth chart and a front loaded schedule, if they stay healthy early the Thunder will be very dangerous this year.

My prediction: 9-1

[USee]

North Central:

Returning starters: 13

Defense: 6, (1/4 DL, 1/3 LB, 4/4 db. 11 of top 22; 3/8 DL, 4/6 LB, 4/8 DB)
Offense: 7, (2/5 OL, 3/3 WR, TE, QB. 14 of top 22; 5/10 OL, 4/6 WR, 2/2 QB 2/2 TE, 1 RB

Key Losses: Austin Bruenig, Joe Fehrle, Alec Licar, Tyler Oakley, Tommy Sora, Justin Stuursma, Billy Douds. Matt Taylor and Tyrone Suggs not on roster.
Key returnees: AA Candidate Broc Rutter, QB; AA candidate Andrew Kamienski WR, Mike Sfikas WR, Josh Leonhard DE, Derrek Warkenthein LB, Pat Cravens DB.

Schedule vs. top 4: vs Wheaton 9/29, @Carthage 10/20, @IWU 11/3, vs Millikin 11/10


North Central may well be the favorite in the CCIW when the coaches vote and they have already appeared as the D3.Com favorite to be the Champion this year and with good reason. 15 returning starters headlined by 3 year starter Broc Rutter at QB. Rutter struggled last year (relatively speaking-Only 21 TD's w 8 Int's and 62.7% vs his frosh year with 38 Td's 5 int's and 65.5% completion) as he broke in new WR's last year. All those guys are back and Andrew Kamienski will be one of the best receivers in the country after a year under his belt. In addition, they have a transfer WR, Cam Moore, who is a burner with experience. I expect Rutter to be closer to his 2016 than 2017 numbers, which will be scary for opponents considering they averaged 42 pts a game in conference last year. The struggle on offense will be up front and at RB. With All Conference players Sharmore Clarke and only 1 other starter on the  OL  back the Cardinals have questions. At RB it's not at all clear who will emerge alongside Dominick Muaghalu at RB. Could well be All conference punter Zane Lodico but depth is a problem.
Defensively the question marks are much more pronounced. Cravens, Leonhard and Warkenthien are stalwarts but after that they return 3 other starters who started because of injuries last year. On the DL the Cardinals have just 2 of their top 8 back and only Leonhard as a starter. Matt Taylor and Tyrone Suggs were supposed to return but are not listed on the 2018 roster. With just 2 starters back from their front 7 and a new Defensive Coordinator, former Cardinal standout DB Shane Dierking, Defense will be a concern early for NCC especially since Wheaton comes to town in September (the 29th) this year. Games  @Carthage (10/20) and @IWU (11/3) will be a challenge and a lot could be riding on the season ending contest in Naperville vs Millikin.
If the Cardinals have more depth up front on both sides than their depth chart suggests, they have the skill players to make a deep run this year. From my seat their experience and depth in the trenches is their Achilles heel.

My prediction: 8-2

[AndOne]

Wheaton:

Returning Starters: 12
7 offense (4/5 OL, QB, 2WR;  14/22; 7/10 OL, 3/6 WR, 2 QB, 2 TE, 2RB)
6 Defense( lose 2 DE, 1 LB, 2 DB-s,c 14/22 4/8 DL, 4/6 LB, 6/8 DB)

Key returnees:
Curtis McWilliams QB, TJ Williams RB, Stone Watson RB, 4 of 5 OL incl Andrew Jones, Philip Nichols WR, Tai'Shawn Gibbs, U of Louisville, Will Smith, RB Baker univ. Spencer Peterson, Adam Terrini
Def: Eric Stevenson, Dallas McRae, Patrick Oconnell, Corey Kennedy, Tyler Sigler, Kyle Fox

Schedule: V Monmouth 9/1, @IWU 9/15, v Mill 9/22, @ NCC 9/29 (first 4 weeks), @Carthage 11/3

Wheaton has an interesting team this season. They return just 12 starters from last years team but bring back a lot of talent. On offense they lose Zach Lindquist, 2 WR and Sola Olateju. But stepping into that opportunity are 2 TE's that could have started for most CCIW teams, Tyler Pace and Luke VanDyke. At WR speedster Adam Terrini returns after hurting his knee in week 3 last year combined with transfer Tai'Shawn Gibbs from University of Louisville and 1st team CCIW Philip Nichols gives the Thunder speed they have rarely had for 5th year senior QB Curtis McWilliams. At running back the Thunder lose all time leading rusher Sola Olateju yet will probably have the most talented backfield in the conference with the return of Stone Watson, sophomore TJ Williams and Baker University transfer Will Smith. 4 out of 5 Offensive linemen return and 7 of their top 10. AA candidate Andrew Jones (6-5, 305) leads the group. The Thunder have speed, experience and a deep OL that will add to their #1 offense from last year and should make them very difficult to defend.

On defense the Thunder have DPOY candidate Eric Stevenson at MLB and he will be joined by a pair of new starters likely Jacob Killeen and Daniel Herber. In the secondary the Thunder get NFL prospect Tyler Sigler back after a knee injury derailed his 2017 season. Kyle Fox will go back to his spot at safety and Corey Kennedy will take the other safety spot after player OLB last year. On the defensive line All Conference DL Patrick O'Connell (24 T 5 sacks) will likely move out to his natural spot at DE and Jack Bates (21 T and 3 Sacks) will step up full time at the other DE. Dallas McRae will man the interior along with Dmarte Arifiles. The Thunder will be thin along the DL and in the secondary so health is their primary weakness on last years #1 ranked defense (#1 Total D, #2 scoring D).

The schedule is unkind to the Thunder as they play all of their toughest games on the road and early except for their opener on 9/1 vs Monmouth. Week 2 @IWU, week 3 vs. Millikin and week 4 @North Central and by the end of September we will know exactly how good the Thunder are this year. Only the 11/3 game @Carthage will provide suspense at the back end of the schedule.
With a thin depth chart and a front loaded schedule, if they stay healthy early the Thunder will be very dangerous this year.

My prediction: 9-1

Who do you think is going to (b)eat the Wheaties this year? 🤔
I get the sense you expect them to beat the team you picked for 2nd, so why not 10-0? 😎

[USee]

IWU:

Returning starters:12

Offense: 7 (1/4 OL, QB 3 WR RB, TE; 12 of 22; 4/10 OL, 4/6 WR, 2/2 RB,  QB, TE)
Defense: 5 (2/4 DL, 3/4DB, 14 of 22; 6/8 DL, 3/6 LB, 5/8 DB)

Key losses: 4 OL, Hassan/Wilkey/Akin LB's, Jeremy Giderof  DB
Key Returners: Brandon Bauer QB, Jack Healey WR, Morgan Alexander RB, Eric Dubose Chance Hilliard DL, Trevor Staley, Trevor Koepke DB's

Schedule: v UWLAX 9/8, v Wheaton 9/15, v Carthage 10/6, @Millikin 10/27, v NCC 11/3

I am torn with my analysis of IWU. The Titans have 6 All-Conference players returning, all of their skill players on offense and 5 of their 8 from last years two deep in the secondary. They also return 6 of 8 defensive linemen. Jack Healey and Brandon Bauer as dynamic a duo as we have in our league and on defense Eric Dubose and Chance Hilliard are playmaking defensive linemen with AA candidate Trevor Staley and All Conference lock down corner Trevor Koepke. Jake Kapp moves from Safety to LB ala Wilkey last year and If they can find a 2 other LB's from the likes of Dave Lux, Ryan Swift and Andrew Ostrowski, this defense will be close to last years #1 ranked scoring defense.

So what's the problem? They return one of 5 offensive linemen and only 4 of 10 from their two deep. The one area IWU has never been bad is offensive line. Maybe because that's the position Coach Eash teaches but I can't remember a year when IWU has had a bad offensive line. But the numbers there and inexperience worries me. Thus I am torn. They also have to replace 3 awesome linebackers but they had to do that a year ago and how did that work out? In the end, I believe Norm Eash has it going in Bloomington and he keep his string of no slouch lineman intact. There is a slew of offensive playmakers on this Titan team led by no-lack-of-confidence QB, Brandon Bauer. Morgan Alexander, Zach Walsh and Matese Scott will make this offense exciting to watch. 

The schedule is a delight to Titan fans. Every major game on their schedule is at Tucci with the exception of @Millikin, a short drive over to Decatur. I modified my rankings from earlier this week and now have the Titans 3rd for reasons I will get to with my next profile.

My prediction 8-2

[USee]

Wheaton:

Returning Starters: 12
7 offense (4/5 OL, QB, 2WR;  14/22; 7/10 OL, 3/6 WR, 2 QB, 2 TE, 2RB)
6 Defense( lose 2 DE, 1 LB, 2 DB-s,c 14/22 4/8 DL, 4/6 LB, 6/8 DB)

Key returnees:
Curtis McWilliams QB, TJ Williams RB, Stone Watson RB, 4 of 5 OL incl Andrew Jones, Philip Nichols WR, Tai'Shawn Gibbs, U of Louisville, Will Smith, RB Baker univ. Spencer Peterson, Adam Terrini
Def: Eric Stevenson, Dallas McRae, Patrick Oconnell, Corey Kennedy, Tyler Sigler, Kyle Fox

Schedule: V Monmouth 9/1, @IWU 9/15, v Mill 9/22, @ NCC 9/29 (first 4 weeks), @Carthage 11/3

Wheaton has an interesting team this season. They return just 12 starters from last years team but bring back a lot of talent. On offense they lose Zach Lindquist, 2 WR and Sola Olateju. But stepping into that opportunity are 2 TE's that could have started for most CCIW teams, Tyler Pace and Luke VanDyke. At WR speedster Adam Terrini returns after hurting his knee in week 3 last year combined with transfer Tai'Shawn Gibbs from University of Louisville and 1st team CCIW Philip Nichols gives the Thunder speed they have rarely had for 5th year senior QB Curtis McWilliams. At running back the Thunder lose all time leading rusher Sola Olateju yet will probably have the most talented backfield in the conference with the return of Stone Watson, sophomore TJ Williams and Baker University transfer Will Smith. 4 out of 5 Offensive linemen return and 7 of their top 10. AA candidate Andrew Jones (6-5, 305) leads the group. The Thunder have speed, experience and a deep OL that will add to their #1 offense from last year and should make them very difficult to defend.

On defense the Thunder have DPOY candidate Eric Stevenson at MLB and he will be joined by a pair of new starters likely Jacob Killeen and Daniel Herber. In the secondary the Thunder get NFL prospect Tyler Sigler back after a knee injury derailed his 2017 season. Kyle Fox will go back to his spot at safety and Corey Kennedy will take the other safety spot after player OLB last year. On the defensive line All Conference DL Patrick O'Connell (24 T 5 sacks) will likely move out to his natural spot at DE and Jack Bates (21 T and 3 Sacks) will step up full time at the other DE. Dallas McRae will man the interior along with Dmarte Arifiles. The Thunder will be thin along the DL and in the secondary so health is their primary weakness on last years #1 ranked defense (#1 Total D, #2 scoring D).

The schedule is unkind to the Thunder as they play all of their toughest games on the road and early except for their opener on 9/1 vs Monmouth. Week 2 @IWU, week 3 vs. Millikin and week 4 @North Central and by the end of September we will know exactly how good the Thunder are this year. Only the 11/3 game @Carthage will provide suspense at the back end of the schedule.
With a thin depth chart and a front loaded schedule, if they stay healthy early the Thunder will be very dangerous this year.

My prediction: 9-1

Who do you think is going to (b)eat the Wheaties this year? 🤔
I get the sense you expect them to beat the team you picked for 2nd, so why not 10-0? 😎

Wheaton plays 4 of their 5 biggest games on the road. They could easily slip against any of those teams. I just think the top of the league is a shade below the 2 top 10 teams we had last year. Top 15 yes, but with the depth issues and schedules for those two it will be tough. Either of them could also run the table though. I think they are very close. I gave Wheaton the edge because they have more up front on both sides than the Cardinals.

[USee]

Carthage:

Returning starters: 17

Defense: 9 (4 DL, 1 LB, 4 DB; 15 of top 22, 5/8 DL, 3/6 LB, 7/8 DB)
Offense: 8 (2 OL, QB,TE, 3 WR, 2 RB; 12 of 22, 4/10 OL, 2 TE, 2/4 WR, QB, 3/4 RB)

Key losses: James Cobbs WR, Isaiah Trussell OL,  Shawntrel Garner OLB, Nick Ganzke OLB, Pete Laughlin DL, Jacob Kastler OL, Ben Bingham OL, Jamel Davis RB, and Manny Jones WR not on 2018 roster
Key Returnees: Cedrick Fry DL, Connor Calvert DB, Amani Dennis DB, Emmet Trost LB, Sean Wells TE, Kyle Frieberg QB

Schedule: v UWO, @IWU 10/6, v Millikin 10/13, v NCC 10/20, v Wheaton 11/3

I had a write up all set for Carthage that was going to be glowing in terms of their potential and a prediction that had them closer than ever to the top of the league. Then right before I hit "post" I checked their website one more time and their 2018 roster has been posted. I noticed some big names missing that I had expected to return. Still, only one team has 17 returning starters, 2 more than any other CCIW team. The Redmen bring back 8 players on offense and 9 on defense from a 7-3 team that competed with every team on their schedule last year. If you liked Carthage going into last season (I did) it's a no brainer to double down and pick them this year.

On offense they have a running game  a couple of dynamic running backs, well, one dynamic running back. And a QB who threw 14 TDs with just 2 INT's and led all starters in efficiency, a stat that combined with a defense that led the league in takeaway's means they are going to be a handful. New Head Coach, but he was the defensive coordinator last year so both sides of the ball will run the same schemes. Carthage had the #4 ranked offense in the league and the #2 ranked total defense. With the players they have coming back it's hard not to see how they don't improve on last years numbers. Losing Jamel Davis (RB, 6-1, 220 lbs) and two starting offensive linemen will hurt though.

My prediction: 7-3

[iwu70]

USee, thanks for all the write-ups, pre-season assessments.  Very useful, much appreciated.

IWU'70

[NCF]

IWU:

Returning starters:12

Offense: 7 (1/4 OL, QB 3 WR RB, TE; 12 of 22; 4/10 OL, 4/6 WR, 2/2 RB,  QB, TE)
Defense: 5 (2/4 DL, 3/4DB, 14 of 22; 6/8 DL, 3/6 LB, 5/8 DB)

Key losses: 4 OL, Hassan/Wilkey/Akin LB's, Jeremy Giderof  DB
Key Returners: Brandon Bauer QB, Jack Healey WR, Morgan Alexander RB, Eric Dubose Chance Hilliard DL, Travis Staley, Trevor Koepke DB's

Schedule: v UWLAX 9/8, v Wheaton 9/15, v Carthage 10/6, @Millikin 10/27, v NCC 11/3

I am torn with my analysis of IWU. The Titans have 6 All-Conference players returning, all of their skill players on offense and 5 of their 8 from last years two deep in the secondary. They also return 6 of 8 defensive linemen. Jack Healey and Brandon Bauer as dynamic a duo as we have in our league and on defense Eric Dubose and Chance Hilliard are playmaking defensive linemen with AA candidate Trevor Staley and All Conference lock down corner Trevor Koepke. Jake Kapp moves from Safety to LB ala Wilkey last year and If they can find a 2 other LB's from the likes of Brandon Lux, Ryan Swift and Andrew Ostrowski, this defense will be close to last years #1 ranked scoring defense.

So what's the problem? They return one of 5 offensive linemen and only 4 of 10 from their two deep. The one are IWU has never been bad is offensive line. Maybe because that's the position Coach Eash teaches but I can't remember a year when IWU has had a bad offensive line. But the numbers there and inexperience worries me. Thus I am torn. They also have to replace 3 awesome linebackers but they had to do that a year ago and how did that work out? In the end, I believe Norm Eash has it going in Bloomington and he keep his string of no slouch lineman intact. There is a slew of offensive playmakers on this Titan team led by no-lack-of-confidence QB, Brandon Bauer. Morgan Alexander, Zach Walsh and Matese Scott will make this offense exciting to watch. 

The schedule is a delight to Titan fans. Every major game on their schedule is at Tucci with the exception of @Millikin, a short drive over to Decatur. I modified my rankings from earlier this week and now have the Titans 3rd for reasons I will get to with my next profile.

My prediction 8-2

Dave Lux should be a very good linebacker for IWU.

[Pat Coleman]

Folks, just a reminder that Kickoff '18 goes live tomorrow! Register now if you haven't already!
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2018/06/order-kickoff-2018-now

[USee]

I'll have the rest of my write ups out in advance of kick off (which I am excited to read) lest anyone think I cheated!

[CardinalAlum]

I'll have the rest of my write ups out in advance of kick off (which I am excited to read) lest anyone think I cheated!

You mean the rest of your write ups or Kickoff?