FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Millikin:

Returning: 15 starters

Offense: 9 (3/5 OL, 3/3 WR, QB, RB; 16 of top 22, 5/10 OL, 5/6 WR, 2/2 QB, 2/2 RB)
Defense: 6 (3/4 DL, 2/3 LB, 1/4 DB; 15 of top 22, 7/8 DL, 5/6 LB3/8 DB

Key losses: Demetreeus Loper DB, Adonis Washington LB, Daniel Jackson DB, Nick Perry and Eric Ivery OL
Key returnees: Nicco Stepina QB, Jordan Smith and Gerald Perry WR's, Quintax Wright and Gabe Xayathone DE's, Nika Averitte and Matt Brown LB's and Israel Smith DB

Schedule: @ Hope 8/31, @ Wheaton 9/22, @ Carthage 10/13, vs IWU 10/27, @ NCC 11/10

There is a lot to be excited about in Decatur (and some underlying concerns). 100% of their offensive production returns from #1 pass offense, #3 scoring and total offense. All conference performers QB Nicco Steppina (2,785 yds, 29 TDs 9 INT(10 actually!)), WR's Gerald Perry and Jordan Smith. RB Jazontae Howard (6.5 ypr) is an offensive microwave. I think this offense will pick up where they left off last year and will be extremely potent. They need to stay healthy up front as they only have 6 returning linemen on their roster (not including freshmen).

Defensively the Big Blue are in trouble. They got a huge boost when Senior and leading tackler Nika Averitee decided to return for his final year of eligibility. Only 3 of their top 8 DB's return and only one of those was a starter. Experience on the defensive front will be key as they return 7 of their top 8 DL including DE's Quintaz Wright and Gabe Xayathone and 5 of their top 6 LB's. On the back end they will struggle as they only have 5 DB's on their roster (without any freshmen listed). Not good news for #7 ranked defense from last year.

Tough schedule for Millikin as they have 4 of their 5 toughest games on the road. Only the 10/27 night game against rival IWU is at Frank M. Lindsay Field. With depth, defense and scheduling issues:

My Prediction: 6-4

[USee]

WashU:

Returning: 15 starters

Offense: 10 (5 OL, QB, RB, 2 WR, TE; 17 of top 22, 9/10 OL, 3/6 WR, 1/2 TE, 2/2 QB, 2/2 RB)
Defense: 5 (1 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB; 12 of top 22, 3/8 DL, 5/6 LB's, 4/8 DB)

Key Losses: TE, Ramspott, WR, Andrew Ralph, LB, Nick Doctors S, Garris Goe DE, Jared Lake DT, Nick Leduc DT
Key Returners: Clayton Farris, DE, Jake Coon and Jarrod Huther, LB, Jack Mills DB, Johnny Davidson, QB, John Fisher, RB, Jason Singer and Nick Cione WRs, 5 OL

Schedule against top 4: @NCC 9/15, vs Carthage 9/22, vs Wheaton 10/13, vs IWU 10/20,

WashU makes their CCIW debut @NCC on 9/15 and while that may not go so well they likely will do better than Carroll's debut last year. The Bears have 10 Starters on Offense back from a team whose stats would have ranked them as the 4th or 5th best offense in the league last year. QB Johnny Davison returns (195-295 2035 yds 16 TD 13 INT 226 ypg), RB John Fisher (81 rush 386 yds, 4.8 ypc 2 TD 43 ypg: and 3 pretty productive WR's in Jason Singer (32 rec), Nick Cione (28 rec) and Jeff Dedekere (12 rec). All 5 OL who started the finale last year are back and 9 of the top 10.

On defense, the 3 top tacklers are all back from last years defense return but only 5 starters overall. The Bears gave up 28 ppg, and 184 ypg rushing and  211 pass. They had just 8 INT, 3 Fumb,  but 26 sacks. Only 1 DL returns as a starter and just 3 of the top 8. Linebackers Jake Coon and Jarrod Huter led the team in tackles with safety Ben Marcus close behind. In the secondary Jack Mills joins Marcus as the lone starters and only 2 other back ups return.

I have a hard time seeing a Bear's defense that gave up 184 yards a game, returning just 3 defensive lineman from their two deep, stopping many CCIW rushing attacks. That's spells trouble for this Bears team inaugural season in the CCIW.

My prediction: 4-6

[USee]

North Park University:

Returning Starters: 13

Defense: 7 (4/4 DB, 2/3 LB, 1/4 DL; 16/22, 8/8 DB, 4/6 LB, 4/8 DL)
Offense: 6 (3/5 OL, 2/4 WR, QB; 17/22: 8/10 OL, 6/8 WR, 1/2 RB, 2/2 QB)

Key Losses Norm Cupicciotti WR, Denton Delgado WR, Derrick Mosely OG, Quentyn Jackson OG, Chaun Maiava LB, 3/4 DL. Kejahn Joseph DL
Key Returnees: 8/8 DBs Mike Diffecchio, David Simmons DB, QB Frank Mauigoa

@Mill 9/15, v NCC 9/22, v Washu 9/29, @Wheaton 10/6,  V Carthage 10/27, v IWU 11/10

One massive assumption I made and a  huge key to NPU will be the return of Mike DiFecchio at Strong Safety. NPU was the #5 defense in the conference and they return all 8 defensive backs and 4/6 LB's. The loss of Maiava, a 1st team All CCIW LB will be felt but returning only 4 of 8 DL and one starter (Wilson Ray) will be harder to overcome.
On offense the Vikings have 17 of their top 22 coming back. So whil they have just 6 starters returning, there is some depth to fill in the gaps. They will need a playmaker at RB and at least one WR as well as consistent play from QB Frank Mauigoa to improve on their #9 ranked offense from a year ago.

The schedule is a mixed bag for the Vikings versus the top CCIW teams. All that to say I see an improvement this year from Mike Conway's team:

My prediction 4-6

[USee]

Elmhurst:

Returning starters: 15

Offense: 10 (2 WR, TE, 4/5 OL, QB, RB; 18/22: 6 WR, 2 QB 8/10 OL, 1/2 TE)
Defense: 5 (2/3 DL, 1/4 LB, 2/4 DB; 16/22: 5/6 DL, 5/8 LB, 6/8 DB)

Key losses: Tyler Hosman, LB John Rubino DL, Pat Walsh OT, Joe Nixaon LB, Mike Dicken LB
Key returners: Orlando Hernandez, Hasahn Austin WR, Matt Brachman TE, Storm Miller LB

Schedule vs Top 4: @ Carthage 9/29, @IWU 10/13, @NCC 10/27, @Wheaton 11/10

Elmhurst returns 10 starters on offense including their top playmaker, QB Orlando Hernandez. The problem for the Bluejays is their Offense was rated 8th in the league last year and that's because Hernandez did not have great efficiency, completing just 50% of his passes and throwing more interceptions (18) than TD's (13). He also had few playmakers around him. His OL returns largely intact which should give him more time to be patient with the ball and all 6 of this top receivers are back led by Hasahn Austin (36 rec). Ben Halloway should shoulder the RB2 duties (Hernandez is the first option as a runner).

Defensively the Blue Jays bring back 6 of 8 dbs but only 1/4 LB's.  Romain Richards will be counted on to lead the team in sacks again.

Bad schedule with all the top teams on the road for the Blue Jays.

My prediction 3-7

[USee]

Augie:

Returning: 13 starters

Defense: 7 (1/4 DL, 2/3 LB, 4/4 DB; 15 of top 22, 8/8 DB, 5/8 DL)
Offense: 6 (QB, RB, 3/5 OL, 1 WR; 13 of top 22, 3/4 WR, 2/2 QB, 3/2 RB, 6/10 OL)

Key losses: Chris Gort, OL, Travon Aldridge LB, Lukas Stoutenour DT, Grant Burke DE
Key Returnees: Cassin Wolfe, LB, 4/4 DBs including Devin Haxby (60 tackles), Ryan Pitra, RB

Schedule v top 4: vs IWU 9/22, vs NCC 10/6, vs Wheaton 10/20, Vs Carthage 11/10

Augie has an average number of returning players and what looks like an average team. They really need some consistency at QB and some playmakers to emerge on offense. Ryan Pitra will try to be one of those behind an experience OL.

On defense they return their entire defensive backfield as well as all the backups from their two deep. Cassin Wolfe returns at LB and Daniel Tjaden at DE.

Augie had the #6 Offense and #8 defense in the CCIW this year and I don't see many difference makers that will move them much higher in either category. The schedule is favorable as they host all the top teams in Rock Island.

My prediction 3-7

[USee]

Carroll College:

Returning Starters: 16 starters

Offense: 6 (QB, 4/5 OL, TE; 15 of 22: 8/10 OL, 3/6 WR, 2/2 TE, 1 QB, 1 RB)
Defense: 10 (3/4 DL, 3/3 LB, 4/4 DB: 20 of 22, 6/8 DL, 6/6 LB, 8/8 DB)

Key losses: JJ Keels RB, Brandon Ehrke WR, Parker Zitzke WR, Patrick Barrett OT, Ethan Molisee DT
Key Returnees: Colton Bahling QB, Lucas Wood LB Andrew Danculovich LB, Linzy Hudson DB

Schedule vs Top 4: Vs Carthage 9/15, vs IWU 9/29, @NCC 10/13, @Wheaton 10/27

Carroll had an inconspicuous return to the CCIW last year as they were largely overmatched by teams that were just more physical. I don't expect it to get much better for Carroll this year, though they return the second most starters of any team in the league with 16 (10 on offense and 6 on defense)

Lot's of depth and experience should improve their level of play and they host Carthage and IWU while traveling to NCC and Wheaton.

My prediction: 2-8

[matblake]

USee, thanks for your thoughts.  I hope you enjoy putting it together, because it seems like a lot of work.  I will also say that I feel that you are always objective in your reviews.  That is extremely useful at this time of year.

[lmitzel]

Coaches poll is out. North Central is the pick to win, receiving six first place votes and 78 total points. Wheaton is second with 74 points and three first place votes. IWU is third with 63 points and the lone remaining vote.

[USee]

My analysis for each team included, among other things, looking at how many starters are back on both sides of the ball, how many of the 2-deep are back, how many all conference players return, where was each team ranked in total O/D, scoring O/D, passing O/D, rushing O/D and turnover margin and if the returning players will improve/decrease those rankings, % of offensive and defensive production returning, coaching changes and schedule vs the projected top half of the conference.

There is some inefficiency as not all the teams have posted their 2018 rosters and therefore there may be players returning (5th yr seniors) or not returning that I am not aware of. Also, some teams had players start 2 games vs others who started most of the year and I factored those players impact in as well. Where I didn't know, or couldn't find data, I made some assumptions for the purpose of this analysis.

Here are my projected conference finish and overall records:

1. Wheaton 9-1
2. North Central 8-2
3. IWU 8-2
4. Carthage 7-3
5. Millikin 6-4
6. WashU 4-6
7. NPU 4-6
8. Elmhurst 3-7
9. Augie 3-7
10. Carroll 2-8

2018 Preseason Football Coaches' Poll
Rank    Institution    Points (1st Pl. Votes)
1    North Central    78 (6)
2    Wheaton    74 (3)
3    Illinois Wesleyan    63 (1)
4    Carthage    55
5    Millikin    52
6    WashU    41
7    Elmhurst    30
8    Augustana    26
9    North Park    17
10   Carroll    14

Coaches see NCC/Wheaton as pretty similar as well. Overall pretty similar, voting results are similar to the tiers I suggested.

Some interesting data in the Kickoff profiles as well.

[USee]

North Central:

Returning starters: 13

Defense: 6, (1/4 DL, 1/3 LB, 4/4 db. 11 of top 22; 3/8 DL, 4/6 LB, 4/8 DB)
Offense: 7, (2/5 OL, 3/3 WR, TE, QB. 14 of top 22; 5/10 OL, 4/6 WR, 2/2 QB 2/2 TE, 1 RB

Key Losses: Austin Bruenig, Joe Fehrle, Alec Licar, Tyler Oakley, Tommy Sora, Justin Stuursma, Billy Douds. Matt Taylor and Tyrone Suggs not on roster.
Key returnees: AA Candidate Broc Rutter, QB; AA candidate Andrew Kamienski WR, Mike Sfikas WR, Josh Leonhard DE, Derrek Warkenthein LB, Pat Cravens DB.

Schedule vs. top 4: vs Wheaton 9/29, @Carthage 10/20, @IWU 11/3, vs Millikin 11/10


North Central may well be the favorite in the CCIW when the coaches vote and they have already appeared as the D3.Com favorite to be the Champion this year and with good reason. 15 returning starters headlined by 3 year starter Broc Rutter at QB. Rutter struggled last year (relatively speaking-Only 21 TD's w 8 Int's and 62.7% vs his frosh year with 38 Td's 5 int's and 65.5% completion) as he broke in new WR's last year. All those guys are back and Andrew Kamienski will be one of the best receivers in the country after a year under his belt. In addition, they have a transfer WR, Cam Moore, who is a burner with experience. I expect Rutter to be closer to his 2016 than 2017 numbers, which will be scary for opponents considering they averaged 42 pts a game in conference last year. The struggle on offense will be up front and at RB. With All Conference players Sharmore Clarke and only 1 other starter on the  OL  back the Cardinals have questions. At RB it's not at all clear who will emerge alongside Dominick Muaghalu at RB. Could well be All conference punter Zane Lodico but depth is a problem.
Defensively the question marks are much more pronounced. Cravens, Leonhard and Warkenthien are stalwarts but after that they return 3 other starters who started because of injuries last year. On the DL the Cardinals have just 2 of their top 8 back and only Leonhard as a starter. Matt Taylor and Tyrone Suggs were supposed to return but are not listed on the 2018 roster. With just 2 starters back from their front 7 and a new Defensive Coordinator, former Cardinal standout DB Shane Dierking, Defense will be a concern early for NCC especially since Wheaton comes to town in September (the 29th) this year. Games  @Carthage (10/20) and @IWU (11/3) will be a challenge and a lot could be riding on the season ending contest in Naperville vs Millikin.
If the Cardinals have more depth up front on both sides than their depth chart suggests, they have the skill players to make a deep run this year. From my seat their experience and depth in the trenches is their Achilles heel.

My prediction: 8-2

Couple of updates after reading Kickoff. NCC has a transfer QB from Illiniois State, Connor Joyce, and it looks like they want him to play this year. May be a Spencer Peterson type role since Wheaton was pretty effective with that last year against the Cardinals. Also, they have moved some players from Offense to Defense. Brighton Haverland, a TE last year, is going to play DE this year. Jake Beesely will also convert from WR to DB. 

[Gregory Sager]

WashU makes their CCIW debut @NCC on 9/15 and while that may not go so well they likely will do better than Carroll's debut last year.

Carroll had an inconspicuous return to the CCIW last year

Carroll returned to the league two years ago. The Pios were 1-9, 1-7 in 2016 and 1-9, 1-7 last season.

One massive assumption I made and a  huge key to NPU will be the return of Mike DiFecchio at Strong Safety.

Matt DiFecchio, not Mike, and he graduated in May after four years of playing varsity football for the Vikings.

Otherwise, great job as usual with the profiles, USee.

My analysis for each team included, among other things, looking at how many starters are back on both sides of the ball, how many of the 2-deep are back, how many all conference players return, where was each team ranked in total O/D, scoring O/D, passing O/D, rushing O/D and turnover margin and if the returning players will improve/decrease those rankings, % of offensive and defensive production returning, coaching changes and schedule vs the projected top half of the conference.

There is some inefficiency as not all the teams have posted their 2018 rosters and therefore there may be players returning (5th yr seniors) or not returning that I am not aware of. Also, some teams had players start 2 games vs others who started most of the year and I factored those players impact in as well. Where I didn't know, or couldn't find data, I made some assumptions for the purpose of this analysis.

Here are my projected conference finish and overall records:

1. Wheaton 9-1
2. North Central 8-2
3. IWU 8-2
4. Carthage 7-3
5. Millikin 6-4
6. WashU 4-6
7. NPU 4-6
8. Elmhurst 3-7
9. Augie 3-7
10. Carroll 2-8

2018 Preseason Football Coaches' Poll
Rank    Institution    Points (1st Pl. Votes)
1    North Central    78 (6)
2    Wheaton    74 (3)
3    Illinois Wesleyan    63 (1)
4    Carthage    55
5    Millikin    52
6    WashU    41
7    Elmhurst    30
8    Augustana    26
9    North Park    17
10   Carroll    14

Coaches see NCC/Wheaton as pretty similar as well. Overall pretty similar, voting results are similar to the tiers I suggested.

Two spots lower is not what I would call "similar" as far as NPU is concerned. Not that it makes any difference to me, to be honest. While I had thought that there was a chance that the Vikings would be picked ahead of Augie and/or Elmhurst, the only team that I knew for sure that they'd be picked above was Carroll.

[HAMBO]

Great job USee and thank you for all of your research.  You are right about Millikin.  They will have to depend on freshman for depth at both OL and DB which makes them somewhat unpredictable given they have much talent elsewhere.

[USee]

Wheaton pre-season scrimmage @Loras the weekend before the regular season opener vs Monmouth.

[79jaybird]

Great to see football back at Langhorst.  Usee good stuff.  Have to agree it's going to be an uphill battle for Elmhurst to come anywhere close to even 500.  Elmhurst lacked consistency last year and may struggle with that again this year.

Definitely not just a red bird brigade this year.  Looks like 3-4 teams have a good shot at the thrown this year.   

[AndOne]

Great to see football back at Langhorst.  Usee good stuff.  Have to agree it's going to be an uphill battle for Elmhurst to come anywhere close to even 500.  Elmhurst lacked consistency last year and may struggle with that again this year.

Definitely not just a red bird brigade this year.  Looks like 3-4 teams have a good shot at the thrown this year.   

Yep. And the conference champ may even get to sit on the throne.