FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[matblake]

Congrats to Eric Stevenson and Broc Rutter for being named semi-finalists for the Gagliardi Trophy. Both deserving cantidates. https://www.d3football.com/notables/2018/11/gagliardi-semifinalists-announced

[AndOne]

Cardalum, What do you know about the Offensive Line  , I thought you were a kicker or something?

Wow a washdupcard sighting! Like spotting a bald eagle!

"I depart as air, I shake my white locks at the runaway sun,
I effuse my flesh in eddies, and drift it in lacy jags.

I bequeath myself to the dirt to grow from the grass I love,
If you want me again look for me under your boot-soles.

You will hardly know who I am or what I mean,
But I shall be good health to you nevertheless,
And filter and fibre your blood.

Failing to fetch me at first keep encouraged,
Missing me one place search another,
I stop somewhere waiting for you."

"You can shake
And you can dance
But the last drop
Will always end in your pants."

Thou art he
The utter fool
Who sits and reads
Upon the stool

However, knowledge
Cannot remain
Because thou sits
Upon thy brain

* NOT directed at Mr. Goulet or anyone else in particular. 

[matblake]

Happy Thanksgiving all!

[Marmac]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."
• Adam noted that NCC had three "close wins" in CCIW play. His definition of "close" differs from mine.

[Pat Coleman]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."

... even with "could" my point still stands, no?

[USee]

I don't think any of NCC's wins were that close. Neither was their loss.

There are a lot of stats lining up in this game for the Cardinals but, assuming these two teams play well and according to their profile (no turnovers, strong special teams) I think two things really jump out to me as the absolute key:

1. North Central's #6 offense is 1st in the country on 3rd down. Bethel's #7 ranked defense is 9th in 3rd down defense. The Cardinals like long scoring drives where Rutter methodically gets the yards he needs to move the sticks. Bethel's Defense is physical against the run and forces longer yardage 3rd downs, which their secondary excels at stopping. I will be watching the 3rd down success of NCC offense/Bethel D

2. Bethel's formula for winning is pretty simple. They try to dominate the LOS on both sides. On offense they run, run, run (70% of the time) including many called QB runs with an extra blocker. They are 60th in offense but #20 in rushing offense. North Centrals #35 defense is #20 against the run. On defense Bethel stops the run (#5 in the country in run defense). North Central hasn't seen a team as committed to running the ball and as physical as Bethel. Wheaton dominated the LOS and ran for 236 yds and put up a 50 burger.

If Bethel can control the LOS on both sides, they will win. If NCC can control and get some kind of running game production, then Rutter and company will have little problem putting up points. NCC's defense has to defend the extra runnier in Bethel's QB.

I have NCC favored by 5-7pts at home.

[umhb2001]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."
• Adam noted that NCC had three "close wins" in CCIW play. His definition of "close" differs from mine.

We played Wheaton 2 years ago and beat them. Could is always an opportunity, but I just don't see it.

[CardinalAlum]

I don't think any of NCC's wins were that close. Neither was their loss.

There are a lot of stats lining up in this game for the Cardinals but, assuming these two teams play well and according to their profile (no turnovers, strong special teams) I think two things really jump out to me as the absolute key:

1. North Central's #6 offense is 1st in the country on 3rd down. Bethel's #7 ranked defense is 9th in 3rd down defense. The Cardinals like long scoring drives where Rutter methodically gets the yards he needs to move the sticks. Bethel's Defense is physical against the run and forces longer yardage 3rd downs, which their secondary excels at stopping. I will be watching the 3rd down success of NCC offense/Bethel D

2. Bethel's formula for winning is pretty simple. They try to dominate the LOS on both sides. On offense they run, run, run (70% of the time) including many called QB runs with an extra blocker. They are 60th in offense but #20 in rushing offense. North Centrals #35 defense is #20 against the run. On defense Bethel stops the run (#5 in the country in run defense). North Central hasn't seen a team as committed to running the ball and as physical as Bethel. Wheaton dominated the LOS and ran for 236 yds and put up a 50 burger.

If Bethel can control the LOS on both sides, they will win. If NCC can control and get some kind of running game production, then Rutter and company will have little problem putting up points. NCC's defense has to defend the extra runnier in Bethel's QB.

I have NCC favored by 5-7pts at home.

If it's a close game, I do believe NCC has a big advantage in the kicking game as Judka has been one of the top kickers in the country this year.  I don't believe Bethel has that same kind of ability to get points.   Weather should be decent with a chance of light rain and temps in the 40's. 

[Marmac]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."

... even with "could" my point still stands, no?

Yes, your point still stands. I agree with you. It just got me thinking about which team could have made the most noise if they'd been in the field of 32.

[Marmac]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."
• Adam noted that NCC had three "close wins" in CCIW play. His definition of "close" differs from mine.

We played Wheaton 2 years ago and beat them. Could is always an opportunity, but I just don't see it.

The Cru would be a big favorite against Wheaton. That said, according to the Hansen Ratings, Wheaton would have the 4th best odds of any school in the nation of beating UMHB. Do you think St. John's is capable of beating UMHB?

[AndOne]

No. Especially if they would play in Texas.

[AndOne]

I don't think any of NCC's wins were that close. Neither was their loss.

There are a lot of stats lining up in this game for the Cardinals but, assuming these two teams play well and according to their profile (no turnovers, strong special teams) I think two things really jump out to me as the absolute key:

1. North Central's #6 offense is 1st in the country on 3rd down. Bethel's #7 ranked defense is 9th in 3rd down defense. The Cardinals like long scoring drives where Rutter methodically gets the yards he needs to move the sticks. Bethel's Defense is physical against the run and forces longer yardage 3rd downs, which their secondary excels at stopping. I will be watching the 3rd down success of NCC offense/Bethel D

2. Bethel's formula for winning is pretty simple. They try to dominate the LOS on both sides. On offense they run, run, run (70% of the time) including many called QB runs with an extra blocker. They are 60th in offense but #20 in rushing offense. North Centrals #35 defense is #20 against the run. On defense Bethel stops the run (#5 in the country in run defense). North Central hasn't seen a team as committed to running the ball and as physical as Bethel. Wheaton dominated the LOS and ran for 236 yds and put up a 50 burger.

If Bethel can control the LOS on both sides, they will win. If NCC can control and get some kind of running game production, then Rutter and company will have little problem putting up points. NCC's defense has to defend the extra runnier in Bethel's QB.

I have NCC favored by 5-7pts at home.

1. If Bethel stops the run so well, I sense you might see lots of 1st down passes by NCC. Avoid the 2nd and 8 or 9 after which, if 2nd down also isn't very successful BU can send the house on 3rd.

2. With BU so favoring the run, might NCC go from a 4-3 to more of  a 4-4 and/or often stack the box to try to put the brakes on the BU grinding ground game? If BU goes with 2 WRs and a RB as potential receivers, cover them with 3 DBs and add a 4th true LB, or possibly play one of the safeties up more as a LB? Then, in likely passing situations, go back to the traditional defensive alignment.

3. I'm sure NCC would be very happy to accept that 5-7 point win. As CardinalAlum pointed out, the Cards kicker has been money all season long, and if it comes down to a close game it seems the odds of his being the difference could very well be the difference.

Would a 5-7 point NCC win be considered "close?" 
As USee says, Yards are yards.
And, wins are wins. 

[USee]

NCC is 60/40 Run vs Pass. That's not gonna change in this game unless they are really behind. They may pass more on 1st down (I would) early in the game to loosen up the defense.

If I were Shane Dierking, I would definitely play an 8 man front and dare Bethel to beat me throwing the ball. You have to take away the other team's strength if you can.

A 5 point win over Bethel at home in the playoffs would be considered close and would be NCC's first "close" win of the season (as defined by a one score game).

[wally_wabash]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."

... even with "could" my point still stands, no?

Yes, your point still stands. I agree with you. It just got me thinking about which team could have made the most noise if they'd been in the field of 32.

Wheaton Thunder - 2018 What If National Champs! 

The Cru would be a big favorite against Wheaton. That said, according to the Hansen Ratings, Wheaton would have the 4th best odds of any school in the nation of beating UMHB. Do you think St. John's is capable of beating UMHB?

4 weeks ago I probably would have said no, St. John's wouldn't be able to beat UMHB, but now?  Maybe.  The way UMHB totally shuts down their own offense in November and December makes me think St. John's needs like 2 explosive plays to be in and possibly win that game.  And I think the Johnnies have the dudes to do pull that off.  That might be the most intriguing matchup left in this year's tournament. 

[thunderdog]

A couple of comments about today's Around the Nation podcast:

• Pat said that no school left out of the field of 32 could have won the Stagg Bowl. I agree, though I think that Wheaton -- when it's playing well -- could beat any team in the field with the exception of Mount Union. Not "would" but "could."

... even with "could" my point still stands, no?

Considering only 3 schools have won the Stagg since 2005, seems as if the NCAA should just invite 4 teams to the playoffs each year. UMU, UWW, & UMHB all are automatically in... the rest of us 250 d3 schools will duke it out for that final spot. Sounds about right...