FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[wally_wabash]

RE: Wheaton's SOS

In 2019, North Central's non-conference opponent finished 2-8.  Christopher Newport ought to do better than that on average, so North Central caught some bad luck there, but obviously not enough to keep them out. 

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting. 

I'd also note that in 2019 some weird stuff happened that made the Pool C bubble very, very small. 
- Redlands and Chapman both upset NWC teams and created profiles (high SOS + RRO wins) that made the SCIAC a two-bid league.  No bid stealing there- those were earned, but that's also not the norm and that's not repeated this year 
- Central upset Wartburg and stole a bid- Wartburg's SOS was over .550 and they were a lock
- UW-Oshkosh upset UW-Whitewater in the last game of the DIII regular season and stole a bid 

Could weird stuff happen this year?  Definitely.  We also don't quite know how the extra regions are going to influence the selections.  Do two extra choices on the table help or hurt a team that has the kind of profile that Wheaton is probably going to have (SOS just under .500, 0-1 vs RRO)?  We just don't know.  It's going to be fun to really dive in on this over the last few weeks of the season.

[Pat Coleman]

The CCIW runner-up generally speaking should fare well in this alignment for not having to compete with runners-up from the OAC or the WIAC to get to the table for at-large consideration.

[CardinalAlum]

The CCIW runner-up generally speaking should fare well in this alignment for not having to compete with runners-up from the OAC or the WIAC to get to the table for at-large consideration.

Pat reading my mind.  I was going to ask how that different dynamic would play into all of this.  Thank you!

[New Tradition]

RE: Wheaton's SOS

In 2019, North Central's non-conference opponent finished 2-8.  Christopher Newport ought to do better than that on average, so North Central caught some bad luck there, but obviously not enough to keep them out. 

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting. 

I'd also note that in 2019 some weird stuff happened that made the Pool C bubble very, very small. 
- Redlands and Chapman both upset NWC teams and created profiles (high SOS + RRO wins) that made the SCIAC a two-bid league.  No bid stealing there- those were earned, but that's also not the norm and that's not repeated this year 
- Central upset Wartburg and stole a bid- Wartburg's SOS was over .550 and they were a lock
- UW-Oshkosh upset UW-Whitewater in the last game of the DIII regular season and stole a bid 

Could weird stuff happen this year?  Definitely.  We also don't quite know how the extra regions are going to influence the selections.  Do two extra choices on the table help or hurt a team that has the kind of profile that Wheaton is probably going to have (SOS just under .500, 0-1 vs RRO)?  We just don't know.  It's going to be fun to really dive in on this over the last few weeks of the season.

That's a pretty comprehensive breakdown.  Thanks for taking the time to put that together.  Really enjoying all of the feedback and takes from the showdown Saturday night from you scholarly lot as well as Pat and the D3 team.  We certainly have a lot to chew on.    I actually think NCC will cough up it's #1 ranking this week if MHB puts on even a decent show against Hardin-Simmons.  I realize I'm not exactly going out on a limb here given that it's only a 1 point lead and recency bias is a thing, but I also don't see a way for the Cardinals to regain the spot other than emerging victorious at Canton.  As fun (and absolutely the most accurate, I believe) as the D3 poll is, it's a blessing that we have a playoff system to be able to sort this thing out. 

[bleedpurple]

I totally get fans being irked that 2 teams they beat are ranked higher but I am not sure what sense it makes for a coach to voice that to his players. Pretty entertaining clip Pat!

It's funny to me that Coach Thorne is pretending to be offended by their place in the polls. And there was not a team ranked ahead of his team that they beat by 24 points. Two very different teams in a very different year. I look forward to him finding that out.

[Pat Coleman]

I think it's fair game for coaches to use that to motivate their student-athletes.

[WashedUpCard]

I totally get fans being irked that 2 teams they beat are ranked higher but I am not sure what sense it makes for a coach to voice that to his players. Pretty entertaining clip Pat!

It's funny to me that Coach Thorne is pretending to be offended by their place in the polls. And there was not a team ranked ahead of his team that they beat by 24 points. Two very different teams in a very different year. I look forward to him finding that out.

I imagine that would only happen deep in the playoffs - and I'm sure we would all be excited to see how that would play out.  Personally, I'd love to see Wheaton's front 7 against UWW's run game.  That would be one heck of a battle.

[bleedpurple]

I think it's fair game for coaches to use that to motivate their student-athletes.

100%! I'm not implying he did anything wrong.  Every coach has their own motivational style.  I'm sure he has a feel for what will work with his student athletes. But he didn't say it in the privacy of a locker room. So being made public, I think it's also fair game for his comments to be commented on.   

[bleedpurple]

I totally get fans being irked that 2 teams they beat are ranked higher but I am not sure what sense it makes for a coach to voice that to his players. Pretty entertaining clip Pat!

It's funny to me that Coach Thorne is pretending to be offended by their place in the polls. And there was not a team ranked ahead of his team that they beat by 24 points. Two very different teams in a very different year. I look forward to him finding that out.

I imagine that would only happen deep in the playoffs - and I'm sure we would all be excited to see how that would play out.  Personally, I'd love to see Wheaton's front 7 against UWW's run game.  That would be one heck of a battle.

Agreed!  But I'd love for it to not be before the semi's!

[CardinalAlum]

I think it's fair game for coaches to use that to motivate their student-athletes.

100%! I'm not implying he did anything wrong.  Every coach has their own motivational style.  I'm sure he has a feel for what will work with his student athletes. But he didn't say it in the privacy of a locker room. So being made public, I think it's also fair game for his comments to be commented on.   

More than fair game.  I would imagine both Purple powers would love a chance to avenge 2019 games!

[hickory_cornhusker]

RE: Wheaton's SOS

In 2019, North Central's non-conference opponent finished 2-8.  Christopher Newport ought to do better than that on average, so North Central caught some bad luck there, but obviously not enough to keep them out. 

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting. 

I'd also note that in 2019 some weird stuff happened that made the Pool C bubble very, very small. 
- Redlands and Chapman both upset NWC teams and created profiles (high SOS + RRO wins) that made the SCIAC a two-bid league.  No bid stealing there- those were earned, but that's also not the norm and that's not repeated this year 
- Central upset Wartburg and stole a bid- Wartburg's SOS was over .550 and they were a lock
- UW-Oshkosh upset UW-Whitewater in the last game of the DIII regular season and stole a bid 

Could weird stuff happen this year?  Definitely.  We also don't quite know how the extra regions are going to influence the selections.  Do two extra choices on the table help or hurt a team that has the kind of profile that Wheaton is probably going to have (SOS just under .500, 0-1 vs RRO)?  We just don't know.  It's going to be fun to really dive in on this over the last few weeks of the season.

I think a RRO of 0-1 is overly pessimistic. Do we know how many teams are going to be ranked regionally? If it's 8 like I have seen mentioned but I don't think confirmed is 8. With the CCIW, ARC, NACC, MWC as the region, is there any way the CCIW doesn't end up with 3 ranked teams as long as CCIW's 3-10 don't continually beat each other up. Wheaton, North Central, two out of the ARC and one each from the NACC and MWC means you still have two more regionally ranked spots to use.

[USee]

RE: Wheaton's SOS

In 2019, North Central's non-conference opponent finished 2-8.  Christopher Newport ought to do better than that on average, so North Central caught some bad luck there, but obviously not enough to keep them out. 

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting. 

I'd also note that in 2019 some weird stuff happened that made the Pool C bubble very, very small. 
- Redlands and Chapman both upset NWC teams and created profiles (high SOS + RRO wins) that made the SCIAC a two-bid league.  No bid stealing there- those were earned, but that's also not the norm and that's not repeated this year 
- Central upset Wartburg and stole a bid- Wartburg's SOS was over .550 and they were a lock
- UW-Oshkosh upset UW-Whitewater in the last game of the DIII regular season and stole a bid 

Could weird stuff happen this year?  Definitely.  We also don't quite know how the extra regions are going to influence the selections.  Do two extra choices on the table help or hurt a team that has the kind of profile that Wheaton is probably going to have (SOS just under .500, 0-1 vs RRO)?  We just don't know.  It's going to be fun to really dive in on this over the last few weeks of the season.

I think a RRO of 0-1 is overly pessimistic. Do we know how many teams are going to be ranked regionally? If it's 8 like I have seen mentioned but I don't think confirmed is 8. With the CCIW, ARC, NACC, MWC as the region, is there any way the CCIW doesn't end up with 3 ranked teams as long as CCIW's 3-10 don't continually beat each other up. Wheaton, North Central, two out of the ARC and one each from the NACC and MWC means you still have two more regionally ranked spots to use.

Really good point. With the new format of regions, RRO will be more broad and CCIW teams only need to be ranked ahead of MWC, NACC and ARC. Depends on how many teams they will rank now.

[USee]

I totally get fans being irked that 2 teams they beat are ranked higher but I am not sure what sense it makes for a coach to voice that to his players. Pretty entertaining clip Pat!

It's funny to me that Coach Thorne is pretending to be offended by their place in the polls. And there was not a team ranked ahead of his team that they beat by 24 points. Two very different teams in a very different year. I look forward to him finding that out.

The polls are certainly more speculative, but you do have an NCC team with a large number of returning starters and players from their Championship team. So ranking UWW ahead of the defending champions, given what we know about each team, seems like some voters are putting a longer history on their vote than logical. I think UWW is top 5 but I would definitely rank NCC (before last week) ahead of them and Mt Union. I know that's blasphemy in Purple country, but I am certainly not alone in that thinking.

[Gregory Sager]

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting.

I don't claim to be an expert on UMAC football -- does such a thing even exist? -- but we have enough of a sample size after three weeks to be able to see some preliminary indications of where that league's teams stand, given the caliber of the non-conference opponents they've faced and the results obtained against them. And it doesn't look good for the Eagles. They've given up 56, 58, and 71 points in their first three games, which they've lost by a ridiculous average score of 62-11. In those three games they've been outgained by an average of 600 yards to 173 -- and all three of UN's opponents took their foot off the gas by emptying their benches, so it's not as though somebody chose to run it up on the Eagles.

To which you might answer, "Yeah, but one of those three opponents was Top-5-caliber Wheaton." Sure, but the other two teams that whomped the Eagles, Buena Vista and UW-River Falls, likely won't be world-beaters this season. BVU certainly has a prolific offense; the Beavers are averaging 50 ppg this season thus far. Problem is, they're giving up an average of 52, and their record is already 1-2, 0-1. It's been a long time since BVU football was taken seriously in the IIAC/ARC, and the Beavers were picked to finish last in the nine-team ARC in the league's preseason coaches poll. Similarly, UWRF was tabbed to finish last in the eight-team WIAC in that league's preseason poll, and the Falcons haven't enjoyed a winning season in two decades.

The likely response to that is, "OK, but the UMAC as a whole is cannon fodder for everybody in the upper midwest this time of year. How do you forecast who's going to be really bad in a league stocked with bad teams?" Fair enough; the UMAC is 4-13 in non-conference play thus far, with three games remaining. But the three UMAC teams that've won games this season all appear to be in better shape than the Eagles, Greenville in particular. Of the three UMAC teams besides Northwestern that are still winless, Minnesota-Morris is a good bet to finish higher than UN, based upon their battle to the wire at Macalester (the Cougars had the ball at the Macalester 28 in the final minute, trailing by six, and suffered an interception in the end zone) and their two-point loss to Hamline; Macalester was a middling MWC program that will not fare as well now that the Scots have returned from their self-imposed exile and rejoined the MIAC, but I'll wager that they're still better than most UMAC outfits. Hamline's traditionally a lowest-tier MIAC team, and the fact that the Pipers gave up 38 and 28 to Crown and Minnesota-Morris, respectively, doesn't bode well for them this year, either. But when you're a UMAC team, a two-point loss to a MIAC team is a two-point loss to a MIAC team, i.e., it's a silver-lining kind of defeat, regardless of the MIAC-level caliber involved.

Crown and Finlandia appear to be right down there with Northwestern, based upon early results. But even if the Eagles beat both Crown and Finlandia, and I spot you a UN victory over Minnesota-Morris or an upset win over one of the three UMAC teams that have won a game to date, the Eagles still fall short of that 4-or-5-win threshold you mentioned.

Bottom line: Given the extreme ugliness of Northwestern's first three results, I'm skeptical that even seven games remaining against UMAC competition will turn the Eagles from a Wheaton-schedule liability to a Wheaton-schedule asset.

[Gregory Sager]

RE: Wheaton's SOS

In 2019, North Central's non-conference opponent finished 2-8.  Christopher Newport ought to do better than that on average, so North Central caught some bad luck there, but obviously not enough to keep them out. 

Northwestern doesn't play in the NJAC, but comparing Northwestern to CNU in 2019, Northwestern actually ended that season with a higher OWP than CNU did.  We'll see where Northwestern's OWP lands this year (it doesn't look like it will be quite as high- Central helped a lot)but if Northwestern can win 4-5 games, I don't think this will be the SOS disaster that might be feared.  It's hard to get too far away from that .500 number when you play in a 10-team league with a full round robin.  If for some reason, that number ends up in the .460s and there isn't another ranked opponent that emerges from Wheaton's schedule, Selection Sunday gets very interesting. 

I'd also note that in 2019 some weird stuff happened that made the Pool C bubble very, very small. 
- Redlands and Chapman both upset NWC teams and created profiles (high SOS + RRO wins) that made the SCIAC a two-bid league.  No bid stealing there- those were earned, but that's also not the norm and that's not repeated this year 
- Central upset Wartburg and stole a bid- Wartburg's SOS was over .550 and they were a lock
- UW-Oshkosh upset UW-Whitewater in the last game of the DIII regular season and stole a bid 

Could weird stuff happen this year?  Definitely.  We also don't quite know how the extra regions are going to influence the selections.  Do two extra choices on the table help or hurt a team that has the kind of profile that Wheaton is probably going to have (SOS just under .500, 0-1 vs RRO)?  We just don't know.  It's going to be fun to really dive in on this over the last few weeks of the season.

I think a RRO of 0-1 is overly pessimistic. Do we know how many teams are going to be ranked regionally? If it's 8 like I have seen mentioned but I don't think confirmed is 8. With the CCIW, ARC, NACC, MWC as the region, is there any way the CCIW doesn't end up with 3 ranked teams as long as CCIW's 3-10 don't continually beat each other up. Wheaton, North Central, two out of the ARC and one each from the NACC and MWC means you still have two more regionally ranked spots to use.

That's a good expansion upon Pat's earlier point this morning that being separated from the WIAC and the OAC in the new alignment benefits the CCIW in terms of garnering an at-large bid, in the sense that the CCIW is likely to get at least one other team regionally ranked (allowing Wheaton to at least break even in RRO) regardless of how relatively mediocre the rest of the CCIW's upper half happens to be this season. Of course, RRO is a separate criterion than SOS, the latter of which is almost certainly going to be not-so-good for Wheaton.