FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[OzJohnnie]

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

UWL is the exception.  Their only loss so far was a to-the-wire affair against the currently #7 DII team.  It's a loss that doesn't count.  In fact, some may treat it like a win.

Bethel may be an exception as i could see the committee counting two losses to SJU (knock on wood) as only one loss.  With the new and dynamically scheduled conference championship week concept in the MIAC, BU is forced to play the Johnnies twice in-conference.  It's feasible for the committee to look past that setup.

Yes, 1 + 1 = 1. Unfortunately, I think that type math only works in Minnesota. If Bethel got credit for only one loss it seems only fair that SJU be credited with only one victory. 

No doubt.  I'm not advocating.  I'm just guessing what sort of crazy voodoo could happen this year.  It's been a few years since we've had particularly unexplainable picks into the post season, but the committee is changing the process a bit by not ranking the teams until week 10 now.  Makes a lot of room for hi-jinx.

[WUPHF]

In recent yearS? I see only ONE year mentioned and it looks like it was still a W for the Central DuPagers.
Will Bullie even play?

[D3FLETCH]

Wheaton needs to focus on the recently surging Titans. If IWU can run the ball effectively with Bullie/Marre/Albin the game could get interesting. The titans have done a good job keeping games close against Wheaton in recent years.

2014
(3-6) IWU 7
(9-0) Wheaton 13

In recent yearS? I see only ONE year mentioned and it looks like it was still a W for the Central DuPagers.
Will Bullie even play?
The only thing that will be surging for the Weenies will be their posteriors as the Crusaders will knock
The p👀p out of them. 

Knock the Poop out of them?.... very 2016

[D3FLETCH]

In recent yearS? I see only ONE year mentioned and it looks like it was still a W for the Central DuPagers.
Will Bullie even play?

Norm did the Mr. Miyagi hand rubbing. Kid will be good for 150.

[Next Man Up]

Wheaton needs to focus on the recently surging Titans. If IWU can run the ball effectively with Bullie/Marre/Albin the game could get interesting. The titans have done a good job keeping games close against Wheaton in recent years.

2014
(3-6) IWU 7
(9-0) Wheaton 13

In recent yearS? I see only ONE year mentioned and it looks like it was still a W for the Central DuPagers.
Will Bullie even play?
The only thing that will be surging for the Weenies will be their posteriors as the Crusaders will knock
The p👀p out of them. 

Knock the Poop out of them?.... very 2016

Just avoiding using another 4 letter word. Political correctness you know. 😏

[Next Man Up]

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

UWL is the exception.  Their only loss so far was a to-the-wire affair against the currently #7 DII team.  It's a loss that doesn't count.  In fact, some may treat it like a win.

Bethel may be an exception as i could see the committee counting two losses to SJU (knock on wood) as only one loss.  With the new and dynamically scheduled conference championship week concept in the MIAC, BU is forced to play the Johnnies twice in-conference.  It's feasible for the committee to look past that setup.

Yes, 1 + 1 = 1. Unfortunately, I think that type math only works in Minnesota. If Bethel got credit for only one loss it seems only fair that SJU be credited with only one victory. 

No doubt.  I'm not advocating.  I'm just guessing what sort of crazy voodoo could happen this year.  It's been a few years since we've had particularly unexplainable picks into the post season, but the committee is changing the process a bit by not ranking the teams until week 10 now.  Makes a lot of room for hi-jinx.

Love the crazy voodoo and hi-jinx references. Unfortunately, they might result in a deserving team being left out of the playoffs. We almost saw it last year with NCC being the last team picked.

[kiko]

A stoush and I didn't even realise.

I think Wheaton's best hope is that Bethel gets passed up because the MIAC made them play SJU twice this year.  If BU beats SJU in the MIAC championship then I think there's no room left for Wheaton.  HSU, UWL, Randolf-Macon, Ithica, and BU/SJU all have significantly stronger schedules than Wheaton.  The argument can be made that John-Hopkins/Susquehanna do as well.

Teams really need to beef up that out-of-conference schedule.  Can't play 2-6 teams from the MWC anymore when you're not certain to win out conference play.  Top teams are all getting too aware of selection Sunday and scheduling to position well.  SJU used to finish middle of the pack in SOS but not any more.  Now winning teams are scheduled for the non-conference games.

At present, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, and Susquehanna are all 6-1/7-1 in the Centennial Conference.  Muhlenberg plays at Susquehanna this weekend, after which the H2H games between the three teams will be finished.  (Hopkins beat Susquehanna, Muhlenberg beat Hopkins, and fourth place Ursinus beat Muhlenberg.)  All of this is to say there will almost certainly be two 8-1/9-1 teams coming out of this conference.

Susquehanna was 8-1/9-1 when the playoff field was determined in 2019, and is generally regarded as number six in the Pool C pecking order in a year where five teams were selected.

The scheduling challenge is tricky in that it takes two to tango and given the wider gap in talent for football vis a vis some other sports, some teams understandably want nothing to do with traditionally strong programs for non-conference games.  North Central knows this all too well from some of the scheduling choices it has had to make in the past.  Adding Wash U to the CCIW halved this issue while also adding a quality program to the mix, but even scheduling one quality opponent is not always a given.

[kiko]

Last ten Wheaton-IWU matchups:

2010 - Wheaton 29, Illinois Wesleyan 19
2011 - Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wheaton 19
2012 - Wheaton 38, Illinois Wesleyan 33
2013 - Illinois Wesleyan 30, Wheaton 19
2014 - Wheaton 13, Illinois Wesleyan 7
2015 - Wheaton 40, Illinois Wesleyan 27
2016 - Wheaton 48, Illinois Wesleyan 24
2017 - Illinois Wesleyan 14, Wheaton 10
2018 - Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wheaton 14
2019 - Wheaton 24, Illinois Wesleyan 10

IDK what constitutes "close" as that is in the eye of the beholder, but only one of these has been more than a two-score game.  It seems pretty clear that Wheaton is waxing and the Titans are waning relative to where they were a few years prior, though, so I would be surprised if that trend continues.

[OzJohnnie]

The scheduling challenge is tricky in that it takes two to tango and given the wider gap in talent for football vis a vis some other sports, some teams understandably want nothing to do with traditionally strong programs for non-conference games.  North Central knows this all too well from some of the scheduling choices it has had to make in the past.  Adding Wash U to the CCIW halved this issue while also adding a quality program to the mix, but even scheduling one quality opponent is not always a given.

Yes, it's getting quite tough.  We've scheduled a two-year home-and-away series with Aurora which finishes next year and a two-year home-and-away series with Whitewater which starts next year.  That's some pretty stiff competition and makes winning the AQ very important for post-season glory.

Pretty much the scheduling choices are either weak programs who will take a payday for out of conference games or strong teams that believe they can still make it with a non-conference loss.

[HSCTiger74]

A stoush and I didn't even realise.

I think Wheaton's best hope is that Bethel gets passed up because the MIAC made them play SJU twice this year.  If BU beats SJU in the MIAC championship then I think there's no room left for Wheaton.  HSU, UWL, Randolf-Macon, Ithica, and BU/SJU all have significantly stronger schedules than Wheaton.  The argument can be made that John-Hopkins/Susquehanna do as well.

Teams really need to beef up that out-of-conference schedule.  Can't play 2-6 teams from the MWC anymore when you're not certain to win out conference play.  Top teams are all getting too aware of selection Sunday and scheduling to position well.  SJU used to finish middle of the pack in SOS but not any more.  Now winning teams are scheduled for the non-conference games.

So can 8-2 teams with tougher schedules jump a 9-1 team with a weaker schedule if Wheaton wins out? Ithaca plays two 8-0 teams in a row to close out their season. UWL still has 8-0 Whitewater on their schedule. Randolph-Macon has a somewhat easier team in Sidney Hampden-Henry but it isn't a guarantee.

  I've got to admit that I've seen my alma mater's name butchered on more than one occasion, but this is certainly the weirdest so far.   

[wally_wabash]

A stoush and I didn't even realise.

I think Wheaton's best hope is that Bethel gets passed up because the MIAC made them play SJU twice this year.  If BU beats SJU in the MIAC championship then I think there's no room left for Wheaton.  HSU, UWL, Randolf-Macon, Ithica, and BU/SJU all have significantly stronger schedules than Wheaton.  The argument can be made that John-Hopkins/Susquehanna do as well.

Teams really need to beef up that out-of-conference schedule.  Can't play 2-6 teams from the MWC anymore when you're not certain to win out conference play.  Top teams are all getting too aware of selection Sunday and scheduling to position well.  SJU used to finish middle of the pack in SOS but not any more.  Now winning teams are scheduled for the non-conference games.

So can 8-2 teams with tougher schedules jump a 9-1 team with a weaker schedule if Wheaton wins out? Ithaca plays two 8-0 teams in a row to close out their season. UWL still has 8-0 Whitewater on their schedule. Randolph-Macon has a somewhat easier team in Sidney Hampden-Henry but it isn't a guarantee.

This does happen, but is rare and seems less likely to happen now that at-large bids have been reduced to just five.  When we've seen 8-2 teams go in over 9-1 teams in the past, it typically happens at the end of the process and over teams with not a lot of primary criteria to stand on other than a 0.900 win percentage.  I'd have a hard time seeing an 8-2 (in Division III) team in the field and not Wheaton. 

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

UWL is the exception.  Their only loss so far was a to-the-wire affair against the currently #7 DII team.  It's a loss that doesn't count.  In fact, some may treat it like a win.

Bethel may be an exception as i could see the committee counting two losses to SJU (knock on wood) as only one loss.  With the new and dynamically scheduled conference championship week concept in the MIAC, BU is forced to play the Johnnies twice in-conference.  It's feasible for the committee to look past that setup.

La Crosse is an interesting case.  The secondary criteria tell us to use non-Division III win percentage, not results against non-Division III opponents and the difference is subtle but important.  That La Crosse lost their out-of-division game is the only thing that matters- not what the score was or who the opponent was.  I'm not sure that's entirely appropriate, but that's the criteria.  UWL's result on Saturday will go a long way in determining whether or not we have to tap into that secondary criteria.

I think if we wanted to only account for one of Bethel's games against SJU in the instance that the result is the same, you'd have to make similar adjustments to their RRO and SOS- have to double count everywhere or nowhere.  I don't think there's enough data to justify scrubbing out a point, even if that point is redundant. 

[WUPHF]

IDK what constitutes "close" as that is in the eye of the beholder, [...]

He is trolling...

[USee]

Well it's clear that if you can run the ball against Wheaton (#1 rush D in the conference and #3 in the nation) your chances of winning go up dramatically. No one has run it on them this year save North Central's QB a little (He had 66 of their 129 yds rushing). That's the strength of this team, the DLine and the OLine (#14 rushing Off in the country). So if you are going to beat the Thunder, you have to compete up front. IWU rushed for a zillion yards last week, but they rushed for 75 yds against NCC (NCC rushed for over 350) in a game that wasn't as close as Norm would like you to think. Sage Shindler, IWU's QB, is not any kind of running threat (up to now) and Bullie is hurt. If IWU is gonna compete on Saturday it will start up front on both sides.

[hazzben]

Agreed on UWL--I was assuming 8-2 on a D3 schedule. They will ostensibly be a 9-1 team.

No chance on Bethel at 8-2. I don't see it. The committee isn't going to look past a second loss, no matter the details

Yeah, I don't think Bethel jumps a 1 loss team. The quirk probably makes them the most likely 2 loss to get selected. But it doesn't look like any 2 loss teams are making the field as an at large selection this year. Barring some chaos over the final weeks.

[D3FLETCH]

IDK what constitutes "close" as that is in the eye of the beholder, [...]

He is trolling...

Was definitely trolling.... but look at those results  . IWU has played well against the Thunder. Pure luck or further evidence of the greatness of Norm "Amos Alonzo Stagg" Eash. Bet IWU with Points (If you are a gambler: 2 Team (IWU with Points, Over). Degenerate: 4 Team Tease (IWU with Points, Over, Wash U points and under)