FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarollFan]

With Carroll's QB and top WR gone this year, NP defeating Carroll for a Homecoming victory will probably not be an upset.

Weren't you advocating to get rid of the NP football program a couple weeks ago?
Carroll 6-1 vs. NPU since coming back to the conference.
Currently on 5 game win streak.
We may have problems on offense but we got a D.
Last year Eck threw 4 picks including a pick 6. The year before he threw us a couple picks. Until you beat the streak...it's an upset.

Now let me go worry about getting thumped by Wheaton

[Gregory Sager]

I agree. NPU beating Carroll would definitely be an upset.

Why? It has nothing to do with what either team or fanbase feels will be the expected outcome. And where the two teams are situated this season in terms of 2024 records and prior performances will only have a limited effect. And the outcome itself will not be caused by last year or the year before or the past seven years, or anything that Matt Eck has done or hasn't done before. None of that will really matter when NPU and Carroll meet, because the things that CarollFan mentioned don't have any real bearing on how the two teams, as well as individual players such as Eck, will perform this season when they play each other.

No, the reason why North Park is the underdog is because of predictive models. Predictive models define who is the favorite and who is the underdog in an upcoming game. And the predictive models favor the Pioneers over the Vikings. Logan Hansen is currently rating Carroll as the #55 team in D3 football and NPU as the #82 team. Massey has Carroll #64 and NPU #148, and forecasts a 34-24 Pioneers win over the Vikings in Week Six in Chicago, with Carroll having a 72% win probability.

Wait, you're saying, since predictive models are based upon the past, isn't that the same thing as what CarollFan is saying? No, it isn't. He's essentially saying that the past is going to impinge upon the present and cause the Pios to win at Hedstrand Field on October 12. And that's both nonsense (if the past dictated outcomes, the standings would be static from one year to the next and there'd be no reason to play new football seasons at all) and not germane to the subject at hand. The subject at hand isn't the question, "Who will win the Carroll @ NPU game on October 12?" but rather, "Who is the favorite and who is the underdog in the Carroll @ NPU game on October 12?"

[CarollFan]

At least we don't have to worry about stuff like this in D3.

https://x.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1838807631319667151?t=77OyYQTzroqfNUfF9nUBYg&s=19

[CarollFan]

I agree. NPU beating Carroll would definitely be an upset.

Why? It has nothing to do with what either team or fanbase feels will be the expected outcome. And where the two teams are situated this season in terms of 2024 records and prior performances will only have a limited effect. And the outcome itself will not be caused by last year or the year before or the past seven years, or anything that Matt Eck has done or hasn't done before. None of that will really matter when NPU and Carroll meet, because the things that CarollFan mentioned don't have any real bearing on how the two teams, as well as individual players such as Eck, will perform this season when they play each other.

No, the reason why North Park is the underdog is because of predictive models. Predictive models define who is the favorite and who is the underdog in an upcoming game. And the predictive models favor the Pioneers over the Vikings. Logan Hansen is currently rating Carroll as the #55 team in D3 football and NPU as the #82 team. Massey has Carroll #64 and NPU #148, and forecasts a 34-24 Pioneers win over the Vikings in Week Six in Chicago, with Carroll having a 72% win probability.

Wait, you're saying, since predictive models are based upon the past, isn't that the same thing as what CarollFan is saying? No, it isn't. He's essentially saying that the past is going to impinge upon the present and cause the Pios to win at Hedstrand Field on October 12. And that's both nonsense (if the past dictated outcomes, the standings would be static from one year to the next and there'd be no reason to play new football seasons at all) and not germane to the subject at hand. The subject at hand isn't the question, "Who will win the Carroll @ NPU game on October 12?" but rather, "Who is the favorite and who is the underdog in the Carroll @ NPU game on October 12?"

I wasn't saying the Pios would win. Mark was pointing out our offensive issues. I was just pointing out defense comes into play to in the games we've played. I'll leave the predictive modeling to Logan Hansen.

[CarollFan]

Games this week. Over hit on every game last week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

WashU @ NCC -32.1
NPU -30.8 @ Elmhurst
Augie -22.7 @ Millikin
Wheaton -20.4 @ Carroll
Carthage @ IWU -16

[robertgoulet]

Games this week. Over hit on every game last week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

WashU @ NCC -32.1
NP -30.8 @ Elmhurst
Augie -22.7 @ Millikin
Wheaton -20.4 @ Carroll
Carthage @ IWU -16

Fool me once, Mr. Hansen. Boy do those spreads look LOW.

[Gregory Sager]

At least we don't have to worry about stuff like this in D3.

https://x.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1838807631319667151?t=77OyYQTzroqfNUfF9nUBYg&s=19

Every day I feel better and better about my lifestyle choice to be the salmon swimming upstream within American culture by devoting my time and attention to D3 and completely ignoring D1.

[Gregory Sager]

I wasn't saying the Pios would win. Mark was pointing out our offensive issues. I was just pointing out defense comes into play to in the games we've played. I'll leave the predictive modeling to Logan Hansen.

Fair enough.

[Gregory Sager]

Games this week. Over hit on every game last week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

WashU @ NCC -32.1
NP -30.8 @ Elmhurst
Augie -22.7 @ Millikin
Wheaton -20.4 @ Carroll
Carthage @ IWU -16

Fool me once, Mr. Hansen. Boy do those spreads look LOW.

Now you're getting the hang of it, RG:

The motto of CCIW football should be, "Always take the over."

Incidentally, low spreads or not, I wonder if North Park has ever before been a 31-point favorite for a CCIW football game. Also, I certainly hope that there aren't any NPU players who pay attention to this stuff.

[CarollFan]

Incidentally, low spreads or not, I wonder if North Park has ever before been a 31-point favorite for a CCIW football game. Also, I certainly hope that there aren't any NPU players who pay attention to this stuff.

IWU had 316 rushing yards on Elmhurst on 50 attempts, avg. 6.3 a carry.
Their QB alone had 101 yards rushing.

[CarollFan]

Final Wheaton 22 Carroll 10
Under hit more then over this week.

Wheaton struggled with their running game but the passing game was enough. They also were 4 for 5 on 4rth down conversions

Carroll QB struggled again with 2 picks in first half. Wheaton scoring 10 points off the turnovers.

Final stats
https://gopios.com/sidearmstats/football/team-stats;period=F

[Cardinal773]

Geo got himself a passing TD.

Speaking of passing touchdowns, Luke Lehnen got another one today -- and another one after that.  That's at least one TD pass in each of his 47 collegiate games.

[CarollFan]

WashU @ NCC -32.1.          Final NCC 49 WashU 9
NPU -30.8 @ Elmhurst.        Final Elmhurst 28 NPU 21
Augie -22.7 @ Millikin.         Final Augie 24 Millikin 20
Wheaton -20.4 @ Carroll.    Final Wheaton 22 Carroll 10
Carthage @ IWU -16.          Final IWU 35 Carthage 0

[lmitzel]

Geo got himself a passing TD.

Speaking of passing touchdowns, Luke Lehnen got another one today -- and another one after that.  That's at least one TD pass in each of his 47 collegiate games.

Was in doubt for a bit, as Lehnen hit his head pretty hard on the turf early in the game and had to come out. I saw him during the second quarter holding his helmet on the sideline so I was cautiously optimistic.

Calvin Lavery played basically the whole second quarter and part of the third before he himself got hurt, at which point Lehnen returned and pretty much immediately was back to doing Luke Lehnen things.

NCC's defense did a great job today though, holding the Bears to 145 yards, sacking Levi Moore four times and forcing a pretty bad passing day. Luke Johnston led WashU's lone scoring drive of the day but also threw a late pick-6 that closed out the scoring.

[Gregory Sager]

Well, so much for the dream of ending The Streak this year.

NPU laid an egg today, plain and simple. The Vikings revisted their slapdash performance in Week One against Ripon with the same problems -- dumb penalities and poor tackling -- and added the problem of poor containment. Last week Millikin couldn't gain the end if the Big Blue's lives depended upon it. Today 'jays rushers seemed to get outside and then downfield at will.

Plenty to blame on the offense as well, as the running game was nonexistent, Matt Eck threw a couple of ill-advised passes in the first quarter that were picked off and thus blunted any early momentum North Park had, and Eck was battered by a lot of hits and sacks by Elmhurst defenders. And special teams did its part, giving up a ridiculous 97-yard TD kickoff return after cutting EU's first-half lead down to a touchdown -- a kickoff, I might add, that was initially placed perfectly by Carson Blatchford (in the corner at the 3-yard-line) as far as defending the runback was concerned.

I watched last week's IWU @ EU game, and I didn't even recognize today's Bluejays. It was as if a totally different group of football players had dressed up in those baby-blue unis and stepped onto Langhorst Field today than the team that couldn't do anything right against the Titans. Elmhurst had a plan, executed it well, and played with a ton of energy and heart. North Park played like a team that expected to win by 30 points and then was confused from the get-go that Elmhurst was declining to cooperate.

North Park outgained Elmhurst by 130 yards, which only serves to underscore why total offensive yardage is like the national popular vote in a presidential election -- a meaningless statistic that usually only gets cited by the loser as though it was worth something. The fact of the matter is that the team that won today at Langhorst Field is the team that deserved to win.

The bad thing about football is that the schedule is so minimal compared to other sports that a single bad loss can blow your entire season. NPU has to find a way to not let that happen as the Vikings prepare to head to Rock Island next Saturday.