FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarollFan]

One additional thing about NPI.
There is a minimum of 5 wins that have to be included in overall calculation. It sounds like they put this in because some wins against teams with low NPI's could actually drag your overall NPI down so they won't be included in overall calculation.
Like I don't know that Wheaton's next 2 games against Elmhurst and Millikin will even be included in their overall calculation.

[CarollFan]

I think you Wheaton fans want to root for NPU this weekend.
Right now you have 5 wins included in your calculations.
WashU, Carroll, IWU, Augie and Carthage. After the NPU game, (I assume a Wheaton win), NPU should be added to your calculations and I believe Carthage, Elmhurst and Millikin will not be included.
If Carthage somehow upsets NPU, look out below....

As far as dropping wins from the calculation:

It does look like for NCC who has 7 wins they are currently using 5 in the calculation. I forgot the guys from Datacast had an adjusted W and adjusted L column.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

[CuriousCCIWfan]

Go NPU, you convinced me!!!

[CarollFan]

Yes you still may get in but at the end of the day, the better your opponents NPI the better for u.

[D3Rookie]

I would say you should listen to the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

Pat, Frank did mention you.

I can't do anything about that. They've definitely made it personal and not sure why.

I listen to both podcasts. I like Logan's segment you added this year.
Frank is pointing out the results of using NPI and I'm sure a lot of us agree with what he is pointing out. At the same time if you're going to criticize the use of NPI you might as well understand how it works. At the end of the day the old system used wins, so does NPI. The old system used SOS, so does NPI. The subjectivity has been taking out and that caused some issues in the past.
I think a good question to ask is why did the NCAA choose the weights they did for wins and SOS? Especially since they are different than what they are using in other sports where SOS has a greater weight.

I've largely stopped listening to Frank's show.  While I appreciate his efforts to shine a spotlight on D3 football and to humanize the players/coaches, his "angry Frank" schtick is a turn-off. Hopefully, he'll melow-out.

If I had more time, I'd love to find the thread on X from late Aug. or early Sept. where he blasted Logan's predictions on the teams most likely to secure a top 8 playoff slot.  I can't recall the list but (at the time) I thought the top 5 teams Logan listed were solid picks and I didn't understand Frank's negative reaction.  Once the season wraps up, I'll probably revisit that to see if Frank's comments make more sense with the benefit of hindsight.
 

[CarollFan]

I would say you should listen to the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

Pat, Frank did mention you.

I can't do anything about that. They've definitely made it personal and not sure why.

I listen to both podcasts. I like Logan's segment you added this year.
Frank is pointing out the results of using NPI and I'm sure a lot of us agree with what he is pointing out. At the same time if you're going to criticize the use of NPI you might as well understand how it works. At the end of the day the old system used wins, so does NPI. The old system used SOS, so does NPI. The subjectivity has been taking out and that caused some issues in the past.
I think a good question to ask is why did the NCAA choose the weights they did for wins and SOS? Especially since they are different than what they are using in other sports where SOS has a greater weight.

I've largely stopped listening to Frank's show.  While I appreciate his efforts to shine a spotlight on D3 football and to humanize the players/coaches, his "angry Frank" schtick is a turn-off. Hopefully, he'll melow-out.

If I had more time, I'd love to find the thread on X from late Aug. or early Sept. where he blasted Logan's predictions on the teams most likely to secure a top 8 playoff slot.  I can't recall the list but (at the time) I thought the top 5 teams Logan listed were solid picks and I didn't understand Frank's negative reaction.  Once the season wraps up, I'll probably revisit that to see if Frank's comments make more sense with the benefit of hindsight.
 

Don't go looking at twitter yet....they had stuff starting up this week.

[USee]

5 wins is the minimum calculation. Once a team gets to 5 wins the next incremental win, if it helps your NPI it's added, if it hurts your NPI its dropped. So a team has to use at least 5 wins toward NPI but could use 10 wins if they all help.

For Wheaton, their win% will increase with each additional win (win% is 40% of the win/SOS metric). With 2 early losses that metric was likely holding them down. The Elmhurst and Millikin games will undoubtedly hurt their NPI so likely will get dropped. The NPU game should help their NPI so if they win in Week 11, their NPI should tick up and might replace the Carthage win, which currently brings down Wheaton's NPI. The variable in all of this is the NPI of all their opponents. As HansenRatings indicates, if Wheaton can get to an NPI of 64 or so, that has gotten into the field each of the last 5 years. They are currently 62.37.

[eph289]

I don't know if anyone cares about that bowl game that the CCIW plays in, but here's a thought for Wheaton fans to consider.  The Missouri team that we usually send to that game has typically been blown out. But does anyone think the Wheaton kids would have a better experience at that level, compared to taking another loss in the first or second round of the playoffs?  If I were a senior playing my last college game, I would like to remember it as a win, but playoffs are designed so that only one team gets that memory.

[CarollFan]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

[ziggy]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08 might be a little more because on the road. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

You have no idea how much it warms my heart to see this kind of post popping up on the boards!

[WUPHF]

I don't know if anyone cares about that bowl game that the CCIW plays in, but here's a thought for Wheaton fans to consider.  The Missouri team that we usually send to that game has typically been blown out.

Hard to imagine that anyone at Wheaton rather go to the bowl game, but it is possible.

Also, I am not sure anything becomes typical after only three occurrences, but that Missouri team had the best effort for a CCIW team in one of three burger bowl games played, losing by one touchdown in 2022. 

It was an Illinois team that was scoreless at the half last season and only scored after the game was mostly over.

[CarollFan]

I don't know if anyone cares about that bowl game that the CCIW plays in, but here's a thought for Wheaton fans to consider.  The Missouri team that we usually send to that game has typically been blown out.

Hard to imagine that anyone at Wheaton rather go to the bowl game, but it is possible.

Also, I am not sure anything becomes typical after only three occurrences, but that Missouri team had the best effort for a CCIW team in one of three burger bowl games played, losing by one touchdown in 2022. 

It was an Illinois team that was scoreless at the half last season and only scored after the game was mostly over.

I think the CCIW has a good chance this year whoever goes. Whatever team the WIAC sends that did not make the playoffs will be beatable. Trust me, we know. 

[USee]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08 might be a little more because on the road. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

You have no idea how much it warms my heart to see this kind of post popping up on the boards!

Ziggy, How does H/A calculation get added into this equation? Also, I assume this is the formula for each game NPI and then all the game NPI's are averaged to get a team's final NPI?

[eph289]

Hard to imagine that anyone at Wheaton rather go to the bowl game, but it is possible.

Also, I am not sure anything becomes typical after only three occurrences, but that Missouri team had the best effort for a CCIW team in one of three burger bowl games played, losing by one touchdown in 2022. 

It was an Illinois team that was scoreless at the half last season and only scored after the game was mostly over.

I think it has been great having the Washington University Bears play football in the CCIW.  I hope they will still schedule us if they have non-conference games in the future.  I don't know why the CCIW chose to end their participation. 

I made the Missouri reference because I find it ironic that the conference name does not exactly match the geography.  I guess I like things to be in order, like the Big Ten Conference should change their name if they have around 20 teams!

[CarollFan]

The other thing to consider with a NPU win is it will be their 6th win which will allow them to drop their worst win (Millikin) if it benefits their NPI.

I'll add that Carroll still has a chance at getting to 6 wins too by winning their last 2 games at home vs. IWU and Carthage. If that happens they could drop their worst win too from their NPI calculations.