FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[FatalImpact]

Write this down Elmhurst beats Carthage..This weekend.........79 Jaybird who gets the nod Freund or Lafleur.....Freund probably

[Mugsy]

that said i think mugsy's 140 yard Over/under is a touch on the aggressive side vs this athletic defense.

Maybe so... but it's not real easy to set a number.      You said so yourself that Wheaton hasn't faced a tough running back yet in 2006, so 36 yards a game rushing may not be completely indicative of how strong they are against the run.  Sorry if my wildcard pick wasn't to your liking.

fyi... I took Wallicks career average vs. Wheaton minus Wallicks 2006 yards per game, divided by 2, and then added to his 2006 yards per game to come up with the 140 yards (after rounding up).  Kinda pulling it out of a hat, but not completely. 

My thoughts were that Millikin has faced one pretty tough defense in Ohio Northern, plus another defense that was thought to be really tough (which hasn't shown it to be the case yet) in Wabash.  Wabash got up relatively big on Millikin to the point where Millikin had to pass more (thus limiting Wallick carries).  Based on this my feeling was Wallick's 103 yard average per game might be a bit lower it could or should be.

100 yards seemed low for Wallick, 170 seemed too high against the 2006 Wheaton defense, so how about in the middle?

((173 - 103) / 2) + 103 = 140

[79jaybird]

Fatal Impact that is a tough call, and to borrow the old slogan "That's why they pay them (HC's) the big bucks".  
In all honesty, both quarterbacks have performed well enough to win.  They are by no means a Dom Demma which we could rely on strong, crisp passes all the time.  They (LaFleur/Freund) do operate the offense well, and have the offense making forward strides.
Going on gut feeling.. due to the size and strength of Carthage's defense, I would have a stronger, more sturdy Q at least to start the game...which would be Freund.  When I gamble, I usually lose, so don't be surprised to see LaFleur start.  Both will probably see action on Saturday.  I think the greater concern is the running backs getting consistent yardage.  If EC becomes 1 dimensional and has to rely on the pass to move the offense, I think Carthage's LB/DB's will have an edge.  Ah, do we have to wait 5 more days for the game  

[79jaybird]

FatalImpact- one other thing.  You write down "write this down Elmhurst beats Carthage"  but then don't explain why and your reasoning for this opinion? Care to share?

[diehardfan]

Maybe so... but it's not real easy to set a number.      

I think you've done a great job so far. The numbers you pick tend to be just at the point where I have to agonize over them. 

[usee]

that said i think mugsy's 140 yard Over/under is a touch on the aggressive side vs this athletic defense.

Maybe so... but it's not real easy to set a number.      You said so yourself that Wheaton hasn't faced a tough running back yet in 2006, so 36 yards a game rushing may not be completely indicative of how strong they are against the run.  Sorry if my wildcard pick wasn't to your liking.

fyi... I took Wallicks career average vs. Wheaton minus Wallicks 2006 yards per game, divided by 2, and then added to his 2006 yards per game to come up with the 140 yards (after rounding up).  Kinda pulling it out of a hat, but not completely.

( (173 - 103) / 2) + 103 = 140

i never said i didn't like the number. its just my opinion that its kind of high (others may not agree). I can't say i have a better number to put up there. but my guess is you will have a lot of takers on the under.  his average ypc isn't as high as it was in past years which leads me to believe the oline isn't as strong.

like you said its not easy picking the wildcard. its a good category for this week. i'll send you a note on some other ideas as well. thanks for doing the pickem's etc.

[usee]

Usee
You may be right but last year the defense would sometimes over penetrate and try and chase the back from behind.  This year's team seems much more in unison.  Also Pete Intersagan and the other d-backs are so good at stopping anything that gets past the linebackers.  Not that there is no room for improvement but their really jelling as a unit with Intersagan feeling more comfortable than last year in the defensive scheme.

the one thing i have noticed this year is that the dbs for wheaton are very good tacklers. better than i ever remember.

[RedmenFB44]

As posted before who ever wins the running game in the Carthage vs. Elmhurst, will will this game. Carthage has to get their running game going if they want to win this game. Elmhurst is always a tough game. I think that whatever scores first will win this game. Momentum will be huge in this game and I think that whoever comes out and scores first will be able to take control of this game.

[Mugsy]

i never said i didn't like the number. its just my opinion that its kind of high (others may not agree). I can't say i have a better number to put up there. but my guess is you will have a lot of takers on the under.  his average ypc isn't as high as it was in past years which leads me to believe the oline isn't as strong.

like you said its not easy picking the wildcard. its a good category for this week. i'll send you a note on some other ideas as well. thanks for doing the pickem's etc.

Fair enough, you didn't state you didn't "like" the number.  

Your point about the Millikin O-Line might prove correct, but as I stated in my editted post #5100, Wallick's ypg may be lower due to playing a tough ONU defense and falling far behind Wabash (forcing more passing). 

Re-reading the Wabash posters comments after the Millikin/Wabash game makes it sound as if Millikin should have been passing all game given how effective they were in the 2nd half.  Anyway...

We'll see on this weeks wildcard breakdown.  Fortunately 3 of 4 wildcard picks have had less than a 10% difference between those picking over vs. those picking under.  This past week it was 52% to 48%.  That is my goal... to make it a relevant topic and not a one-sided pick.  I don't want it to be obvious or easy.  

[Mr. Ypsi]

usee and Mugsy,

I'll be interested in comparing pickers' over/under with their picks on the game.  140 seems like a pretty reasonable cut-off point in this respect - if Wallick goes over, Millikin's chances are greatly improved; if he is under, Wheaton will almost certainly win (barring a great disparity in turnovers).  I predict that those choosing over will either pick Millikin, or pick Wheaton with only 1 or 2 confidence, while those picking under will usually have Wheaton winning as their 3 or 4 pick.

I'm still undecided which camp I'm in!

[usee]

good points on wallick vs wabash and onu. i would only say passing alot vs wabash shouldn't affect his ypc, but certainly his total yds. certainly onu has a lot do w a lower ypc than usual.

ypsi-you are mr optionality. i expect to see your picks at the 11th hour as usual. mine are there for all to see or for just U to See.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Just checked the pickems, and my prediction is 5 for 5 so far - the only one to pick 'over' had Wheaton winning, but only as the 2 game; the four saying 'under' all had Wheaton as the 3 game (so far, NCC is unanimous as the 4 game).

usee, you cut me to the quick!  If you check back, I think my picks have usually, if not always, been in by Tues or Wed.

[Mugsy]

good points on wallick vs wabash and onu. i would only say passing alot vs wabash shouldn't affect his ypc, but certainly his total yds. certainly onu has a lot do w a lower ypc than usual.

ypsi-you are mr optionality. i expect to see your picks at the 11th hour as usual. mine are there for all to see or for just U to See.

agreed on the ypc, that is why I only comment on ypg.

[FatalImpact]

79 Jaybird.....I got no stats to shoot at ya.....I just got this gut feeling that come saturday EC gets the W and if I'm wrong......oh well

[CardinalAlum]

Maybe so... but it's not real easy to set a number.      

I think you've done a great job so far. The numbers you pick tend to be just at the point where I have to agonize over them. 

Gosh, I hate when I have to compliment Mugsy!    I think the number is fair when you consider that Wallick is(or should be) the feature of that offense.  If he doesn't rush for at least that amount, the Blue is going to have a long day.