FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[redman04]

Billy,

I am assuming that you are talking about the pass stats I listed when I said that there was a fifty point difference when it was a 59 point in actuality.  I hope it feels good to point out the shortcomings of others to make yourself feel better! 
By the way I'll be up for the Augie game.  Pre-game at Ron's?

[matblake]

While it is certainly exciting to see that North Park is seemingly on the road to improvement, let's try and keep things in perspective.  North Park just had a bye week, it is hard to keep the momentum going after that.  Augie just destroyed a decent UW-P team.   While I still believe that any team can win on any day, I just don't think that this will be the week for North Park. 

[matblake]

Also, just looked at the recap of the game at Eureka.  Looks like the Vikings kicker was 0-3 for PAT's.  NP was able to convert one 2 pt conversion but failed another.  Having to go for 2 every time or missing kicks could end up being the difference in a close game.

[Mugsy]

mugsy,
Were you a coach for wheaton? If so what year?

redman04,
I coached LB's from 90-94'.  Absolutely loved the experience.  I really wish I had another year to play football after coaching.  As a player you are so focused on your responsibility that you don't often see your role in the context of the entire scheme.  I learned so much more about football X's & O's in the 5 years after I played and respect the Wheaton staff even more seeing how they work and carry themselves on a day to day basis.  I think this different perspective on football would have helped make me a better football player.

I would have loved to have continued coaching, (provided they wanted me too), but I started grad. school and it was just too much (a job, coaching, and grad. school).

Figure I've been out of coaching long enough at Wheaton to post here.  Over 10 years has probably reduced the direct association with Coach Swider, Coach Bishop and the rest of the staff to the point where I can comment on things without point back to them.  It's a balancing act... there are topics I need to stay clear of and I try my best not to reflect poorly on the school, the Wheaton football team, and especially the Wheaton coaching staff.  I don't want to be an embarassment to Coach Swider and the staff, nor do I want to divulge any information that is sensitive in nature.  I often check with a few of the coaches to make sure I'm not crossing the line or reflecting poorly. 

[Mugsy]

My picks for the weekend ahead.

Augie over North Park by plenty
Wheaton over North Central by just enough
Milikin over Carthage by a little more than just enough
Elmhurst over IWU by somewhere between just enough and a little more than just enough

Hope ya like my scientific new point spread methodology Mugsy

Sterny,
If you go to Post Patterns, General Football, there is a board called Pick-Em's.  In Pick-Em's there is a CCIW board.  You will see how we've setup the picks... we've shifted to a Confidence Pool format, where you specify points on how confident you are about the outcome of each game - 4 down to 1.  If you can move your scientific methodolgy over there, that would be great (although you methodology does give an indication on your confidence level of these games  ) Thanks Sterny. 

Again great seeing you at the Wheaton/Greenville game.

[redman04]

Mugsy,
Not questioning your right to post here, just wondering what years.  I played at Carthage from 96-99 and wondered if there were any common years.  That's All.

Did you coach Chip Parish?  What a great player he was!

[Mugsy]

However, many people seem to want to compare paper statistics and o-line vs. d-line etc.  I don't really think this is a game to compare these types of things this early in the season.  In the first few games, stats are pretty much totally meaningless because teams are still improving and not necessarily playing to their full potential.  You seem to be one of the few pointing this fact out.

dd29,

Agreed about relative importance of stats at this point of the season, although I wouldn't state they are meaningless.  Statistics and probabilities can begin to show trends, even with small amounts of data (only 3 games), it just there is a more significant level of variance.  At this point, I will not base my opinion solely on the statistics.  

My listing of stats in this case was not meant to be a definitive case as to who will win the game.  It was merely a means of starting some dialogue on the game with something other than gut feeling.  Personally, I think the match-up between the NCC OLine and the Wheaton DLine will play a significant role in the outcome of the game - obviously no where near the only role.

[Mugsy]

Mugsy,
Not questioning your right to post here, just wondering what years.  I played at Carthage from 96-99 and wondered if there were any common years.  That's All.

Did you coach Chip Parish?  What a great player he was!

I didn't feel you were questioning my right to post at all.  In general, I try to keep the fact I coached at Wheaton on the back burner as much as possible (I don't always succeed). 

It looks a bit arrogant if on every post I start with "well, I coached... blah, blah, blah..."
I try to be very cautious on what I post, how I post, so I was giving some perspective or context on where I'm coming from.

And yes, I did get the opportunity to coach Chip during his freshman and I believe his sophomore year.  Even then you could see the kind of player he was going to be before he graduated.  What's more, you could see the quality of person he was and is as well.

[spiderman]

well about the Augie, NP game will just have to see, but I'll wait to see the sparks fly. But then again when NP played Augie last year nothing seemed to work on offense or D but now they seem to be two dimensional with the little guy in the backfield having a break out year with 4.3 yars per carry. On top of that there is no weak link at safety that will bite on play action and make the big hit when needed like that #4 guy last year. All the Bye week did was get everyone healthy again ...oh yeah I might be a the pregame...

[augiedogie]

Spiderman:

I don't think NPU's safety will bite on a playaction pass too much seeing that Augie will probably pass less than 5 times in the game on Saturday.  Not to sound like too much of an Augie Homer, but Augie is just going to run all over NPU. If you go back to last year, Augie was the only team to score and pick up yards against a very tough Carthage D. Augie also brings back their entire backfield. I'd like to see a competitive game on Saturday because it will be the first Augie game I make it back to this season, but I just don't see that happening.

[matblake]

As long as Mugsy and redman04 were talking about Chip Parrish, my sophomore year Chip Parrish, Pedro Arruza, and Jeff Brown were all on the same floor as me.  Too bad intramural football was in the fall......... All three of those guys really impressed me on the field and off.

[devildog29]

Mugsy, I suppose I shouldn't say stats are completely meaningless at this point, but to me, they are are not reliable enough to create any legitimate expectations in a game of this caliber this early in the season.  With only 3 games against uncommon opponents while still in the developmental part of the season, the stats just aren't relative enough to each other to compare.  I guess I come from the school of thought that with a game of this nature (NCC vs. Wheaton) this early in the season, there is no clear edge one way or the other "on paper."  In every football game, I think O-line vs. D-line is the most important battle of the game, whether it's the first game of the year or the national championship, but right now, without a common opponent, there's no relative way to quantify each side against one another, IMO.  To me, it comes down to intangibles.  4 total plays might make the entire difference in the whole game.  That being said, until proven otherwise, I think you have to give Wheaton the edge on intangibles at this point.  Now, if this were the 6th or 7th game of the season with some common opponents, stats might give us a better idea of how they stack up against one another.  Until then, Wheaton will find a way to be the team to make the 2 or 3 big plays that decide the winner in this one.  And here's hoping big brother Kudyba beats little brother Kudyba on Saturday.

[devildog29]

Augiedogie, I agree.  I just don't think NPU beating Eureka College shows anything as to how well they will fare against Augie.  NPU might be able to put up a few points, but I don't see their D being able to stop Augie's offense.  And as a Titan, I am most definitely not an augie homer.

[usee]

on north park-keep in mind the combined record of their opponents this year is 0-11. Augie is a little better than anyone they have played. If i were on north park i wouldn't be worrying about my safety biting on play action as much as the line of scrimmage ending up in your safety's face. it won't be any secret what augie tries to do you just have to have the horses to stop it.

[Mugsy]

on north park-keep in mind the combined record of their opponents this year is 0-11. Augie is a little better than anyone they have played. If i were on north park i wouldn't be worrying about my safety biting on play action as much as the line of scrimmage ending up in your safety's face. it won't be any secret what augie tries to do you just have to have the horses to stop it.

Usee,
I agree... while NPU has improved significantly, the key will come down to if they are physical enough to stuff Augie on the line.  While Augie does have some "trick" plays built off the double-dive, that is not what they rely on to win.  They come at you and dare you to stop them at the line of scrimmage.  This week we'll see how much better NPU really is.