FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[LETS ROLL]

My thoughts exactly. I think Wheaton wins by 10-17 points but it will be a hard fought battle.

I believe the Wheaton/IWU game will be closer to 6-8pt range.  Too many of their games have gone down to the wire recently and I believe this year is no different.

But I would love to see a 10-17pt Wheaton victory!   

Wheaton's average margin of victory vs. Wesleyan since '06 is 14.4 points... I like where I stand  ... Let's leave margin of victory in games only played in Bloomington out of this since '06 please...

Oh, but to support my view I can't leave out the away games since the game is in Bloomington.  My assertion as to why the game will be closer is based on the very close statistical comparison I provide a page or so ago and:

1. Wheaton @ IWU in 2009: 20-17 loss
2. Wheaton @ IWU in 2007: 18-14 loss (for a share of CCIW conference championship)
3. Wheaton @ IWU in 2005: 23-14 loss
4. Wheaton @ IWU in 2002: 35-21 win
5. Wheaton @ IWU in 2001: 31-13 loss

1-4 record, with loss by 3pts, 4pts, and 10pts in the last 3 games (average of 5.6 pts).

Now... granted the games at McCully Field have been complete opposite (large margins of victory), which leads to your stat on average margin of victory since 2006.

1. IWU @ Wheaton in 2010: 29-19 win
2. IWU @ Wheaton in 2008: 44-10 win
3. IWU @ Wheaton in 2006: 49-14 win
4. IWU @ Wheaton in 2004: 42-25 win
5. IWU @ Wheaton in 2003: 26-17 win (one of Wheaton's best teams, only a 9pt win)

5-0 record, with average margin of victory at 21 pts.

Other interesting stat: Wheaton has averaged 38 pts a game in the home series, but only 18.6 in the away series.

Touche Mugsy. I read and was thoroughly impressed with your statistical comparisons a couple pages back. There is no doubt that it will be a hard fought game. With that being said, I will keep my positive outlook and double digit margin of victory despite the  location of the game. I think this year's Wheaton team has the potential to be one of the best in several years (perhaps comparing to the '02, '03, '06, '08 teams). As I stated before, time will tell.

A couple factors that will also play a HUGE role in Saturday's outcome that have impacted this series in the past

1. Officiating: last trip to Bloomington, the Titans had 0 penalties...0. It seemed like Wheaton had penalties occur at the worst possible timing too.

2. Play calling: While this has been surprisingly solid this year, We've had a couple years of pretty dismal offensive calls, IMHO. Please no more draws on 3rd and long!

3. Field Position: I think that whichever team hold the field position advantage on Saturday will likely be the victor.



Oh, and if you think my faith in the thunder is a little overzealous now, just wait til North Central week...

[NCF]

My thoughts exactly. I think Wheaton wins by 10-17 points but it will be a hard fought battle.

I believe the Wheaton/IWU game will be closer to 6-8pt range.  Too many of their games have gone down to the wire recently and I believe this year is no different.

But I would love to see a 10-17pt Wheaton victory!   

Wheaton's average margin of victory vs. Wesleyan since '06 is 14.4 points... I like where I stand  ... Let's leave margin of victory in games only played in Bloomington out of this since '06 please...

Oh, but to support my view I can't leave out the away games since the game is in Bloomington.  My assertion as to why the game will be closer is based on the very close statistical comparison I provide a page or so ago and:

1. Wheaton @ IWU in 2009: 20-17 loss
2. Wheaton @ IWU in 2007: 18-14 loss (for a share of CCIW conference championship)
3. Wheaton @ IWU in 2005: 23-14 loss
4. Wheaton @ IWU in 2002: 35-21 win
5. Wheaton @ IWU in 2001: 31-13 loss

1-4 record, with loss by 3pts, 4pts, and 10pts in the last 3 games (average of 5.6 pts).

Now... granted the games at McCully Field have been complete opposite (large margins of victory), which leads to your stat on average margin of victory since 2006.

1. IWU @ Wheaton in 2010: 29-19 win
2. IWU @ Wheaton in 2008: 44-10 win
3. IWU @ Wheaton in 2006: 49-14 win
4. IWU @ Wheaton in 2004: 42-25 win
5. IWU @ Wheaton in 2003: 26-17 win (one of Wheaton's best teams, only a 9pt win)

5-0 record, with average margin of victory at 21 pts.

Other interesting stat: Wheaton has averaged 38 pts a game in the home series, but only 18.6 in the away series.

Touche Mugsy. I read and was thoroughly impressed with your statistical comparisons a couple pages back. There is no doubt that it will be a hard fought game. With that being said, I will keep my positive outlook and double digit margin of victory despite the  location of the game. I think this year's Wheaton team has the potential to be one of the best in several years (perhaps comparing to the '02, '03, '06, '08 teams). As I stated before, time will tell.

A couple factors that will also play a HUGE role in Saturday's outcome that have impacted this series in the past

1. Officiating: last trip to Bloomington, the Titans had 0 penalties...0. It seemed like Wheaton had penalties occur at the worst possible timing too.

2. Play calling: While this has been surprisingly solid this year, We've had a couple years of pretty dismal offensive calls, IMHO. Please no more draws on 3rd and long!

3. Field Position: I think that whichever team hold the field position advantage on Saturday will likely be the victor.



Oh, and if you think my faith in the thunder is a little overzealous now, just wait til North Central week...

Hope it plays out to a great week with a CARDINAL victory!!

[Always.A.Titan]

For what my opinion is worth to everyone...

No way the IWU/Wheaton game is double digits either way. From a pure IWU perspective, their defense and special teams will keep the Wheaton score under 20. I think this is enough to keep the game in single digits. This game may shape up like the 09 game with a stingy IWU defense carrying the load. If you remember that game, Ladd got knocked out and Rooney finished the game for IWU. Granted, Rooney is not your average #2 qb, but it left IWU spinning its offensive wheels for a good portion of the game.

Look for IWU to be very prepared for this one coming off their bye week. There is no doubt that they have been sprinkling in Wheaton stuff last week. Plus, Wheaton and IWU play very similar coverages in the secondary, which should hopefully help out Gallik for his first CCIW start.

IMHO, the key to this game will be turnovers. Which ever team wins the TO battle will ultimately win this one.

That being said...if you mix in the new turf, being under the lights, and the fact that it is being played south of I-80, IWU wins this one 17-13 in a defensive battle that will make fans of high-powered offenses cringe.

[Mugsy]

Wheaton's average margin of victory vs. Wesleyan since '06 is 14.4 points... I like where I stand  ... Let's leave margin of victory in games only played in Bloomington out of this since '06 please...

Oh, but to support my view I can't leave out the away games since the game is in Bloomington.  My assertion as to why the game will be closer is based on the very close statistical comparison I provide a page or so ago and:

1. Wheaton @ IWU in 2009: 20-17 loss
2. Wheaton @ IWU in 2007: 18-14 loss (for a share of CCIW conference championship)
3. Wheaton @ IWU in 2005: 23-14 loss
4. Wheaton @ IWU in 2002: 35-21 win
5. Wheaton @ IWU in 2001: 31-13 loss

1-4 record, with loss by 3pts, 4pts, and 10pts in the last 3 games (average of 5.6 pts).

Now... granted the games at McCully Field have been complete opposite (large margins of victory), which leads to your stat on average margin of victory since 2006.

1. IWU @ Wheaton in 2010: 29-19 win
2. IWU @ Wheaton in 2008: 44-10 win
3. IWU @ Wheaton in 2006: 49-14 win
4. IWU @ Wheaton in 2004: 42-25 win
5. IWU @ Wheaton in 2003: 26-17 win (one of Wheaton's best teams, only a 9pt win)

5-0 record, with average margin of victory at 21 pts.

Other interesting stat: Wheaton has averaged 38 pts a game in the home series, but only 18.6 in the away series.

Touche Mugsy. I read and was thoroughly impressed with your statistical comparisons a couple pages back. There is no doubt that it will be a hard fought game. With that being said, I will keep my positive outlook and double digit margin of victory despite the  location of the game. I think this year's Wheaton team has the potential to be one of the best in several years (perhaps comparing to the '02, '03, '06, '08 teams). As I stated before, time will tell.

A couple factors that will also play a HUGE role in Saturday's outcome that have impacted this series in the past

1. Officiating: last trip to Bloomington, the Titans had 0 penalties...0. It seemed like Wheaton had penalties occur at the worst possible timing too.

2. Play calling: While this has been surprisingly solid this year, We've had a couple years of pretty dismal offensive calls, IMHO. Please no more draws on 3rd and long!

3. Field Position: I think that whichever team hold the field position advantage on Saturday will likely be the victor.



Oh, and if you think my faith in the thunder is a little overzealous now, just wait til North Central week...

LR, I like your overzealous, positive outlook, believe me.  I will not try to dampen that at all.  In my heart I'm really pulling for an outcome closer to your prognostication.  Now if I can just get my brain to look away from recent history.

"Past games have nothing to do with or have no impact on the game this Saturday", repeat...
"Past games have nothing to do with or have no impact on the game this Saturday", repeat...

Hmmm... it is going to take a bit of work.   

[shepherd]

One of the factors IMHO on the IWU-Wheaton game is the new turf.  The last two games I saw in Bloomington on grass the Thunder looked very slow while IWU looked very fast.  Just my opinion but Wheaten seemed slow against the same players they would go against at home before and after.  Having never played on new turf and only once on old turf its just my opinion.  But as a longtime grass player there are ways to dig in on grass and if the field has no grass in spots it may effect players not used to it.  Also as a former cross country runner and triathlete knowing something about running it is my opinion that extreme forefront foot striking can give an advantage on grass.  Wheaton also seems to play pretty good at night.  Lastly this game is at the beginning of the season while the others were mid season to late season.  Just my meaningless 2cents on the game.  But as a lifetime Cub fan streaks are very powerful to me.

[devildog29]

For what my opinion is worth to everyone...

No way the IWU/Wheaton game is double digits either way. From a pure IWU perspective, their defense and special teams will keep the Wheaton score under 20. I think this is enough to keep the game in single digits. This game may shape up like the 09 game with a stingy IWU defense carrying the load. If you remember that game, Ladd got knocked out and Rooney finished the game for IWU. Granted, Rooney is not your average #2 qb, but it left IWU spinning its offensive wheels for a good portion of the game.

Look for IWU to be very prepared for this one coming off their bye week. There is no doubt that they have been sprinkling in Wheaton stuff last week. Plus, Wheaton and IWU play very similar coverages in the secondary, which should hopefully help out Gallik for his first CCIW start.

IMHO, the key to this game will be turnovers. Which ever team wins the TO battle will ultimately win this one.

That being said...if you mix in the new turf, being under the lights, and the fact that it is being played south of I-80, IWU wins this one 17-13 in a defensive battle that will make fans of high-powered offenses cringe.

From the one game I saw against Aurora, I think this and Mugsy's analysis are pretty spot on.  My two cents is IWU will play great defense and make it a game.  The outcome will hinge on a couple offensive factors.  First, is Stinde healthy?  Second, what kind of pressure will Wheaton get on Gallik?  In the Aurora game, Gallik had good numbers, but I would be curious to see how many of those passing yards were actually YAC?  It seems a lot of the passing yardage came off RB screens and WR bubble type screens.  I thought his decision making in more traditional 5-step drop type plays was a step slow, which is expected from a sophomore in his first year as a starter.  I recall several times where IWU had a slot receiver open on a seam route, but he was a step late in seeing it and getting rid of the ball.  If Wheaton gets a lot of pressure on him, I could see him get a little rattled.  This, however, also opens Wheaton up to getting burned by those screens. 

I'm sure it will be a great game.  Too bad we don't have a live video feed yet. 

[Mugsy]

Too bad we don't have a live video feed yet.

Stink!  I was counting on being able to see a live feed. 

With the $ and endowment IWU has, surely that can get this hooked up, right?  Oh yeah... it's hard to get modern technology out to the corn fields.  What are they using in Bloomington, 14.4K modems?   

[ncc_fan]

One of the factors IMHO on the IWU-Wheaton game is the new turf.  The last two games I saw in Bloomington on grass the Thunder looked very slow while IWU looked very fast.  Just my opinion but Wheaten seemed slow against the same players they would go against at home before and after.  Having never played on new turf and only once on old turf its just my opinion.  But as a longtime grass player there are ways to dig in on grass and if the field has no grass in spots it may effect players not used to it.  Also as a former cross country runner and triathlete knowing something about running it is my opinion that extreme forefront foot striking can give an advantage on grass.  Wheaton also seems to play pretty good at night.  Lastly this game is at the beginning of the season while the others were mid season to late season.  Just my meaningless 2cents on the game.  But as a lifetime Cub fan streaks are very powerful to me.

Grass is no longer an issue in Bloomington unless you're referring to the smokable kind.
http://www.iwusports.com/news/2011/6/24/FB_0624110734.aspx?path=football

[ncc_fan]

Too bad we don't have a live video feed yet.

Stink!  I was counting on being able to see a live feed. 

With the $ and endowment IWU has, surely that can get this hooked up, right?  Oh yeah... it's hard to get modern technology out to the corn fields.  What are they using in Bloomington, 14.4K modems?   

Beer Nuts' stock price must be down.

[Always.A.Titan]

IWU's defense is pretty good.....

These are from D1, D1-AA, D2, and D3. All scoring defenses under 13 pts per game...

TEAM        Division    G      Pts/G

Ill. Wesleyan         3   3   3
Bethel (MN)            3   3   4
Carthage            3   3   5.33
Amherst            3   1   7
Oberlin            3   3   7
Wabash            3   3   7
Wis.-Whitewater         3   3   7
Trinity (TX)            3   4   7.75
Temple            1   4   7.8
Alabama            1   4   8
Wisconsin            1   4   8.5
Linfield            3   2   8.5
Colorado St.-Pueblo      2   4   8.75
Florida            1   4   9
Stanford            1   3   9
Muskingum            3   3   9.33
Johns Hopkins         3   4   9.5
Virginia Tech         1   4   10
Towson            1-AA   3   10
Slippery Rock         2   4   10
Kansas St.            1   3   10.3
UCF                    1   4   11
Michigan St.         1   4   11
North Dakota St.         1-AA   3   11
Northwest Mo. St.      2   4   11
West Va. Wesleyan      2   4   11
Edinboro            2   4   11.5
Penn St.            1   4   12.5
Shepherd            2   4   12.75

[Mugsy]

IWU's defense is pretty good.....

These are from D1, D1-AA, D2, and D3. All scoring defenses under 13 pts per game...

TEAM        Division    G      Pts/G

Ill. Wesleyan         3   3   3
Bethel (MN)            3   3   4
Carthage            3   3   5.33
Amherst            3   1   7
Oberlin            3   3   7
Wabash            3   3   7
Wis.-Whitewater         3   3   7
Trinity (TX)            3   4   7.75
Temple            1   4   7.8
Alabama            1   4   8
Wisconsin            1   4   8.5
Linfield            3   2   8.5
Colorado St.-Pueblo      2   4   8.75
Florida            1   4   9
Stanford            1   3   9
Muskingum            3   3   9.33
Johns Hopkins         3   4   9.5
Virginia Tech         1   4   10
Towson            1-AA   3   10
Slippery Rock         2   4   10
Kansas St.            1   3   10.3
UCF                    1   4   11
Michigan St.         1   4   11
North Dakota St.         1-AA   3   11
Northwest Mo. St.      2   4   11
West Va. Wesleyan      2   4   11
Edinboro            2   4   11.5
Penn St.            1   4   12.5
Shepherd            2   4   12.75

True... but has IWU played against any reasonable tough offenses yet?

IWU held Aurora scoreless, but Aurora only scored 9 against NPU (please, not a statement against NPU).  IWU held Hope scoreless, but Hope isn't necessarily a juggernaut.  Millikin held Hope to 15 points.  IWU held Alma to 9 points, far under their average, but Alma's other opponents are far from strong.

I'm not saying IWU's defense isn't tough, in fact I think they will prove to be a top defense in the CCIW this year.  I'm just trying to give some context to their current national ranking based on their competition thus far.

[Always.A.Titan]

Too bad we don't have a live video feed yet.

Stink!  I was counting on being able to see a live feed. 

With the $ and endowment IWU has, surely that can get this hooked up, right?  Oh yeah... it's hard to get modern technology out to the corn fields.  What are they using in Bloomington, 14.4K modems?   

We believe in traditional connections, like dial up! We actually just got AOL 6.0!

[shepherd]

One of the factors IMHO on the IWU-Wheaton game is the new turf.  The last two games I saw in Bloomington on grass the Thunder looked very slow while IWU looked very fast.  Just my opinion but Wheaten seemed slow against the same players they would go against at home before and after.  Having never played on new turf and only once on old turf its just my opinion.  But as a longtime grass player there are ways to dig in on grass and if the field has no grass in spots it may effect players not used to it.  Also as a former cross country runner and triathlete knowing something about running it is my opinion that extreme forefront foot striking can give an advantage on grass.  Wheaton also seems to play pretty good at night.  Lastly this game is at the beginning of the season while the others were mid season to late season.  Just my meaningless 2cents on the game.  But as a lifetime Cub fan streaks are very powerful to me.

Grass is no longer an issue in Bloomington unless you're referring to the smokable kind.
http://www.iwusports.com/news/2011/6/24/FB_0624110734.aspx?path=football

I stated that in my in my first sentence.   My point is the IWU home field advantage has new aspects to it and the Thunder do not look slow on turf as they did on IWU grass. 

[Always.A.Titan]

IWU's defense is pretty good.....

These are from D1, D1-AA, D2, and D3. All scoring defenses under 13 pts per game...

TEAM        Division    G      Pts/G

Ill. Wesleyan         3   3   3
Bethel (MN)            3   3   4
Carthage            3   3   5.33
Amherst            3   1   7
Oberlin            3   3   7
Wabash            3   3   7
Wis.-Whitewater         3   3   7
Trinity (TX)            3   4   7.75
Temple            1   4   7.8
Alabama            1   4   8
Wisconsin            1   4   8.5
Linfield            3   2   8.5
Colorado St.-Pueblo      2   4   8.75
Florida            1   4   9
Stanford            1   3   9
Muskingum            3   3   9.33
Johns Hopkins         3   4   9.5
Virginia Tech         1   4   10
Towson            1-AA   3   10
Slippery Rock         2   4   10
Kansas St.            1   3   10.3
UCF                    1   4   11
Michigan St.         1   4   11
North Dakota St.         1-AA   3   11
Northwest Mo. St.      2   4   11
West Va. Wesleyan      2   4   11
Edinboro            2   4   11.5
Penn St.            1   4   12.5
Shepherd            2   4   12.75

True... but has IWU played against any reasonable tough offenses yet?

IWU held Aurora scoreless, but Aurora only scored 9 against NPU (please, not a statement against NPU).  IWU held Hope scoreless, but Hope isn't necessarily a juggernaut.  Millikin held Hope to 15 points.  IWU held Alma to 9 points, far under their average, but Alma's other opponents are far from strong.

I'm not saying IWU's defense isn't tough, in fact I think they will prove to be a top defense in the CCIW this year.  I'm just trying to give some context to their current national ranking based on their competition thus far.

A wise man once said....

"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that." ~ Homer J Simpson

You can't get to the top of any stats if you don't come to play each week and if you don't put your preparation in. Obviously no one is going to give up 3 pts/game for an entire year, but it is a heck of a start when you are trying to climb to the top of the mountain.

And it is still cool to look at that slate of stats and see the CCIW popping up ahead of the likes of Alabama and Wisconsin..and even UW-W.

[Always.A.Titan]

I am all over the board today. You guys are going to miss me when I am up North fishing next week and they have even less internet up there than they do in Bloomington.

Here is the Pantagraph article for the IWU - Wheaton game.

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/football/article_92df3630-ea64-11e0-85bf-001cc4c002e0.html