FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

This IS the inevitable hazard of point-differential tie-breaks (though I cannot even imagine that NCC or Wheaton would be playing that way with the Little Brass Bell at stake!), aside from the risk of unsporting 'running-up-the-score' considerations. 

I imagine there are unforeseen hazrds of ANY tie-break formula.

I can't imagine that either. (But it would pretty funny to see Wheaton kick an onside kick late in the game being ahead by a touchdown!  )

Actually, THAT might be a real possibility!  IF Wheaton wins by 15+ they KNOW they are in the playoffs.  If they win by less than that they HOPE they are in the playoffs.  If they were to score a TD with 12 seconds left to put them up 13, why WOULDN'T they go for two?!

[It would certainly be more valid than when Woody Hayes' Buckeyes went up on Michigan 48-14 with little time remaining and HE went for (and got) two.  When asked why he went for two, he said 'because I couldn't go for three'.  He did get the UM coach fired; they brought in this little known guy named Bo (the Ann Arbor News had a headline 'Bo Who?')  A year later everyone knew Bo Schembechler who, playing up the blatant insult all year, led UM to a 24-12 win over 'The Best Team of the Century'.  There IS a difference between going for two to guarantee the playoffs and going for two just to rub the opponents noses in the dirt! ]

[ncc_fan]

CWRU is a serious fly the ointment. If that happens, this system is seriously broken.

I haven't figured out what criteria the committees used to come up with the regional rankings.  We may belittle CWRU, but their SOS (0.498) is higher than those of #2 Franklin (0.459) & #3 Wabash (0.458).  And all three are below the SOS of one-loss NCC (0.581), IWU (0.566), and the Crusader school (0.583).

Meanwhile, over in the South region, one-loss Wesley (SOS 0.538) is ranked ahead of a undefeated Trinity (0.521) and Centre (0.569) yet behind Johns Hopkins (0.493). 

I can't make sense of it all.  I hope the national committee is giving some feedback to try to achieve consistency.

[nccfac]

"Tale of the Tape" - Wheaton vs. North Central

Records:
   Wheaton:        7-1, 4-1
   North Central:  7-1, 5-0

Statistics below are from CCIW games only, as those seem more pertinent right now.

Statistical Category	Wheaton	North Central	Comment
Offense Scoring	32.6	36.8	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Defense Scoring	11.8	5.4	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Off Pass Efficiency	154.0	125.5	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass Completion %	65.1	49.6	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass YPG	303.1	189.0	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass TD's	14	5	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off INT's	4	2
Def Pass Efficiency	104.8	80.0	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Pass Completion %	51.8	45.6	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Pass YPG	157.8	153.4
Pass TD's Allowed	5	6
Def INT's	4	8
Kick Return Ave	36.4	25.3	Wheaton #1, NCC #2 in CCIW
Punt Return Ave	7.7	11.8
Punting	38.9	39.3	Wheaton 17 punts, NCC 21
Turnover Margin	+0.60	+1.40	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Off Rush YPG	94.2	262.0	NCC #1, Wheaton #7 in CCIW
Off Yards Per Carry	2.9	6.2	NCC #1, Wheaton last in CCIW
Off Rush TD's	6	14	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Rush YPG	113.2	102.2	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Def Yards Per Carry	3.2	3.4	Wheaton #1, NCC #2 in CCIW
Def Rush TD's Allowed	3	0	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Total Offense	397.2	451.0	NCC #1 in CCIW
Total Defense	271.0	255.6
Sacks By	15	9
Sacks Allowed	9	4
1st Downs	100	107
1st Downs Allowed	83	72	NCC #1 in CCIW
Penalty YPG	70.2	75.2	Two most penalized teams in CCIW
Red Zone Offense	74.1	66.7	Wheaton 13 TDs, 7 FG's : NCC 12 TDs, 4 FG's
Red Zone Defense	63.6	33.3
Off 3rd Down Conv %	44.1	35.0	Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Opp 3rd Down Conv %	29.3	24.3	NCC #1, Wheaton #3 in CCIW
Field Goals	7 of 9	6 of 10
PAT's	16 of 21	22 of 24	Wheaton is worst in CCIW
Time of Pos	31:32	31:02

I cannot wait until Saturday so I took Mugsy's data above and dropped Millikin for NCC (aka - SoDup) and dropped NPU for Wheaton (aka Breakfast of Champions). What is left is the four common conference opponents they faced. It is clear that Wheaton has a stronger offense and NCC has the stronger defense - so it should be a real battle and closer than the two touchdowns some are predicting.

Statistical Category	Wheaton	North Central
Offense Scoring	33.75	30.75
Defense Scoring	14.75	3.25
Off Pass YPG	349.4	185.25.0
Off Pass TD's	13	3
Off INT's	4	2
Def Pass YPG	187	147
Pass TD's Allowed	5	5
Def INT's	3	6
Off Rush YPG	74	221.5
Off Rush TD's	3	8
Def Rush YPG	96	87
Def Rush TD's Allowed	3	0
Total Offense	423.5	406.75
Total Defense	283.0	234.00
Sacks By	13	9
Sacks Allowed	9	4

[NCF]

"Tale of the Tape" - Wheaton vs. North Central

Records:
   Wheaton:        7-1, 4-1
   North Central:  7-1, 5-0

Statistics below are from CCIW games only, as those seem more pertinent right now.

Statistical Category	Wheaton	North Central	Comment
Offense Scoring	32.6	36.8	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Defense Scoring	11.8	5.4	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Off Pass Efficiency	154.0	125.5	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass Completion %	65.1	49.6	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass YPG	303.1	189.0	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off Pass TD's	14	5	Wheaton #1 in CCIW
Off INT's	4	2
Def Pass Efficiency	104.8	80.0	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Pass Completion %	51.8	45.6	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Pass YPG	157.8	153.4
Pass TD's Allowed	5	6
Def INT's	4	8
Kick Return Ave	36.4	25.3	Wheaton #1, NCC #2 in CCIW
Punt Return Ave	7.7	11.8
Punting	38.9	39.3	Wheaton 17 punts, NCC 21
Turnover Margin	+0.60	+1.40	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Off Rush YPG	94.2	262.0	NCC #1, Wheaton #7 in CCIW
Off Yards Per Carry	2.9	6.2	NCC #1, Wheaton last in CCIW
Off Rush TD's	6	14	NCC #1 in CCIW
Def Rush YPG	113.2	102.2	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Def Yards Per Carry	3.2	3.4	Wheaton #1, NCC #2 in CCIW
Def Rush TD's Allowed	3	0	NCC #1, Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Total Offense	397.2	451.0	NCC #1 in CCIW
Total Defense	271.0	255.6
Sacks By	15	9
Sacks Allowed	9	4
1st Downs	100	107
1st Downs Allowed	83	72	NCC #1 in CCIW
Penalty YPG	70.2	75.2	Two most penalized teams in CCIW
Red Zone Offense	74.1	66.7	Wheaton 13 TDs, 7 FG's : NCC 12 TDs, 4 FG's
Red Zone Defense	63.6	33.3
Off 3rd Down Conv %	44.1	35.0	Wheaton #2 in CCIW
Opp 3rd Down Conv %	29.3	24.3	NCC #1, Wheaton #3 in CCIW
Field Goals	7 of 9	6 of 10
PAT's	16 of 21	22 of 24	Wheaton is worst in CCIW
Time of Pos	31:32	31:02

I cannot wait until Saturday so I took Mugsy's data above and dropped Millikin for NCC (aka - SoDup) and dropped NPU for Wheaton (aka Breakfast of Champions). What is left is the four common conference opponents they faced. It is clear that Wheaton has a stronger offense and NCC has the stronger defense - so it should be a real battle and closer than the two touchdowns some are predicting.

Statistical Category	Wheaton	North Central
Offense Scoring	33.75	30.75
Defense Scoring	14.75	3.25
Off Pass YPG	349.4	185.25.0
Off Pass TD's	13	3
Off INT's	4	2
Def Pass YPG	187	147
Pass TD's Allowed	5	5
Def INT's	3	6
Off Rush YPG	74	221.5
Off Rush TD's	3	8
Def Rush YPG	96	87
Def Rush TD's Allowed	3	0
Total Offense	423.5	406.75
Total Defense	283.0	234.00
Sacks By	13	9
Sacks Allowed	9	4

Defense wins championships so lets go Cardinals!!

[matblake]

I'm glad the usee is back.  Who knows for how long, but I'll take what I can get. 

[matblake]

SoDup tries to get through the Wheaton defense

Seriously though, if the Audobons are able to run all over the Wheaton defense like Scottie Williams did, it's going to be a long afternoon for the Thunder.

[matblake]

Another worry I have is Naperville jumping out to an early lead ala last year.  Thorne did a good job bringing that new Wildcat wrinkle that the Thunder had not seen and it took the first half for them to adjust.  SoDup executed and got the lead and let their defense do the rest.

However, it will be interesting to see how SoDup would react being down big early.  They have the athletes to come back, but it would place some more pressure on Dicken I'm sure.  Which leads us back to the importance of executing/stopping the SoDup run game, depending on which side you fall. 

[matblake]

This IS the inevitable hazard of point-differential tie-breaks (though I cannot even imagine that NCC or Wheaton would be playing that way with the Little Brass Bell at stake!), aside from the risk of unsporting 'running-up-the-score' considerations. 

I imagine there are unforeseen hazrds of ANY tie-break formula.

I can't imagine that either. (But it would pretty funny to see Wheaton kick an onside kick late in the game being ahead by a touchdown!  )

Actually, THAT might be a real possibility!  IF Wheaton wins by 15+ they KNOW they are in the playoffs.  If they win by less than that they HOPE they are in the playoffs.  If they were to score a TD with 12 seconds left to put them up 13, why WOULDN'T they go for two?!

I would go for two as well in that specific situation.  As far as onside kicks and stuff it's fun to think about, but you have to go for the win, especially with additional games remaining.  Even though Wheaton and Naperville would be expected to win against Millikin and North Park, you just never know what will happen.  Add in the fact that additional games still need to occur on the national level too.

[robertgoulet]

I'm glad the usee is back.  Who knows for how long, but I'll take what I can get.

Agreed.

Looking like solid weather for Saturday. I've seen reports of sun with temps anywhere from 55-65.

[NCF]

Another worry I have is Naperville jumping out to an early lead ala last year.  Thorne did a good job bringing that new Wildcat wrinkle that the Thunder had not seen and it took the first half for them to adjust.  SoDup executed and got the lead and let their defense do the rest.

However, it will be interesting to see how SoDup would react being down big early.  They have the athletes to come back, but it would place some more pressure on Dicken I'm sure.  Which leads us back to the importance of executing/stopping the SoDup run game, depending on which side you fall.

What aspect of the Cardinals season has lead you to believe they would be down big early? I could see them being down, but not big. If they come out playing Saturday like they did at IWU, I don't see them falling behind by a big score. If they can't pressure Meador and blow some coverage (like they did at IWU and thankfully that TD pass was overthrown), I could see this being a back and forth affair. If they play their CARDS right, they might even be able to break the pick NCAA pick six record.    Saturday can't get here soon enough!

[Kovo]

Another worry I have is Naperville jumping out to an early lead ala last year.  Thorne did a good job bringing that new Wildcat wrinkle that the Thunder had not seen and it took the first half for them to adjust.  SoDup executed and got the lead and let their defense do the rest.

However, it will be interesting to see how SoDup would react being down big early.  They have the athletes to come back, but it would place some more pressure on Dicken I'm sure.  Which leads us back to the importance of executing/stopping the SoDup run game, depending on which side you fall.

While I agree that there is nothing to indicate that we will be down big early---which I presume means two or more scores, the point is well taken.  What has been out biggest deficit this year?  Six points?  I agree that it is much easier to play with a lead than from behind.  If we get down, how will our freshman QB react?  Personally, I think that he will do great, but I have nothing to back me up other my most humble opinion.

[USee]

The biggest reason Naperville might get behind big early is because no one is expecting it. I dont think it will happen but it wouldn't be unprecedented. There are examples every week of games where team A is a big favorite and Team B wins. More often than not, the team that is a big favorite wins as expected but that's why they play the games.

[Mugsy]

Another worry I have is Naperville jumping out to an early lead ala last year.  Thorne did a good job bringing that new Wildcat wrinkle that the Thunder had not seen and it took the first half for them to adjust.  SoDup executed and got the lead and let their defense do the rest.

However, it will be interesting to see how SoDup would react being down big early.  They have the athletes to come back, but it would place some more pressure on Dicken I'm sure.  Which leads us back to the importance of executing/stopping the SoDup run game, depending on which side you fall.

What aspect of the Cardinals season has lead you to believe they would be down big early? I could see them being down, but not big. If they come out playing Saturday like they did at IWU, I don't see them falling behind by a big score. If they can't pressure Meador and blow some coverage (like they did at IWU and thankfully that TD pass was overthrown), I could see this being a back and forth affair. If they play their CARDS right, they might even be able to break the pick NCAA pick six record.    Saturday can't get here soon enough!

I didn't read anything that MB said that suggests this is what he believes will happen - that Wheaton will jump to a significant lead.  That doesn't mean it isn't possible, does it?  Let see... Wheaton gets the ball first and has a offensive game plan that somehow catches SoDup off guard (similar to what SoDup did to Wheaton last year with predominent use of wildcat).  Wheaton either scores TD or FG on first drive as a result (before SoDup can adjust).  SoDup turns the ball over in the redzone on subsequent drive and Wheaton cashes in for another FG or TD. Likely? Probably not... Outside the bounds of possible... I don't think so.

It is an honest question, that while not likely is somewhat interesting to consider.  SoDup has not played from behind this year, outside of Redlands. If down by 10 points that would seem to put some more pressure on Dickens to deliver, though not necessarily if it is in the 1st or even 2nd quarter.  For what it is worth I don't see SoDup having to change their game plan too much if down by 10 early, especially since their bread n' butter this year is to pound the rock and wear down the opponent.

Maybe it is just me but in reading between the lines (not necessarily by newcardfan's post, though the question you asked implies that you don't view it as possible), I'm interpretting quite a bit of "how dare anyone suggest that SoDup will not immediately jump to a lead or win by 14+?"

Clearly SoDup is the favorite and has some strengths that on paper Wheaton has some real challenges to overcome.  Clearly most feel SoDup should or will win by at least 14 points (if not more) and my head tells me that may well be the case.  Clearly SoDup has a depth in talent that has all other CCIW teams envious.

But is SoDup so superior to a good Wheaton team that it is implausible that Wheaton can pull an upset? (nevermind that it is a huge rivalry game with nearly 100 years of history and for the Bell, with serious implications on CCIW Champion & playoffs)

Sorry... I'll go cool off and maybe I'm reading too much into it, but starting with Titan Q's expectation over the weekend that SoDup will likely roll as they did over IWU (and since IWU beat Wheaton) and throughout the week in several other posts across various other boards, it seems as if it is a foregone conclusion that SoDup is the CCIW Champ. 

Again... that seems likely to be the case.  But this is a game against two top 25 teams, with a ton on the line, and between two opponents with an intense rivalry.  For those who don't put much weight on rivalry and the impact on games, look no further than IWU vs. Millikin.  Clearly IWU has had a significant edge in talent, yet recently there has been one upset (in 2008?) and last week wasn't too far from one.

[robertgoulet]

Another worry I have is Naperville jumping out to an early lead ala last year.  Thorne did a good job bringing that new Wildcat wrinkle that the Thunder had not seen and it took the first half for them to adjust.  SoDup executed and got the lead and let their defense do the rest.

However, it will be interesting to see how SoDup would react being down big early.  They have the athletes to come back, but it would place some more pressure on Dicken I'm sure.  Which leads us back to the importance of executing/stopping the SoDup run game, depending on which side you fall.

What aspect of the Cardinals season has lead you to believe they would be down big early? I could see them being down, but not big. If they come out playing Saturday like they did at IWU, I don't see them falling behind by a big score. If they can't pressure Meador and blow some coverage (like they did at IWU and thankfully that TD pass was overthrown), I could see this being a back and forth affair. If they play their CARDS right, they might even be able to break the pick NCAA pick six record.    Saturday can't get here soon enough!

I didn't read anything that MB said that suggests this is what he believes will happen - that Wheaton will jump to a significant lead.  That doesn't mean it isn't possible, does it?  Let see... Wheaton gets the ball first and has a offensive game plan that somehow catches SoDup off guard (similar to what SoDup did to Wheaton last year with predominent use of wildcat).  Wheaton either scores TD or FG on first drive as a result (before SoDup can adjust).  SoDup turns the ball over in the redzone on subsequent drive and Wheaton cashes in for another FG or TD. Likely? Probably not... Outside the bounds of possible... I don't think so.

It is an honest question, that while not likely is somewhat interesting to consider.  SoDup has not played from behind this year, outside of Redlands. If down by 10 points that would seem to put some more pressure on Dickens to deliver, though not necessarily if it is in the 1st or even 2nd quarter.  For what it is worth I don't see SoDup having to change their game plan too much if down by 10 early, especially since their bread n' butter this year is to pound the rock and wear down the opponent.

Maybe it is just me but in reading between the lines (not necessarily by newcardfan's post, though the question you asked implies that you don't view it as possible), I'm interpretting quite a bit of "how dare anyone suggest that SoDup will not immediately jump to a lead or win by 14+?"

Clearly SoDup is the favorite and has some strengths that on paper Wheaton has some real challenges to overcome.  Clearly most feel SoDup should or will win by at least 14 points (if not more) and my head tells me that may well be the case.  Clearly SoDup has a depth in talent that has all other CCIW teams envious.

But is SoDup so superior to a good Wheaton team that it is implausible that Wheaton can pull an upset? (nevermind that it is a huge rivalry game with nearly 100 years of history and for the Bell, with serious implications on CCIW Champion & playoffs)

Sorry... I'll go cool off and maybe I'm reading too much into it, but starting with Titan Q's expectation over the weekend that SoDup will likely roll as they did over IWU (and since IWU beat Wheaton) and throughout the week in several other posts across various other boards, it seems as if it is a foregone conclusion that SoDup is the CCIW Champ. 

Again... that seems likely to be the case.  But this is a game against two top 25 teams, with a ton on the line, and between two opponents with an intense rivalry.  For those who don't put much weight on rivalry and the impact on games, look no further than IWU vs. Millikin.  Clearly IWU has had a significant edge in talent, yet recently there has been one upset (in 2008?) and last week wasn't too far from one.

So, if I'm reading this properly, you're guaranteeing a 20+ pt win by NCC, right Mugs?

[Mugsy]

So, if I'm reading this properly, you're guaranteeing a 20+ pt win by NCC, right Mugs?

Read me like a book.  Perfect interpretation.