FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

Dang, that would have made so much more sense if the screen hadn't rolled over!

[AndOne]

So happy Mr. that my a$$crack has turned horizontal!   

[NCF]

So happy Mr. that my a$$crack has turned horizontal!   

Funniest posts in a long time Great way to start the morning.
If NC gets past the quarters-you'll have the last laugh and if they don't you can bend over and take another!

[emma17]

AndOne, I understand where you're trying to go in the 3 pt difference subject, but in your following statement you inadvertently identify exactly the issue in comparing this year's defense to last years.  "*If you want to play with numbers remember that a football team consists of 11 players and a basketball team only 5. Wenger is gone from the North Central football team, and Djurickovic from the Carthage basketball team. So, while we're at it, lets trot out some statistics pointing out Steve accounted for 20% of the Carthage basketball squad and Matt was about 9.1% of the NCC defensive unit. The argument could further be pressed that its easier to replace 9.1% than it is to replace 20%."

The reason NCC's defense was so good against GOOD/GREAT running teams last year is BECAUSE 9.1% of the team played like 18.2% of the team.  Wenger was a difference maker on the NCC D like Garcon and Shorts were difference makers on Mt's offense.  NCC may have excellent DIII caliber linebackers this year, but that's not the same as having a Wenger.  His ability was simply greater than the best DIII lineman could handle.  Can you say the same for the NCC linebackers this year?  Are you sure that a great running team like MHB, Salisbury or UWW won't have the DIII lineman to match the DIII defenders?   

I'm on record for thinking NCC is in the discussion of the upper echelon now- but they aren't a card carrying member until they beat one of them.  And beating one of them isn't the same as beating a team like many of the CCIW teams this year that have become mainly passing teams.   

[NCF]

AndOne, I understand where you're trying to go in the 3 pt difference subject, but in your following statement you inadvertently identify exactly the issue in comparing this year's defense to last years.  "*If you want to play with numbers remember that a football team consists of 11 players and a basketball team only 5. Wenger is gone from the North Central football team, and Djurickovic from the Carthage basketball team. So, while we're at it, lets trot out some statistics pointing out Steve accounted for 20% of the Carthage basketball squad and Matt was about 9.1% of the NCC defensive unit. The argument could further be pressed that its easier to replace 9.1% than it is to replace 20%."

The reason NCC's defense was so good against GOOD/GREAT running teams last year is BECAUSE 9.1% of the team played like 18.2% of the team.  Wenger was a difference maker on the NCC D like Garcon and Shorts were difference makers on Mt's offense.  NCC may have excellent DIII caliber linebackers this year, but that's not the same as having a Wenger.  His ability was simply greater than the best DIII lineman could handle.  Can you say the same for the NCC linebackers this year?  Are you sure that a great running team like MHB, Salisbury or UWW won't have the DIII lineman to match the DIII defenders?   

I'm on record for thinking NCC is in the discussion of the upper echelon now- but they aren't a card carrying member until they beat one of them.  And beating one of them isn't the same as beating a team like many of the CCIW teams this year that have become mainly passing teams.   

As soon as they play a great running team we will find out. The linebackers this year have had to drop back into pass coverage more often than not, so you really haven't seen what they are able to do. I'm sure you'll get to see what they're made of beginning next week. ALL of the defensive players this year have had to step it up to fill the gap left by Wenger's departure and the stats don't show the whole story, because as soon as the game is won, the starters come out. Many of them will play very little,if at all, this week. Noone is arguing that Wenger wasn't a beast (just ask the guy that has had to be the one to follow after him)Good/Great players graduate every year. As a team, you can lament the fact that your stud is gone or you can come up with a new game plan that will give you the same results. North Central still dominated on defense and hopefully will take the next step this season.

[New Tradition]

I'm on record for thinking NCC is in the discussion of the upper echelon now- but they aren't a card carrying member until they beat one of them.  And beating one of them isn't the same as beating a team like many of the CCIW teams this year that have become mainly passing teams.   

Well put!  This has been my thought the whole season. 

[USee]

keep in mind my original post and subsequent analysis was in answer to emma17's question. Whether a defense is better or not is subjective but there are hints in the statistics. I am no math major but I do know stats are not linear. That is, you can't just add or subtract 3 pts from each result and say "see". Ypsi, (the stats prof) posed a more appropriate question, which is based on a percentage. If you want to ask the question whether 33% makes a difference in the wins, let me ask this: If Redlands scores 33% less this season, who wins that game? Or, put another way, do the NCC faithful think they lose to Redlands with Wenger in the lineup?

Similarly, if UWW scores 33% more this year than last year, is NCC's chances of winning better or worse? None of these are absolutes, because the NCC offense has been more productive as well and teams evolve considerably over the course of a season.

[02 Warhawk]

keep in mind my original post and subsequent analysis was in answer to emma17's question. Whether a defense is better or not is subjective but there are hints in the statistics. I am no math major but I do know stats are not linear. That is, you can't just add or subtract 3 pts from each result and say "see". Ypsi, (the stats prof) posed a more appropriate question, which is based on a percentage. If you want to ask the question whether 33% makes a difference in the wins, let me ask this: If Redlands scores 33% less this season, who wins that game? Or, put another way, do the NCC faithful think they lose to Redlands with Wenger in the lineup?

Similarly, if UWW scores 33% more this year than last year, is NCC's chances of winning better or worse? None of these are absolutes, because the NCC offense has been more productive as well and teams evolve considerably over the course of a season.

If UWW scores 33% more than last year, then they would be scoring 53.466 points per game this year.....Then I would have to say NCC's chances are worse to beat UWW. 

[bleedpurple]

AndOne, I understand where you're trying to go in the 3 pt difference subject, but in your following statement you inadvertently identify exactly the issue in comparing this year's defense to last years.  "*If you want to play with numbers remember that a football team consists of 11 players and a basketball team only 5. Wenger is gone from the North Central football team, and Djurickovic from the Carthage basketball team. So, while we're at it, lets trot out some statistics pointing out Steve accounted for 20% of the Carthage basketball squad and Matt was about 9.1% of the NCC defensive unit. The argument could further be pressed that its easier to replace 9.1% than it is to replace 20%."

The reason NCC's defense was so good against GOOD/GREAT running teams last year is BECAUSE 9.1% of the team played like 18.2% of the team.  Wenger was a difference maker on the NCC D like Garcon and Shorts were difference makers on Mt's offense.  NCC may have excellent DIII caliber linebackers this year, but that's not the same as having a Wenger.  His ability was simply greater than the best DIII lineman could handle. Can you say the same for the NCC linebackers this year?  Are you sure that a great running team like MHB, Salisbury or UWW won't have the DIII lineman to match the DIII defenders?   

I'm on record for thinking NCC is in the discussion of the upper echelon now- but they aren't a card carrying member until they beat one of them.  And beating one of them isn't the same as beating a team like many of the CCIW teams this year that have become mainly passing teams.   

[/b]

Two great points made, Emma17.  First, a big part of what separates Mount and UW-W from the D3 pack is having playmakers who step up and carry the day when a game is on the line.  While any victory is an entire team effort and cannot be done without everyone performing their roles well, there is no substitute for having superior athletes that step up and make plays during "crunch time".  Wenger had that ability.  He single-handedly ruined plays against UW-W that were REALLY well set up for huge gains had he not made an incredible play.  From my observation, the score would have been much different without him. Picking apart statistics to show weaknesses in Mount or UW-W may help posters feel better about their team's chances, but it doesn't increase them.

Secondly, I think your description of NCC is spot on.  Upper Echelon? Absolutely. Third best team in the nation? Not sure.  Top two? Not until they play in the Stagg Bowl.   

[USee]

Warhawk,

I meant in that game, not over the course of a season.

[USee]

The IWU/Augie game this weekend is obviously huge. I don't understand the 2 close calls the Titans have had and if I suspect, if they play the way they did each of the last 2 weeks, they may well not survive Augie. I think a strong performance from IWU is of paramount importance, not just for their Pool C case, but for their confidence going into the playoffs.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The IWU/Augie game this weekend is obviously huge. I don't understand the 2 close calls the Titans have had and if I suspect, if they play the way they did each of the last 2 weeks, they may well not survive Augie. I think a strong performance from IWU is of paramount importance, not just for their Pool C case, but for their confidence going into the playoffs.

Agreed.  Millikin I can excuse because that rivalry can get weird (see 2009).  Carthage I can sorta understand because road games in the CCIW are rarely easy.  Both together gives me the willies.

[Gregory Sager]

Holy crap guys!
As my spousal unit, the math professor, has told me 1000 times, you can make statistics say anything you want them to.

*It seems like there are some sour grapes being harvested. Maybe a little jealousy over the fact North Central rather than your team is the likely sole CCIW champion this year?

Mark, I have to agree with Chuck that this post was not one of your better efforts. In your rush to paint this discussion about the Cardinals' 2011 defense relative to the NCC 2010 defense as an attempt by envy-riddled opposing fans to poke holes in the North Central juggernaut, you've conveniently ignored the fact that there are North Central fans on both sides of the fence in this discussion. CardinalAlum and robertgoulet have both backed USee's assertion that the current NCC defense is not quite as good as last year's Wenger-led unit.

[NCF]

Holy crap guys!
As my spousal unit, the math professor, has told me 1000 times, you can make statistics say anything you want them to.

*It seems like there are some sour grapes being harvested. Maybe a little jealousy over the fact North Central rather than your team is the likely sole CCIW champion this year?

Mark, I have to agree with Chuck that this post was not one of your better efforts. In your rush to paint this discussion about the Cardinals' 2011 defense relative to the NCC 2010 defense as an attempt by envy-riddled opposing fans to poke holes in the North Central juggernaut, you've conveniently ignored the fact that there are North Central fans on both sides of the fence in this discussion. CardinalAlum and robertgoulet have both backed USee's assertion that the current NCC defense is not quite as good as last year's Wenger-led unit.

...And the season is not over yet, so all opinions are just that, opinions. And you'd have to agree that everyone is entitled to their opinion, whether you concur with or dispute said opinion.

[Gregory Sager]

Holy crap guys!
As my spousal unit, the math professor, has told me 1000 times, you can make statistics say anything you want them to.

*It seems like there are some sour grapes being harvested. Maybe a little jealousy over the fact North Central rather than your team is the likely sole CCIW champion this year?

Mark, I have to agree with Chuck that this post was not one of your better efforts. In your rush to paint this discussion about the Cardinals' 2011 defense relative to the NCC 2010 defense as an attempt by envy-riddled opposing fans to poke holes in the North Central juggernaut, you've conveniently ignored the fact that there are North Central fans on both sides of the fence in this discussion. CardinalAlum and robertgoulet have both backed USee's assertion that the current NCC defense is not quite as good as last year's Wenger-led unit.

...And the season is not over yet, so all opinions are just that, opinions. And you'd have to agree that everyone is entitled to their opinion, whether you concur with or dispute said opinion.

IMHO, you're right.

(I have no opinion on the subject du jour, I might add. I was just pointing out that Mark's speculation that this discussion is a potshot that envious opposing fans are taking at NCC is spurious.)