FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[79jaybird]

I'll throw coach Lester a lifesaver here.

Coach Lester is a good coach and I don't think anybody will argue that.  He is a very good person and has shown the ability to land some positive recruits.

As somebody earlier pointed out, he is still a young lad of the coaching realm.  look at Swider, Eash, Rucks, and some of the long tenured coaches.  They paid their dues and took their lumps over time. Success was rare/not earned right away.  I think Lester has the Jays on the right track, but it is not going to be an easy hill to climb.

[CardinalAlum]

I am shocked to see where the Augie program is now.   My question is when and how did things get to this point?  Reade retiring?  Was it the coaches that were hired?  Lack of facilities?   Being on the receiving end of some stompings from the National Champ Augie teams, i just could never imagine it would get like this.  Selfishly, I also am hoping the beloved Cardinals do all possible to keep the program in a prominent position within the conference.  Augie6?  USee?  GS?  Mugsy?  Mr. Ypsi?  Bueller?  Anyone?  Thoughts? 

[Gregory Sager]

It can't be Bob Reade's retirement. Augie has won five CCIW titles, either outright or shared, and been to the D3 playoffs three times since Reade retired after the '94 season.

[AndOne]

Just stating what I've heard thru the grapevine from a couple of different directions here guys. Not saying anything is for certain so hold the hand gernades.
What I've heard is that Augustana has reduced its athletic budget over the past few years in order to devote a higher percentage of its recent and current fundraising, gift, and tuition income to academic and infrastructure enhancements.
Furthermore, I believe its noteworthy that the reduction in athletic funding has been just that, a reduction, as opposed to Augie slashing athletic funding by some huge percentage.

Proceeding under the the assumption that the above info is indeed correct, I did a little further research in an attempt to establish some background and substantiating information. Said research reveals at least two possible explanations for a recent decrease in athletic funding:

1. In June, 2012, Augie issued $37.6 million in Revenue Bonds. Naturally, they wanted to garner as high of a rating as possible for the issue. In conjunction with this issue, AC underwent and examination by Moody's Investors Service who found a number of future financial challenges (as well as strengths) faced by Augie. To wit:

   CHALLENGES

*Competitive student market environment and challenges associated with a regionally based recruitment pool has led to an increasing tuition discount rate, increasing almost eight percentage points since 2007 to 45.7% in FY 2011 with management expecting a further increase the discount rate in FY 2012.

*Highly dependent on student charges, which comprise almost 79% of the college's Moody's adjusted operating revenues, coupled with declining or stagnant net tuition revenue in FY 2010 and FY 2011, respectively. Net tuition is projected to grow a modest 2.2% in FY 2012.

*High age of plant of 20 years, among the highest in our rated portfolio, despite recent investment in facilities, signaling potential for additional capital investment on campus to draw and attract students; however, the college has no additional debt plans and plans to fund projects through a combination of gifts and internally generated funds.

*Fluctuations in enrollment levels for both total enrollment and first time freshmen admits have caused the college to cut expenses. Although management's ability to react through careful budgeting and contingencies is credit positive, the ability to continue reducing or holding total expenses flat is unsustainable.

*Variable rate exposure adds risk to the credit profile with 33% of the college's pro-forma debt in variable rate mode and subject to acceleration, which could cause liquidity to deteriorate faster than anticipated but is offset by the college's liquid resources and comfortable headroom to covenants.

+ The above represents one possible reason for a recent reduction on funding for athletics.

2. In 2011 Augie targeted several campus capital projects including renovation to its signature building, Old Main, the library, student center, and residence halls. The College's age of plant is very high at 19 years, which management has begun to address through fully funding depreciation.

+ Again, another possible reason for the shift away from athletic funding to the academic/infrastructure side of the balance sheet.

[CardinalAlum]

It can't be Bob Reade's retirement. Augie has won five CCIW titles, either outright or shared, and been to the D3 playoffs three times since Reade retired after the '94 season.

Yes, but under Schmalbach, I don't believe much changed from the Reade regime in terms of scheme and philosophies.  I believe the Barnes era was not what was expected in Rock Island.

[79jaybird]

Augie was still a high powered foe and we were 0-4 during my 4 years vs. them at EC.  I think the rise of programs like NC, Carthage, most recently Elmhurst, along with perennially strong IWU has made it more of a challenge to land recruits.  Plus, I think many people like to stay closer to home and lust of "going away" is not as strong as it was a long time ago. 

Offensively,  I think Augie should have stayed with the Wing-T.  That was their bread & butter attack for decades.  I questioned why they went to the spread offense.  Rival schools had been performing the Spread offense for years so their practices (defenses) were accustomed to seeing spread attacks.  The Wing-T on the other hand when executed effectively, is so hard to practice for and be sharp defensively. 

[matblake]

Offensively,  I think Augie should have stayed with the Wing-T.  That was their bread & butter attack for decades.  I questioned why they went to the spread offense.  Rival schools had been performing the Spread offense for years so their practices (defenses) were accustomed to seeing spread attacks.  The Wing-T on the other hand when executed effectively, is so hard to practice for and be sharp defensively.

I see where you're coming from jaybird, but I thought part of the problem was that finding players to fit that system was becoming more difficult because of even high school play trending away from the wing-t.  On top of that, the Wing-T is a system.  You have to be in the system to be really good.  It takes time and Augie was traditionally junior and senior laden with starters.  IMO we seem to be trending away from being patient and toward personal gain instead of gain for the team.

Offensive woes aside, where Augie has dropped off IMO is defense.  As you see from this quote:

To put that into perspective for the "whipper snappers" (who will immediately say "who cares, because that was over 25 years ago..."), the 86' Vikings defense let up 331 net rushing yards IN 12 GAMES!  That is 27.5 yards per game.  They held teams to 0.8 yards per carry and only 2 rushing TD's. 

Augie was successful because they kept you off the field, and to shorten games with the run, even though you knew it was coming. 

[Langhorst_Ghost]

I am shocked to see where the Augie program is now.   My question is when and how did things get to this point? 

Great points by AndOne and i completely agree w/ Jaybird as well - as one who took his lumps from the Vikes wearing both a helmet and a headset, i would identify these two important factors:

1. The regression to the schematic status quo.  79JB mentioned this.  Augie week was always a issue in terms of preparation.  Not only is it incredibly challenging to install the scheme and technique of the Augie downhill, power ground game with a scout team in a few days, it was nearly impossible to re-create the speed and efficiency with which the Vikes executed for so many years in a Wednesday or Thursday team practice session.  Augie had a strategic and preparation advantage each Saturday they took the field.

2. The "Jimmys and Joes" are just as important as the Xs and Os.  While Augie's sustained success across decades certainly played a big role in attracting kids out to Rock Island, much of the Vikings' recruiting success was anchored in the traditional offensive scheme.  Simply put - the Vikes had the market cornered on downhill fullbacks, powerful down-blocking offensive linemen, and the best option QBs in the state.  The Vikes are just not attracting the same dominant athletes, do partly to the "watering down" of the offense.  Augie now competes for the same kinds of kids that NCC, IWU, and every other Midwestern D3 school is after.  Not to say they did not have to compete for those recruits in the past, but Augie certainly used to have a distinct advantage with their unique scheme and a more narrow focus in terms of talent.

All that said, Augie will get back to where they were eventually.  The roster is still turning over to represent the shift in offensive philosophy, the alumni base is still strong and supportive, and the recent improvements to the stadium will help compete with the "facilities arms race" in CCIW.  For the 'Jays sake, i just hope they wait until AFTER this week. 

[79jaybird]

Right now I see two important tests for Elmhurst if they are looking for a 8 or 9 win season.
North Central L  Not the score or performance desired
Wheaton
IWU
So far Elmhurst is 0 for 1 in their kool-aid laden pursuit of recognization.  IWU's defense and the overall versatility of Wheaton is going to be really challenging for the Jays.  Yes, it is an advantage to have these both at home. 

Ironically,  beating Augie was always a "miracle if it were to happen" a few years back, but this week, I don't see why Elmhurst doesn't win this game by 2 TD's.  This is not your Dad's or Granddad's Augie team.

[New Tradition]

This is not your Dad's or Granddad's Augie team.

Or even your older brother's.   

[Gregory Sager]

It can't be Bob Reade's retirement. Augie has won five CCIW titles, either outright or shared, and been to the D3 playoffs three times since Reade retired after the '94 season.

Yes, but under Schmalbach, I don't believe much changed from the Reade regime in terms of scheme and philosophies.  I believe the Barnes era was not what was expected in Rock Island.

Barnes won three CCIW titles in his eleven years as the Augie head coach. And his winning percentage in CCIW play was better than Schmulbach's (.727 to .714). If the Barnes era was not what was expected in Rock Island, perhaps the problem had more to do with the expectations than with the coach.

Offensively,  I think Augie should have stayed with the Wing-T.  That was their bread & butter attack for decades.  I questioned why they went to the spread offense.  Rival schools had been performing the Spread offense for years so their practices (defenses) were accustomed to seeing spread attacks.  The Wing-T on the other hand when executed effectively, is so hard to practice for and be sharp defensively.

I see where you're coming from jaybird, but I thought part of the problem was that finding players to fit that system was becoming more difficult because of even high school play trending away from the wing-t.  On top of that, the Wing-T is a system.  You have to be in the system to be really good.  It takes time and Augie was traditionally junior and senior laden with starters.  IMO we seem to be trending away from being patient and toward personal gain instead of gain for the team.

These are both great points that you've made, MB, and they're interrelated. Learning a new offensive system takes time if you're an 18- or 19-year-old, and it may also require that you develop new attributes in order to succeed in that system (e.g., pass-catching ability, or added bulk, or defense-reading skills). The idea of a steep learning curve to learn a new offensive system might cause a kid to shy away from a certain school, because he knows that he might not see the field within his first couple of years there no matter how talented he is. Also, most human beings tend to find comfort in the familiar, and therefore the idea of having to learn an unfamiliar offense in college puts off a lot of high school seniors.

I think that you've hit upon the real reason why Augie went away from the Wing-T, MB.  A lot of the art of recruiting players on the offensive side of the ball is contingent upon what sorts of offenses the high school programs that form the school's recruiting base are playing. As you said, the Wing-T is a dying breed among high school programs, which means that Augie would've had more and more of its offensive recruits being forced to negotiate that steep learning curve if the Doggies had stuck with the Wing-T -- and, also, Augie probably would've lost out on more and more prospects who view the Wing-T as a dinosaur offense in a video-game era in which kids view the forward pass as the most exciting -- and most basic -- aspect of football.

(NPU is trying to implement the philosophy of recruiting to its offense by attracting a new recruiting base in terms of offensive players. While the Wing-T is a thing of the past in high school football, the various permutations of the triple option traditionally used by the service academies are alive and well and are widespread on the high school level -- including the Air Force flexbone option that NPU uses -- especially among smaller high schools that lack a large pool of boys who have offensive-lineman size.)

I think that that's why Augie went away from the Wing-T. Of course, Langhorst Ghost is right about the fact that, by going to a commonly-used offense, Augie is now in the position of having to compete with its CCIW peers for players under a more or less common frame of reference as far as offenses are concerned. It's a lot harder to be the best spread offense among midwestern D3s than it is to be the best Wing-T offense among midwestern D3, and if somebody else in your league is doing it better than you, you're probably going to lose out to that other school on the recruiting trail.

(Not to keep going back to NPU, but this is a major reason why Scott Pethtel went to the flexbone option. It means that he's not recruiting the same offensive prospects as are his CCIW competitors -- and a lot of kids who play for triple-option high school teams actually like the triple option and wouldn't mind playing it at the college level. Again, it's that comfort-in-the-familiar thing.)

I don't necessarily agree with this, though:

All that said, Augie will get back to where they were eventually.

If you mean that Augie's going to go back to winning national championships the way that it did in the '80s -- becoming an honorary Purple school, in other words -- I think you're way off base. I just don't see that happening. Heck, North Central's built a dynasty in the CCIW that's beginning to come close to what Augie had during the Reagan administration in terms of extended dominance, and NCC still hasn't gotten even so much as a taste of the Final Four, let alone the Stagg Bowl.

If you mean that the Doggies can get back to where they were under Schmulbach and Barnes -- in other words, a top-tier but certainly not dominant CCIW program that generally wins about three out of every four league games and garners a CCIW title every four or five seasons -- then I think that that's certainly within the realm of possibility. But it's hardly a given.

[iwu70]

I agree with Greg on Augie's likely prospects of returning to respectability and to some years of possible top-tier CCIW play in football in future.  Until we see some change in the normal outcomes of recent years, still appears to me that NCC, IWU and WC are the pick of the litter just now.  I personally think NP has a good chance to beating Augie this season. 

IWU will have to continue to develop and improve, avoid key injuries etc. . . . in the next two weekends, to really give NCC and WC a good run for their money in subsequent weeks.  MU put up alot of yards on the Titans this past weekend, and IWU was fortunate to escape with the OT win.  Most here in B/N are still wondering why the MU coach called the fade pass route into the corner of the end zone for the second of the 2 pt. tries to win the game.   MU's big back, Dunning, was banging on the Titans pretty well throughout the evening, and only had one yard to gain to convert the 2 pt. try and win the game for Millikin, 35-34, but instead it ended for the Titans, 34-33.  Bolden made a good defensive play on the pass/fade route, but most here are still second-guessing the play call.

Of course, IWU's goal is always a CCIW crown, though 9-1 will likely get the Titans into post-season play again, as last year.

IWU70 

[Gregory Sager]

I personally think NP has a good chance to beating Augie this season.

NPU needs to worry about surviving the next two weeks before the Vikings can even start to think about Augie. Not only is it a psychological blow to lose big -- and, at least on paper, NPU stands to lose by even bigger scores to Wesleyan and North Central than it did to Carthage -- but those types of games can produce heavy casualties in terms of injuries. And NPU is going to need all hands on deck to beat the Doggies when they do finally get around to playing them on October 21.

[New Tradition]

I personally think NP has a good chance to beating Augie this season.

NPU needs to worry about surviving the next two weeks before the Vikings can even start to think about Augie. Not only is it a psychological blow to lose big -- and, at least on paper, NPU stands to lose by even bigger scores to Wesleyan and North Central than it did to Carthage -- but those types of games can produce heavy casualties in terms of injuries. And NPU is going to need all hands on deck to beat the Doggies when they do finally get around to playing them on October 21.

Wouldn't that be something?  For NPU's first CCIW win in over a decade to come against Augustana?  I realize that a lot of things need to happen in order for that to occur, but if you had told me 6-7 years ago that we'd even be DISCUSSING this on these boards, I'd have called you crazy!  Football is such a fun game.

[NCF]

I personally think NP has a good chance to beating Augie this season.

NPU needs to worry about surviving the next two weeks before the Vikings can even start to think about Augie. Not only is it a psychological blow to lose big -- and, at least on paper, NPU stands to lose by even bigger scores to Wesleyan and North Central than it did to Carthage -- but those types of games can produce heavy casualties in terms of injuries. And NPU is going to need all hands on deck to beat the Doggies when they do finally get around to playing them on October 21.

Wouldn't that be something?  For NPU's first CCIW win in over a decade to come against Augustana?  I realize that a lot of things need to happen in order for that to occur, but if you had told me 6-7 years ago that we'd even be DISCUSSING this on these boards, I'd have called you crazy!  Football is such a fun game.

That would be crazy, but they are going to get that win eventually.