FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[79jaybird]

Cardinaldad- Ah, let me clarify    I feel bad for the kids who play their hearts out and (for whatever reason) find a way to lose a game they should have won.  By all accounts, Augie should have picked up a road W at our house last Saturday.  You are correct in that I don't feel bad for Augie the school,  b/c they do have plenty of hardware and achievements already.  I will say it is nice to see other schools (besides Augie or IWU) getting stronger and winning more than losing.

[USee]

fair enough. Hopefully you don't trust your son's opinion more than his coaches or his teachers. Or I should say hopefully his coaches don't!  The fact remains 1.5-3pts is the home field advantage. NCC lost by 1. To quote a recent debate on TV, "...it's math". 

I'm curious about the details of that science. I've heard it too but wonder what exactly was contemplated. Last regular season losses got Mt and UWW were at home. Granted they are small parts of I assume a big data pool.

There are plenty of studies you can google if you are really that curious. But let's look at the facts for NCC. They have actually ended their season with a home playoff loss in 3 of the last 6 years. But their overall playoff record is 6-6. They are 5-3 at home and 1-3 on the road in the playoffs. Their lone win was a buzzer beater @Franklin in the 2007 season (who can forget Fanthorpe to Llavac!---they lost the next week @UWW). So it would seem NCC's own playoff record indicates they are better at home than on the road.

But let's not stop there. Let's look at the Thunder. Since 2002 their overall playoff record is 9-6. They are 5-1 at home and 4-5 on the road. All 5 road losses were to the same team 

I think it's pretty clear home field advantage has something to do with performance. The statistics (which Ypsi is a master at) don't really lie. I think you can look across the country and find similar stats. There are the outliers, but by and large the home team wins more often. There is science to it but I prefer the softer side.......

[Gregory Sager]

I hope they at least show something against ncc since last year they lost 35-0 which I'm sure was most 2nd string, probably will be the same this year bust last year we had possession 37:57 to 22:00.

Time of possession is a meaningless statistic. Put it out of your mind. Yes, NPU keeps the ball for a long time, because that's what an option offense (i.e., a run-dominated offense) will do. But if you can't score, what good is time of possession? And if you can't stop the other team from scoring, what good is time of possession? There's no point to looking for moral victories where none exist.

Gregory I realize your post is specific to NPU but you mentioned the subject of Time of Possession.  The importance of winning the TOP battle has definately taken a hit in recent years- especially due to the many high potent offenses out there.  I do believe that TOP is a very important quality for the right type of team- one with a strong defense and a less than potent offense.  Some recent examples come to mind of teams that would have greatly benefitted from extending their time of possession: Concordia Moorhead v Bethel, NCC v Wabash, UWW v Buffalo State.

I'm well aware of the importance of TOP. Seeing as how NPU runs an option offense, TOP is a key aspect of what the Vikings are trying to do every Saturday. You keep the defense of your opponents on the field for most of the game, wearing them down, and try to exploit their fatigue late in the game.

As you mentioned, my post was specific to NPU. The Vikings have only scored one offensive touchdown in the two CCIW games they've played thus far. The offense can't finish, even when field position is in its favor. And it's not accomplishing anything towards establishing that field position, either; NPU has only had three drives of 40 or more yards thus far in CCIW play, all of which came in the Carthage game and only one of which led to points. And that came on a garbage-time TD against Carthage's reserves.

Meanwhile, NPU's two CCIW opponents have scored touchdowns so quickly that they've made the whole TOP matter moot. Carthage took 1:32, 2:03, 0:16, and 1:38 to score its four TDs against the Park. Wesleyan was a bit more deliberate; the Titans required 1:29, 1:57, 4:55, 5:34, 3:18, and 0:06 to score its six TDs against NPU. Those ten touchdowns scored against NPU the past two weeks took an average of a mere 2:25 off the clock.

As I said, the combination of an offense that can't score and a defense that can't prevent scores renders TOP an irrelevant statistic. I don't want to see NPU fans such as newparker take any false pride in North Park winning TOP, unless it actually proves to be a positive corollary to the big numbers on the scoreboard.

[Gregory Sager]

I would like to think that Thorne doesn't run up the score in this game.

We'll see. NPU is completely at his mercy, and that sucks in more ways than I can count.

?

Must you force me to spell it out for you, NCF? The final score will be dictated by how long Thorne decides to keep in his starters, and by whether or not he suits up and plays his players who currently have even the most minor of injuries. ILGator outlined a reasonable scenario:

I think that NCC will do what they formerly did to BU and did last year at NPU. They'll sit out a few players with injuries. They'll try to open up a comfortable lead by halftime. Then, they'll get game experience for for the younger players, some of whom may need to play important roles against IWU and Wheaton.

But the point is that Thorne doesn't have to do it that way. Or, conversely, he can play it strictly by that particular book and make halftime his cutoff point for subbing in reserves and sitting the starters, regardless of score. That's what happened in the infamous game three years ago that NCC won, 83-7. Thorne kept in his starters all the way to halftime, at which point the score was 55-0. I'm not saying that he deliberately ran up the score -- NCC only threw one pass in the second half, and Thorne used 87 players in the game -- but his decision to leave in the starters until halftime was what tipped a normal, run-of-the-mill rout into a quintuple monkey stomp, or whatever the d3boards.com football mavens call a 76-point margin of victory.

(Incidentally, I'm not thrilled with this topic of conversation. I think you can understand why. No offense, but I'd like to change the subject. I'd rather discuss whether USee is indeed the real board guru or if he's simply passing along football tips he's picked up from his transvestite uncle. )

[NCF]

I would like to think that Thorne doesn't run up the score in this game.

We'll see. NPU is completely at his mercy, and that sucks in more ways than I can count.

?

Must you force me to spell it out for you, NCF? The final score will be dictated by how long Thorne decides to keep in his starters, and by whether or not he suits up and plays his players who currently have even the most minor of injuries. ILGator outlined a reasonable scenario:

I think that NCC will do what they formerly did to BU and did last year at NPU. They'll sit out a few players with injuries. They'll try to open up a comfortable lead by halftime. Then, they'll get game experience for for the younger players, some of whom may need to play important roles against IWU and Wheaton.

But the point is that Thorne doesn't have to do it that way. Or, conversely, he can play it strictly by that particular book and make halftime his cutoff point for subbing in reserves and sitting the starters, regardless of score. That's what happened in the infamous game three years ago that NCC won, 83-7. Thorne kept in his starters all the way to halftime, at which point the score was 55-0. I'm not saying that he deliberately ran up the score -- NCC only threw one pass in the second half, and Thorne used 87 players in the game -- but his decision to leave in the starters until halftime was what tipped a normal, run-of-the-mill rout into a quintuple monkey stomp, or whatever the d3boards.com football mavens call a 76-point margin of victory.

(Incidentally, I'm not thrilled with this topic of conversation. I think you can understand why. No offense, but I'd like to change the subject. I'd rather discuss whether USee is indeed the real board guru or if he's simply passing along football tips he's picked up from his transvestite uncle. )

The last sentence is funny, the first paragraph, not so much. Subject closed.

[CardinalAlum]

but you lost by 4 pts......at home? You don't get a mulligan. Are you arguing with science again? If my uncle wore a dress he'd be my Aunt.....

Or Mugsy..... 

[Mugsy]

"Tale of the Tape" - Wheaton vs. Elmhurst

Records:
   Wheaton:        4-1, 2-0
   Elmhurst:         4-1, 1-1

Statistical Category	Wheaton	Elmhurst	Comment
Offense Scoring	43.0	28.2
Defense Scoring	10.6	16.8	Wheaton #7 nationally
Off Pass Efficiency	171.6	121.2
Off Pass Completion %	68.9	53.6
Off Pass YPG	294.8	158.4
Off Pass TD's	20	4
Off INT's	4	2
Def Pass Efficiency	78.7	112.0	Wheaton #4 nationally
Def Pass Completion %	45.9	52.7	Wheaton #1 in CCIW, Elmhurst #2
Def Pass YPG	115.8	133.2	Wheaton #5 nationally, Elmhurst #14 nationally
Pass TD's Allowed	3	4
Def INT's	5	7
Kick Return Ave	26.9	18.5
Punt Return Ave	4.6	7.9
Punting	41.8	35.7	Wheaton 12 punts, Elmhurst 18
Turnover Margin	+1	+10
Off Rush YPG	167.0	232.4	Elmhurst #28 nationally
Off Yards Per Carry	4.3	5.1
Off Rush TD's	7	13
Def Rush YPG	100.8	211.4	Wheaton #1 in CCIW, Elmhurst #8
Def Yards Per Carry	2.8	5.4	Wheaton #1 in CCIW, Elmhurst #8
Def Rush TD's Allowed	4	7
Total Offense	461.8	390.8
Total Defense	216.6	344.6	Wheaton #4 nationally
Sacks By	15	5
Sacks Allowed	15	8	Wheaton: 177 pass attempts, Elmhurst: 112
1st Downs	128	106
1st Downs Allowed	70	81
Penalty YPG	48.6	49.8
Red Zone Offense	78.6	85.0	Wheaton 19 TDs, 3 FG's : Elmhurst 13 TDs, 4 FG's
Red Zone Defense	60.0	69.2
Off 3rd Down Conv %	52.4	45.3
Opp 3rd Down Conv %	18.9	50.0	Wheaton #3 in the nation, Elmhurst last in the CCIW
Field Goals	4 of 8	6 of 9
PAT's	27 of 28	13 of 17
Time of Pos	30:54	31:18

Other observations from CCIW play only:
1.   Scoring defense: Wheaton 8.5, Elmhurst 35.5
2.   Wheaton passing offense 389.5 yards per game
3.   Wheaton pass defense, 89 yards per game, 34.5%
4.   Rushing offense: Elmhurst 145.5, which is significantly down from non-conference levels
5.   Rushing defense: Wheaton 108.5, Elmhurst 302.5 (7.3 yards per carry)
6.   Total offense: Wheaton 561.5, Elmhurst 321.0
7.   Total defense: Wheaton 199.0, Elmhurst 490.5
8.   Opp. 3rd Down Conversions: Wheaton 3.6% (1 of 28), Elmhurst 48%
9.   Scottie Williams: 117.5 yards rushing per game vs. 193 per game in non-conference

[Mugsy]

but you lost by 4 pts......at home? You don't get a mulligan. Are you arguing with science again? If my uncle wore a dress he'd be my Aunt.....

Or Mugsy..... 

Lol!  Wow... had to wait until the 6th week of the season to catch a zinger from CardinalAlum.  You're getting soft.

[emma17]

fair enough. Hopefully you don't trust your son's opinion more than his coaches or his teachers. Or I should say hopefully his coaches don't!  The fact remains 1.5-3pts is the home field advantage. NCC lost by 1. To quote a recent debate on TV, "...it's math". 

I'm curious about the details of that science. I've heard it too but wonder what exactly was contemplated. Last regular season losses got Mt and UWW were at home. Granted they are small parts of I assume a big data pool.

There are plenty of studies you can google if you are really that curious. But let's look at the facts for NCC. They have actually ended their season with a home playoff loss in 3 of the last 6 years. But their overall playoff record is 6-6. They are 5-3 at home and 1-3 on the road in the playoffs. Their lone win was a buzzer beater @Franklin in the 2007 season (who can forget Fanthorpe to Llavac!---they lost the next week @UWW). So it would seem NCC's own playoff record indicates they are better at home than on the road.

But let's not stop there. Let's look at the Thunder. Since 2002 their overall playoff record is 9-6. They are 5-1 at home and 4-5 on the road. All 5 road losses were to the same team 

I think it's pretty clear home field advantage has something to do with performance. The statistics (which Ypsi is a master at) don't really lie. I think you can look across the country and find similar stats. There are the outliers, but by and large the home team wins more often. There is science to it but I prefer the softer side.......

Like I said I've heard the theory. I simply don't know the details of the study and thought maybe you did. I don't consider your playoff stats as proof of the validity of the study for D3 football. I assume Wheaton lost all of their road games to Mt- the higher seeded team not (not because they had homefield advantage). Big time college ball like LSU and the pros have the advantage of the home crowd that can impact the game. I don't see the same advantage at a D3 stadium for the most part.
I am curious whether this 1.5-3 point advantage applies equally to a D3 venue.

[nccfac]

Like I said I've heard the theory. I simply don't know the details of the study and thought maybe you did. I don't consider your playoff stats as proof of the validity of the study for D3 football. I assume Wheaton lost all of their road games to Mt- the higher seeded team not (not because they had homefield advantage). Big time college ball like LSU and the pros have the advantage of the home crowd that can impact the game. I don't see the same advantage at a D3 stadium for the most part.
I am curious whether this 1.5-3 point advantage applies equally to a D3 venue.

Emma, I have estimated using the data from all D3 games this year (up till this last weekend) from Massey's web site. If you look at Massey's ratings they have a Home Field Advantage (HFA) calculated for all DIII teams. It is calculated from the average simulation score to the actual score. What you find is that teams perform better than expected at home for D3 teams, just as pros or division I teams. They give the data for 241 D3 teams and the mean value is 2.4 points better at home on average than when they are on the road. The 95% confidence level is 2.15 to 2.65 for this year at week 5 for most teams. This is just an estimate and is not exact but it is definitely positive and different from zero. Teams perform better at home. Bookies know this very well, hence the usual 3 point difference for playing at home for professionals or division I football. It holds for all teams but not necessarily at 3.0, there is a range of outcomes and that is why I presented a confidence interval. Different years will give you different confidence intervals and the 1.5 to 3.0 reflects the extremes you might see in D3 football. It is a real effect and the data analyzed for any year will show the strong positive effect of playing at home.

There is no place like home, there is no place like home! (Dorothy, Wizard of Oz)

[NCF]

but you lost by 4 pts......at home? You don't get a mulligan. Are you arguing with science again? If my uncle wore a dress he'd be my Aunt.....

Or Mugsy..... 

Lol!  Wow... had to wait until the 6th week of the season to catch a zinger from CardinalAlum.  You're getting soft.

...or just saving it all for Wheatie week

[USee]

Like I said I've heard the theory. I simply don't know the details of the study and thought maybe you did. I don't consider your playoff stats as proof of the validity of the study for D3 football. I assume Wheaton lost all of their road games to Mt- the higher seeded team not (not because they had homefield advantage). Big time college ball like LSU and the pros have the advantage of the home crowd that can impact the game. I don't see the same advantage at a D3 stadium for the most part.
I am curious whether this 1.5-3 point advantage applies equally to a D3 venue.

Emma, I have estimated using the data from all D3 games this year (up till this last weekend) from Massey's web site. If you look at Massey's ratings they have a Home Field Advantage (HFA) calculated for all DIII teams. It is calculated from the average simulation score to the actual score. What you find is that teams perform better than expected at home for D3 teams, just as pros or division I teams. They give the data for 241 D3 teams and the mean value is 2.4 points better at home on average than when they are on the road. The 95% confidence level is 2.15 to 2.65 for this year at week 5 for most teams. This is just an estimate and is not exact but it is definitely positive and different from zero. Teams perform better at home. Bookies know this very well, hence the usual 3 point difference for playing at home for professionals or division I football. It holds for all teams but not necessarily at 3.0, there is a range of outcomes and that is why I presented a confidence interval. Different years will give you different confidence intervals and the 1.5 to 3.0 reflects the extremes you might see in D3 football. It is a real effect and the data analyzed for any year will show the strong positive effect of playing at home.

There is no place like home, there is no place like home! (Dorothy, Wizard of Oz)

Emma,

What he said!

There are lots of other factors for this data than crowd size. Familiarity with surroundings and routine are big parts of the data behind these findings.  Sleeping in your own bed, getting dressed At your own locker, eating in a familiar dining hall, all these and more allow a layer to focus his energy on the game and his mental preparation.  When you are on the road, all of those things are new information and therefore distractions.  The sum total is quantified as an effect of 1.5-3 pts.  It's not my idea its the facts.. Those Vegas book makers didn't build those buildings with all those lights and fountains by being wrong all the time.  This isn't an idea I got from watching Wheaton lose 6 times at Mt Union.  It's in the data. 

[matblake]

This isn't an idea I got from watching Wheaton lose 6 times at Mt Union.

Ugh! Each time that I see that stat, not so happy.  Truth hurts sometimes, but props to the Raiders for continuing to get it done.

[ncc_fan]

Like I said I've heard the theory. I simply don't know the details of the study and thought maybe you did. I don't consider your playoff stats as proof of the validity of the study for D3 football. I assume Wheaton lost all of their road games to Mt- the higher seeded team not (not because they had homefield advantage). Big time college ball like LSU and the pros have the advantage of the home crowd that can impact the game. I don't see the same advantage at a D3 stadium for the most part.
I am curious whether this 1.5-3 point advantage applies equally to a D3 venue.

Emma, I have estimated using the data from all D3 games this year (up till this last weekend) from Massey's web site. If you look at Massey's ratings they have a Home Field Advantage (HFA) calculated for all DIII teams. It is calculated from the average simulation score to the actual score. What you find is that teams perform better than expected at home for D3 teams, just as pros or division I teams. They give the data for 241 D3 teams and the mean value is 2.4 points better at home on average than when they are on the road. The 95% confidence level is 2.15 to 2.65 for this year at week 5 for most teams. This is just an estimate and is not exact but it is definitely positive and different from zero. Teams perform better at home. Bookies know this very well, hence the usual 3 point difference for playing at home for professionals or division I football. It holds for all teams but not necessarily at 3.0, there is a range of outcomes and that is why I presented a confidence interval. Different years will give you different confidence intervals and the 1.5 to 3.0 reflects the extremes you might see in D3 football. It is a real effect and the data analyzed for any year will show the strong positive effect of playing at home.

There is no place like home, there is no place like home! (Dorothy, Wizard of Oz)

What's the 95% confidence range if you remove the NESCAC teams from Massey's data?  Their crazy HFA numbers skew the stats. 

[Langhorst_Ghost]

I feel bad for the kids who play their hearts out and (for whatever reason) find a way to lose a game they should have won.  By all accounts, Augie should have picked up a road W at our house last Saturday.  You are correct in that I don't feel bad for Augie the school,  b/c they do have plenty of hardware and achievements already.

79JB, while i do echo your clarified response with regard to Augie's missed opportunity Saturday, i would in fact reinforce that position and take a more firm stance - You'll get ZERO sympathy from me for a program that dominated the 'Jays for 60 YEARS - and no, 3 victories in a row does not make up for 3 straight decades of losses, but i have to admit, it definitely feels satisfying to start to exorcise at least some of the demons of Augie/EC past (still got half a century to go to even the score).

"Should have" picked up a win is definitely a subjective view - certainly the Rock Island faithful would favor this perspective.  Look - Augie played well, in fact - they reincarnated visions of the Vikings of old with 300+ rushing yards and the retro-Augie veer option attack, but EC did enough to win...more yards, more first downs, more takeaways, more T.O.P., and most importantly, more points.  Augie had their chances on the field and did not get it done...Elmhurst did - i will float the Birds a little credit for earning the victory with their backs against the wall.  'Jays didn't play their best game, but they played their best when they needed it - i'll take the glass is half full side of the discussion (big surprise ).

I thought going in that the Augie game had some potential for drama (both teams coming off disappointing efforts in CCIW week one and Augie salty from last year's ending) but it was very encouraging to see EC get over the NCC hangover, and an emotional last minute rally - which can serve to galvanize the 'Jays moving forward.  Would i rather they had put up 50 and shut out the Vikes?  Of course.  But this is the CCIW, and "cruise control Saturdays" are hard to come by.  A win is a win, and the 'Jays can harness that positive energy moving forward.

Looking forward to Wheaton week - 'Jays have played the Thunder tough at Langhorst in recent years (McCully's been a different story) - although i can't say I'm all that fired up about Mugsy's numbers  ...but hey, stats are just stats - no time like Saturday to get the EC ship steered back on course!