FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[ncc58]

I would like to think that Thorne doesn't run up the score in this game.

We'll see. NPU is completely at his mercy, and that sucks in more ways than I can count.

?

Must you force me to spell it out for you, NCF? The final score will be dictated by how long Thorne decides to keep in his starters, and by whether or not he suits up and plays his players who currently have even the most minor of injuries. ILGator outlined a reasonable scenario:

I think that NCC will do what they formerly did to BU and did last year at NPU. They'll sit out a few players with injuries. They'll try to open up a comfortable lead by halftime. Then, they'll get game experience for for the younger players, some of whom may need to play important roles against IWU and Wheaton.

But the point is that Thorne doesn't have to do it that way. Or, conversely, he can play it strictly by that particular book and make halftime his cutoff point for subbing in reserves and sitting the starters, regardless of score. That's what happened in the infamous game three years ago that NCC won, 83-7. Thorne kept in his starters all the way to halftime, at which point the score was 55-0. I'm not saying that he deliberately ran up the score -- NCC only threw one pass in the second half, and Thorne used 87 players in the game -- but his decision to leave in the starters until halftime was what tipped a normal, run-of-the-mill rout into a quintuple monkey stomp, or whatever the d3boards.com football mavens call a 76-point margin of victory.

(Incidentally, I'm not thrilled with this topic of conversation. I think you can understand why. No offense, but I'd like to change the subject. I'd rather discuss whether USee is indeed the real board guru or if he's simply passing along football tips he's picked up from his transvestite uncle. )

Thorne may keep the starters, or some of the starters, in the game until halftime. But the objective isn't to see how badly NCC can beat NPU. The objective is to run the table, win the CCIW conference title again, and return to the playoffs. Nothing is gained by beating NPU by 76 points again, although I think the margin will be greater than the 36.5 point margin that Usee has established.

Do you know which game Usee's transvestite uncle will be attending this week, if he is indeed the real expert on this board?

[ncc58]

Emma,

What he said!

There are lots of other factors for this data than crowd size. Familiarity with surroundings and routine are big parts of the data behind these findings.  Sleeping in your own bed, getting dressed At your own locker, eating in a familiar dining hall, all these and more allow a layer to focus his energy on the game and his mental preparation.  When you are on the road, all of those things are new information and therefore distractions.  The sum total is quantified as an effect of 1.5-3 pts.  It's not my idea its the facts.. Those Vegas book makers didn't build those buildings with all those lights and fountains by being wrong all the time.  This isn't an idea I got from watching Wheaton lose 6 times at Mt Union.  It's in the data.

I agree with Usee. However, I think the HFA for conference games is at the lower end, and is greater for non-conference and especially playoff games. For conference games, your program is familiar with your opponents facilities and the area. Where to stay, where to eat, where to practice, where to have meetings is likely the same. The coaching staff is familiar with any nuances of the stadium (grass/turf, orientation, location of scoreboard/pressbox, etc.). Juniors and Seniors have likely been there before.

Emma, you have to admit that the first time players go to the Perk, it has to be overwhelming. For most schools, UWW is a larger campus, a larger stadium, and a larger scoreboard. It has to take them a few "minutes" to adjust. When I attend a game at UWW, there's a completely different feeling than a game at NCC or Wheaton. It could be the same of the stands, the attitude of the fans, or the championship banners that can't be missed.

[79jaybird]

L-Ghost- We'll have to disagree on this one, because I feel the final result would have been different if Augie doesn't get flagged. I agree Elmhurst played well after the N-Ville drubbing.  As a former player yourself, I know you know how it feels to give 110% of your heart and hustle, only to wind up with an L. I have lived through some hard luck games on the fb field and hockey rink too. As a hockey goalie, it hurts a little more b/c you're the last line of defense with the puck coming at you. 

Here is the stat I look at the most.  Wheaton #3 in the nation, Elmhurst last in the CCIW

Elmhurst is going be faced with many 3rd downs and will NEED TO convert to stay in the game.

Looking forward to Saturday and hope the rain tapers off for the Alumni.

[emma17]

Like I said I've heard the theory. I simply don't know the details of the study and thought maybe you did. I don't consider your playoff stats as proof of the validity of the study for D3 football. I assume Wheaton lost all of their road games to Mt- the higher seeded team not (not because they had homefield advantage). Big time college ball like LSU and the pros have the advantage of the home crowd that can impact the game. I don't see the same advantage at a D3 stadium for the most part.
I am curious whether this 1.5-3 point advantage applies equally to a D3 venue.

Emma, I have estimated using the data from all D3 games this year (up till this last weekend) from Massey's web site. If you look at Massey's ratings they have a Home Field Advantage (HFA) calculated for all DIII teams. It is calculated from the average simulation score to the actual score. What you find is that teams perform better than expected at home for D3 teams, just as pros or division I teams. They give the data for 241 D3 teams and the mean value is 2.4 points better at home on average than when they are on the road. The 95% confidence level is 2.15 to 2.65 for this year at week 5 for most teams. This is just an estimate and is not exact but it is definitely positive and different from zero. Teams perform better at home. Bookies know this very well, hence the usual 3 point difference for playing at home for professionals or division I football. It holds for all teams but not necessarily at 3.0, there is a range of outcomes and that is why I presented a confidence interval. Different years will give you different confidence intervals and the 1.5 to 3.0 reflects the extremes you might see in D3 football. It is a real effect and the data analyzed for any year will show the strong positive effect of playing at home.

There is no place like home, there is no place like home! (Dorothy, Wizard of Oz)

Emma,

What he said!

There are lots of other factors for this data than crowd size. Familiarity with surroundings and routine are big parts of the data behind these findings.  Sleeping in your own bed, getting dressed At your own locker, eating in a familiar dining hall, all these and more allow a layer to focus his energy on the game and his mental preparation.  When you are on the road, all of those things are new information and therefore distractions.  The sum total is quantified as an effect of 1.5-3 pts.  It's not my idea its the facts.. Those Vegas book makers didn't build those buildings with all those lights and fountains by being wrong all the time.  This isn't an idea I got from watching Wheaton lose 6 times at Mt Union.  It's in the data.

Usee I'd shut up if you didn't keep egging me on.  I know why Vegas has big buildings- Me!  But really, the size of Vegas's buildings have nothing to do with D3 football. 

nccfac- thanks for the detailed response and you too Usee and Gator.  The travel/comfort in the surroundings points have validity.  For instance, I heard the UW River Falls administration refused to let the football team leave for UWW Friday night.  They had to leave Saturday morning at 5:30 and drive 5-6 hours to play the game.  Advantage home team for sure.  Conversely, it seems some/most of you have played, so you know it's not like there aren't distractions on Friday night before a Saturday game when you're home.  There is something to be said for getting the team away from it all.

Anyway, I'll accept the Massey data and move on. 

[Gregory Sager]

79JB, while i do echo your clarified response with regard to Augie's missed opportunity Saturday, i would in fact reinforce that position and take a more firm stance - You'll get ZERO sympathy from me for a program that dominated the 'Jays for 60 YEARS - and no, 3 victories in a row does not make up for 3 straight decades of losses, but i have to admit, it definitely feels satisfying to start to exorcise at least some of the demons of Augie/EC past (still got half a century to go to even the score).

This can be given a broader focus. Not only was Augustana the kingpin of CCIW football for many years, and not only did it beat up Elmhurst (among others) for decades with regularity, but Augie was also the dominant school across the board in CCIW sports for many, many years. Perhaps Augie wasn't quite as dominant as Wheaton was in the late '50s (before the rest of the league told Wheaton to take a hike and go pick on somebody their own size), but Augie came pretty close at times, particularly in the '70s, '80s, and '90s. The joke around the league was that the CCIW would never bother creating an all-sports trophy, because Augie wouldn't have room on campus to store them all as they accumulated them year after year.

That's changed. As Augie6 and others have outlined, Augustana sports as a whole has been on the decline over the past decade. The school is still strong in several sports (men's basketball comes to mind), but our friends in Rock Island not only do not dominate the league anymore, it's evident that they actually trail some of the other CCIW schools in terms of across-the-board athletic competence.

It isn't just Elmhurst that's enjoying a bit of schadenfreude at the eclipse of Augie football. A lot of people in this conference have long memories, and it's not just football fans of whom I speak. There aren't a lot of tears being shed for Augie outside of Rock Island. I don't think it's that most people ever viewed Augustana as particularly evil or as gloaters or cheaters or anything of that nature. People just like to see Goliath fall, especially when Goliath had his foot on your neck for thirty years or so.

[Gregory Sager]

Do you know which game Usee's transvestite uncle will be attending this week, if he is indeed the real expert on this board?

USee's the one who keeps tabs on his uncle, not me. Since I don't know what USee looks like, I wouldn't know it if someone who looked like him was wearing a dress.

[79jaybird]

Hey hey, I didn't mean to start a fire here... I was just saying for the athletes on the field, losing in dramatic fashion is a tough pill to swallow. I have no warm fuzzy feelings to Augie FB.  I have some friends on the Athletic Staff there, but that is moreso from the radio interraction as opposed to the field of play.  Greg- Don't forget about Augie Wrestling that was dominated for years. 

Every sport seems to have their historic domination
Soccer-Wheaton
BBall-IWU
FB Augie
VB- Elmhurst
TrackCC NC
etc.

[Gregory Sager]

Greg- Don't forget about Augie Wrestling that was dominated for years.

You mean "dominating", not "dominated". Augustana won 37 CCIW wrestling titles within a 42-year period from 1963 through 2004. Nobody dominated Augie.

I wasn't talking about any CCIW sports in particular when I discussed Augustana's across-the-board dominance, 79JB. But, since you've brought it up:

Every sport seems to have their historic domination
Soccer-Wheaton
BBall-IWU
FB Augie
VB- Elmhurst
TrackCC NC
etc.

I would say that these examples are not necessarily parallel, or even close to being parallel. Augustana's dominance in wrestling, which I've mentioned already, is dominance in any way, shape, or form that you'd care to mention. Same with Wheaton in men's soccer, as Wheaton not only won 14 of the first 15 CCIW titles in that sport (1988-2004), it only lost one CCIW game in the first 14 seasons that the league sponsored the sport, which is amazing.

Those eras of dominance are now a thing of the past, though, whereas North Central's dominance in men's cross-country (every single freakin' CCIW title since 1974, and all but seven of the titles since the league first began sponsoring the sport in 1960) was, and still continues to be, the very definition of the term "dominance". Other examples of dominance that are ongoing are Wheaton's 15 women's soccer titles in the 17 years to date that the CCIW has sponsored the sport; Illinois Wesleyan's 11 straight (and counting) women's golf titles; Wheaton's 15 straight (and counting) women's swimming titles; North Central's 12 straight (and counting) men's indoor t&f titles; and North Central's winning 26 of the last 28 men's outdoor t&f titles.

However, Elmhurst has only won as many CCIW titles in volleyball (nine) as has Carthage -- and the Lady Reds have won six of the last seven titles. Illinois Wesleyan owns many more titles in men's basketball than anyone else, but the Titans haven't nearly come close to the sort of dominance enjoyed by those other programs I listed in the last paragraph; plus, the Titans haven't won a CCIW title in that sport since 2005, although they've been very successful in the postseason over those past seven years. Men's basketball goes in cycles, but it has been very internally competitive over the past dozen years, and it has always resisted long periods of domination by one team or another. Nobody's ever won more than four CCIW men's basketball titles in a row, and it hasn't happened since the early '70s, when Augie did it under Jim Borcherding. Furthermore, the only time anyone's ever won four straight outright CCIW men's basketball titles (i.e., no ties at the top of the standings) was when Wheaton did it back in the era of Elvis, poodle skirts, Howdy Doody, and big cars with fins.

Not every sport is (or has been) dominated by one program or another. And not even all forms of dominance are equal.

[NCF]

North Central's 12 straight (and counting) men's indoor t&f titles; and North Central's winning 26 of the last 28 men's outdoor t&f titles.

And every one of those titles won in the past few years have been awesome to to watch.  It is amazing when you think of the number of athletes you need to pull it off year after year.

[izzy stradlin]

Chicago Tribune on Jordan Roberts and the QB situation at Wheaton:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/football/ct-spt-1011-prep-college-catchup-20121010,0,1157450.story

[nccfac]

What's the 95% confidence range if you remove the NESCAC teams from Massey's data?  Their crazy HFA numbers skew the stats.

Good question. I did not realize that the NESCAC teams were different from the rest of the conferences, an 8.5 positive average point difference for the home team. (I'm not sure why so large a difference -- do the visitors have to sleep in the buses overnight or does some other hazing takes place before the game?). Taking them out of the mix, gives an average of 2.13 with a 95% confidence interval of 2.33 and 1.93. A lower confidence interval but still positive and significantly different from zero. Thanks ncc-fan for the heads up.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Chicago Tribune on Jordan Roberts and the QB situation at Wheaton:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/football/ct-spt-1011-prep-college-catchup-20121010,0,1157450.story

I wish to propose a new CCIW conference rule: It is illegal to have TWO quarterbacks as good as Meador and Roberts.  (Possible exceptions will be granted if one is a senior, the other a freshman.)

[USee]

Do you know which game Usee's transvestite uncle will be attending this week, if he is indeed the real expert on this board?

USee's the one who keeps tabs on his uncle, not me. Since I don't know what USee looks like, I wouldn't know it if someone who looked like him was wearing a dress.

Truth be known my uncle was a North Park guy. In fact he was on of the head doctors of Swedish covenant hospital for many years before his passing. Neither he nor I have ever donned a dress knowingly. In fact my uncle and mother went to the old North Park academy for high school. They were not the same person.

[NCF]

Chicago Tribune on Jordan Roberts and the QB situation at Wheaton:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/highschool/football/ct-spt-1011-prep-college-catchup-20121010,0,1157450.story

I wish to propose a new CCIW conference rule: It is illegal to have TWO quarterbacks as good as Meador and Roberts.  (Possible exceptions will be granted if one is a senior, the other a freshman.)

It is not surprising that they are using both of them. I had feeling last spring that this might happen.

[NCF]

Quick question-Since this is the first time in four years that NC is traveling to North Park, is the field on Foster and is there parking available? Thanks