FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Langhorst_Ghost]

I say get excited, Elmhurst.  You're 5-1 with 4 games remaining and your biggest challenge comes at home. If I had to make a prediction, I don't think Elmhurst wins out, but they should be optimistic and excited.  Forget about all these tiers.     

Wheaton is a CCIW contender every year (as much as any team can be a contender to NCC lately).  They have finished in the top 3 of the CCIW in every year of the D3football.com era. There have been a few years where Wheaton has had 2 or 3 conference loses, but it doesn't mean the team is down in those years, it just means they lost an extra game or two. A football season is not a scientific sample and the results are only moderately repeatable. Play the same season over and the results are easily different in the reasonably close games. 

LG, I think your assessment of Wheaton is accurate.  With a healthy, Hiben, Roberts, Velling and Randall at OT, this is the best offense they've had in years.  Defense isn't as strong as the offense, but not bad.   I personally don't like the 3-4 and the way they use personnel in it to stop the run, but that's not changing at this point.

Love this post - thanks for the encouragement, Izzy.

[Mugsy]

I say get excited, Elmhurst.  You're 5-1 with 4 games remaining and your biggest challenge comes at home. If I had to make a prediction, I don't think Elmhurst wins out, but they should be optimistic and excited.  Forget about all these tiers.     

Wheaton is a CCIW contender every year (as much as any team can be a contender to NCC lately).  They have finished in the top 3 of the CCIW in every year of the D3football.com era. There have been a few years where Wheaton has had 2 or 3 conference loses, but it doesn't mean the team is down in those years, it just means they lost an extra game or two. A football season is not a scientific sample and the results are only moderately repeatable. Play the same season over and the results are easily different in the reasonably close games. 

LG, I think your assessment of Wheaton is accurate.  With a healthy, Hiben, Roberts, Velling and Randall at OT, this is the best offense they've had in years.  Defense isn't as strong as the offense, but not bad.   I personally don't like the 3-4 and the way they use personnel in it to stop the run, but that's not changing at this point.

Love this post - thanks for the encouragement, Izzy.

Shocking!   

[USee]

In a way it is kind of ironic we are talking about whether Wheaton is a top tier team. Despite their 4-2 record they are actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in the country. That just highlights the subjectivity of the process. On paper, statistically, the undefeated #12 IWU Titans are pretty even with Wheaton. I expect a very close game on Saturday. You would think a non ranked team would most often lose to a top 15 team pretty decisively. See NCC v Carthage, NCC v Elmhurst, IWU v Carthage, etc. The Thunder are a very good team and, as Izzy points out, would be a strong candidate for the AQ if they win out. I don't think that is going to happen but I suspect there is a lot of fight left in that team.

[NCF]

In a way it is kind of ironic we are talking about whether Wheaton is a top tier team. Despite their 4-2 record they are actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in the country. That just highlights the subjectivity of the process. On paper, statistically, the undefeated #12 IWU Titans are pretty even with Wheaton. I expect a very close game on Saturday. You would think a non ranked team would most often lose to a top 15 team pretty decisively. See NCC v Carthage, NCC v Elmhurst, IWU v Carthage, etc. The Thunder are a very good team and, as Izzy points out, would be a strong candidate for the AQ if they win out. I don't think that is going to happen but I suspect there is a lot of fight left in that team.

True and NC is one play from being undefeated an sitting at #4 right now.

[Mugsy]

In a way it is kind of ironic we are talking about whether Wheaton is a top tier team. Despite their 4-2 record they are actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in the country. That just highlights the subjectivity of the process. On paper, statistically, the undefeated #12 IWU Titans are pretty even with Wheaton. I expect a very close game on Saturday. You would think a non ranked team would most often lose to a top 15 team pretty decisively. See NCC v Carthage, NCC v Elmhurst, IWU v Carthage, etc. The Thunder are a very good team and, as Izzy points out, would be a strong candidate for the AQ if they win out. I don't think that is going to happen but I suspect there is a lot of fight left in that team.

True, but turnovers and failure to make the big plays when it has counted is why they aren't undefeated (see 2 Albion TD's on 4th down, see failure to convert 4th and 1 at Elmhurst 3 to name a few).  Guess I'm the pessimistic alum who wouldn't be allowed back on campus. 

While capable of winning out and I'm hoping and rooting for it to happen, I'm not very confident it will happen based on what I've seen in critical situations.  The Wheaton offense is explosive and dangerous, but I have questions about their defense that I just can't get around.

79jaybird is to Elmhurst what Mugsy is to Wheaton, I guess...

[Big Blue Boy]

Lost in all "the noise" is the game last Saturday in Rock Island.  Could someone please shed some light as to what happened?

The Augie team I watched against Wheaton didn't look capable of winning more than 2 conference games at most.  On the flipside Millikin looked to be a surprise team after taking IWU to overtime.

So many questions, so few answers....the Big Blue fandom is still trying to figure out what happened on a rainy day in the Quad Cities.  One thing for sure is that Augie showed up to play on their Homecoming and Millikin did not come close to matching their intensity.  The question is why?  Two years ago Augie drove the length of the field in less than a minute to come from behind and win in Decatur.  Last year the Big Blue did the exact same thing to Augie.  This was a game they both should have been up for, but it sure looked like the near miss at IWU and an a loss where they did some good things against NC might have left them a little over confident.  Only the players know for sure, but you can't do that in the CCIW boys or it will bite you in the back side.  The IWU loss stung, this one just plain hurt.

You could feel it early when on the first three downs Millikin could barely get the ball snapped without being eaten up.  Augie was pumped!  Augie took the punt and proceeded to drive, but hit the upright on on their FG attempt.  For the next five minutes the Big Blue looked like they had their wake up call and proceeded to move the ball at will and put up 14 quick points.  When Augie fumbled the snap on the next three and out series punt attempt, Millikin had the ball just outside the red zone looking to go up 21-0.  The rest as they say is history.  Two plays later Millikin fumbled on a botched handoff and never scored again.  In fact, from that point on their remaining drives produced, in order, 3 Punts, 2 Int, Missed FG, Punt, Downs, Punt, Downs.

Augie tied the game at 14 on a freak play during the heaviest downpour of the day.  The Big Blue punter dropped the snap and still tried to get the kick off.  However, he was moving sideways and the ball actually went backwards 20 yards, was scooped up by a lineman and taken to the house.  Ouch!  From then on, the Augie defense tasted it and kept coming.  For some time the Millikin defense held their own waiting for the offense to resurface, but that never happened with any consistency. 

Down 17-14 at half, Millikin started three 3rd quarter drives near mid-field and came away empty.  They produced two three and outs and a 50 yard, 11 play drive that ended on 4th and 3 inches.  The Big Blue ran a QB draw from the shotgun and lost a yard. Frustrated, but only chasing three with the defense playing well, all was not lost.  What occured next was a stunning 87 yard, 23 play, 13 1/2 minute Augie drive that saw three 4th down conversions with the last one resulting in a TD. Huge momentum swing and props to Augie for getting it done.

There were other opportunites in Q4 like a muffed punt by Augie giving Millikin the ball at the 22 with 6:30 left chasing 10 points.  Time for the comeback like Elmhurst did last week to Augie.  No dice, four and out and then Augie kills the last 5:30 with an 11 play drive.

In summary, Augie outplayed the Big Blue most of the day.  They are better than most thought and Millikin may not be as good as most thought.  Pulling this one out, and being 4-2, would have been a tremendous shot of confidence for Millikin.  The close call victory over Augie clearly got Elmhurst motivated the next week.  Now we will see how good Millikin really is based on how they respond this week against EC.  The talent is there, but as I have stated all year, you have to learn how to win in this league and that is a lesson they still need to learn.  They can do some damage down the stretch or they can fade away as they have in the past decade.  They expected more from themselves, so it will be interesting to see what they are made of the rest of the way.

Sorry for rambling on and congrats to Augie for an extremely well played game, in fact two weeks in a row. 

[Mugsy]

Lost in all "the noise" is the game last Saturday in Rock Island.  Could someone please shed some light as to what happened?

The Augie team I watched against Wheaton didn't look capable of winning more than 2 conference games at most.  On the flipside Millikin looked to be a surprise team after taking IWU to overtime.

So many questions, so few answers....the Big Blue fandom is still trying to figure out what happened on a rainy day in the Quad Cities.  One thing for sure is that Augie showed up to play on their Homecoming and Millikin did not come close to matching their intensity.  The question is why?  Two years ago Augie drove the length of the field in less than a minute to come from behind and win in Decatur.  Last year the Big Blue did the exact same thing to Augie.  This was a game they both should have been up for, but it sure looked like the near miss at IWU and an a loss where they did some good things against NC might have left them a little over confident.  Only the players know for sure, but you can't do that in the CCIW boys or it will bite you in the back side.  The IWU loss stung, this one just plain hurt.

You could feel it early when on the first three downs Millikin could barely get the ball snapped without being eaten up.  Augie was pumped!  Augie took the punt and proceeded to drive, but hit the upright on on their FG attempt.  For the next five minutes the Big Blue looked like they had their wake up call and proceeded to move the ball at will and put up 14 quick points.  When Augie fumbled the snap on the next three and out series punt attempt, Millikin had the ball just outside the red zone looking to go up 21-0.  The rest as they say is history.  Two plays later Millikin fumbled on a botched handoff and never scored again.  In fact, from that point on their remaining drives produced, in order, 3 Punts, 2 Int, Missed FG, Punt, Downs, Punt, Downs.

Augie tied the game at 14 on a freak play during the heaviest downpour of the day.  The Big Blue punter dropped the snap and still tried to get the kick off.  However, he was moving sideways and the ball actually went backwards 20 yards, was scooped up by a lineman and taken to the house.  Ouch!  From then on, the Augie defense tasted it and kept coming.  For some time the Millikin defense held their own waiting for the offense to resurface, but that never happened with any consistency. 

Down 17-14 at half, Millikin started three 3rd quarter drives near mid-field and came away empty.  They produced two three and outs and a 50 yard, 11 play drive that ended on 4th and 3 inches.  The Big Blue ran a QB draw from the shotgun and lost a yard. Frustrated, but only chasing three with the defense playing well, all was not lost.  What occured next was a stunning 87 yard, 23 play, 13 1/2 minute Augie drive that saw three 4th down conversions with the last one resulting in a TD. Huge momentum swing and props to Augie for getting it done.

There were other opportunites in Q4 like a muffed punt by Augie giving Millikin the ball at the 22 with 6:30 left chasing 10 points.  Time for the comeback like Elmhurst did last week to Augie.  No dice, four and out and then Augie kills the last 5:30 with an 11 play drive.

In summary, Augie outplayed the Big Blue most of the day.  They are better than most thought and Millikin may not be as good as most thought.  Pulling this one out, and being 4-2, would have been a tremendous shot of confidence for Millikin.  The close call victory over Augie clearly got Elmhurst motivated the next week.  Now we will see how good Millikin really is based on how they respond this week against EC.  The talent is there, but as I have stated all year, you have to learn how to win in this league and that is a lesson they still need to learn.  They can do some damage down the stretch or they can fade away as they have in the past decade.  They expected more from themselves, so it will be interesting to see what they are made of the rest of the way.

Sorry for rambling on and congrats to Augie for an extremely well played game, in fact two weeks in a row.

Thanks for the detailed summary.  This one was a real "head-scratcher" to me.

[USee]

In a way it is kind of ironic we are talking about whether Wheaton is a top tier team. Despite their 4-2 record they are actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in the country. That just highlights the subjectivity of the process. On paper, statistically, the undefeated #12 IWU Titans are pretty even with Wheaton. I expect a very close game on Saturday. You would think a non ranked team would most often lose to a top 15 team pretty decisively. See NCC v Carthage, NCC v Elmhurst, IWU v Carthage, etc. The Thunder are a very good team and, as Izzy points out, would be a strong candidate for the AQ if they win out. I don't think that is going to happen but I suspect there is a lot of fight left in that team.

True, but turnovers and failure to make the big plays when it has counted is why they aren't undefeated (see 2 Albion TD's on 4th down, see failure to convert 4th and 1 at Elmhurst 3 to name a few).  Guess I'm the pessimistic alum who wouldn't be allowed back on campus. 

While capable of winning out and I'm hoping and rooting for it to happen, I'm not very confident it will happen based on what I've seen in critical situations.  The Wheaton offense is explosive and dangerous, but I have questions about their defense that I just can't get around.

79jaybird is to Elmhurst what Mugsy is to Wheaton, I guess...

I don't disagree and you actually validate my view.My point is that the main difference between a top 10 Wheaton team and an unranked Wheaton team is not talent, it's execution. There is no remedy mid-season for the first problem. The second problem is fixable.

[matblake]

In a way it is kind of ironic we are talking about whether Wheaton is a top tier team. Despite their 4-2 record they are actually 2 plays away from being undefeated and ranked in the top 10 in the country. That just highlights the subjectivity of the process. On paper, statistically, the undefeated #12 IWU Titans are pretty even with Wheaton. I expect a very close game on Saturday. You would think a non ranked team would most often lose to a top 15 team pretty decisively. See NCC v Carthage, NCC v Elmhurst, IWU v Carthage, etc. The Thunder are a very good team and, as Izzy points out, would be a strong candidate for the AQ if they win out. I don't think that is going to happen but I suspect there is a lot of fight left in that team.

True, but turnovers and failure to make the big plays when it has counted is why they aren't undefeated (see 2 Albion TD's on 4th down, see failure to convert 4th and 1 at Elmhurst 3 to name a few).  Guess I'm the pessimistic alum who wouldn't be allowed back on campus. 

While capable of winning out and I'm hoping and rooting for it to happen, I'm not very confident it will happen based on what I've seen in critical situations.  The Wheaton offense is explosive and dangerous, but I have questions about their defense that I just can't get around.

79jaybird is to Elmhurst what Mugsy is to Wheaton, I guess...

I don't disagree and you actually validate my view.My point is that the main difference between a top 10 Wheaton team and an unranked Wheaton team is not talent, it's execution. There is no remedy mid-season for the first problem. The second problem is fixable.

Good point.  It's still gloomy re: Wheaton from where I sit, but a little hope is always a good thing.

[79jaybird]

And Elmhurst is a few plays from have (2) losses (Augie/Wheaton).  This is what makes team great--good-so-so- and bad.     Execution and timely execution is easy to say, but so difficult to achieve throughout the season.    The last few 6-4 Elmhurst teams have been 1 or 2 plays (with a more positive result) could have been 7-3 or ( a stretch) 8-2.

Mugsy and I are great ambassadors of our respective colleges.  We are also pretty level and "fair" with judging and critiquing our schools.  I think the same could be said for Greg, Titan Q, and a few other regular posters.

**While all the noise has been generated by Elmhurst and Wheaton posters,  what does NC and IWU (if they get the Pool C) have to do to get past the 2nd or 3rd rounds this year?  Seems like we have just not been able to get over the "hump" lately in the post season?  I have my thoughts, but want to hear what the choir thinks?

[New Tradition]

**While all the noise has been generated by Elmhurst and Wheaton posters,  what does NC and IWU (if they get the Pool C) have to do to get past the 2nd or 3rd rounds this year?  Seems like we have just not been able to get over the "hump" lately in the post season?  I have my thoughts, but want to hear what the choir thinks?

Apart from not running into a purple team or imploding in the second half, I think the Wheaton posters could answer this best, as they have gone the deepest in the playoffs in recent memory.

[USee]

To advance in the playoffs you have to be playing your best football at the end of the season and be relatively healthy. I also think you need a lot of balance offensively. IWU has a chance if Stinde stay's healthy as they are going to be better as the season progresses. NCC will have to find balance offensively but their defense looks as strong as it has been. With UWW struggling a bit this year it opens up the opportunity for the CCIW to have a strong showing. It depends on draw in the brackets but I would expect the CCIW reps to make it to the 2nd round at least. If not, we need to seriously rethink our place among the conference elites.

[Langhorst_Ghost]

Off topic, but relevant to the recent story on the D3 homepage (http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/south/index).  And with players like Garcon, Fred Jackson, and the kid from Albion, Greenwood (among others) repping D3 in the big dance, thought i'd check the temperature of the current talent pool in the conference.

Just past the midway point of the season and having had a few chances to watch and evaluate players around the conference, are there any kids that you have identified as professional prospects (NFL, Arena, or otherwise) in the CCIW?

In years past, we have had scouts sniffing around the conference - a few names come to mind in recent memory: obviously Ittersagen and Studebaker got the call, but kids like Radke, Wenger, and Fiedorowicz at NCC got some looks, the big safety Maple and linebacker Randy Wright from EC were on the radar, the stud Augie tackle Westermeyer may have had a few opportunities, Brandon Fox from Carthage had some looks, and i am sure i am missing a ton of other talented guys.

Right now, and it's early (sophomore), i might offer Hiben as a guy - not sure if his top end speed is good enough, but he's got the prototypical frame.  Any other cats out there that have a shot?

[USee]

Hiben is a legit 4.5. With 6-4 frame and 210 lbs that is going to turn some eyes. He is on pace to put up numbers that would put his name in the conversation with Basallion and Loeffler (the two most productive recievers this conference has ever seen). With the success of Garcon and CSIII, I would think if he stays healthy and does that, he will merit serious NFL consideration.

[79jaybird]

Ugh! Purple anything makes me sick.  Our arch rival (RM) was Purple and yellow (they called it gold but if my jewelry looked like that, gold I would return it) and had to take my ACT there.  Like you said New Tradition, the purple monsters have been the dead end for many conferences last few years.