FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[emma17]

Elmhurst is going to be a 3 seed in the playoffs. They will play a 7 seed in Elmhurst. Think Franklin, Adrian, maybe Witt/Kenyon. So a possible Bracket for Elmhurst could be:

UWOshkosh v NCC
CUC v Adrian
Elmhurst v Franklin
Heidleberg v Witt

If Kenyon wins the NCAC bid then I would say:

UWO v NCC
CUC v Kenyon
Elmhurst v Adrian
Heidelberg v Franklin

It all depends on the larger field and how it fits but you get the idea.

If you are right about the UWO v NCC 1st round matchup- I think it's unfortunate for UWO.  I'm not saying they can't beat NCC, but NCC surely is nothing like a typical #8 seed. 

[izzy stradlin]

John Thorne interview on the Wheaton game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7b_MTd0CYE&list=UUj4MmUNRX4z2J0hyRte4e2Q&index=3&feature=plcp

Re: tiebreaker

At the 10:00 mark in the clip, the tiebreaker in discussed, followed by Thorne specifically commenting on how it came up on the sideline and basically deciding to cut their losses and play for the tiebreaker with the 98 yard drive and then kicking it away instead of the onside.  I honestly don't think the Wheaton coaches had the tiebreaker in mind during the game  (probably didn't anticipate being up 3 scores with under 3 minutes).

[kiko]

What will be important for any CCIW team left to the mercy of Pool C is how quickly they get to the table for discussion.  Being ranked 9th or 10th is less important than being the number 'x' team to the table.

These will undoubtedly shuffle a bit following this weekend's games, but here is how Pool C consideration plays out given the current North Region rankings:

1   Mount Union   9-0   9-0        (Pool A)
2   Concordia Chicago   9-0   9-0        (Pool A)
3   Elmhurst   8-1   8-1
4   Heidelberg   8-1   8-1        (Pool C)
5   Wittenberg   8-1   8-1       (Pool C with chance for Pool A)
6   Ohio Wesleyan   7-1   8-1       (Pool C with chance for Pool A)
7   Adrian   8-1   8-1        (Pool A)
8   Franklin   7-1   7-2        (Plays Hanover for HCAC title on Saturday)
9   Wheaton (Ill.)   7-2   7-2
10   North Central (Ill.)   7-2   7-2

- Kenyon, who is not ranked, is tied with Witt and Ohio Wesleyan atop the NCAC, and if I am reading correctly, would get the Pool 'A' if all three win out.  Root for a Kenyon loss -- it would give one of the others the AQ and get the CCIW bridesmaids to the table one place sooner. Kenyon hosts 3-3/3-6 Denison on Saturday.

- Franklin tops the HCAC at 7-0 with Hanover second at 6-1.  They meet at Franklin on Saturday.  I presume a Hanover win is good news for the CCIW as they could send Franklin below CCIW candidates in the Pool C pecking order.

- If Elmhurst were to lose to the Green Weenies on Saturday, they could conceivably drop to where they are the fourth or fifth North Region team to get to the table.  If they win (and are not the AQ), they would be the first team up for discussion assuming the status quo holds.

- If North Central or Wheaton wins this weekend but do not get the AQ, they will have a long wait to get to the table for discussion.

- In the department of 'things that may only amuse me', Concordia lists the Selection Show on their schedule.  Apparently, this is a road game.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

[kiko]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

Franklin's only loss is to Mount.  You are likely correct that a second in-region loss sticks a fork in their chances, but there is a bizarro-world chance that they could stay in the mix.  I'm surprised they are as low as they are given the MUU loss is the only blemish from a Regional Ranking standpoint.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

Franklin's only loss is to Mount.  You are likely correct that a second in-region loss sticks a fork in their chances, but there is a bizarro-world chance that they could stay in the mix.  I'm surprised they are as low as they are given the MUU loss is the only blemish from a Regional Ranking standpoint.

I was just noting that a Franklin win definitely knocks them out of C (they'd be the A) - since Hanover is no threat, why risk a Franklin C?

[kiko]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

Franklin's only loss is to Mount.  You are likely correct that a second in-region loss sticks a fork in their chances, but there is a bizarro-world chance that they could stay in the mix.  I'm surprised they are as low as they are given the MUU loss is the only blemish from a Regional Ranking standpoint.

I was just noting that a Franklin win definitely knocks them out of C (they'd be the A) - since Hanover is no threat, why risk a Franklin C?

You're right... I was over-thinking it.  The only reason to root for a Franklin C would be if (1) you were sure they would fall below the CCIW candidates, and (2) you thought having a higher seed would be better.  But since seeding is based on criteria that don't necessarily equate to actual acumen, there's little reason to opt for this option.

[HScoach]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

And conversely, whichever high seed gets NCC lost the lottery.  I have no illusions of NCC being a juggernaut like they were a couple years ago, but that's still a good team from a historically strong conference with a ton of playoff experience.  I'd love to see NCC the #8 seed just to welcome UWO to the playoffs in Round 1.  And wouldn't be surprised to see NCC upset them simply because of experience.    UWO has senior leadership to offset some of that, but that first playoff game is a different beast.

If they get Heidelberg, I would make NCC a 7.5 favorite for the same reason.  H'Berg is talented, but they're crazy young and this is will be their first EVER playoff trip and they're only a few years removed from a 36 game losing streak.  If there ever was a recipe for "just happy to be here", it's Heidelberg do to their youth.   They are mostly sophomores (including QB and RB) and start 10 underclassmen on offense.   Defense is about 50/50 on seniors versus underclassmen.  Making the playoffs and getting that experience is going to set them up very nicely for '13 and '14, but I seriously doubt H'Berg wins Round 1 against someone with the experience and talent of NCC.

[NCF]

A Hanover win presumably knocks out Franklin.  But a Franklin win gives them the A, and Hanover is not a viable C candidate.  So, while the game is pretty irrelevant to CCIW C chances, a Franklin win is the even safer rooting bet.

If a low-seeded CCIW team gets to go to CUC, they have won the bracket lottery!   Arguably the worst #2 seed in d3 history.  (But they won the criteria, fair and square.)

And conversely, whichever high seed gets NCC lost the lottery.  I have no illusions of NCC being a juggernaut like they were a couple years ago, but that's still a good team from a historically strong conference with a ton of playoff experience.  I'd love to see NCC the #8 seed just to welcome UWO to the playoffs in Round 1.  And wouldn't be surprised to see NCC upset them simply because of experience.    UWO has senior leadership to offset some of that, but that first playoff game is a different beast.

If they get Heidelberg, I would make NCC a 7.5 favorite for the same reason.  H'Berg is talented, but they're crazy young and this is will be their first EVER playoff trip and they're only a few years removed from a 36 game losing streak.  If there ever was a recipe for "just happy to be here", it's Heidelberg do to their youth.   They are mostly sophomores (including QB and RB) and start 10 underclassmen on offense.   Defense is about 50/50 on seniors versus underclassmen.  Making the playoffs and getting that experience is going to set them up very nicely for '13 and '14, but I seriously doubt H'Berg wins Round 1 against someone with the experience and talent of NCC.

I think whoever gets NC (again, they still need help from Elmhurst) just might not take them seriously enough. I don't really care where they go, but it would be nice to be a 7 and get a game or two in before taking on the #1. At this point, I'm sure NC would be happy to get in and make a run.

[NCF]

Projected play-off brackets
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection
I like NC's chances IF they get in, AND it turns out this way.

[USee]

NewCardFan,

I cannot imagine anyone in the playoffs not taking NCC too seriously. As you saw with HSCoach and other's comments, NCC is well known and their playoff prowess of a couple years ago v UWW will keep all opponents aware of their capabilities. There won't be a team that overlooks them. I would love to see a round 2 matchup of NCC v Bethel. That would be a great game.

[USee]

this playoff bracket is a great analysis by Pat, Keith and the team. It highlights a problem in the system right now. You have the North Region commitee, who has ranked their teams primarily according to win/loss percentage and other regions (east and West) who have ranked their teams based on the selection criteria. What that means is that Wheaton is buried behind Witt and OWU who will block them from being considered by the national committee on Selection Sunday. If Wheaton was ranked ahead of the NCAC runner ups (like Keith suggested earlier this week) they would have a 7-2 record, somewhere near a .535 SOS and 1-1 v regionally ranked opponents. If you compare those numbers to those of Bethel (7-2, .585 SOS, 1-1 v RRO) and Conc Moorehead (6-2, .604 SOS, 0-2 v RRO) it is favorable. Wheaton has no chance currently and unless they leap the NCAC tandem ahead of them in the final rankings, will be done with their season tomorrow.

[USee]

John Thorne interview on the Wheaton game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7b_MTd0CYE&list=UUj4MmUNRX4z2J0hyRte4e2Q&index=3&feature=plcp

Re: tiebreaker

At the 10:00 mark in the clip, the tiebreaker in discussed, followed by Thorne specifically commenting on how it came up on the sideline and basically deciding to cut their losses and play for the tiebreaker with the 98 yard drive and then kicking it away instead of the onside.  I honestly don't think the Wheaton coaches had the tiebreaker in mind during the game  (probably didn't anticipate being up 3 scores with under 3 minutes).

This is interesting and Thorne fully acknowledges he told his team they had to score to protect the tie breaker. He also says they definitely kicked it deep on purpose and he was very surprised to see Wheaton stopped throwing it in the last 1.30. Clearly the NCC coaches' decisions during the game Saturday were affected by the tie breaker status. This is something that could cost the Thunder after tomorrow.

[Langhorst_Ghost]

Well, here we are...a day away from Saturday.  Keith M posted this piece on D3.com yesterday:

http://d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2012/it-all-comes-down-to-saturday

Go Jays!

[USee]

No matter the results this weekend, the group of Wheaton Seniors has a chance tomorrow to secure another conference championship which, given where they were after the loss @ Elmhurst, is nothing short of an amazing accomplishment. What a great way to go out your senior year.

Now they have to seal the deal tomorrow.