FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program. As far as them making it to the Stagg, all that got them was the "Mt Union Award" which Wheaton has 6 of. Color me unimpressed. I would have put them around 10-11 after losing...But do I think there is a big separation between St Thomas, Franklin, Wabash, Wheaton, JCU, Heidi? No, I dont'. I would have put most of those teams ahead of St Thomas after losing to St Johns.

There's a big difference between UST and Wheaton...only one faced Mount in the Stagg Bowl. UST beat the #4, #8, #9, #12 & #18 teams by an average of 22 points en route to that loss to #1 Mount. I don't dispute UMHB being #2 at the end last year. But who would you realistically say UST loses to after that? Better yet, what's your reasoning for any team behind them being above them?

1   Mount Union (25)   
2   Mary Hardin-Baylor   
3   St. Thomas   
4   UW-Oshkosh - lost to UST
5   Linfield   - Lost to UWO at home
6   Wesley   - Lost twice to UMHB, who Mount beat...the only team you can even begin to make an argument UST may have lost to
7   North Central (Ill.)   - 3 loss team that lost big to Linfield
8   Elmhurst    - lost to UST
9   Hobart   - lost to UST
10   Widener   - lost to Mount 72-17
11   Salisbury   - 3 loss team
12   Bethel   - Lost to UST
13   UW-Platteville   - 2 loss team that didn't make the field
14   Wittenberg   - crushed by the Hobart team UST crushed

Now, for this year, you could certainly have put the teams listed ahead of UST. And they may actually be better. For what it's worth, I don't think any of them beat UST. But then again, you and I don't get a vote! Bottom line, it's not absurd for voters to think UST would beat the teams listed below them. And like Pat said, I'd hope voters do think things through beyond a teams win percentage. You obviously do as well, since you still like Franklin 

I'm going to go take a shower now...all this apologetic on behalf of U$T has me feeling unclean 

HB,

I agree with you but Wheaton lost 6 times to then #1 Mount (usually after beating someone that was supposed to be good0 so all you have done is proven my point. I have no issue with last years EOY poll. I think UST could probably beat most of the teams on the top 25. But I think Wheaton, Wabash, NCC, IWU, and JCU probably could too. The difference is none of those schools have lost to an unranked team.

[Pat Coleman]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program.

St. Thomas went from 600 points to 422 in the polls after the loss. In what way is losing 178 points in the polls a "free pass"?

Bombers,

In the following way:

in 2012:
week 1 NCC loses and moves from #6-#13 (loses 263 points)
Week 4 Wabash loses and moves from #7-17 (loses 261 pts)
Week 9 Salisbury loses and moves from #7-#16 (Loses 235 pts)

In 2011:
Week 1 NCC loses and goes from #4-#15 (loses 284 pts)
Week 2 Wesley loses and goes from #3-#15 (loses 300 pts)
Week 4 ONU loses and goes from #9-#24 (loses 253 pts)

In 2010:
Week 2 Linfield loses and goes from #4-#16 (loses 290 pts)

These are all great points but every single one of them omits the name of the opponent. Standings are opponent-agnostic, rankings are not.

[Gregory Sager]

I know that there were well-meaning intentions from outsiders over the years whenever they cheerfully posted something along the lines of, "I think that this is the season that North Park is going to win a CCIW game!" The problems with that, however, were: a) there was never any indication that the person really knew what he or she was talking about at all, in the sense that there was never any sort of football-based evidence presented to back up his or her hypothesis;

Hey uhm ... ok.

Pat, I don't purchase your annual d3football.com "Kickoff" preview, so I had no idea that it had predicted that NPU was going to beat Carthage until you mentioned it on this week's podcast. Therefore, the above statement obviously doesn't apply to you and Keith.

[ExTartanPlayer]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program.

St. Thomas went from 600 points to 422 in the polls after the loss. In what way is losing 178 points in the polls a "free pass"?

Bombers,

In the following way:

in 2012:
week 1 NCC loses and moves from #6-#13 (loses 263 points)
Week 4 Wabash loses and moves from #7-17 (loses 261 pts)
Week 9 Salisbury loses and moves from #7-#16 (Loses 235 pts)

In 2011:
Week 1 NCC loses and goes from #4-#15 (loses 284 pts)
Week 2 Wesley loses and goes from #3-#15 (loses 300 pts)
Week 4 ONU loses and goes from #9-#24 (loses 253 pts)

In 2010:
Week 2 Linfield loses and goes from #4-#16 (loses 290 pts)

If you take the average of these precedents (there are plenty of other examples) and take 269 pts from St Thomas they would be ranked somewhere in the #13-#14 area after their loss. That's obviously not how its done and other factors are involved, but doesn't seem equitible and the precedents seem pretty clear. I understand who they might be able to beat but they lost to an UNRANKED TEAM. Sorry guys but St Johns isn't what they once were rivalry or not. I am not buying it.

Week 1 and Week 2 losses are going to affect poll results in a much different way than Week 5 losses because of the number of games played.  Teams always drop further after a Week 1 loss (which makes them 0-1) than they will after a loss at midseason when there are a couple of extra wins to offset the damage of said loss.

Also, the individual character of some of those losses is a quite different from what's presented here.  2012 NCC opened the season with a loss to UW-LAX, coming off a 3-7 season and heading towards a 4-6 season.  2012 Wabash lost to an Allegheny team that had been obliterated by Carnegie Mellon the week before.  2012 Salisbury lost to an Ithaca team on a three-game losing streak entering the game.  2011 Ohio Northern lost to Muskingum, perennial OAC bottom-feeder.  St. John's may not be what they once were, but they were 2-0 entering the game and they are significantly better than most of the other teams that pulled the upsets you reference here.  If you're taking the quality of opposition into consideration, you can argue that all of the teams you reference here deserved a bigger ding than UST did for losing to "unranked" St. John's.  All unranked teams aren't created equal, you know.

[emma17]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program. As far as them making it to the Stagg, all that got them was the "Mt Union Award" which Wheaton has 6 of. Color me unimpressed. I would have put them around 10-11 after losing...But do I think there is a big separation between St Thomas, Franklin, Wabash, Wheaton, JCU, Heidi? No, I dont'. I would have put most of those teams ahead of St Thomas after losing to St Johns.

There's a big difference between UST and Wheaton...only one faced Mount in the Stagg Bowl. UST beat the #4, #8, #9, #12 & #18 teams by an average of 22 points en route to that loss to #1 Mount. I don't dispute UMHB being #2 at the end last year. But who would you realistically say UST loses to after that? Better yet, what's your reasoning for any team behind them being above them?

1   Mount Union (25)   
2   Mary Hardin-Baylor   
3   St. Thomas   
4   UW-Oshkosh - lost to UST
5   Linfield   - Lost to UWO at home
6   Wesley   - Lost twice to UMHB, who Mount beat...the only team you can even begin to make an argument UST may have lost to
7   North Central (Ill.)   - 3 loss team that lost big to Linfield
8   Elmhurst    - lost to UST
9   Hobart   - lost to UST
10   Widener   - lost to Mount 72-17
11   Salisbury   - 3 loss team
12   Bethel   - Lost to UST
13   UW-Platteville   - 2 loss team that didn't make the field
14   Wittenberg   - crushed by the Hobart team UST crushed

Now, for this year, you could certainly have put the teams listed ahead of UST. And they may actually be better. For what it's worth, I don't think any of them beat UST. But then again, you and I don't get a vote! Bottom line, it's not absurd for voters to think UST would beat the teams listed below them. And like Pat said, I'd hope voters do think things through beyond a teams win percentage. You obviously do as well, since you still like Franklin 

I'm going to go take a shower now...all this apologetic on behalf of U$T has me feeling unclean 

HB,

I agree with you but Wheaton lost 6 times to then #1 Mount (usually after beating someone that was supposed to be good0 so all you have done is proven my point. I have no issue with last years EOY poll. I think UST could probably beat most of the teams on the top 25. But I think Wheaton, Wabash, NCC, IWU, and JCU probably could too. The difference is none of those schools have lost to an unranked team.

USee I think you're doing a fine job defending your position.
Your case holds water IMO given some of the prior results.
That said, from my perspective I still prefer the Subjectivity that the pollsters are showing. I like that they ask the question - what teams below St T would probably beat them given all we know at this point in time.
If St T is undeserving we will know soon enough.
As for now, IMO the national runner up with so much returning talent gets the benefit of the doubt.

[USee]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program.

St. Thomas went from 600 points to 422 in the polls after the loss. In what way is losing 178 points in the polls a "free pass"?

Bombers,

In the following way:

in 2012:
week 1 NCC loses and moves from #6-#13 (loses 263 points)
Week 4 Wabash loses and moves from #7-17 (loses 261 pts)
Week 9 Salisbury loses and moves from #7-#16 (Loses 235 pts)

In 2011:
Week 1 NCC loses and goes from #4-#15 (loses 284 pts)
Week 2 Wesley loses and goes from #3-#15 (loses 300 pts)
Week 4 ONU loses and goes from #9-#24 (loses 253 pts)

In 2010:
Week 2 Linfield loses and goes from #4-#16 (loses 290 pts)

If you take the average of these precedents (there are plenty of other examples) and take 269 pts from St Thomas they would be ranked somewhere in the #13-#14 area after their loss. That's obviously not how its done and other factors are involved, but doesn't seem equitible and the precedents seem pretty clear. I understand who they might be able to beat but they lost to an UNRANKED TEAM. Sorry guys but St Johns isn't what they once were rivalry or not. I am not buying it.

Week 1 and Week 2 losses are going to affect poll results in a much different way than Week 5 losses because of the number of games played.  Teams always drop further after a Week 1 loss (which makes them 0-1) than they will after a loss at midseason when there are a couple of extra wins to offset the damage of said loss.

Also, the individual character of some of those losses is a quite different from what's presented here.  2012 NCC opened the season with a loss to UW-LAX, coming off a 3-7 season and heading towards a 4-6 season.  2012 Wabash lost to an Allegheny team that had been obliterated by Carnegie Mellon the week before.  2012 Salisbury lost to an Ithaca team on a three-game losing streak entering the game.  2011 Ohio Northern lost to Muskingum, perennial OAC bottom-feeder.  St. John's may not be what they once were, but they were 2-0 entering the game and they are significantly better than most of the other teams that pulled the upsets you reference here.  If you're taking the quality of opposition into consideration, you can argue that all of the teams you reference here deserved a bigger ding than UST did for losing to "unranked" St. John's.  All unranked teams aren't created equal, you know.

Ex,

I hear you but your statements (in bold above) are simply false presumptions. The first statement is not supported by the data. Plenty of examples of week 5+ losses with big moves down the polls. As for the second bold statement, St. Johns, coming off a 3-5 season, beat two 0-4 teams by 3 pts each. All unranked teams are equal in the fact they are unranked for a reason.

[ExTartanPlayer]

my view has nothing to do with winning percentage, I agree 100% with you. I am simply saying I have watched St Thomas and I don't think they deserve a free pass for losing to an unranked, average St Johns team despite the heritage of either program.

St. Thomas went from 600 points to 422 in the polls after the loss. In what way is losing 178 points in the polls a "free pass"?

Bombers,

In the following way:

in 2012:
week 1 NCC loses and moves from #6-#13 (loses 263 points)
Week 4 Wabash loses and moves from #7-17 (loses 261 pts)
Week 9 Salisbury loses and moves from #7-#16 (Loses 235 pts)

In 2011:
Week 1 NCC loses and goes from #4-#15 (loses 284 pts)
Week 2 Wesley loses and goes from #3-#15 (loses 300 pts)
Week 4 ONU loses and goes from #9-#24 (loses 253 pts)

In 2010:
Week 2 Linfield loses and goes from #4-#16 (loses 290 pts)

If you take the average of these precedents (there are plenty of other examples) and take 269 pts from St Thomas they would be ranked somewhere in the #13-#14 area after their loss. That's obviously not how its done and other factors are involved, but doesn't seem equitible and the precedents seem pretty clear. I understand who they might be able to beat but they lost to an UNRANKED TEAM. Sorry guys but St Johns isn't what they once were rivalry or not. I am not buying it.

Week 1 and Week 2 losses are going to affect poll results in a much different way than Week 5 losses because of the number of games played.  Teams always drop further after a Week 1 loss (which makes them 0-1) than they will after a loss at midseason when there are a couple of extra wins to offset the damage of said loss.

Also, the individual character of some of those losses is a quite different from what's presented here.  2012 NCC opened the season with a loss to UW-LAX, coming off a 3-7 season and heading towards a 4-6 season.  2012 Wabash lost to an Allegheny team that had been obliterated by Carnegie Mellon the week before.  2012 Salisbury lost to an Ithaca team on a three-game losing streak entering the game.  2011 Ohio Northern lost to Muskingum, perennial OAC bottom-feeder.  St. John's may not be what they once were, but they were 2-0 entering the game and they are significantly better than most of the other teams that pulled the upsets you reference here.  If you're taking the quality of opposition into consideration, you can argue that all of the teams you reference here deserved a bigger ding than UST did for losing to "unranked" St. John's.  All unranked teams aren't created equal, you know.

Ex,

I hear you but your statements (in bold above) are simply false presumptions. The first statement is not supported by the data. Plenty of examples of week 5+ losses with big moves down the polls. As for the second bold statement, St. Johns, coming off a 3-5 season, beat two 0-4 teams by 3 pts each. All unranked teams are equal in the fact they are unranked for a reason.

LOL. 

"Plenty of examples of week 5+ losses with big moves down the polls."

Of course Week 5+ losses to crappy opponents sure are going to lead to big moves down in the polls.  Show me a couple of these "plenty" of examples of losses that occurred week 5 and later that actually led to a team dropping a significant number of spots in the polls that came against a truly good team.  2012 Salisbury losing to 4-3 Ithaca, MAYBE, but Ithaca had lost three in a row entering the game and would lose another game afterwards.

"As for the second bold statement, St. Johns, coming off a 3-5 season, beat two 0-4 teams by 3 pts each."

St. John's is coming off a 5-5 season, not a 3-5 season, and the two 0-4 teams they beat by 3 points each are from the conference that's been ranked #1 overall almost every season since D3football.com started ranking the conferences.  I don't think you'll find anyone who will seriously argue 2013 St. John's is actually equal to 2012 Allegheny or 2011 Muskingum.  Maybe 2012 UW-LaCrosse was/is better than 2013 St. John's.

"All unranked teams are equal in the fact they are unranked for a reason."

Really?  REALLY?  Are we REALLY having this argument?

[USee]

I can't believe it either. You are defending and parsing the unranked teams? seriously? I don't think Allegheny and St Johns are equal but it doesn't matter. They aren't any more equal than Mt Union and St Thomas. Nothing you have argued changes the point. I get that some voters are holding on to the dream that St Thomas v St Johns is a fluke. I am saying I don't buy it. So be it. They were treated differently than all the other examples I looked at in my opinion. There isn't a discernible difference between weeks 1-2 and week 3 is there? Those are all early season losses. You are really reaching to defend your position. Again, I could care less about this, I am simply making an observation.

[USee]

And since you asked:

2011:
Week 8 Montclair loses to TCNJ (7-3) and drops from #9-17
Week 10 Thomas More loses to Waynesburg (5-5) and drops from #8-#21
Week 11 Hardin Simmons loses to Louisiana College (7-3) and drops from #7-#19
Final Poll Wittenberg drops from #9-#17 after going 10-1 and losing in the playoffs to ONU (10-2) whose only losses were to NCC and UMU

Shall I continue? Your assertion is not supported by the data. Drops in the poll are similar in nature week 1, week 8, week 14, it hasn't mattered but St Thomas was different. I get it, I just don't agree with it.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Well, yeah, I am parsing the unranked teams because they aren't created equal.  We do kind of have to judge games against unranked teams, since about 10% of Division III is "ranked" and thus most of everyone's schedule will include unranked teams...but you're seriously going to argue that games against the 50th-best Division III team and the 200th-best Division III team should be treated the same because they don't carry the magical "ranked" label?  There's an awfully big spread between the better unranked teams and the lesser ones.

UST does have one other thing that none of those seven teams had, which you've already dismissed since they lost to Mount Union and anyone can do that: they played in the Stagg last year.  I'm sure Wheaton would have those six titles if they just hadn't run into gosh-darn Mount Union, but seriously, making it to the Stagg earns you a little benefit of the doubt unless you do something really egregious the following year, like losing to someone from the MIAA...ahem, that reminds me, you forgot one from your list:

2012: Wheaton lost in Week #2 to Albion and drops from #10 to #19, losing 195 points

[ExTartanPlayer]

And since you asked:

2011:
Week 8 Montclair loses to TCNJ (7-3) and drops from #9-17
Week 10 Thomas More loses to Waynesburg (5-5) and drops from #8-#21
Week 11 Hardin Simmons loses to Louisiana College (7-3) and drops from #7-#19
Final Poll Wittenberg drops from #9-#17 after going 10-1 and losing in the playoffs to ONU (10-2) whose only losses were to NCC and UMU

Shall I continue? Your assertion is not supported by the data. Drops in the poll are similar in nature week 1, week 8, week 14, it hasn't mattered but St Thomas was different. I get it, I just don't agree with it.

TCNJ - not ranked, unimpressed
Waynesburg - not ranked, unimpressed
LaCollege - not ranked, unimpressed

I'm being facetious, but you can't have it both ways.  You don't get to pretend in one post that it doesn't matter because "any loss to an unranked team is a loss to an unranked team" and then use these as examples of teams being docked for losses to good teams.

[USee]

And an article on IWU's large senior class...

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/football/big-iwu-senior-class-eager-to-close-out-with-special/article_a3b47e58-06f4-11e3-b2e7-001a4bcf887a.html

Q brought up this article a few weeks back that shows IWU with 32 people in their SR class. Obviously we all know that you win the CCIW with upper classmen and good teams with a strong senior class are almost always in contention for league titles in all sports, but surely in CCIW football. This is a big reason why IWU has such high aspirations for the current season.

I took a look at the CCIW schools, and in particular the projected top 3. I looked at how many seniors are returning and how many of them are regular contributors on the field in terms of playing time for meaningful parts of games.

(seniors/contributors)
IWU 30/15
Wheaton 26/19
NCC 21/13

Augie 25/13
Elmhurst 17/7
Millikin  14/7
NPU  17/7

I have a pretty good feel for the top 3 plus Elmhurst of how many are "contributing" the other schools are partly informed and part guesses. A couple observations:

IWU and Wheaton are threats to win the conference title because of their incredibly strong senior classes and experience. I think this stat shows why there is separation amongst the top 3 as much as anything else.

-Augie is surprisingly strong in their senior class. It does matter how good those seniors are and I think what we have seen is they don't have enough senior All CCIW type players to compete with the top 3. This stat makes me think they will be in the top half of the league this year though.

-NPU has as strong a senior class as they have had in some years (GS has previously mentioned this). Makes me think they can compete this year with the likes of Millikin and Carthage. It wouldn't be a total shock to see 2 conference wins from NPU......heresy you say? We will see

Hey Greg,

See above......I may not qualify in your book as someone who "...has given any indication...he or she knows anyting at all".....but I did make this post several weeks ago. 

[Gregory Sager]

And an article on IWU's large senior class...

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/football/big-iwu-senior-class-eager-to-close-out-with-special/article_a3b47e58-06f4-11e3-b2e7-001a4bcf887a.html

Q brought up this article a few weeks back that shows IWU with 32 people in their SR class. Obviously we all know that you win the CCIW with upper classmen and good teams with a strong senior class are almost always in contention for league titles in all sports, but surely in CCIW football. This is a big reason why IWU has such high aspirations for the current season.

I took a look at the CCIW schools, and in particular the projected top 3. I looked at how many seniors are returning and how many of them are regular contributors on the field in terms of playing time for meaningful parts of games.

(seniors/contributors)
IWU 30/15
Wheaton 26/19
NCC 21/13

Augie 25/13
Elmhurst 17/7
Millikin  14/7
NPU  17/7

I have a pretty good feel for the top 3 plus Elmhurst of how many are "contributing" the other schools are partly informed and part guesses. A couple observations:

IWU and Wheaton are threats to win the conference title because of their incredibly strong senior classes and experience. I think this stat shows why there is separation amongst the top 3 as much as anything else.

-Augie is surprisingly strong in their senior class. It does matter how good those seniors are and I think what we have seen is they don't have enough senior All CCIW type players to compete with the top 3. This stat makes me think they will be in the top half of the league this year though.

-NPU has as strong a senior class as they have had in some years (GS has previously mentioned this). Makes me think they can compete this year with the likes of Millikin and Carthage. It wouldn't be a total shock to see 2 conference wins from NPU......heresy you say? We will see

Hey Greg,

See above......I may not qualify in your book as someone who "...has given any indication...he or she knows anyting at all".....but I did make this post several weeks ago. 

Duly noted, Obi-Wan ... although pointing this out right now seems suspiciously like damage control on your part, coming on the heels as it does of your increasingly-desperate attempts to ward off the rhetorical blows of XTart, HB, Pat, bombers, & Co.

[USee]

"Serpentine, Shell, Serpentine!" 

[USee]

And since you asked:

2011:
Week 8 Montclair loses to TCNJ (7-3) and drops from #9-17
Week 10 Thomas More loses to Waynesburg (5-5) and drops from #8-#21
Week 11 Hardin Simmons loses to Louisiana College (7-3) and drops from #7-#19
Final Poll Wittenberg drops from #9-#17 after going 10-1 and losing in the playoffs to ONU (10-2) whose only losses were to NCC and UMU

Shall I continue? Your assertion is not supported by the data. Drops in the poll are similar in nature week 1, week 8, week 14, it hasn't mattered but St Thomas was different. I get it, I just don't agree with it.

TCNJ - not ranked, unimpressed
Waynesburg - not ranked, unimpressed
LaCollege - not ranked, unimpressed

I'm being facetious, but you can't have it both ways.  You don't get to pretend in one post that it doesn't matter because "any loss to an unranked team is a loss to an unranked team" and then use these as examples of teams being docked for losses to good teams.

Since this is my home board I will take the podium last: to be clear, I only listed the "good team" because you made the assertion that all my examples were losses by top 10 teams to bad unranked teams.

And for the record, I thought Wheaton should have fallen farther than they did last year. I think part of that is due to the same anomaly we are seeing with UST, the benefit of the doubt as Emma called it.

Moving on......Thanks for the discussion.