FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

If IWU loses they will have, like Wheaton, 2 losses. So other teams will get to the table and take the Pool C spots and IWU will remain ahead of Wheaton until they are chosen. In that scenario, Wheaton never even gets considered because IWU is blocking them (The national committee considers the top Pool C team from each region, so 4 at a time). Wheaton would have to be ranked ahead of IWU in the region to have a shot (which is not out of the question) but that's unlikely since they will have similar resumes and IWU will have the hth win.

If IWU wins tomorrow they will be picked very early in the pool C process and whatever team is behind them in the regional rankings will get to the table and be measured against the others. There are some very detailed scenarios in the Around The Nation article by Keith McMillian on the front page or on the Pool C board under "general football" if you want to see the debate (including possible Wheaton scenarios).

[emma17]

Wheaton fans don't want IWU to lose to Elmhurst as they would not be ranked ahead of IWU in regional rankings due to the HTH loss. Albion beating Hope (very possible) and Depauw beating Wabash (highly unlikely) would put Wheaton at the table during the selection process and give them a prayer.

Also, to Wally's post. Wheaton was actually a pool C in 2010 and put into the West bracket. They hosted undefeated Coe as a 4 vs 5 matchup and then when #7 Bethel knocked off then #2 seed, they hosted the round 2 game vs Bethel.  IWU could easily be put into a similar bracket, though less likely because of how far south they are. And last year NCC was in the west bracket with Linfield, et al.

Thank you.
Not sure what tomorrow will bring, but the chance for the Thunder to sneak in seems a real possibility. After reading all the comments on the impact games/ scenarios, I'm cheering for Hope, Depauw, and maybe EC? Not sure how IWU loss is not good for WC?
Is there any other games which gives favor to Wheaton getting the nod from the selection committee?

I don't know all the possibilities but I believe another team that comes to mind that could compete for WC's spot is Wash U.

[USee]

I do know that Wheaton absolutely needs Albion to beat Hope as that puts Albion in the final RR (most likely) and gives Wheaton a win vs a regionally ranked opponent. Wheaton will have a pretty strong strength of schedule (SOS) number already but they still need a lot of help and luck to have any chance tomorrow. I think it was far more probable for Wheaton last year than it is this year.

[kiko]

Is there a scenario out there where IWU gets a home game . . . or plays away vs. anyone near to Minneapolis?  I'm hoping to see an extra football game before flying to the FAR SIDE.

Seems "regions" don't really mean much at this point.

IWU70

I believe Chinese University of Hong Kong is in the mix for a Pool B berth, so, who knows -- maybe you'll get a home game depending on how the seedings fall.   

[321GO]

I do know that Wheaton absolutely needs Albion to beat Hope as that puts Albion in the final RR (most likely) and gives Wheaton a win vs a regionally ranked opponent. Wheaton will have a pretty strong strength of schedule (SOS) number already but they still need a lot of help and luck to have any chance tomorrow. I think it was far more probable for Wheaton last year than it is this year.

Wow, after going over to the pool C board and then reading this, it's clear I haven't the foggiest idea how this committee chooses who's in and out. Guess with this senior class at Wheaton, the lose of many staters, and their miss last year, it'd be nice to see the season extended.

[ncc_fan]

Wow, after going over to the pool C board and then reading this, it's clear I haven't the foggiest idea how this committee chooses who's in and out. Guess with this senior class at Wheaton, the lose of many staters, and their miss last year, it'd be nice to see the season extended.

For starters, I'd study the list of selection criteria:
http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs#3

Then keep in mind that only 4 teams (one from each region) are considered for each Pool C spot.  Each time a team is selected to fill a Pool C spot the next at-large team in the region is "brought to the table" for discussion of the next Pool C spot.  So your team doesn't even get discussed unless it's the top remaining at-large team in its region.  In the most recent regional rankings Wheaton was sitting at 4th place among at-large teams in the North region, so unfortunately there's a good chance the Thunder won't even be discussed by the selection committee.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wow, after going over to the pool C board and then reading this, it's clear I haven't the foggiest idea how this committee chooses who's in and out. Guess with this senior class at Wheaton, the lose of many staters, and their miss last year, it'd be nice to see the season extended.

For starters, I'd study the list of selection criteria:
http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs#3

Then keep in mind that only 4 teams (one from each region) are considered for each Pool C spot.  Each time a team is selected to fill a Pool C spot the next at-large team in the region is "brought to the table" for discussion of the next Pool C spot.  So your team doesn't even get discussed unless it's the top remaining at-large team in its region.  In the most recent regional rankings Wheaton was sitting at 4th place among at-large teams in the North region, so unfortunately there's a good chance the Thunder won't even be discussed by the selection committee.

Yeah, and even losses by NCC or IWU would not be enough (since h-to-h results would still keep them ahead of the Thunder), and the loser of UMU/JCU will still be a 1-loss team.  The ONLY glimmer of hope for Wheaton to even reach the table is for Wabash to lose the Monon Bell game (unlikely; but unlikely results do sometimes happen in that extremely intense rivalry); IF Albion beats Hope that would also add a tad of hope (since it would probably add a RRO W for Wheaton, while subtracting one for IWU).  EVEN then, while Wheaton might make it to the table, they would probably be losers to the SJF/Alfred winner, but at least it could get very dicey.

IF both DePauw and Albion win (neither will, IMO), Wheaton would be well-advised to NOT have players turn in their equipment until after the selection show!

[ncc58]

*Can somebody let me know- How or Why would IWU get a home game when they would be a Pool C?  Wouldn't a conference Champion (Pool A) recipient get the home field?

Locations for games are based on the seeds of the teams in the region.  Pool A, B and C are for selection purposes.  The committee makes the bracket following the selection process.

I don't see IWU getting a home game. The only way that could happen is if John Carroll (or Mt Union) is blown out, and I don't see that happening. I think JC (or Mt Union) will be the #3 seed and Witt will be the #4.

Who is your 1 and 2 in this scenario?

I expect that Linfield, Bethel, and UWW will all win tomorrow. It would be hard to put all 3 in a western bracket, so my guess is that UWW is first in a northern bracket. UWW has been placed there before. And, NCC is #2. In my northern bracket, there would be some fantastic second round games.

[Langhorst_Ghost]

Given the availability of post-season at-large bids out there, today's Jays/Titans tilt is, in most Pool C scenarios, essentially a playoff game for IWU.  Given the tone of some of the conversation out there, you'd think that IWU has already canceled next Friday afternoon's courses for the playoff pep rally.

Sending two to the dance would obviously be a feather in the cap of a conference in an underwhelming season overall, but as a Jays fan, i would love nothing more than to sink Stormin' Norman's battleship on his home field to keep the Weenies in their dorm rooms next Saturday.

Today's battle in Bloomington is a carbon copy of last November's match-up at Langhorst, just flipped upside down - playoff spot on the line for the home team, road team playing loose with no pressure.  While I understand that the challenge ahead of them this afternoon is a steep climb, here's the scenario for how the Jays flip the script this time:

The case for EC today:

IWU will turn the ball over (12 in CCIW play), and the opportunistic EC D can be feisty (see the first half vs. NCC and Wheaton) - if the Jays can take the ball away a couple of times, set their struggling offense (297 ypg) up on a short field, or just house it themselves (see the end of the first half vs. NCC), EC will be in the game.

The Green Machine has been okay on D, not dominant by any measure - IWU has surrendered 100 opponents first downs in 7 conference games, taken the ball away only 7 times (last in the CCIW), and sits in the bottom half of the conference in points allowed.  Now, EC's offense has trouble at times getting out of first gear, but if the Jays can rev up the engine on their ground game (3rd in the CCIW), grind out some first downs to control the clock, and hit some big gainers in the play-action pass game (IWU = DEAD LAST in pass defense in the conference), a team playing loose on the road could find their confidence and score enough to trump the Titans.

IWU's senior class is impressive.  You win conference championships and playoff bids with upperclassmen (see EC of 2012) and experience, and the Greenies certainly have that.  But these Jays seniors are a prideful and scrappy bunch, and have never finished a collegiate season with a losing record (6-4, 6-4, 10-2) - which is par for the course in places like Naperville and Bloomington, but is a really big deal for a rising mid-level program like EC's for building a consistent winning attitude and culture.  Three wins in a row vs. the bottom three in the conference is what it is, but three consecutive wins nonetheless (which have been big confidence builders inside the EC locker room) - the Jays have some wind in their feathers.

Happy last conference Saturday to all CCIW'ers out there!  It's been an entertaining 2013.  Go Jays

[USee]

Great post LG. I agree with your analysis.  Tough sledding but not impossible.

[formerd3db]

IL Gator:

I agree with you.  I really think this year's playoffs are going to be good.  While perhaps there are only a couple overall across the nation that are what we would term the usual "powerhouses", it seems that there are so many teams that have risen to a higher level of talent and play this year, such that, again, I think the playoffs this year might be perhaps more competitive than in recent years among all the games.  Of course, I could be wrong as we all know strange things can happen in the playoffs as well. 

It will be interesting to see the pairings tomorrow. 

[formerd3db]

LG:
Nice post.

[hazzben]

IL Gator:

I agree with you.  I really think this year's playoffs are going to be good.  While perhaps there are only a couple overall across the nation that are what we would term the usual "powerhouses", it seems that there are so many teams that have risen to a higher level of talent and play this year, such that, again, I think the playoffs this year might be perhaps more competitive than in recent years among all the games.  Of course, I could be wrong as we all know strange things can happen in the playoffs as well. 

It will be interesting to see the pairings tomorrow.

Agree as well. There won't be any 6-4 teams in the field this year. Some weaker teams will still get in, but I think the 'bottom' teams likely to get in seem as quality as they've been. More than that, there's a feeling that it's a more wide open race. We'll see if this actually happens, but the fact we're even talking like Mount could lose to JCU and that it wouldn't be a colossal upset says something about how competitive the top teams are as well.

Should make for a great final 6 Saturdays! 

[Stagg Again!!]

IL Gator:

I agree with you.  I really think this year's playoffs are going to be good.  While perhaps there are only a couple overall across the nation that are what we would term the usual "powerhouses", it seems that there are so many teams that have risen to a higher level of talent and play this year, such that, again, I think the playoffs this year might be perhaps more competitive than in recent years among all the games.  Of course, I could be wrong as we all know strange things can happen in the playoffs as well. 

It will be interesting to see the pairings tomorrow.

Agree as well. There won't be any 6-4 teams in the field this year. Some weaker teams will still get in, but I think the 'bottom' teams likely to get in seem as quality as they've been. More than that, there's a feeling that it's a more wide open race. We'll see if this actually happens, but the fact we're even talking like Mount could lose to JCU and that it wouldn't be a colossal upset says something about how competitive the top teams are as well.

Should make for a great final 6 Saturdays!

Been thinking.  If Mount loses (BIG IF), are they in the North with UWW and NCC???  Talk about "The Bracket of Death"!

[Gregory Sager]

Given the availability of post-season at-large bids out there, today's Jays/Titans tilt is, in most Pool C scenarios, essentially a playoff game for IWU.  Given the tone of some of the conversation out there, you'd think that IWU has already canceled next Friday afternoon's courses for the playoff pep rally.

Sending two to the dance would obviously be a feather in the cap of a conference in an underwhelming season overall, but as a Jays fan, i would love nothing more than to sink Stormin' Norman's battleship on his home field to keep the Weenies in their dorm rooms next Saturday.

Today's battle in Bloomington is a carbon copy of last November's match-up at Langhorst, just flipped upside down - playoff spot on the line for the home team, road team playing loose with no pressure.  While I understand that the challenge ahead of them this afternoon is a steep climb, here's the scenario for how the Jays flip the script this time:

The case for EC today:

IWU will turn the ball over (12 in CCIW play), and the opportunistic EC D can be feisty (see the first half vs. NCC and Wheaton) - if the Jays can take the ball away a couple of times, set their struggling offense (297 ypg) up on a short field, or just house it themselves (see the end of the first half vs. NCC), EC will be in the game.

The Green Machine has been okay on D, not dominant by any measure - IWU has surrendered 100 opponents first downs in 7 conference games, taken the ball away only 7 times (last in the CCIW), and sits in the bottom half of the conference in points allowed.  Now, EC's offense has trouble at times getting out of first gear, but if the Jays can rev up the engine on their ground game (3rd in the CCIW), grind out some first downs to control the clock, and hit some big gainers in the play-action pass game (IWU = DEAD LAST in pass defense in the conference), a team playing loose on the road could find their confidence and score enough to trump the Titans.

IWU's senior class is impressive.  You win conference championships and playoff bids with upperclassmen (see EC of 2012) and experience, and the Greenies certainly have that.  But these Jays seniors are a prideful and scrappy bunch, and have never finished a collegiate season with a losing record (6-4, 6-4, 10-2) - which is par for the course in places like Naperville and Bloomington, but is a really big deal for a rising mid-level program like EC's for building a consistent winning attitude and culture.  Three wins in a row vs. the bottom three in the conference is what it is, but three consecutive wins nonetheless (which have been big confidence builders inside the EC locker room) - the Jays have some wind in their feathers.

Happy last conference Saturday to all CCIW'ers out there!  It's been an entertaining 2013.  Go Jays

Nice post, but NPU is not in "the bottom three in the conference," LGhost. The current standings -- and the likely scenario following today's action -- has a three-way tie for fourth between NPU, Augie, and Elmhurst. Don't forget: North Park beat Augie, which beat your 'jays. That's a legit three-way tie.