FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Langhorst_Ghost]

Preseason coaches' poll is in:

http://www.cciw.org/news/2014/8/12/FB_0812143229.aspx


I'm surprised at Elmhurst's place in the poll.

Surprising...definitely. 

To simplify the projection, we are basically taking about a one-game swing (in a 7 game conference schedule).  Assuming most coaches likely went chalk on NCC, Wheaton, and IWU each going 5-0 vs. the rest of the field, the swing game is NPU at EC on October 18th - Homecoming at Langhorst.

4-6 is definitely a down year by recent EC standards (4th most conference wins in the last decade), but i would have a hard time making the case for an NPU program having pushed past an Elmhurst program (that was one of 32 teams in the National playoffs two seasons ago), after 14 consecutive years of conference futility.

Love where the fighting Conways and that program are headed (really positive for the conference as a whole), but to have the Viking ship sail beyond the Bluejay waters?  Mmmm....i guess we'll see.  I do know this - Coach Planz does not care if the Jays were picked 8th, he'll have this program back where it needs to be in very short order.

Certainly some locker room bulletin board material at Langhorst Field.

[Gregory Sager]

IF IWU can find a competent QB (and it is probably not Tyler Hook), I think they are the favorite over Wheaton.  But that is a big if.  Any chance they can lure TD Conway away from his dad?

You've clearly never seen Mike Conway in person, Chuck, have you? Take a look at this video and then tell me that there's an IWU booster out there who's foolish enough to want to try to bribe this man's son and star QB away from his team.

[Pat Coleman]

The currently posted NCC roster (http://northcentralcardinals.com/roster.aspx?path=football) is certainly a preliminary list as its inconceivable that at least a few of this year's freshmen won't earn varsity jerseys.   

Unlike, say, a basketball schedule, which couldn't possibly be a preliminary list of basketball games and must be the absolute latest information, right?

[Gregory Sager]

I think losing Gallik's experience and athleticism is going to be tough to replace right way.   What has happened to Millikin?  Once a solid part of the big 4-little 4, now the Big Blue struggle to stay afloat.  Is it difficult recruiting, coaching?  Any Big Blue posters have an ideas?

I think that you're asking this question a few years too late, Mark. Millikin has now had nine straight losing seasons in CCIW play. And only one of those nine losing seasons had a record as high as 3-4 -- and that was five years ago. The Big Blue being part of the Big Four is ancient history. Heck, the Big Four concept itself is ancient history.

I can't speak for Wheaton, but suspect their back-up qb is vastly better than ours.  I'm hoping one of the incoming freshmen will be the man.  I hate to rely on a freshman qb, but it worked out pretty well for NPU last year.

Not that I'm touting T.D. Conway as the second coming of Ben Roethlisberger or anything, but keep in mind that not all freshman QBs are created equal.

I also think NPU has a chance to finish as high as 4th in the conference as the 4-6 spots are pretty tight in my estimation. Wouldn't that be something to see NPU with a winning record in the conference this year? It's not at all unreasonable.

I'm not the type to put the cart before the horse, but I agree that a fourth-place finish for the Vikings is certainly within the realm of possibility. I just get extremely nervous when people say things like this. Yes, I realize that NPU finished in a tie for fourth last season, but I'm fully aware that the program is now in a prove-it-wasn't-a-fluke situation.

The Park hasn't had a winning CCIW record in football since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House and the Beatles were working on the White Album. I'm not going to be the one to jinx them by saying that this is the year they end that streak.

Their non-conference schedule won't be a picnic so we will know early what the prospects are. they open at home vs Concordia, WI who was picked to win the NACC this year and is on a 10 game win streak. Then they travel to Alma, who is picked last in the MIAA and should be a win for the Vikings. Their final pre-season tune up is in St Louis vs Wash U, who was an NCAA playoff team last year. 1-2 is likely and 2-1 should be cause for much optimism in Chicago.

Non-conference, not pre-season. You didn't really think you'd slip that one past me, did you?

I'm not speculating at all on NPU's three non-conference contests, other than to say that at least CUW and Wash U should be excellent early-season tests that will prepare the Vikes for CCIW play better than has been the case in a lot of other seasons.

To simplify the projection, we are basically taking about a one-game swing (in a 7 game conference schedule).  Assuming most coaches likely went chalk on NCC, Wheaton, and IWU each going 5-0 vs. the rest of the field, the swing game is NPU at EC on October 18th - Homecoming at Langhorst.

4-6 is definitely a down year by recent EC standards (4th most conference wins in the last decade), but i would have a hard time making the case for an NPU program having pushed past an Elmhurst program (that was one of 32 teams in the National playoffs two seasons ago), after 14 consecutive years of conference futility.

Love where the fighting Conways and that program are headed (really positive for the conference as a whole), but to have the Viking ship sail beyond the Bluejay waters?  Mmmm....i guess we'll see.

My first thought is that I'm not sure that the preseason poll is making the case that the NPU program has "pushed past" Elmhurst. Program status is really more of a multi-year trend thing, and I don't think that anybody's pointing to anything long-term by slotting NPU one spot and five points ahead of EC in a single isolated preseason poll. Are there multi-year trends in the CCIW that are reflected in this poll? Sure. North Central being top dog is one of them. Wheaton and IWU occupying the next tier, with nobody below them particularly close, is another. And Millikin and Carthage being in the doldrums is a third multi-year trend that's reflected in this poll. But I think that you may be reading something into NPU's being picked ahead of EC that isn't really there.

Secondly, while I don't presume to speak for the CCIW's eight head coaches, I think it's reasonable to guess that they've all thoroughly studied each other's rosters from last season, and that this has informed their ballots. Anyone who's looked at Elmhurst's 2013 statistics and 2013 roster would've noticed that eight of the nine Bluejays defenders who had 30 or more tackles last season were seniors. That's a lot of defensive production lost. By contrast, North Park returns nine starters on defense. EC and NPU are more closely matched when it comes to offense in terms of returning players, but Elmhurst is returning players who were on a pretty anemic offense that ranked seventh in the league in most key categories in 2013. Granted, NPU was sixth in most of those categories, but the gap between the two in terms of stats such as offensive touchdowns and yards per game was pretty wide. And I'm guessing that the coaches feel that the gap between T.D. Conway on the one hand and the Camillieri/Stelzriede combo on the other is a wide one. Again, this is all just speculation on my part. I'm not saying that I agree with it at all.

I do know this - Coach Planz does not care if the Jays were picked 8th, he'll have this program back where it needs to be in very short order.

So you're predicting another league championship for Elmhurst in the near future? Can we pin you down on just how far off "very short order" happens to be in this case?

[Kovo]

I think losing Gallik's experience and athleticism is going to be tough to replace right way.   What has happened to Millikin?  Once a solid part of the big 4-little 4, now the Big Blue struggle to stay afloat.  Is it difficult recruiting, coaching?  Any Big Blue posters have an ideas?

I think that you're asking this question a few years too late, Mark. Millikin has now had nine straight losing seasons in CCIW play. And only one of those nine losing seasons had a record as high as 3-4 -- and that was five years ago. The Big Blue being part of the Big Four is ancient history. Heck, the Big Four concept itself is ancient history.

I can't speak for Wheaton, but suspect their back-up qb is vastly better than ours.  I'm hoping one of the incoming freshmen will be the man.  I hate to rely on a freshman qb, but it worked out pretty well for NPU last year.

Not that I'm touting T.D. Conway as the second coming of Ben Roethlisberger or anything, but keep in mind that not all freshman QBs are created equal.

I also think NPU has a chance to finish as high as 4th in the conference as the 4-6 spots are pretty tight in my estimation. Wouldn't that be something to see NPU with a winning record in the conference this year? It's not at all unreasonable.

I'm not the type to put the cart before the horse, but I agree that a fourth-place finish for the Vikings is certainly within the realm of possibility. I just get extremely nervous when people say things like this. Yes, I realize that NPU finished in a tie for fourth last season, but I'm fully aware that the program is now in a prove-it-wasn't-a-fluke situation.

The Park hasn't had a winning CCIW record in football since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House and the Beatles were working on the White Album. I'm not going to be the one to jinx them by saying that this is the year they end that streak.

Their non-conference schedule won't be a picnic so we will know early what the prospects are. they open at home vs Concordia, WI who was picked to win the NACC this year and is on a 10 game win streak. Then they travel to Alma, who is picked last in the MIAA and should be a win for the Vikings. Their final pre-season tune up is in St Louis vs Wash U, who was an NCAA playoff team last year. 1-2 is likely and 2-1 should be cause for much optimism in Chicago.

Non-conference, not pre-season. You didn't really think you'd slip that one past me, did you?

I'm not speculating at all on NPU's three non-conference contests, other than to say that at least CUW and Wash U should be excellent early-season tests that will prepare the Vikes for CCIW play better than has been the case in a lot of other seasons.

To simplify the projection, we are basically taking about a one-game swing (in a 7 game conference schedule).  Assuming most coaches likely went chalk on NCC, Wheaton, and IWU each going 5-0 vs. the rest of the field, the swing game is NPU at EC on October 18th - Homecoming at Langhorst.

4-6 is definitely a down year by recent EC standards (4th most conference wins in the last decade), but i would have a hard time making the case for an NPU program having pushed past an Elmhurst program (that was one of 32 teams in the National playoffs two seasons ago), after 14 consecutive years of conference futility.

Love where the fighting Conways and that program are headed (really positive for the conference as a whole), but to have the Viking ship sail beyond the Bluejay waters?  Mmmm....i guess we'll see.

My first thought is that I'm not sure that the preseason poll is making the case that the NPU program has "pushed past" Elmhurst. Program status is really more of a multi-year trend thing, and I don't think that anybody's pointing to anything long-term by slotting NPU one spot and five points ahead of EC in a single isolated preseason poll. Are there multi-year trends in the CCIW that are reflected in this poll? Sure. North Central being top dog is one of them. Wheaton and IWU occupying the next tier, with nobody below them particularly close, is another. And Millikin and Carthage being in the doldrums is a third multi-year trend that's reflected in this poll. But I think that you may be reading something into NPU's being picked ahead of EC that isn't really there.

Secondly, while I don't presume to speak for the CCIW's eight head coaches, I think it's reasonable to guess that they've all thoroughly studied each other's rosters from last season, and that this has informed their ballots. Anyone who's looked at Elmhurst's 2013 statistics and 2013 roster would've noticed that eight of the nine Bluejays defenders who had 30 or more tackles last season were seniors. That's a lot of defensive production lost. By contrast, North Park returns nine starters on defense. EC and NPU are more closely matched when it comes to offense in terms of returning players, but Elmhurst is returning players who were on a pretty anemic offense that ranked seventh in the league in most key categories in 2013. Granted, NPU was sixth in most of those categories, but the gap between the two in terms of stats such as offensive touchdowns and yards per game was pretty wide. And I'm guessing that the coaches feel that the gap between T.D. Conway on the one hand and the Camillieri/Stelzriede combo on the other is a wide one. Again, this is all just speculation on my part. I'm not saying that I agree with it at all.

I do know this - Coach Planz does not care if the Jays were picked 8th, he'll have this program back where it needs to be in very short order.

So you're predicting another league championship for Elmhurst in the near future? Can we pin you down on just how far off "very short order" happens to be in this case?

Which begs the question.  Which program is closer to a CCIW championship right now----NPU or EC?  Anyone want to go out on a limb?

[Gregory Sager]

Don't look at me.

[markerickson]

I reiterate, slow down on all this East-Side Viking promotion.  I cannot believe beyond a preponderance of the current evidence that NP will beat Millikin and win at least three conference games.  If it does happen, I will be very excited for Conway 3.0.

[USee]

Based on what I see NPU is the favorite over Millikin and Carthage in those games (both in Chicago) the @Augie and @Elmhurst games are less than a 7pt favorite either way. If NPU can stay healthy (that's a big if....those 2 big road Non-cons and games vs Wheaton and NCC to start the CCIW slate) they can win all 4 of those in my opinion. I don't see them as a favorite vs Augie or Elmhurst but they are vs the other two. TD Conway is the real deal at QB and with 9 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, they have continuity and will be a much better team this year than last IMO. They haven't had 2 players remotely as talented as TD and Dakota in the last 10 years and they aren't the only ones. The talent and turnaround at North Park is real guys, and it's going to take the next step this year.

[Gotberg]

Based on what I see NPU is the favorite over Millikin and Carthage in those games (both in Chicago) the @Augie and @Elmhurst games are less than a 7pt favorite either way. If NPU can stay healthy (that's a big if....those 2 big road Non-cons and games vs Wheaton and NCC to start the CCIW slate) they can win all 4 of those in my opinion. I don't see them as a favorite vs Augie or Elmhurst but they are vs the other two. TD Conway is the real deal at QB and with 9 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, they have continuity and will be a much better team this year than last IMO. They haven't had 2 players remotely as talented as TD and Dakota in the last 10 years and they aren't the only ones. The talent and turnaround at North Park is real guys, and it's going to take the next step this year.

Usee - are you aware of some of the players that are headed to NPU? 

[79jaybird]

Greg, right on. I am just miffed by how MU has just completed fallen into another time zone.  A couple of my HS teammates went to Millikin and we always talked about how strong the Big Blue were at that time.  But, like the tides they come and go I guess. 

Some of Greg's points are also why I think Elmhurst is still going to struggle against some of the upper eschilon teams of the conference.  You win with Srs and upper classmen (typically).  Can Elmhurst get back to 6-4 and 7-3 in the near future. Sure, that is possible.  Will it happen this year,  hmm remains to be seen.  I do think there is still a lot of reason(s) to think Elmhurst can continue to build up a program, rather than fall apart (i.e. Carthage '04-present).

[Gregory Sager]

North Park held Media Day for the football team this morning. I spoke with Mike Conway afterwards, and the final tally is 98 players in camp, of whom 38 are returnees and 60 are newbies (43 freshmen, 17 transfers). Some of those transfers will get plugged in immediately and will be expected to be impact players. There will be 18 seniors on this team, which is a pretty high total for NPU historically in terms of a senior football class, but the junior class (Scott Pethtel's final recruiting class) is particularly small. It will take another couple of recruiting cycles for the program to get to the place where Mike wants it in terms of numbers.

The team picture was taken this morning on the steps of Old Main, which I highly applaud for the sake of tradition.

I'm psyched to get my first look at the Vikings in their upcoming scrimmage (which I have been asked not to publicize).

I reiterate, slow down on all this East-Side Viking promotion.  I cannot believe beyond a preponderance of the current evidence that NP will beat Millikin and win at least three conference games.

Really, Mark? You've replaced Augustana with Millikin as your designated football bugbear? You were better off being afraid of Augie.

Millikin, as I said in my post yesterday, has been in a serious funk for almost a decade now. Last season the Big Blue went 2-8, 1-6. Although Millikin does return most of its personnel from last season (aside from the O-line, which appears to only return one starter), three of the four Big Blue who made the All-CCIW team last year have departed -- one of them being Stunning Sean Dunning, the CCIW's leading rusher last year by a whopping margin of almost 400 yards. Dunning accounted for 34% of MU's yardage last season and 72% of MU's touchdowns.

North Park has to respect each and every CCIW opponent it faces, because, unlike NCC, the Vikings aren't talented and deep enough to beat a team like Millikin just by showing up. But there are CCIW opponents with whom NPU should be more concerned than MU.

Based on what I see NPU is the favorite over Millikin and Carthage in those games (both in Chicago) the @Augie and @Elmhurst games are less than a 7pt favorite either way. If NPU can stay healthy (that's a big if....those 2 big road Non-cons and games vs Wheaton and NCC to start the CCIW slate) they can win all 4 of those in my opinion. I don't see them as a favorite vs Augie or Elmhurst but they are vs the other two. TD Conway is the real deal at QB and with 9 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, they have continuity and will be a much better team this year than last IMO. They haven't had 2 players remotely as talented as TD and Dakota in the last 10 years and they aren't the only ones. The talent and turnaround at North Park is real guys, and it's going to take the next step this year.

I think that this is an honest appraisal of NPU's chances this season, Obi-Wan.

[USee]

Based on what I see NPU is the favorite over Millikin and Carthage in those games (both in Chicago) the @Augie and @Elmhurst games are less than a 7pt favorite either way. If NPU can stay healthy (that's a big if....those 2 big road Non-cons and games vs Wheaton and NCC to start the CCIW slate) they can win all 4 of those in my opinion. I don't see them as a favorite vs Augie or Elmhurst but they are vs the other two. TD Conway is the real deal at QB and with 9 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, they have continuity and will be a much better team this year than last IMO. They haven't had 2 players remotely as talented as TD and Dakota in the last 10 years and they aren't the only ones. The talent and turnaround at North Park is real guys, and it's going to take the next step this year.

Usee - are you aware of some of the players that are headed to NPU?

I don't think it really matters who the freshman are at NPU ( which is the first time that statement could be confidently made in decades) as much as the returners.   9 returning starters on offense and 7 on defense.  And 18 transfers from a coach like Conway who appeared to have a good idea what he is doing.  You win in the CCIW with upper classmen and NPU has their fair share. If they can finish 5-5 or better this year, which will be no small task, that will be a strong sign the Viking ship is headed toward relevance. 

[markerickson]

NPU has not pushed past any CCIW program, including Augie and Millikin.

[Mr. Ypsi]

NPU has not pushed past any CCIW program, including Augie and Millikin.

That may or may not be true, but Millikin has definitely plummeted below NPU.  Likewise, Carthage.  Augie and Elmhurst are the key games in the conference.  I think they'll finish 4-3 in the CCIW - 5-2 if IWU doesn'r come up with an adequate QB.

[NCF]

With football right around the corner, will anyone be running the CCIW pick-ems?