FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

Yup, MU and Carthage win, NCC goes down.  A was surprised how mortal NCC looked against WI-SP.  A strange final Saturday before CCIW play begins.

NCC still the class of the CCIW, with WC and IWU fighting it out for 2nd.  IWU has not looked particularly good these last two games, though 2-1 is respectable.  We've been going 3-0 in Spetember for years.  Only WC finishing 3-0 before conference play this season.  From what I've seen so far, I'd be surprised if IWU finishes better than 7-3 this year.  Their defence against the run really needs some improvement.  At least more games to improve before they have to face WC and NCC on the road late in the season.  Let's hope for improvement.

IWU70

[AndOne]

 Numbers tell the story. 

* UWSP 330 yards passing. TWO receivers with over 100 yards.
* NCC 9 of 26 passing with FOUR INTS!
* UWSP 77 plays, NCC 55 plays
* Time of possession-----> UWSP 39:15, NCC 20:46

The Cardinals need to play some form of pass defense other than Swiss Cheese.
They also need to find a QB who can stand in the pocket for more than a second, and who can be more accurate than a Pee Wee player.

It appears the Cards may now need to run the table in conference play in order to appear in the playoffs. 

[Naperick]

Numbers tell the story. 

* UWSP 330 yards passing. TWO receivers with over 100 yards.
* NCC 9 of 26 passing with FOUR INTS!
* UWSP 77 plays, NCC 55 plays
* Time of possession-----> UWSP 39:15, NCC 20:46

The Cardinals need to play some form of pass defense other than Swiss Cheese.
They also need to find a QB who can stand in the pocket for more than a second, and who can be more accurate than a Pee Wee player.

It appears the Cards may now need to run the table in conference play in order to appear in the playoffs.

Unless they win a tie breaker with 1 CCIW loss like 2012.   
I'm sure the Cardinals will be fine.

[USee]

I am surprised the Cards only gave the ball to Ryan Kent 12 times. Did he get hurt? The QB's had more running plays than Kent? That doesn't seem right. Also, NCC run/pass ratio was 53/47 when they are usually much better at 60/40. 1 of 9 on 3rd downs doesn't help keep the offense on the field either. Tough game on the road against what will likely be a top 3 WIAC opponent. They now get to test the theory that a tougher NC slate prepares them for the CCIW.

[kiko]

I am surprised the Cards only gave the ball to Ryan Kent 12 times. Did he get hurt? The QB's had more running plays than Kent? That doesn't seem right. Also, NCC run/pass ratio was 53/47 when they are usually much better at 60/40. 1 of 9 on 3rd downs doesn't help keep the offense on the field either. Tough game on the road against what will likely be a top 3 WIAC opponent. They now get to test the theory that a tougher NC slate prepares them for the CCIW.

The plays as called probably held to that 60/40 ratio.  But with a QB whose tendency is to tuck it and turn upfield rather quickly, the ratio gets skewed, and you end up with the higher number of QB carries that you referenced.  That said, Kent needs to get the ball more.  As best I can tell, he was not hurt and was in throughout the game.

On your second comment, the Cards are 58-5 in the conference over the past nine years, and 27-1 in the last four years.  With all due respect to its conference foes, the theory is more that a tougher non-conference slate better prepares them for top-twenty playoff opponents.

That's not to dismiss conference opponents -- just to say that in recent years the Cardinals have generally been a notch above.  If they play like they did this weekend in upcoming weeks, though, playoff opponents are not something North Central will have to worry about.

[USee]

On the 60/40: the point is NCC is 60 run and 40 pass when they are humming.   QB tuck and runs are presumably pass plays and would bolster my argument. 

On your "top 20" playoff comments I would say the results are inconclusive at best. A 4-5 playoff record the last 5 years vs top 20 teams with one trip to the semis and 2 trips to the quarters is decent but you were left out of the playoffs once in that stretch for losing early to ONU.   Well see if that happens again.  Actually would have happened in 2011 too if Swider hadn't gift wrapped the AQ for you. 

I am fairly sure the goal of every CCIW head coach is to win the CCIW first and succeed in the playoffs second.

[AndOne]

NCC falls 8 places to #13. Wheaton stays at #19 in the new Top 25 poll.

[kiko]

On the 60/40: the point is NCC is 60 run and 40 pass when they are humming.   QB tuck and runs are presumably pass plays and would bolster my argument. 

On your "top 20" playoff comments I would say the results are inconclusive at best. A 4-5 playoff record the last 5 years vs top 20 teams with one trip to the semis and 2 trips to the quarters is decent but you were left out of the playoffs once in that stretch for losing early to ONU.   Well see if that happens again.  Actually would have happened in 2011 too if Swider hadn't gift wrapped the AQ for you. 

I am fairly sure the goal of every CCIW head coach is to win the CCIW first and succeed in the playoffs second.

On the 60/40: you are correct.  Math is hard.

On the top 20 comment, I'm not exactly sure what your point is as the Cards have only really upgraded their out of conference schedule in the past three years.  Not sure I'd look at five years of history given that this is the case.  I would say that the effect of the tougher schedule would be inconclusive during that span irrespective of results due to a small sample size.

Perhaps my aspirations are different from those inside the program, or my philosophy is different from yours.  But I will happily take on the risk of missing the playoffs by playing a tougher slate.  In fact, I expect that sort of an approach will inevitably come back to bite you here and there.  (As it did in the year they lost to Ohio Northern, though that was a single strong opponent among their three games, and as it may do this year when their slate was solid across the board.)

But I also think this approach makes the program stronger in the long run.  My aspiration is not for the Cardinals to make it to Round 2 of the playoffs on a consistent basis -- it is for them to stack up better against the teams that are routinely playing in the Stagg Bowl.  There will be bumps along the way if that is going to happen, but generally speaking, losses to teams like Ohio Northern or Point, which are losses to very good teams, are also a sign that you're not ready to make that leap.

It's funny that you mention Coach Swider gift-wrapping the AQ to the Cardinals a couple of years ago.  He did that because he valued a share of the conference title more than a potential playoff run.  I thought it was the wrong choice then and still think it was the wrong choice today.

[02 Warhawk]

Since I didn't watch the NCC/UWSP game, I had a quick question for those who did. Obviously NCC's QBs really struggled....just 9 completions to 4 ints. However, Kent gashed UWSP defense averaging just under 9 yards per carry. With that being said, I'm shocked Kent only had 12 carries. Seems like NCC did UWSP a huge favor by passing the ball on Saturday. Are the stats deceiving? Or did NCC panic a bit with the play calling?

Kent vs. P'ville: 22 carries (8.0 ypc). NCC wins
Kent vs. UWSP: 12 carries (8.9 ypc). NCC loses

Give the rock to Kent!!!! 

[CardinalAlum]

Big news out of NCC this morning regarding the next football coach:


http://northcentralcardinals.com/news/2014/8/20/FB_0820144910.aspx

[robertgoulet]

Big news out of NCC this morning regarding the next football coach:


http://northcentralcardinals.com/news/2014/8/20/FB_0820144910.aspx

Beat me to it this morning. Looks like 2014 will be the end of an era at NCC.

[USee]

On the 60/40: the point is NCC is 60 run and 40 pass when they are humming.   QB tuck and runs are presumably pass plays and would bolster my argument. 

On your "top 20" playoff comments I would say the results are inconclusive at best. A 4-5 playoff record the last 5 years vs top 20 teams with one trip to the semis and 2 trips to the quarters is decent but you were left out of the playoffs once in that stretch for losing early to ONU.   Well see if that happens again.  Actually would have happened in 2011 too if Swider hadn't gift wrapped the AQ for you. 

I am fairly sure the goal of every CCIW head coach is to win the CCIW first and succeed in the playoffs second.

On the 60/40: you are correct.  Math is hard.

On the top 20 comment, I'm not exactly sure what your point is as the Cards have only really upgraded their out of conference schedule in the past three years.  Not sure I'd look at five years of history given that this is the case.  I would say that the effect of the tougher schedule would be inconclusive during that span irrespective of results due to a small sample size.

Perhaps my aspirations are different from those inside the program, or my philosophy is different from yours.  But I will happily take on the risk of missing the playoffs by playing a tougher slate.  In fact, I expect that sort of an approach will inevitably come back to bite you here and there.  (As it did in the year they lost to Ohio Northern, though that was a single strong opponent among their three games, and as it may do this year when their slate was solid across the board.)

But I also think this approach makes the program stronger in the long run.  My aspiration is not for the Cardinals to make it to Round 2 of the playoffs on a consistent basis -- it is for them to stack up better against the teams that are routinely playing in the Stagg Bowl.  There will be bumps along the way if that is going to happen, but generally speaking, losses to teams like Ohio Northern or Point, which are losses to very good teams, are also a sign that you're not ready to make that leap.

It's funny that you mention Coach Swider gift-wrapping the AQ to the Cardinals a couple of years ago.  He did that because he valued a share of the conference title more than a potential playoff run.  I thought it was the wrong choice then and still think it was the wrong choice today.

As far as scheduling, I agree with everything you said and I personally prefer that approach. I just know not every CCIW head coach thinks that way.

As far as the AQ from 2012--no comment! 

[USee]

Since I didn't watch the NCC/UWSP game, I had a quick question for those who did. Obviously NCC's QBs really struggled....just 9 completions to 4 ints. However, Kent gashed UWSP defense averaging just under 9 yards per carry. With that being said, I'm shocked Kent only had 12 carries. Seems like NCC did UWSP a huge favor by passing the ball on Saturday. Are the stats deceiving? Or did NCC panic a bit with the play calling?

Kent vs. P'ville: 22 carries (8.0 ypc). NCC wins
Kent vs. UWSP: 12 carries (8.9 ypc). NCC loses

Give the rock to Kent!!!! 

Exactly my point. For whatever reason NCC has had some losses in recent years where they get out of their 60/40 run mode and try and throw the ball more times than usual vs running it 60% or more. It hasn't happened very often (v. Redlands, v Linfield, v Wheaton) but its usually against teams having success passing the ball against NCC. There are clear examples of NCC pounding teams who throw it around effectively (v UWP 2x) but the formula for a bad loss has often been running it less and relying on a less than effective QB against a team throwing it a lot. I don't know why but that seems to be the pattern.

[USee]

Big news out of NCC this morning regarding the next football coach:


http://northcentralcardinals.com/news/2014/8/20/FB_0820144910.aspx

I always knew Thorne was modeling his program after Mt Union.....I guess we can just call them Mt Union-lite.

[Kovo]

Since I didn't watch the NCC/UWSP game, I had a quick question for those who did. Obviously NCC's QBs really struggled....just 9 completions to 4 ints. However, Kent gashed UWSP defense averaging just under 9 yards per carry. With that being said, I'm shocked Kent only had 12 carries. Seems like NCC did UWSP a huge favor by passing the ball on Saturday. Are the stats deceiving? Or did NCC panic a bit with the play calling?

Kent vs. P'ville: 22 carries (8.0 ypc). NCC wins
Kent vs. UWSP: 12 carries (8.9 ypc). NCC loses

Give the rock to Kent!!!! 

Exactly my point. For whatever reason NCC has had some losses in recent years where they get out of their 60/40 run mode and try and throw the ball more times than usual vs running it 60% or more. It hasn't happened very often (v. Redlands, v Linfield, v Wheaton) but its usually against teams having success passing the ball against NCC. There are clear examples of NCC pounding teams who throw it around effectively (v UWP 2x) but the formula for a bad loss has often been running it less and relying on a less than effective QB against a team throwing it a lot. I don't know why but that seems to be the pattern.

IMHO, and as someone who has watched virtually every game all be it on the net, it appears to me that JT and his staff try to work on areas at need improvement in the nonconference games.  Anyone who watched the UW-P game and the 1st half of St. N. could see that we need to get our QB going, and that may have been part of the plan.  Usually, it works---sometimes it backfires such as losses to ONU, Redlands, UW-L, Concordia and now UW-SP.

However, don't be shocked to see that 60/40 become 70/30 this year or to see a new QB this week.  The common denominator with those nonconference losses is that NC usually identifies the problem, and finds a way to work around it before the CCIW schedule.  I don't think that we would have been better off handing the ball to Ryan Kent 30 times and winning the game, only to find out in the 2nd half of a tight ball game for the Bell, that we can't throw it. 

In (John) Thorne we trust!!!