FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Please, spare us all the attitude of martyrdom. I don't "control the narrative" on this or any other board, and we all know it.

[Gregory Sager]

Mike Conway is making sure that the team stays positive, and that starts with the coaching staff. Here's what he had to say today on NPU Weekly:

"We're figuring it out. I'm not down on my players. I love our kids. I'm coaching for the kids, I'm not coaching for myself or this ego thing that coaches go through. We're building character in young people's lives, and that's what it's all about. You know, I'd be a phony if I didn't believe that, if I'd be upset or down on my kids, because they're giving it what they've got. And we just gotta keep working and fighting and believing in the kids and believing in each other. And that's the way we're going to do it."

It's not just platitudes. I've seen coaches mentally shut down when things get bad, to the point where they stop coaching on the sidelines and just stand there marking time waiting for the clock to run out. I don't foresee a Mike Conway coaching staff ever doing that.

[Green Jello Shots]

I think EC beats IWU at home this weekend, unless Warner is back from mono and playing QB again.  Titan D has been pretty bad since the first game.  Really no containment at all on the AC QB this last weekend, no one stayed home on the back side.  We'll see, but the Titans really need a gut check, as they are very unlikely to beat WC and NCC away.  Still looks like 5-5 to me, but we'll see.  Saturday was truly horrible, very disappointing.

At least basketball practices have started. 

IWU70

IWU70 - So you're blaming the Titan defense for the loss to Augie??? The score was 7-2! This wasn't a baseball or a soccer game. The Titan D held Augustana to 1 touchdown and scored 2 points of their own. IWU may have had a lot of problems Saturday, but defense definitely wasn't one of them! All the Titan offense had to do was score 6 measly points and IWU would have won.

The Titan D is 2nd in the CCIW in scoring defense (despite the IWU punt team giving up 21 points this season) and 2nd in the CCIW in sacks. The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season, but overall has done a solid job. They have given up a combined 14 total points over the last 2 games, 7 of which came on a blocked punt that got taken to the house. They shouldn't be the cause of your disappointment with IWU.

[Son of Tailgater]

Wheaton derails NCC this week. I'll say it and deal with the consequences of not explaining my prediction. All four of the games really could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

[AndOne]

Wheaton derails NCC this week. I'll say it and deal with the consequences of not explaining my prediction. All four of the games really could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

A small wager on your assertion, Son of T?

[USee]

When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

[Kovo]

Wheaton derails NCC this week. I'll say it and deal with the consequences of not explaining my prediction. All four of the games really could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

A small wager on your assertion, Son of T?

Why small?  If Son of T is so confident let's make it a "real" wager!

[Kovo]

Okay Sager, you win...you always do (in a will ferrell as robert goulet voice)   

What do I know anyways? You're the professional, continue to control the narrative on your board.

Its news to me!   I didn't know that this was Greg's board. 

Greg--what did you do with Pat?  I thought he controlled the website.  This is all so confusing.  Am I still permitted to post all of my unabashed unashamed NCC propaganda or does Gregory have to approve it?

[CardinalAlum]

IWU70 - So you're blaming the Titan defense for the loss to Augie??? The score was 7-2! This wasn't a baseball or a soccer game. The Titan D held Augustana to 1 touchdown and scored 2 points of their own. IWU may have had a lot of problems Saturday, but defense definitely wasn't one of them! All the Titan offense had to do was score 6 measly points and IWU would have won.
The Titan D is 2nd in the CCIW in scoring defense (despite the IWU punt team giving up 21 points this season) and 2nd in the CCIW in sacks. The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season, but overall has done a solid job. They have given up a combined 14 total points over the last 2 games, 7 of which came on a blocked punt that got taken to the house. They shouldn't be the cause of your disappointment with IWU.

What about the Carthage game?   

[Augie6]

When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

I think one of the other things you have to look at is who are the teams these stats were generated against.  Looking at the records of the teams Wheaton and NCC has played, NCC's opponents are not great at a combined 17-19 record.  However, Wheaton's opponents have been extremely weak at a combined 8-28.  NCC's defensive statistics don't look as bad when you consider that they played two ranked teams who are averaging 33 pts (UWP) and 28 pts (UWSP) per game this season.  I don't disagree with your assessment of what each team needs to do to win the game, but I do think some of the numbers (particularly Wheaton's defensive statistics) are skewed based on the level of competition they have played so far. 

[USee]

When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

I think one of the other things you have to look at is who are the teams these stats were generated against.  Looking at the records of the teams Wheaton and NCC has played, NCC's opponents are not great at a combined 17-19 record.  However, Wheaton's opponents have been extremely weak at a combined 8-28.  NCC's defensive statistics don't look as bad when you consider that they played two ranked teams who are averaging 33 pts (UWP) and 28 pts (UWSP) per game this season.  I don't disagree with your assessment of what each team needs to do to win the game, but I do think some of the numbers (particularly Wheaton's defensive statistics) are skewed based on the level of competition they have played so far.

The numbers are not skewed, they just don't tell the whole story, which was my point. I think Wheaton is pretty good on defense and good enough to beat 9 of the 10 teams they play. They are probably good enough to beat most teams in the country but will struggle against top 10 teams, maybe top 15 teams. The analysis on NCC is from this years data but it holds for the most recent years. They are a 60/40 run-pass team that relies on the big play. Wheaton will have a hard time scoring points Saturday in my opinion, based on the offense I have seen the last 3 weeks. If they can limit the big play and tackle well, then turnovers are the avenue to give them a chance.

[79jaybird]

I think IWU will have a better showing this weekend vs. Elmhurst. If I know Norm, he is going to have an intense week of practice, and be ready for us.  I also think the key for IWU is going to be their QB and RB play.  Just like as Greg alluded to with the changes at the half,   the key for Elmhurst is going be their LB play. 

[79jaybird]

L-Ghost is a former teammate, classmate, etc.  and sometimes he let's his nationalistic Jays spirit get the best of him.  We played on some bad Jays teams and have coached/broadcast some of the lower points of recent EC football.  Thus, when the team has some success,  he lets it all loose in a fury.  The effect of this fury sometimes is overzealous gloating. 

Overall  I know L-Ghost knows football and strategies very well.  He (often) doesn't come across on this board appropriately.

[AndOne]

Wheaton derails NCC this week. I'll say it and deal with the consequences of not explaining my prediction. All four of the games really could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

A small wager on your assertion, Son of T?

Why small?  If Son of T is so confident let's make it a "real" wager!

Alas, but the weekly allowance the Queen gives this poor knave is but a pittance. 

[emma17]

The NCC - Wheaton game is very intriguing- thanks for the excellent stats Usee.

As an outsider, I tend to think Wheaton has a good chance this year because they have had better than average success in controlling NCC's running game.  Forcing NCC to pass, this year in particular, seems to be the best way to limit the NCC offense.  Am I off base on this?