FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is. 

[wally_wabash]

Division III kicking is such a crap shoot.  If you give every coach in D3 the choice to play the 60 minutes out and see what happens, or line up to kick a 41-yard field goal- make it and win, miss it and lose- there can't be more than ten coaches in D3 that would take the field goal attempt.  I don't think it's particularly fair to look at kicking stats and say one side has an advantage over the other.  The sample sizes are too small and in particular the sample size of scenarios that even come close to replicating "if it comes down to a field goal at the end" hypotheticals where we believe kicking matters most are essentially non-existent.   

I agree with this for the most part. I don't think I agree about the QB position. I think they have a standout player in Bowers. I just think they waited too long to decide that and then he got hurt.  Peltz could be that player but he played baseball in the spring and has been slow to catch on with the offense. Remember, Peltz turned down a scholarship to North Dakota State (the FCS 2x national Champion) and he played QB at Wheaton North, sharing the position with Northwestern freshman QB Clayton Thorson. So he has plenty of talent.

I guess for me, this doesn't quite pass the smell test.  Jake Knott played baseball (catcher of all things) at Wabash and 11,000+ yards and 120+ TDs later, he's the best QB that ever played there and it isn't close.  If Peltz is the best QB they have and you've got all of summer camp plus six layups before the biggest game of your season, you have to let him play and learn on the fly, don't you? 

[USee]

Unless you have a kid like Bowers, yes.

[Mugsy]

Bummed.  Instead of going to the Wheaton vs. NCC game Saturday night, I get to spend the day at North Park homecoming festivities.  (wife's 20th reunion).

No intended slap to NPU poster's, as I likely know a whole bunch of people at the game, cookouts and reunion gatherings.  But I will be missing one of the major games of the year, against the primary rival, and I'm not really huge into social gatherings.

[Langhorst_Ghost]

While the Main Event in the CCIW is definitely along the West Bound Metra line in DuPage County Saturday night, the undercard in Bloomington is definitely intriguing.

It's been 3 decades since the Jays rolled back up I-55 with a W from Tucci.  I was a part of coaching staff that beat the Stormin Normans at Langhorst (2005 and 2006) and called the playoff clincher in 2012, but B-Town has been a hex on the Birds since the Reagan administration.

I am optimistic that the fortunes could change this weekend.  With Greenies' QB situation in flux, Bolden still nursing his recent recovery from surgery, and Klein still finding his groove back from a concussion, the planets seem aligned for the Jays to turn the tide.

Simply comparing common opponents (not the best measuring stick, but worth discussing) - the Titans 12 combined points v. Augie and Carthage @ home compare to EC's 52 (in regulation time...66 with the OT) v. the Vikes and Redmen.  With MU and NPU both at the back end of the standings, the Jays and Titans have played incredibly comparable conference schedules up to now.

Clear statistical advantages seem to favor the Titans pass game by a wide margin and the Jays ground attack by a measurably significant gap.  Total yardage is roughly even on average v. 2 common opponents and another similar.  In many of the "in-between" stats, IWU and EC are remarkably similar (3rd down % and first downs earned/allowed).  Where i find a big break is in penalties (EC least penalized, IWU is 7th with nearly twice as many infractions as the Jays) and in T.O.P. (EC tops in the conference in sustaining drives, IWU in the middle of the pack, controlling the ball for less than half the time).

Key will be the versatility of the Jays offense.  Joe Cam's confidence at quarterback is rising in his second year as starter (and fully healthy this year), and he will need to continue to take pressure off (via his legs and arm) of the bruising zone scheme ground game (Josh Williams averaging 5.5 on 163 carries) to move the sticks.  Garvey and Roth have both been terrific for the Greenie D, and with Klein back in the mix, a defense allowing just 18.2/game in conference should be a formidable opponent for the Jays much improved offense.

I look for a tight, physical game Saturday afternoon, probably a lower scoring affair, but with a spirited effort from a confident Jays group to change their fortunes in Bloomington.  Should be fun.

[emma17]

As an unbiased and interested outside observer, here's a couple of Brass Bell thoughts...

- When I saw Wheaton in August and they were rotating three QBs and struggled to move it against Wabash, my thought then was that Wheaton would fairly quickly settle on one guy and settle on one style of offense and that they'd be fine.  That they haven't done so here by late October isn't a good sign- particularly given how different their options at that position are and how different the plan of attack is depending on who is taking the snaps.  Wheaton's offense has been so-so (96th in total offense, 91st scoring offense) but that's against a schedule that has yet to feature a defense ranked higher than 114th.  The caliber of defense steps up dramatically on Saturday, and I have concerns about how well Wheaton can move the ball and score points (in the absence of turnovers, which I'll get to in a second). 

- North Central grades out a bit better offensively, but their QBs have had a bit of the turnover bug.  No good when going against a good defense like Wheaton's.  The kinds of mistakes that cost them a result against Stevens Point, if repeated on Saturday, will cost them again.  It's not even the 9-26 passing that is the problem in that game.  It's the four giveaways.  And when you're playing a team that has struggled offensively, you can bail them out by giving the ball away.  You can play defense in a way that should surrender maybe 10-14 points, but add in those 4 turnovers and that same defensive effort can easily yield 28-35 points- which costs you wins. 

Prediction: North Central's quarterback issues can be catastrophic if whoever they use has a bad game and throws it to dudes who are not on his team.  That's not a given though.  Wheaton's quarterback issues I don't think can be solved.  If somebody hasn't stood out by this time, then they probably just don't have a standout player at that position.  And on that note, I expect that North Central will use Ryan Kent extensively, not take a ton of chances in the passing game (Sorenson, who is awesome, notwithstanding), and dare the Thunder to figure out how to drive the field.  Field position should favor North Central in that situation, and they should be able to grind out a win here.  Something like 24-10 I think.

Wally- your prediction is perfectly logical and should play out. Unless the NCC staff goes "Linfield" - ignoring their advantage in the running game.

[USee]

From today's Triple Take:

"Ryan's take: No. 12 North Central at No. 19 Wheaton. In the ATN Podcast this past week, there was some talk about how Wheaton has dispelled some of its early-season hiccups and shown that it truly is a Top 25 team. Sorry Thunder fans, but I'm not yet convinced. The conference slate so far has consisted of the bottom three CCIW teams, and two of the nonconference opponents currently have a combined record of 1-11. That means two things: 1) I don't know that Wheaton is ready to face a North Central team that became battle-tested in nonconference play (though the Cardinals' CCIW games have also been against a weak slate); and 2) a loss here by Wheaton, coupled with that nonconference schedule, could mean that the team lacks the strength of schedule to be a real Pool C contender. For North Central, a loss Saturday would be its second of the year, also creating a gray area on the Pool C front. Perhaps the playoffs are in the back of these players' minds – or perhaps just the fact that it's the Little Brass Bell rivalry game is motivation enough."

You can only win the games that you play. Wheaton has won every game it was expected to win. NCC has not. They both have a chance Saturday night. Wheaton is expected to lose, NCC expected to win.

[79jaybird]

And reality is-  Throw all the stats, details, past history, etc. out the door, because come kickoff it is about who executes and makes their plays that will decide the winner.    

[wally_wabash]

I am also not a big believer in the "you played a weak schedule so you may not be as good" theory. We have seen plenty of examples of that theory being just that (Franklin, Wabash, Wartburg, etc). The Wheaton starters are upper classmen (they start 9 seniors and 9 juniors).

This sort of thing has popped up a couple of times now...I'm not at all saying that Wheaton isn't good or that Wheaton can't be good because of who they played.  Heaven knows I know what that line of crap is all about.  But for me, the warning flag is how Wheaton has performed, beneath just the final result, against that schedule.  I mentioned Wheaton's offensive ranks relative to the defensive ranks of their first six opponents because I think it highlights the gargantuan question mark that is Wheaton's offense.  Really, really good teams don't struggle to score against those defenses the way Wheaton has.  And I think Wheaton's inconsistent offense can be traced directly back to the quarterback situation which doesn't seem much different today than what it did when Swider was holding open tryouts in Crawfordsville back in August.  And what's really confusing to me as I read through your brief history of 2014 Wheaton Quarterbacking, what I'm reading is:
1) Johnny Peltz is the best quarterback, but isn't really being given an opportunity to play the position because he decided to play baseball in the spring
2) If it can't be Peltz because he didn't dedicate his spring to Wheaton football, then the next best guy is obviously Andrew Bowers, except that....
3) Reece Butler, who would seem to be the last choice of the three, has thrown three-quarters of Wheaton's passes in 2014. 

None of this makes any sense.  It seems, at least from my vantage point, that either none of these guys have actually established themselves as better than any of the others OR Mike Swider has completely and totally mismanaged this thing from jump street.  I would bet on the former. 

Now I'm not saying that any of this will cost Wheaton the game.  It might, but who knows really.  What I am saying is that this situation right here is why all of the steam is on North Central this week.  Wheaton has no identity offensively and when they aren't playing somebody like Augustana, it's probably going to matter. 

[Gregory Sager]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

I think that the kicking unit's performance as a whole is implied in the statistic, not just the kicker's performance per se.

Division III kicking is such a crap shoot.  If you give every coach in D3 the choice to play the 60 minutes out and see what happens, or line up to kick a 41-yard field goal- make it and win, miss it and lose- there can't be more than ten coaches in D3 that would take the field goal attempt.  I don't think it's particularly fair to look at kicking stats and say one side has an advantage over the other.  The sample sizes are too small and in particular the sample size of scenarios that even come close to replicating "if it comes down to a field goal at the end" hypotheticals where we believe kicking matters most are essentially non-existent.   

I agree with this for the most part. I don't think I agree about the QB position. I think they have a standout player in Bowers. I just think they waited too long to decide that and then he got hurt.  Peltz could be that player but he played baseball in the spring and has been slow to catch on with the offense. Remember, Peltz turned down a scholarship to North Dakota State (the FCS 2x national Champion) and he played QB at Wheaton North, sharing the position with Northwestern freshman QB Clayton Thorson. So he has plenty of talent.

I guess for me, this doesn't quite pass the smell test.  Jake Knott played baseball (catcher of all things) at Wabash and 11,000+ yards and 120+ TDs later, he's the best QB that ever played there and it isn't close.  If Peltz is the best QB they have and you've got all of summer camp plus six layups before the biggest game of your season, you have to let him play and learn on the fly, don't you? 

It doesn't pass the smell test for me, either. T.D. Conway plays baseball for NPU. You can attribute T.D.'s up-and-down performance this season to a lot of things -- his own youth, the inexperience of his O-line, the erratic route-running and occasional stone-handedness of his receivers, the absence of his brother for most of the season to date, etc. -- but you can't really attribute it to the fact that he played baseball last spring.

Bruce Swanson and Gary Duesenberg, who are right up there with John Love in the discussion for the best QB to ever wear the royal blue and gold -- trust me, it's not a discussion that comes up much -- were also two-sport stars at North Park; Swanson played basketball and Duesenberg played baseball. Heck, Scott Groot, who was the signal-caller for the Vikings during my student era (when NPC was actually competitive in the CCIW for a change), played three sports for the Park, as he was also a point guard for the basketball team and an infielder for the baseball team. If I suggested to Mike Conway that the problem with the NPU offense is the fact that his son played baseball for the Vikings last spring, I'd be laughed out of his office.

I just don't buy the baseball excuse for Peltz.

Bummed.  Instead of going to the Wheaton vs. NCC game Saturday night, I get to spend the day at North Park homecoming festivities.  (wife's 20th reunion).

No intended slap to NPU poster's, as I likely know a whole bunch of people at the game, cookouts and reunion gatherings.  But I will be missing one of the major games of the year, against the primary rival, and I'm not really huge into social gatherings.

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

[USee]

You guys misunderstand my point with Peltz playing baseball. Of course it happens and there are plenty of examples of kids who have thrived on it (the Ladd kid from IWU did it too--Wabash and NPU remember him I'm sure). The issue is there is a talented option besides Peltz named Andrew Bowers as well as a Senior named Reece Butler. Peltz was solidly behind in camp from what I hear and he didn't catch up mentally. Now, why they took 3 games to go to Bowers over Butler is a mystery to me and goes to Wally's analysis. Why they went from Bowers to Peltz is pretty straight forward, Bowers was hurt. Peltz, for whatever reason, is not the best QB on the team. The coaches actions tell us that when they moved him to receiver and put Bowers at QB. Putting Peltz back at QB after 2 weeks at receiver means he is the 2nd best option. The only other thing I was highlighting was he is a pretty talented QB, which means if Bowers beat him out he must be even better. The Butler decision over Bowers/Peltz is an enigma.

Who starts on Saturday as well as what's on second is anybody's guess.

[Mugsy]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already discussed with Andrea the idea of while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

[USee]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

[Mugsy]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

At the post game social gatherings, I will be tethered to my smart phone to watch or listen to the game.  With one eye on the 3 kids running around, which is likely the real reason I'm there.

[scottie]

Nice pitcher's dual in Bloomington last weekend!