FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CardinalAlum]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

At the post game social gatherings, I will be tethered to my smart phone to watch or listen to the game.  With one eye on the 3 kids running around, which is likely the real reason I'm there.

Depending on what's happening in the game, I'll be SURE to update you!!      Stay close to your phone!

[79jaybird]

Glad to see Elmhurst leave today for B-N instead of on gameday.  IMO, when you have the same day 3-4 hour trip,  it can mentally be exhausting. Hoping for a different outcome than has been the norm down there.  (no pun intended)

[ExTartanPlayer]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

A few (okay, actually a bunch of) words on the kicking/FG discussion:

Noting that one team has made 6/13 FG's in six games while another has made 9/11 sounds like a big difference when it's framed as "46% vs. 82%" or "16th in the nation vs. 95th in the nation" but there is SO much other noise (how long were the FGs? what kind of wind/weather/field conditions?) that the raw percentages are all but useless.  If one kid is money on cheapies inside the 20 but never kicks a long one, while another coach is a bit more adventurous and tries the occasional 48-yarder because he believes in his kicker, that second kid might have a lower accuracy number just because he's trying harder attempts.  Classic Simpson's paradox, if you're a stats geek.  See, look:

North Central's kicking game has made 9/11 FG's, ranging from 27-39 yards.  Misses from 27 and 33 yards.

Wheaton's kicking game has made 6/13 FG's, ranging from 25-56 yards...but four of the misses are from a longer range (43, 44, 53, 56) than anything attempted by NCC's field-goal outfit.  Remove those four, and Wheaton is 6/9 on FG attempts from 25-37 yards.  Misses from 25, 35, and 37.

That puts a lot more context on those numbers; it's not as though NCC has some cannon-legged kicker bombing 50-yard FG's while Wheaton can't hit the broadside of a barn on an extra point attempt.  Inside 40 yards, they're actually pretty darned similar.  9/11 (82%) vs. 6/9 (67%) still sounds like a difference to some people, though, so let's debunk that notion even further.  If we took two hypothetical kickers of exactly the same ability and gave one of them 11 FG attempts, then gave the other 9 FG attempts (now assuming that all FG attempts are identical) the chances of one kid going 9/11 or better while the other kid went 6/9 or worse would be about sixty-one percent.  That's a long way from p<.05, my friends.  There is no statistical evidence at all that either kicking game is better than the other on FG's inside of 40 yards.  Wheaton missing a few long FG's doesn't exactly point to a big disadvantage in the kicking game.

But wait, there's more data we can include: extra-point attempts, which are 19-yard field goals.  NCC is 31/34 on PAT attempts, Wheaton is 21/22.  Add those into the mix and now we're talking about NCC converting 40/45 (88.9%) of its kicks inside 40 yards while Wheaton is converting 27/31 (87.1%). 

I hope that puts to bed any ideas that either team has a significant advantage in the field-goal-and-extra-point-kicking game.

[CardinalAlum]

Glad to see Elmhurst leave today for B-N instead of on gameday.  IMO, when you have the same day 3-4 hour trip,  it can mentally be exhausting. Hoping for a different outcome than has been the norm down there.  (no pun intended)

3-4 hours??  Are they biking to B-N??   

[AndOne]

Wheaton comes into tomorrow night's game at a perfect 6-0, but having faced teams whose combined records are only 8-28. None is over .500
North Central arrives with a 5-1 record, having faced teams who have compiled a 17-19 record. Their lone loss is to UWSP, also 5-1.

NCC's fortunes are boosted by the fact that, in addition to RB Ryan Kent who sat out last week, they will also get back 6'3" 270 pound DT Peter Mann who has missed the last 3 games.

[79jaybird]

yup,  biking and using L-Ghost's "blue Kool-Aid" as the motor oil.   

[USee]

Wheaton comes into tomorrow night's game at a perfect 6-0, but having faced teams whose combined records are only 8-28. None is over .500
North Central arrives with a 5-1 record, having faced teams who have compiled a 17-19 record. Their lone loss is to UWSP, also 5-1.

NCC's fortunes are boosted by the fact that, in addition to RB Ryan Kent who sat out last week, they will also get back 6'3" 270 pound DT Peter Mann who has missed the last 3 games.

AndOne? What does the records of opponents matter? Didn't affect Wabash in 2012.  Its not a factor. 

[wally_wabash]

Wheaton comes into tomorrow night's game at a perfect 6-0, but having faced teams whose combined records are only 8-28. None is over .500
North Central arrives with a 5-1 record, having faced teams who have compiled a 17-19 record. Their lone loss is to UWSP, also 5-1.

NCC's fortunes are boosted by the fact that, in addition to RB Ryan Kent who sat out last week, they will also get back 6'3" 270 pound DT Peter Mann who has missed the last 3 games.

AndOne? What does the records of opponents matter? Didn't affect Wabash in 2012.  Its not a factor.

Maybe in 2011 you mean?  It kind of did matter in 2012.  We beat the two 9-1 teams in the NCAC (both at homecomings on the road!) in 2012 and still got left out.  Womp womp. 

[USee]

2011 yes. 

[Mugsy]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

At the post game social gatherings, I will be tethered to my smart phone to watch or listen to the game.  With one eye on the 3 kids running around, which is likely the real reason I'm there.

Depending on what's happening in the game, I'll be SURE to update you!!      Stay close to your phone!

No doubt!  Can easily go the other way if there is reason for me to be thumping my chest!   

[AndOne]

Wheaton comes into tomorrow night's game at a perfect 6-0, but having faced teams whose combined records are only 8-28. None is over .500
North Central arrives with a 5-1 record, having faced teams who have compiled a 17-19 record. Their lone loss is to UWSP, also 5-1.

NCC's fortunes are boosted by the fact that, in addition to RB Ryan Kent who sat out last week, they will also get back 6'3" 270 pound DT Peter Mann who has missed the last 3 games.

AndOne? What does the records of opponents matter? Didn't affect Wabash in 2012.  Its not a factor.

Like all statistics, the value is in the eye of the beholder. It might matter a great deal to the 12th person in line, and not at all to the 13th.
To whatever degree the information is of value, you must admit it is traditional information that is usually disseminated prior to contests in many different sports.
Delving more deeply into what you obviously consider a statistical abyss, one might conclude that a record of 6-1 against teams with a combined record of 8-28 is not overly impressive. Another conclusion might be that the information presented doesn't mean squat. Who can argue with ether perspective?
Perhaps just accept it as informational, and attach whatever value to it that you deem appropriate, while allowing others to do the same.   

[CardinalAlum]

yup,  biking and using L-Ghost's "blue Kool-Aid" as the motor oil.   

I just spit on my screen!!  Hilarious!     +K

[CardinalAlum]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

At the post game social gatherings, I will be tethered to my smart phone to watch or listen to the game.  With one eye on the 3 kids running around, which is likely the real reason I'm there.

Depending on what's happening in the game, I'll be SURE to update you!!      Stay close to your phone!

No doubt!  Can easily go the other way if there is reason for me to be thumping my chest!   

I won't call you then!  At our age, thumping our own chest could cause a collapsed lung!

[Mugsy]

Poke your head through the open window of the press box tomorrow afternoon before the game, Mugsy, and I'll hand you a lollipop for your troubles.

The upside is that you get to have lunch at Charcoal Delights. Put your foot down and tell Andrea that you're going to eat there as a reward for your heroic act of spousal sacrifice.

Funny you should mention it.  I already mentioned to Andrea that while she is socializing before the game, I'll take the kids and head over to Charcoal Delights and then meet her at the game.

I'll stop by and say hello.

Live stream the Wheaton game Mugsy. Technology can be leveraged!

At the post game social gatherings, I will be tethered to my smart phone to watch or listen to the game.  With one eye on the 3 kids running around, which is likely the real reason I'm there.

Depending on what's happening in the game, I'll be SURE to update you!!      Stay close to your phone!

No doubt!  Can easily go the other way if there is reason for me to be thumping my chest!   

I won't call you then!  At our age, thumping our own chest could cause a collapsed lung!

Lol, speaking of spraying drinks on monitors...

[thunder38]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

A few (okay, actually a bunch of) words on the kicking/FG discussion:

Noting that one team has made 6/13 FG's in six games while another has made 9/11 sounds like a big difference when it's framed as "46% vs. 82%" or "16th in the nation vs. 95th in the nation" but there is SO much other noise (how long were the FGs? what kind of wind/weather/field conditions?) that the raw percentages are all but useless.  If one kid is money on cheapies inside the 20 but never kicks a long one, while another coach is a bit more adventurous and tries the occasional 48-yarder because he believes in his kicker, that second kid might have a lower accuracy number just because he's trying harder attempts.  Classic Simpson's paradox, if you're a stats geek.  See, look:

North Central's kicking game has made 9/11 FG's, ranging from 27-39 yards.  Misses from 27 and 33 yards.

Wheaton's kicking game has made 6/13 FG's, ranging from 25-56 yards...but four of the misses are from a longer range (43, 44, 53, 56) than anything attempted by NCC's field-goal outfit.  Remove those four, and Wheaton is 6/9 on FG attempts from 25-37 yards.  Misses from 25, 35, and 37.

That puts a lot more context on those numbers; it's not as though NCC has some cannon-legged kicker bombing 50-yard FG's while Wheaton can't hit the broadside of a barn on an extra point attempt.  Inside 40 yards, they're actually pretty darned similar.  9/11 (82%) vs. 6/9 (67%) still sounds like a difference to some people, though, so let's debunk that notion even further.  If we took two hypothetical kickers of exactly the same ability and gave one of them 11 FG attempts, then gave the other 9 FG attempts (now assuming that all FG attempts are identical) the chances of one kid going 9/11 or better while the other kid went 6/9 or worse would be about sixty-one percent.  That's a long way from p<.05, my friends.  There is no statistical evidence at all that either kicking game is better than the other on FG's inside of 40 yards.  Wheaton missing a few long FG's doesn't exactly point to a big disadvantage in the kicking game.

But wait, there's more data we can include: extra-point attempts, which are 19-yard field goals.  NCC is 31/34 on PAT attempts, Wheaton is 21/22.  Add those into the mix and now we're talking about NCC converting 40/45 (88.9%) of its kicks inside 40 yards while Wheaton is converting 27/31 (87.1%). 

I hope that puts to bed any ideas that either team has a significant advantage in the field-goal-and-extra-point-kicking game.

Several other things to ExTartan's breakdown is that the blocking for Wheaton has not been what we're used to seeing either. Though credited for only two, Cote has actually had four kicks either get blocked or tipped including one last week. He also had the one against UW-EC get tipped but still go through. Cote was outstanding against Augie two weeks ago and looked confident last week but had the long attempt blocked and just never pushed the short attempt far enough over. There's a couple of factors as well which ExTartan eluded to:

Week 1 vs. Coe - 2-3 - missed 44 yards (rolled snap, had distance but left)
Week 2 at Kzoo - 1-2 - missed 56 yards on rushed attempt on last play of the half
Week 3 vs. UW-EC - 1-3 - missed 35 and 37 (35 was in a driving rain and the ball knuckled off wide, 37 was blocked, both low snaps)
Week 5 vs. North Park - none attempted
Week 6 at Augie - 2-3 - missed 53 (blocked on last play of half)
Week 7 at Millikin - 0-2 - missed 25 (25 left hash and missed left, 43 blocked)

He was a finalist for the Fred Mitchell Award last year and a preseason watchlist for the award for the second year this year so clearly the kid has some talent. The operation needs to be smooth and the protection needs to hold. If both of these can happen, Cote has the kind of leg to be a difference maker in a game that looks like it will be played under pristine conditions tomorrow night.