FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Wheaton comes into tomorrow night's game at a perfect 6-0, but having faced teams whose combined records are only 8-28. None is over .500
North Central arrives with a 5-1 record, having faced teams who have compiled a 17-19 record. Their lone loss is to UWSP, also 5-1.

NCC's fortunes are boosted by the fact that, in addition to RB Ryan Kent who sat out last week, they will also get back 6'3" 270 pound DT Peter Mann who has missed the last 3 games.

AndOne? What does the records of opponents matter? Didn't affect Wabash in 2012.  Its not a factor.

Like all statistics, the value is in the eye of the beholder. It might matter a great deal to the 12th person in line, and not at all to the 13th.
To whatever degree the information is of value, you must admit it is traditional information that is usually disseminated prior to contests in many different sports.
Delving more deeply into what you obviously consider a statistical abyss, one might conclude that a record of 6-1 against teams with a combined record of 8-28 is not overly impressive. Another conclusion might be that the information presented doesn't mean squat. Who can argue with ether perspective?
Perhaps just accept it as informational, and attach whatever value to it that you deem appropriate, while allowing others to do the same.   

Informational? As in the newspaper? This is a discussion board. Anyone can argue with anyone else. When you post on here the theory is to debate and discuss. You clearly posted it because you thought it was statistically significant. I asked, why and stated my opinion, which is its irrelevant because both these teams play with upperclassmen who know how to play in big games. If Wheaton loses tomorrow night I can assure you it won't have anything to do with playing Coe, Kzoo, and UWEC. They also scrimmaged Wabash before any of those. NCC hasn't played anyone that good yet. So advantage Wheaton? Doubt it.

Its game 7 of the season. You are ready or you aren't. Back to your newspaper.

[D3gridiron]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

A few (okay, actually a bunch of) words on the kicking/FG discussion:

Noting that one team has made 6/13 FG's in six games while another has made 9/11 sounds like a big difference when it's framed as "46% vs. 82%" or "16th in the nation vs. 95th in the nation" but there is SO much other noise (how long were the FGs? what kind of wind/weather/field conditions?) that the raw percentages are all but useless.  If one kid is money on cheapies inside the 20 but never kicks a long one, while another coach is a bit more adventurous and tries the occasional 48-yarder because he believes in his kicker, that second kid might have a lower accuracy number just because he's trying harder attempts.  Classic Simpson's paradox, if you're a stats geek.  See, look:

North Central's kicking game has made 9/11 FG's, ranging from 27-39 yards.  Misses from 27 and 33 yards.

Wheaton's kicking game has made 6/13 FG's, ranging from 25-56 yards...but four of the misses are from a longer range (43, 44, 53, 56) than anything attempted by NCC's field-goal outfit.  Remove those four, and Wheaton is 6/9 on FG attempts from 25-37 yards.  Misses from 25, 35, and 37.

That puts a lot more context on those numbers; it's not as though NCC has some cannon-legged kicker bombing 50-yard FG's while Wheaton can't hit the broadside of a barn on an extra point attempt.  Inside 40 yards, they're actually pretty darned similar.  9/11 (82%) vs. 6/9 (67%) still sounds like a difference to some people, though, so let's debunk that notion even further.  If we took two hypothetical kickers of exactly the same ability and gave one of them 11 FG attempts, then gave the other 9 FG attempts (now assuming that all FG attempts are identical) the chances of one kid going 9/11 or better while the other kid went 6/9 or worse would be about sixty-one percent.  That's a long way from p<.05, my friends.  There is no statistical evidence at all that either kicking game is better than the other on FG's inside of 40 yards.  Wheaton missing a few long FG's doesn't exactly point to a big disadvantage in the kicking game.

But wait, there's more data we can include: extra-point attempts, which are 19-yard field goals.  NCC is 31/34 on PAT attempts, Wheaton is 21/22.  Add those into the mix and now we're talking about NCC converting 40/45 (88.9%) of its kicks inside 40 yards while Wheaton is converting 27/31 (87.1%). 

I hope that puts to bed any ideas that either team has a significant advantage in the field-goal-and-extra-point-kicking game.

Several other things to ExTartan's breakdown is that the blocking for Wheaton has not been what we're used to seeing either. Though credited for only two, Cote has actually had four kicks either get blocked or tipped including one last week. He also had the one against UW-EC get tipped but still go through. Cote was outstanding against Augie two weeks ago and looked confident last week but had the long attempt blocked and just never pushed the short attempt far enough over. There's a couple of factors as well which ExTartan eluded to:

Week 1 vs. Coe - 2-3 - missed 44 yards (rolled snap, had distance but left)
Week 2 at Kzoo - 1-2 - missed 56 yards on rushed attempt on last play of the half
Week 3 vs. UW-EC - 1-3 - missed 35 and 37 (35 was in a driving rain and the ball knuckled off wide, 37 was blocked, both low snaps)
Week 5 vs. North Park - none attempted
Week 6 at Augie - 2-3 - missed 53 (blocked on last play of half)
Week 7 at Millikin - 0-2 - missed 25 (25 left hash and missed left, 43 blocked)

He was a finalist for the Fred Mitchell Award last year and a preseason watchlist for the award for the second year this year so clearly the kid has some talent. The operation needs to be smooth and the protection needs to hold. If both of these can happen, Cote has the kind of leg to be a difference maker in a game that looks like it will be played under pristine conditions tomorrow night.

This field goal thing (NCC versus Wheaton) has struck a nerve for some reason.  It's interesting, a lot of the posts are referencing back to Wheaton's stats last season or even two seasons ago.  Facts are...2012 Wheaton FG performance was average middle of the pack (62%), last year good at 75%, and this year very poor (46%).  Some posters are talking a lot about perceived talent and ability (opinion) of the Wheaton kicker.  I have only talked about this year's measured performance - facts.  As we all know perceived talent and ability doesn't always translate to performance.

I've always thought of the Wheaton program as a straight forward, no nonsense, no excuses program (to their credit for sure).  But the responses to this season's poor FG performance versus NCC performance have been interesting to say the least. 

The excuses go on and on...The snapper isn't any good.  Throw the holder under the bus.  The line blocking is sub par –leading to blocked attempts (low kicks get blocked too).  The coach is over adventurous.  Kicking attempts have to be rushed.  Had to take a 25-yard field goal from the left hash (give me a break).  Some have even posed hypothetical scenarios leading to hypothetical statistics.  At some point I thought one of you were going to say he had to take some kicks with his left foot. 

It just seems like everyone is making excuses for the Wheaton kicker.  Every D3 kicker gets bad snaps, bad holds, poor blocking, rushed attempts, and chances to be pushed beyond their comfort zones.  All have to deal with adverse weather conditions.  These things are not unique to Wheaton and don't somehow put Wheaton's kicker at some unfair disadvantage as the posts seem to imply.  The NCC kicker has to deal with the same adversities (and don't forget he is only a freshman).

One post even mentioned Wheaton's kicker as a potential all-american for this year.  Difficult for me to believe that's even being discussed for a FG kicker that's 6-13 on the season and has missed 6 of his last 9 attempts (the LONGEST of those three makes was only 27 yards).  This year's end of season awards will be based on this year's performance (unless some serious political horse trading takes place).  And right now NCC FG performance (and several other CCIW teams) has been better.

S. Cote has had the chance to shine this year on kicks in the low 40's and the 50's (credit his coach for that).  Unfortunately he was not able to successfully use those opportunities to differentiate himself from the field.  And he struggled at closer ranges too, including missing a 25 yarder.   Now he is ranked at the bottom in the nation.  Even if you take out the two 50's attempts (which several have tried to do in their posts), the Wheaton kicker is still only middle of the national pack at best.  NCC' s kicker remains at the top.

And a few more FACTS...

Only two FG kickers in the entire nation have missed more field goal attempts this season then S. Cote.  And one of those kickers even has a higher FG percentage than S. Cote.  You won't see NCC's Zavaglia on this list.

Wheaton's long field goal this year is 38 yards.  NCC's is 39 yards.

[USee]

Game, set, match! Well done. To use one of my favorite movie lines, if facts were people you'd be China.  With that I have officially used way over my alloted ink on kicking.  Congratulations though this is pure genius.

Should be great weather tonight.

[CardinalAlum]

The kicker thing is WAY overdone!  Cote is one of the finest kickers in the country.   It takes a whole lot of people doing their job to make a kick successful and he has proven that when everyone does their job in front of him, he can get the ball through the uprights.   

[Mugsy]

Personally I hope the deciding factor comes down to a made kick (preferably by Cote).  It'll mean it was any absolutely awesome game.

[thunderdog]

Game day baby!~  Game Day!

I'm wearing my orange-and-blue Wheaton Thunder shirt over my shirt-and-tie at work all day... well until the boss comes and says otherwise.

Can't wait to get rowdy @ McCully tonight with my fellow ThunderDawgs.  Let's show up in droves Thunder fans and be ready to make some NOISE~!

[izzy stradlin]

If you are going to try to say something intelligent comparing two samples, you must use some kind of inclusion/exclusion criteria to ensure the samples are similar. NCC's kicker hasn't attempted any FGs over 39 yds so you simple can't compare that to Wheaton's attempts over 39.

On kicks up to 39 yards:
NCC 9-11
WC 6-9

I can guarantee you that with a samples of 9 and 11, that is not a statistically significant difference.  I don't even care about blocking, snapping, holding etc. There is simply nothing intelligent to say when comparing the two kicking games and the conversation should stop.


Looking forward to the game tonight.  I can't believe this will be Coach Thorne's last against Wheaton.  I have a ton of respect for him.   

[AndOne]

Game day baby!~  Game Day!

I'm wearing my orange-and-blue Wheaton Thunder shirt over my shirt-and-tie at work all day... well until the boss comes and says otherwise.

Can't wait to get rowdy @ McCully tonight with my fellow ThunderDawgs.  Let's show up in droves Thunder fans and be ready to make some NOISE~!

NOISE? In Wheaton? They have rules against that type of thing in Wheaton! 

[thunderdog]

Game day baby!~  Game Day!

I'm wearing my orange-and-blue Wheaton Thunder shirt over my shirt-and-tie at work all day... well until the boss comes and says otherwise.

Can't wait to get rowdy @ McCully tonight with my fellow ThunderDawgs.  Let's show up in droves Thunder fans and be ready to make some NOISE~!

NOISE? In Wheaton? They have rules against that type of thing in Wheaton! 

Yes, apparatly they do, and we fans followed them to a T last year... felt like I could hear a pin drop last year.  In fact, I'll quote some random NCC player walking off the field last year during halftime, "Wow, sure is quiet over here!"

THAT NEEDS TO CHANGE TONIGHT!!!  I'll do my best 1-man wrecking crew if I have too... I plan on going hoarse tonight...

[shepherd]

Kovo,

What he said was:

There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

A few (okay, actually a bunch of) words on the kicking/FG discussion:

Noting that one team has made 6/13 FG's in six games while another has made 9/11 sounds like a big difference when it's framed as "46% vs. 82%" or "16th in the nation vs. 95th in the nation" but there is SO much other noise (how long were the FGs? what kind of wind/weather/field conditions?) that the raw percentages are all but useless.  If one kid is money on cheapies inside the 20 but never kicks a long one, while another coach is a bit more adventurous and tries the occasional 48-yarder because he believes in his kicker, that second kid might have a lower accuracy number just because he's trying harder attempts.  Classic Simpson's paradox, if you're a stats geek.  See, look:

North Central's kicking game has made 9/11 FG's, ranging from 27-39 yards.  Misses from 27 and 33 yards.

Wheaton's kicking game has made 6/13 FG's, ranging from 25-56 yards...but four of the misses are from a longer range (43, 44, 53, 56) than anything attempted by NCC's field-goal outfit.  Remove those four, and Wheaton is 6/9 on FG attempts from 25-37 yards.  Misses from 25, 35, and 37.

That puts a lot more context on those numbers; it's not as though NCC has some cannon-legged kicker bombing 50-yard FG's while Wheaton can't hit the broadside of a barn on an extra point attempt.  Inside 40 yards, they're actually pretty darned similar.  9/11 (82%) vs. 6/9 (67%) still sounds like a difference to some people, though, so let's debunk that notion even further.  If we took two hypothetical kickers of exactly the same ability and gave one of them 11 FG attempts, then gave the other 9 FG attempts (now assuming that all FG attempts are identical) the chances of one kid going 9/11 or better while the other kid went 6/9 or worse would be about sixty-one percent.  That's a long way from p<.05, my friends.  There is no statistical evidence at all that either kicking game is better than the other on FG's inside of 40 yards.  Wheaton missing a few long FG's doesn't exactly point to a big disadvantage in the kicking game.

But wait, there's more data we can include: extra-point attempts, which are 19-yard field goals.  NCC is 31/34 on PAT attempts, Wheaton is 21/22.  Add those into the mix and now we're talking about NCC converting 40/45 (88.9%) of its kicks inside 40 yards while Wheaton is converting 27/31 (87.1%). 

I hope that puts to bed any ideas that either team has a significant advantage in the field-goal-and-extra-point-kicking game.

Several other things to ExTartan's breakdown is that the blocking for Wheaton has not been what we're used to seeing either. Though credited for only two, Cote has actually had four kicks either get blocked or tipped including one last week. He also had the one against UW-EC get tipped but still go through. Cote was outstanding against Augie two weeks ago and looked confident last week but had the long attempt blocked and just never pushed the short attempt far enough over. There's a couple of factors as well which ExTartan eluded to:

Week 1 vs. Coe - 2-3 - missed 44 yards (rolled snap, had distance but left)
Week 2 at Kzoo - 1-2 - missed 56 yards on rushed attempt on last play of the half
Week 3 vs. UW-EC - 1-3 - missed 35 and 37 (35 was in a driving rain and the ball knuckled off wide, 37 was blocked, both low snaps)
Week 5 vs. North Park - none attempted
Week 6 at Augie - 2-3 - missed 53 (blocked on last play of half)
Week 7 at Millikin - 0-2 - missed 25 (25 left hash and missed left, 43 blocked)

He was a finalist for the Fred Mitchell Award last year and a preseason watchlist for the award for the second ylive NCrow night.

I will be there rooting for the Thunder with my service dog who has an injury in the foot but was cleared by the vet to go.  This will be my first game this year due to dog paw injuries.

I believe North Central will try some quick run plays as Thorn said it was a weakness of the Thunder.  Hopefully the D line and lb's will be ready.  I dont know if you insiders know but I have no clue to who is starting QB for Wheaton although I hope its Peltz.  He just really knows how to win.  I would especially use him on QB sneaks as he has an incredible way of using his linemen and stretching out his body.  His QB sneak is practically unstoppable.

[USee]

I can see the headlines now "Peltz uses QB sneak to run for 230 yds and Thunder Win!" Genius, pure genius.

[USee]

Final from Bloomington

Elmhurst 29
IWU 28

Elmhurst was down 28-17 in the 4th and rallied to win.

[shepherd]

I can see the headlines now "Peltz uses QB sneak to run for 230 yds and Thunder Win!" Genius, pure genius.

Aren't you Mr snarky!
Yea I meant we run qb sneak every play.

[AndOne]

Game day baby!~  Game Day!

I'm wearing my orange-and-blue Wheaton Thunder shirt over my shirt-and-tie at work all day... well until the boss comes and says otherwise.

Can't wait to get rowdy @ McCully tonight with my fellow ThunderDawgs.  Let's show up in droves Thunder fans and be ready to make some NOISE~!

NOISE? In Wheaton? They have rules against that type of thing in Wheaton! 

Yes, apparatly they do, and we fans followed them to a T last year... felt like I could hear a pin drop last year.  In fact, I'll quote some random NCC player walking off the field last year during halftime, "Wow, sure is quiet over here!"

THAT NEEDS TO CHANGE TONIGHT!!!  I'll do my best 1-man wrecking crew if I have too... I plan on going hoarse tonight...

We can only hope, dog. 

[USee]

Just messing with you. 

Go Thunder!