FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[thunderdog]

I would guess that we won't know whether JOHNNY Peltz is playing or not until about 2pm on Saturday!  Insert "I dislike Mugsy" joke here...

CA,
You tell us first what SoDup's plan at QB is... and then we'll gladly, happily, joyfully, THINK about returning the favor...

NCC definitely plans to use a QB.

I'll go so far as to say that we will use TWO!

Yes! I'm going straight to the Wheaton coaching staff with this info... Cat's out of the bag...LOL...u fell for the oldest trick in the book...when u weren't looking, I switched the glasses...

[thunderdog]

Calling all crusaderin' Thunder fans,

It's Little Brass Bell time. Last year, you provided the most electric atmosphere at McCully Stadium that I've seen in a very long time. Well, SoDup's field in Napertucky is a mere 7.4 miles away. Let's paint that town Blue-and-Orange (metaphorically speaking)... Let's do this!

[ncc_fan]

I would guess that we won't know whether JOHNNY Peltz is playing or not until about 2pm on Saturday!  Insert "I dislike Mugsy" joke here...

CA,
You tell us first what SoDup's plan at QB is... and then we'll gladly, happily, joyfully, THINK about returning the favor...

NCC definitely plans to use a QB.

I'll go so far as to say that we will use TWO!

... though one may be lined up as a WR.  Or not.

[Neverwas]

looking at the stats...

blue

Stat	Rank	Wheaton	NCC	Rank2
Total Offense	6	543.3	482.7	26
Rushing Offense	12	280.2	262.3	19
Passing Offense	45	263.2	220.3	T-108
Team Passing Efficiency	12	167.62	145.66	53
Scoring Offense	11	46.8	42.5	23
Total Defense	25	285.2	380.2	125
Rushing Defense	14	86.2	125.7	64
Passing Yards Allowed	T-88	199	254.5	200
Team Passing Efficiency Defense	37	101.28	109.78	56
Scoring Defense	11	11	25	T-109
Turnover Margin	T-110	0.17	-0.17	T-143
3rd Down Conversion Pct	2	0.603	0.5	T-12
4th Down Conversion Pct	T-10	0.75	0.125	T-235
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	27	0.292	0.352	94
Red Zone Offense	T-87	0.794	0.76	126
Red Zone Defense	T-12	0.556	0.75	T-119
Net Punting	175	30.93	33.29	89
Punt Returns	86	9.46	6.36	165
Kickoff Returns	9	25.54	20.61	90
First Downs Offense	T-10	164	143	37
First Downs Defense	T-42	95	120	T-132
Fewest Penalties Per Game	T-137	6.83	6.33	T-108
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game	T-125	59.67	55.17	T-95
Time of Possession	130	29:32	32:02	54

A few things jump off the page:
1 - Wheaton is really good on third down.  2nd in the nation.  So is NCC, 12th.
2 - NCC defense is down.  Yes, they have played good competition but they are still #125 in total D.
3 - Wheaton is 25th in total D but even better when it comes to scoring D (11th).  I wonder how much of that is teams realizing they have to score TDs and forgoing FGs...

Wheaton tends to not be overly aggressive defensively and make teams drive the length of the field.  Hopefully they can do that against a very good NCC offense. 

I believe Wesley is a good proxy for this game.  At the end of the day, do we believe Wheaton's defense is a score or two better than the Wesley D (37th nationally)?  How does Wheaton's O stack up to Wesley's?

Forgot to cite the source....: stats.NCAA.org

[iwu70]

Thanks, Neverwas, very interesting comparative chart.  I have WC over NCC this year by 2 TDs. 

IWU needs to take care of business, go to 7-0, 4-0, this Saturday at Elmhurst.  Big games upcoming at home the following two weeks.

IWU'70

[79jaybird]

And IMO,  on a rivalry game, you can throw all the stats leading up to the game out the window, because come kickoff it is all about who's executing and who is going to make the mistake(s).

[Neverwas]

I usually agree with that sentiment but over the last ten years I would say the better team has won with maybe the exception of Wheaton winning in 2007 & 2012.

I also believe NCC was up to play a "national power" as much as they will be on Saturday.  The Bell is a huge deal, for both sides, but so is playing Wesley, at home.  Just my opinion.  So, I think the stats tell us something in this case.

[Mugsy]

For those who don't read the North Region Fan Poll board, there is a new name for Wheaton's opponent this week (P.O.S.S).  While by no means an accurate description of their level of play, given it is Bell week I had to laugh.

[USee]

I have been reviewing the game and trying to nail down my thoughts, which are many. The stats listed here are good reference points and the things that "jump off the page" to me are:

3rd down defense, Wheaton is 27th and POSS is 94th
Total defense 25th to 125th is a big difference especially when you consider both are facing high powered offenses
Red Zone defense Wheaton is 12th and POSS is 119th--big difference
Passing yards allowed Wheaton is 37th and POSS is 200th
Passing offense Wheaton is 45th and POSS is 108th.

I look at 11 categories for CCIW stats. Wheaton is #1 in 7 of them, #2 in 2 others and #3 in the other 2. POSS is #1 in zero, #2 in 4, and #3 in 1.

Last year these teams were #1 or #2 in all of those categories. Taking into account all the data I have looked at which includes every game they have played, the stats, the experience, etc, Wheaton appears similar to me as last year. Naperville appears to be worse.

That said, Naperville is an enigma of sorts. We don't know which team will show up Saturday. The team that led UWP 28-7 in the 4th quarter, led Wesley 35-14 midway through the 3rd period, scored 28 pts in the 4th quarter @Millikin? Or the team that gave up 28 pts to UWP in the 4th/OT while being shut out, gave up 46 points and 5 sacks in the last 18 minutes of Wesley, and trailed Millikin 28-21 in the 4th? That's good Naperville and bad Naperville. It's not a week to week thing, it's a quarter to quarter thing and I don't understand it.

What I know is this: They are struggling for their identity under Jeff Thorne. Last year they ran the ball 60% and threw it 40%. Bank it. And they were pretty good at both. They had playmakers on both sides (Sorenson, Brown, Warden, Mann, Dean, Monterubbio). Where are the playmakers now? Bruenig is excellent. Make no mistake this kid is good. And the offensive line is as good as last year from what I can tell. But at QB they are Sybil. Overall they are 63% run and just 34% pass. But that requires deeper analysis.

In the Platteville game Dylan Warden was the QB for approximately 41 plays and Hunniford for 30 plays. Warden was 60/40 run/pass and Hunniford was 43/57 run pass. More importantly, after the score was 28-7 Warden had 7 runs and 1 pass and Hunniford had 3 runs and 8 passes. Very predictable.

In the Wesley game Hunniford was the QB for all but 3 plays (one was a pass, two were runs--with a fumble) and the mix was right at Hunniford's 43/57 run pass. After the score was 35-14, they kept that balance and scored 2 more times. They did yield 5 of their 6 sacks and a fumble (on Warden's watch). Wesley's D has been maligned for this game but Wesley is giving up just 12 pts a game outside of the Naperville game so I tend to think Naperville's offense is pretty good vs Wesley's D being pretty bad. Wesley only gave up 3 yds a carry in the run, which is good, but their pass defense isn't very good.

Against Millikin it is even more telling. Through 3 quarters Hunniford was 38/62 run pass and Millikin led 21-14. Enter Warden. He executes 22 runs and 0 passes and they score 35 pts in the 4th to dominate. But it took them 3 quarters to figure out Millkin can't stop the run. Wheaton ran for 400+ yds from the opening kick.  But again, Warden at the helm was very predictable.

Naperville's defense is equally an enigma. Keeping Wesley to 14 through 2.5 quarters and then giving up 46? Huh? Keeping UWP to 7 through 3 quarters and then giving up 28 (though 7 was a special teams TD). Outside of those two sleep walking episodes the defense has been good, though not near their defenses of past years. 

What's it all mean? I think the red pidgeons are pretty good on offense when they find the hot hand and the right strategy. I am not sure they have many playmakers on their defense and giving up 125 yds a game on the ground when they are facing a team that just ran for 400 and ran for 225 last year on this team doesn't bode well. The biggest wildcard, and most important piece, to me, of this game is Sola Olateju. This kid is good. O'Shayne Brown type good. He is faster than everyone on the field and strong. His problem is he puts the ball on the ground too much. Wheaton has 8 fumbles on the year (losing 5) and I think 4-5 of them are his. If he holds on to the ball, he could have a huge night for the Thunder as they almost assuredly will look to run the ball given the facts before us.

Stay tuned.

[Kovo]

looking at the stats...

blue

Stat	Rank	Wheaton	NCC	Rank2
Total Offense	6	543.3	482.7	26
Rushing Offense	12	280.2	262.3	19
Passing Offense	45	263.2	220.3	T-108
Team Passing Efficiency	12	167.62	145.66	53
Scoring Offense	11	46.8	42.5	23
Total Defense	25	285.2	380.2	125
Rushing Defense	14	86.2	125.7	64
Passing Yards Allowed	T-88	199	254.5	200
Team Passing Efficiency Defense	37	101.28	109.78	56
Scoring Defense	11	11	25	T-109
Turnover Margin	T-110	0.17	-0.17	T-143
3rd Down Conversion Pct	2	0.603	0.5	T-12
4th Down Conversion Pct	T-10	0.75	0.125	T-235
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	27	0.292	0.352	94
Red Zone Offense	T-87	0.794	0.76	126
Red Zone Defense	T-12	0.556	0.75	T-119
Net Punting	175	30.93	33.29	89
Punt Returns	86	9.46	6.36	165
Kickoff Returns	9	25.54	20.61	90
First Downs Offense	T-10	164	143	37
First Downs Defense	T-42	95	120	T-132
Fewest Penalties Per Game	T-137	6.83	6.33	T-108
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game	T-125	59.67	55.17	T-95
Time of Possession	130	29:32	32:02	54

A few things jump off the page:
1 - Wheaton is really good on third down.  2nd in the nation.  So is NCC, 12th.
2 - NCC defense is down.  Yes, they have played good competition but they are still #125 in total D.
3 - Wheaton is 25th in total D but even better when it comes to scoring D (11th).  I wonder how much of that is teams realizing they have to score TDs and forgoing FGs...

Wheaton tends to not be overly aggressive defensively and make teams drive the length of the field.  Hopefully they can do that against a very good NCC offense. 

I believe Wesley is a good proxy for this game.  At the end of the day, do we believe Wheaton's defense is a score or two better than the Wesley D (37th nationally)?  How does Wheaton's O stack up to Wesley's?

Forgot to cite the source....: stats.NCAA.org

All very interesting of course. And, based on the stats the Crusaders win by two touchdowns as predicted on this board. But, we may also find out if battle tested means anything especially in nonconference scheduling. NCC prepares to play it's third opponent in the top 12 nationally this year while the Cru' get ready to play their 1st opponent with a winning record, (10-27 combined).

I have been openly critical of scheduling the Wesley game, but who knows?  Perhaps it prepared them for a big game.  Personally, I would have preferred that the Cards had taken the week off, or borrowed one of the Cru's usual nonconference tomato cans to knock over to fatten up some stats.

Saturday may provide some guidance for the future.

[USee]

looking at the stats...

blue

Stat	Rank	Wheaton	NCC	Rank2
Total Offense	6	543.3	482.7	26
Rushing Offense	12	280.2	262.3	19
Passing Offense	45	263.2	220.3	T-108
Team Passing Efficiency	12	167.62	145.66	53
Scoring Offense	11	46.8	42.5	23
Total Defense	25	285.2	380.2	125
Rushing Defense	14	86.2	125.7	64
Passing Yards Allowed	T-88	199	254.5	200
Team Passing Efficiency Defense	37	101.28	109.78	56
Scoring Defense	11	11	25	T-109
Turnover Margin	T-110	0.17	-0.17	T-143
3rd Down Conversion Pct	2	0.603	0.5	T-12
4th Down Conversion Pct	T-10	0.75	0.125	T-235
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	27	0.292	0.352	94
Red Zone Offense	T-87	0.794	0.76	126
Red Zone Defense	T-12	0.556	0.75	T-119
Net Punting	175	30.93	33.29	89
Punt Returns	86	9.46	6.36	165
Kickoff Returns	9	25.54	20.61	90
First Downs Offense	T-10	164	143	37
First Downs Defense	T-42	95	120	T-132
Fewest Penalties Per Game	T-137	6.83	6.33	T-108
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game	T-125	59.67	55.17	T-95
Time of Possession	130	29:32	32:02	54

A few things jump off the page:
1 - Wheaton is really good on third down.  2nd in the nation.  So is NCC, 12th.
2 - NCC defense is down.  Yes, they have played good competition but they are still #125 in total D.
3 - Wheaton is 25th in total D but even better when it comes to scoring D (11th).  I wonder how much of that is teams realizing they have to score TDs and forgoing FGs...

Wheaton tends to not be overly aggressive defensively and make teams drive the length of the field.  Hopefully they can do that against a very good NCC offense. 

I believe Wesley is a good proxy for this game.  At the end of the day, do we believe Wheaton's defense is a score or two better than the Wesley D (37th nationally)?  How does Wheaton's O stack up to Wesley's?

Forgot to cite the source....: stats.NCAA.org

All very interesting of course. And, based on the stats the Crusaders win by two touchdowns as predicted on this board. But, we may also find out if battle tested means anything especially in nonconference scheduling. NCC prepares to play it's third opponent in the top 12 nationally this year while the Cru' get ready to play their 1st opponent with a winning record, (10-27 combined).

I have been openly critical of scheduling the Wesley game, but who knows?  Perhaps it prepared them for a big game.  Personally, I would have preferred that the Cards had taken the week off, or borrowed one of the Cru's usual nonconference tomato cans to knock over to fatten up some stats.

Saturday may provide some guidance for the future.

not much different than last year. Wheaton's critics said they didn't beat Kalamazoo, Coe, and Augie bad enough. Actually should have lost the Augie game. Didn't matter. And won't matter Saturday. This Wheaton team has 18 starters that played last year. They know what it takes. The scheduling dynamic is well documented. The system doesn't reward teams for scheduling up, doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. The benefits are unproven at best, doesn't mean it shouldn't happen.

[Kovo]

looking at the stats...

blue

Stat	Rank	Wheaton	NCC	Rank2
Total Offense	6	543.3	482.7	26
Rushing Offense	12	280.2	262.3	19
Passing Offense	45	263.2	220.3	T-108
Team Passing Efficiency	12	167.62	145.66	53
Scoring Offense	11	46.8	42.5	23
Total Defense	25	285.2	380.2	125
Rushing Defense	14	86.2	125.7	64
Passing Yards Allowed	T-88	199	254.5	200
Team Passing Efficiency Defense	37	101.28	109.78	56
Scoring Defense	11	11	25	T-109
Turnover Margin	T-110	0.17	-0.17	T-143
3rd Down Conversion Pct	2	0.603	0.5	T-12
4th Down Conversion Pct	T-10	0.75	0.125	T-235
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	27	0.292	0.352	94
Red Zone Offense	T-87	0.794	0.76	126
Red Zone Defense	T-12	0.556	0.75	T-119
Net Punting	175	30.93	33.29	89
Punt Returns	86	9.46	6.36	165
Kickoff Returns	9	25.54	20.61	90
First Downs Offense	T-10	164	143	37
First Downs Defense	T-42	95	120	T-132
Fewest Penalties Per Game	T-137	6.83	6.33	T-108
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game	T-125	59.67	55.17	T-95
Time of Possession	130	29:32	32:02	54

A few things jump off the page:
1 - Wheaton is really good on third down.  2nd in the nation.  So is NCC, 12th.
2 - NCC defense is down.  Yes, they have played good competition but they are still #125 in total D.
3 - Wheaton is 25th in total D but even better when it comes to scoring D (11th).  I wonder how much of that is teams realizing they have to score TDs and forgoing FGs...

Wheaton tends to not be overly aggressive defensively and make teams drive the length of the field.  Hopefully they can do that against a very good NCC offense. 

I believe Wesley is a good proxy for this game.  At the end of the day, do we believe Wheaton's defense is a score or two better than the Wesley D (37th nationally)?  How does Wheaton's O stack up to Wesley's?

Forgot to cite the source....: stats.NCAA.org

All very interesting of course. And, based on the stats the Crusaders win by two touchdowns as predicted on this board. But, we may also find out if battle tested means anything especially in nonconference scheduling. NCC prepares to play it's third opponent in the top 12 nationally this year while the Cru' get ready to play their 1st opponent with a winning record, (10-27 combined).

I have been openly critical of scheduling the Wesley game, but who knows?  Perhaps it prepared them for a big game.  Personally, I would have preferred that the Cards had taken the week off, or borrowed one of the Cru's usual nonconference tomato cans to knock over to fatten up some stats.

Saturday may provide some guidance for the future.

not much different than last year. Wheaton's critics said they didn't beat Kalamazoo, Coe, and Augie bad enough. Actually should have lost the Augie game. Didn't matter. And won't matter Saturday. This Wheaton team has 18 starters that played last year. They know what it takes. The scheduling dynamic is well documented. The system doesn't reward teams for scheduling up, doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. The benefits are unproven at best, doesn't mean it shouldn't happen.

If you are one of the Purples it doesn't matter.  For everyone else, if you want to make the playoffs------don't do it.

[Gregory Sager]

Overall they are 63% run and just 34% pass. But that requires deeper analysis.

OK, then, enlighten us with some of that deeper analysis by telling us what the Cardinals do on the other 3% of their offensive plays. Dropkick?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Overall they are 63% run and just 34% pass. But that requires deeper analysis.

OK, then, enlighten us with some of that deeper analysis by telling us what the Cardinals do on the other 3% of their offensive plays. Dropkick?

Well, some fraction of them they take a knee in victory formation!

(Or is that counted as a 'run' on the stat sheet?)

[Gregory Sager]

Yes, a kneel-down counts as a run.