FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[izzy stradlin]

I'd say that's a fair line for Wheaton-IWU.   

On the other hand, IWU has not matched up against NCC well at all in the last 10+ years.  IWU has only 1 win and that was the game where Fanthorpe went down and NCC's frosh QB with no experience (Spencer Stanek) was forced to play most of the game in Bloomington.  Most of the games have been by 3+ touchdowns.   I'm taking NCC this week.

I don't see how past results matter for the game in Bloomington Saturday.

And if they did, wouldn't that make IWU the favorite over Wheaton in Bloomington in 2 weeks?

Huh???   All results are past results.  That's all we have to go on when we discuss things.

I assume you realize Q was referring to past years' results, and were just making a joke.

But I disagree with him somewhat, anyway.  Players change quite a bit from year to year, but (generally) coaches, game schemes, trainers, training facilities, institutional support, etc., change much more slowly.  Unlike some (many? most?) who adamantly insist that ONLY this year's results are relevant, I believe that previous years' results ARE relevant.  They should not overwhelm what THIS group of players have done, but they do have some relevance.

Yeah, especially in football, where there is so much more that goes into a football program as you mentioned.  It's about the second and third string guys, the position coaches, facilities, institution etc, etc. 

[USee]

Yeah but to cite Aaron Fanthorpe and Spencer Stanek as examples is really not relevant, even if that was the only loss.  But to use your example, NCC lost that year because IWU had a dominant defense. They have one this year too.  So if the past matters and you are looking at matchups, that's a good place to start. 

[Titan Q]

Huh???   All results are past results.  That's all we have to go on when we discuss things.

You're just picking and choosing samples but you can't say that the past few years tell us nothing about the future.  They tell things about Mount Union.  It's how vegas correctly predicted USC to beat a top 5 Utah team yesterday.

We'll just have to disagree here.  I don't think what NCC did vs IWU in 2014 or 2012 or 2010 or whatever past season has anything to do with what will happen this coming Saturday.  This is about NCC's 2015 team vs IWU's 2015 team.

[izzy stradlin]

Huh???   All results are past results.  That's all we have to go on when we discuss things.

You're just picking and choosing samples but you can't say that the past few years tell us nothing about the future.  They tell things about Mount Union.  It's how vegas correctly predicted USC to beat a top 5 Utah team yesterday.

We'll just have to disagree here.  I don't think what NCC did vs IWU in 2014 or 2012 or 2010 or whatever past season has anything to do with what will happen this coming Saturday.  This is about NCC's 2015 team vs IWU's 2015 team.

You can't deny that past years don't tell us anything about the future.  Absolutely zero?  That's seems to be what you're saying and that's flat out wrong. 

How about week one?  Is that too long ago.  Some teams have more that 5 new starters and several season ending injuries. 

[thunderdog]

I'd say that's a fair line for Wheaton-IWU.   

On the other hand, IWU has not matched up against NCC well at all in the last 10+ years.  IWU has only 1 win and that was the game where Fanthorpe went down and NCC's frosh QB with no experience (Spencer Stanek) was forced to play most of the game in Bloomington.  Most of the games have been by 3+ touchdowns.   I'm taking NCC this week.

I don't see how past results matter for the game in Bloomington Saturday.

And if they did, wouldn't that make IWU the favorite over Wheaton in Bloomington in 2 weeks?

Huh???   All results are past results.  That's all we have to go on when we discuss things.

I assume you realize Q was referring to past years' results, and were just making a joke.

But I disagree with him somewhat, anyway.  Players change quite a bit from year to year, but (generally) coaches, game schemes, trainers, training facilities, institutional support, etc., change much more slowly.  Unlike some (many? most?) who adamantly insist that ONLY this year's results are relevant, I believe that previous years' results ARE relevant.  They should not overwhelm what THIS group of players have done, but they do have some relevance.

That's well said Mr Y. If you're a SR on IWU and you've never tasted victory vs NCC (which is the case) that absolutely factors into the equation. Let's not forget that NCC has dominated the CCIW for the past 10 years with a 67-7 record. The last time IWU beat NCC was 2009 and prior to that 2002. Most of those NCC victories were in dominant fashion, as Izzy pointed out. NCC's loss to Wheaton last week was just their 3rd conference loss since the aforementioned loss to IWU in 2009. Wow! Looking at that data, I can understand why some (Izzy) would come out with a blanket statement of "I'm taking NCC".
However, IWU has a very interesting trend of their own, making the playoffs in each of the past 3 odd numbered years (2013, 2011, 2009). Seriously, what did the even numbers ever do to u guys?
Combine this with the following: (as USee pointed out) Hunniford may be out. Until Warden starts throwing the ball better, IWU will stack that box and make it very difficult to run. (As USee also pointed out) IWU's front 7 is stout led by a very talented LB trio of Garvey, Roth & Fahey. Plus the game's at home, I would favor IWU by 3 in this one. If Hunniford is healthy and plays, I say it's a pick-em to NCC being a slight favorite.

[Titan Q]

However, IWU has a very interesting trend of their own, making the playoffs in each of the past 3 odd numbered years (2013, 2011, 2009). Seriously, what did the even numbers ever do to u guys?

One factor is that in those odd numbered years (2013, 2011, 2009), IWU has faced both Wheaton and North Central in Bloomington.  The Titans are 4-2 in those home games.

It's hard to go 0-2 in those games in a given season and make the playoffs.

[Titan Q]

You can't deny that past years don't tell us anything about the future.  Absolutely zero?  That's seems to be what you're saying and that's flat out wrong. 

How about week one?  Is that too long ago.  Some teams have more that 5 new starters and several season ending injuries.

If we are talking about the preseason poll, or discussing a matchup very early in the season, then yes, I'm all about looking at a program's recent history.

But we are talking about a game being played on the last day of October.  Both teams have played 7 games this season.  This game is about the matchups between and 2015 Cardinals and 2015 Titans as I see it. 

[thunderdog]

Let me also just say, if #54 Sean Garvey is still rocking that mustache, I'd be in favor of an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty any time he makes a tackle... Oh lighten up everyone, it's just a joke

[izzy stradlin]

You can't deny that past years don't tell us anything about the future.  Absolutely zero?  That's seems to be what you're saying and that's flat out wrong. 

How about week one?  Is that too long ago.  Some teams have more that 5 new starters and several season ending injuries.

If we are talking about the preseason poll, or discussing a matchup very early in the season, then yes, I'm all about looking at a program's recent history.

But we are talking about a game being played on the last day of October.  Both teams have played 7 games this season.  This game is about the matchups between and 2015 Cardinals and 2015 Titans as I see it.

I am going to let this go here, but if Vegas were to hire you as an odds maker, they would be in serious trouble.  I assure you that they look past the current year in football, even if it is to a lesser degree.  You are saying close your eyes to past years completely.... yikes.   In my line of work, N=7 is still infinitely too small. 

[izzy stradlin]

NCC's loss to Wheaton last week was just their 3rd conference loss since the aforementioned loss to IWU in 2009. Wow!

Wow is right.  I am not a North Central College fan by any means, but I am still buying what John and Jeff Thorne have going in Naperville. 

I was a baseball/basketball player and never played football, but have come to appreciate college football much more than those two because it's much more about a program than a few good players.  There are so many more moving parts, more lifting/training, five times the recruiting, more coaches to manage, simply way more work and with that a more difficult process in developing a good program.  That's why I admire what Mike Swider does at Wheaton, what the Thornes have done at NCC, what UMU has done to an even greater extent.

[Neverwas]

First - I totally understand Wheaton has struggled in Bloomington and IWU is very good this year.  But as a Wheaton fan, assuming they win out, what is the desired outcome for Wheaton this weekend between NCC and IWU?

If IWU loses this weekend and next will they be a RRO at 8-2? 
If NCC loses four games to four ranked teams (UWP might not be though after 11 weeks) would they be regionally ranked?

I lean towards wanting NCC to win to have 7-3 NCC and 8-2 IWU but I wonder how strong of a resume Wheaton would have at 10-0. 

There is a lot of football left to be played but I would think that is good enough for at least the #2 seed in the North.

[USee]

It's a two edged sword. We are a bit early to think about seeding. Wheaton (and IWU/NCC) first order of business is to win the AQ. If Wheaton wins out they will almost assuredly be a 2/3 seed which gives them one home game and possibly 2 (if they are the 2 seed). As far as NCC/IWU this weekend there are two schools of thought. If you assume Wheaton wins out then you definitely want NCC to win this weekend. That gives them the best shot at a #2 seed as NCC and IWU would likely be ranked in the region and 2 wins vs RRO is a good thing. If you are worried about Wheaton losing to IWU then you want IWU to win this weekend. That avoids the 3 way tie scenario and if NCC wins the automatic bid via pool C (by beating IWU and then IWU winning over Wheaton) then Wheaton could be in trouble for Pool C, even at 9-1. Wally Wabash will have more analysis this week on Pool C (check the Pool C board under the "general" tab)  but Wheaton's resume with a loss to IWU and NCC winning the AQ is bad. First of all they will be behind IWU in Pool C and their SOS is no good. The criteria would not be kind to the Thunder in that situation. Especially if we end up with 3 one loss teams in the MIAC as well as UWW in the WIAC, which is still possible.

[79jaybird]

Ugh!  Another 2nd half loss.  I am not sure why Elmhurst continues to lose the grip on games that they hang tough in, only to fall short.  This was a different IWU team in the 4th quarter, so whatever Normy said to his boys  worked.   

Right now, I think IWU is in a good spot.  They have WC/NC at home, but anything can happen. 

[wally_wabash]

It's a two edged sword. We are a bit early to think about seeding. Wheaton (and IWU/NCC) first order of business is to win the AQ. If Wheaton wins out they will almost assuredly be a 2/3 seed which gives them one home game and possibly 2 (if they are the 2 seed). As far as NCC/IWU this weekend there are two schools of thought. If you assume Wheaton wins out then you definitely want NCC to win this weekend. That gives them the best shot at a #2 seed as NCC and IWU would likely be ranked in the region and 2 wins vs RRO is a good thing. If you are worried about Wheaton losing to IWU then you want IWU to win this weekend. That avoids the 3 way tie scenario and if NCC wins the automatic bid via pool C (by beating IWU and then IWU winning over Wheaton) then Wheaton could be in trouble for Pool C, even at 9-1. Wally Wabash will have more analysis this week on Pool C (check the Pool C board under the "general" tab)  but Wheaton's resume with a loss to IWU and NCC winning the AQ is bad. First of all they will be behind IWU in Pool C and their SOS is no good. The criteria would not be kind to the Thunder in that situation. Especially if we end up with 3 one loss teams in the MIAC as well as UWW in the WIAC, which is still possible.

This is all pretty spot on.  Best case scenario for Wheaton, IMO, is for IWU to beat North Central this weekend and set up a winner take all game the following week in Bloomington.  If Wheaton were to lose that game, they wouldn't be behind one of their co-champions in that scenario, which is good for at-large positioning. 

[Neverwas]

Wouldn't best case scenario be NCC winning Saturday and then Wheaton beating IWU on 11/7?  That would, likely, give Wheaton the extra regionally ranked result.  Or, 10-0 is 10-0 and they won't have the extra meat on the resume regardless to jump any other team? 

Maybe I need to take USee's advice and find the Pool C discussion but it sure looks like UST, Linfield, Wabash, Mount, Wesley, UMHB and DIII undefeated UW-O will be favorites in their remaining games to finish undefeated, not to mention a few teams behind Wheaton in the rankings.  That is a lot of possible/probable 10-0 (9-0) teams to fit into the bracket.  Feel free to tell me to come back in two weeks...