FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

AndOne,

A couple of corrections:

Wheaton is currently on a 26 game regular season win streak (includes non conference games)
NCC is not passing more this season but they are passing with more success. Of their 272 plays to date they have 158 rushes and 114 passes.
I hope the game in two weeks comes down to our backup QB vs yours!!

[ExTartanPlayer]

We know NCC likes to schedule tough non conference opponents and it has been well documented how this strategy can really hurt you if you don't win your league (see 2015). So Jeff Thorne may have intentionally scheduled higher quality NAIA opponents because he gets the best of both worlds. He plays higher quality opponents that feeds the philosophy of preparing your team to play at a high level, AND he doesn't penalize his team if they happen to lose one of these games as they don't "count" against their D3 record. I think its a smart idea if that is the strategy.

Ask 2014 UW-Oshkosh how that strategy worked out.

[AndOne]

AndOne,

A couple of corrections:

Wheaton is currently on a 26 game regular season win streak (includes non conference games)

NCC is not passing more this season but they are passing with more success. Of their 272 plays to date they have 158 rushes and 114 passes.

I hope the game in two weeks comes down to our backup QB vs yours!!

Yes, yes, 26. Not 29.

The high degree of success in the passing game certainly makes it seem like the Cardinals are passing more. 

Your last statement makes it seem like you're hoping that your QB, Mr. Bowers, sustains an injury.     

[USee]

AndOne,

A couple of corrections:

Wheaton is currently on a 26 game regular season win streak (includes non conference games)

NCC is not passing more this season but they are passing with more success. Of their 272 plays to date they have 158 rushes and 114 passes.

I hope the game in two weeks comes down to our backup QB vs yours!!

Yes, yes, 26. Not 29.

The high degree of success in the passing game certainly makes it seem like the Cardinals are passing more. 

Your last statement makes it seem like you're hoping that your QB, Mr. Bowers, sustains an injury.     

To clarify, I definitely do NOT want injury for any player certainly not Rutter or Bowers. Just saying we could convince our respective sides to settle this with a battle of the backups I think my side would be agreeable. 

[wesleydad]

And One, how are you doing my friend.  Looks like you have a pretty good team to watch this year.  They have been playing well and it will be interesting to see how they do against Wheaton.  Are they as good as they look from afar?  Good luck the rest of the year.

Yes, the Cardinals are very fundamentally sound, tough, and exciting to watch.
Without delving into too deep of an analysis, here are a few things I've noticed so far this season:

* QB on a football team might be the single most important position in all of the major sports. Last year the Cards were ably led by a freshman who posted very good numbers, and showed the potential to be an excellent player in the future. This season, however, they have had the good fortune to have a D1 QB transfer into the program. Broc Rutter, only a freshman eligibility wise, has completed 63.6% of his passes for 1,069 yards and 11 TDs vs only 2 INTs in four games. His efficiency rating is 174.6.
And, should he get hurt, into the game can come a much more than capable backup.

* The Cards are a generally young and deep team. Among the centers, guards, tackles, and TEs on the O line, the current 2 deep chart shows no seniors. They have especially excelled at pass blocking.
Among the other positions on the offensive side of the ball, 2 of the 3 starting WRs are seniors whose experience with things like running routes, I think, aids the freshman QB. Starting RB Austin Breunig, who led the conference in rushing last year, is also a junior.
The Cards lead the conference in successful 3rd Dow conversions. 

* While probably lacking what can be called a superstar, the WR corps, led by Alex Ulmer, as a whole are experienced, athletic, tough, and results orientated. They always seem to be where the QB expects them to be, and always seem to be able to make the tough catch.

* On defense, the Cards do not currently start any seniors either on the line or at any of the three LB
spots. There is some bend to their overall D line and LB play, but not much break.
The secondary is probably NCC's most experienced area overall. 3 of the 4 starters are seniors. With 9 INTs so far, they both defend the pass, and support the run very well.

* The Cards lead the league in:
- Punting
- Preventing the opponent from converting on 3rd down,
- Turnover margin.

** Despite the above, NCC still faces tough competition ahead, particularly in the form of Wheaton which has now racked up 29 regular season conference wins in a row.

Areas for Improvement

* As previously posted about, the Cards are running less, and throwing more this season. However, when they do run, the run blocking needs to improve as they sit only in 5th place in the conference in average yards gained per rush.

*  NCC is currently only 7th in average yards per kick-off return.

Just a few things. Not a complete list by any means. 

Thanks for the reply.

[wally_wabash]

Nice article in ATR on NCC. Nice job by Clyde Hughes in profiling the Cardinals.

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/midwest/index


I found this quote by Jeff Thorne of particular interest:

"We know it's not about who you've lost to, it's who you've beaten," said Jeff Thorne, the second-year head coach at North Central after serving under his father as assistant coach. "We played great against those teams, but the reality is that we lost. We know the rules in Division III, if you don't win your conference, you better be clean in your non-conference slate. That's how the system works.

"Those are lessons not only our players learned but our coaches learned. Those are things you remember as a coach and you make sure those things don't re-occur."

He obviously has been reading Pat's stuff on D3.com. More than that this makes me wonder if NCC has decidedly shifted their non conference strategy in a way no one else is really thinking about. We know NCC likes to schedule tough non conference opponents and it has been well documented how this strategy can really hurt you if you don't win your league (see 2015). So Jeff Thorne may have intentionally scheduled higher quality NAIA opponents because he gets the best of both worlds. He plays higher quality opponents that feeds the philosophy of preparing your team to play at a high level, AND he doesn't penalize his team if they happen to lose one of these games as they don't "count" against their D3 record. I think its a smart idea if that is the strategy.

I think NCC scheduled whoever picked up the phone and said "sure, why not".  Thank God Webber International said yes because they're the last call before you send a raven to Monterrey Tech.  In any case, losing either of those games would have been bad for NCC if they also went on to lose to Wheaton.  Those games might not pop up in the SOS math and don't count in that specific way, but they'd take a rankings hit for sure.  ETP acutely pointed out the Oshkosh Incident of 2014.   

Also, and I think this is important, neither of those two NAIA teams are ranked in the top 25 which means that neither of these teams are in the top third of their division (just 86 NAIA teams).  They are not "higher quality NAIA opponents".  Not according to the NAIA coach's poll anyway. 

[USee]

Another trend I am seeing in the statistics is Wheaton, under Jesse Scott, has changed their run v pass ratio this season. Each of the last two years, under Josiah Sears, the Thunder were pretty consistently 60% run and 40% pass. This season, through 5 games, they are 52% run and 48% pass. You can argue some of this was situational (the way Carthage played us etc) but I think it's been a change based on play calling preference. It hasn't been injury related either. Sola Olateju was back in full force against IWU and Wheaton had 34 rushes (for 191 yds and 5.6 ypc) and 35 passes.

When you are more balanced I believe it's also harder to use play action in the passing game. Wheaton has had similar run game production this year to last so I would think you would want to pound the rock more and let the defense, which is one of the better units they have had, defend fewer plays.

[izzy stradlin]

Another trend I am seeing in the statistics is Wheaton, under Jesse Scott, has changed their run v pass ratio this season. Each of the last two years, under Josiah Sears, the Thunder were pretty consistently 60% run and 40% pass. This season, through 5 games, they are 52% run and 48% pass. You can argue some of this was situational (the way Carthage played us etc) but I think it's been a change based on play calling preference. It hasn't been injury related either. Sola Olateju was back in full force against IWU and Wheaton had 34 rushes (for 191 yds and 5.6 ypc) and 35 passes.

When you are more balanced I believe it's also harder to use play action in the passing game. Wheaton has had similar run game production this year to last so I would think you would want to pound the rock more and let the defense, which is one of the better units they have had, defend fewer plays.

Without looking at the numbers, I wonder if this is simply the result of fewer designed QB keepers?  Peltz used to get 15 or more carries under Sears.  Problem was Wheaton ended up with Bowers/Peltz injured multiple times in the last 2 years.  I am all for feeding Sola, but like that the QBs might take fewer hits.   QBs scrambling to space when the opportunity presents is slightly different.

[Gregory Sager]

Nice article in ATR on NCC. Nice job by Clyde Hughes in profiling the Cardinals.

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/midwest/index


I found this quote by Jeff Thorne of particular interest:

"We know it's not about who you've lost to, it's who you've beaten," said Jeff Thorne, the second-year head coach at North Central after serving under his father as assistant coach. "We played great against those teams, but the reality is that we lost. We know the rules in Division III, if you don't win your conference, you better be clean in your non-conference slate. That's how the system works.

"Those are lessons not only our players learned but our coaches learned. Those are things you remember as a coach and you make sure those things don't re-occur."

He obviously has been reading Pat's stuff on D3.com. More than that this makes me wonder if NCC has decidedly shifted their non conference strategy in a way no one else is really thinking about. We know NCC likes to schedule tough non conference opponents and it has been well documented how this strategy can really hurt you if you don't win your league (see 2015). So Jeff Thorne may have intentionally scheduled higher quality NAIA opponents because he gets the best of both worlds. He plays higher quality opponents that feeds the philosophy of preparing your team to play at a high level, AND he doesn't penalize his team if they happen to lose one of these games as they don't "count" against their D3 record. I think its a smart idea if that is the strategy.

I think NCC scheduled whoever picked up the phone and said "sure, why not".  Thank God Webber International said yes because they're the last call before you send a raven to Monterrey Tech.

I suspect that Wally is correct. NPU, which is not a CCIW program that strikes fear into the hearts of D3 coaches, was also unable to find an opponent within the division and had to go the NAIA route as well. When you've got three schools within a nine-school league that have to go outside D3 to fill out the sked -- and, yeah, I know that Illinois Wesleyan brought in los Borregos Salvajes because of a cancellation by D3 Lawrence -- then it seems to me that non-conference scheduling for CCIW football programs may be becoming less a matter of strategic planning and more a matter of simple necessity.

Perhaps the whole point will become moot in '18 when Wash U joins the league and everyone's reduced to one non-con game apiece.

[USee]

Another trend I am seeing in the statistics is Wheaton, under Jesse Scott, has changed their run v pass ratio this season. Each of the last two years, under Josiah Sears, the Thunder were pretty consistently 60% run and 40% pass. This season, through 5 games, they are 52% run and 48% pass. You can argue some of this was situational (the way Carthage played us etc) but I think it's been a change based on play calling preference. It hasn't been injury related either. Sola Olateju was back in full force against IWU and Wheaton had 34 rushes (for 191 yds and 5.6 ypc) and 35 passes.

When you are more balanced I believe it's also harder to use play action in the passing game. Wheaton has had similar run game production this year to last so I would think you would want to pound the rock more and let the defense, which is one of the better units they have had, defend fewer plays.

Without looking at the numbers, I wonder if this is simply the result of fewer designed QB keepers?  Peltz used to get 15 or more carries under Sears.  Problem was Wheaton ended up with Bowers/Peltz injured multiple times in the last 2 years.  I am all for feeding Sola, but like that the QBs might take fewer hits.   QBs scrambling to space when the opportunity presents is slightly different.

If you go back and look at the numbers it's pretty revealing. We have stayed with a 60-40 run v pass ratio in almost every game. The only game previous to this year (going back 2 years) where we threw it more than we ran it? Whitewater last year. And we averaged 4.1 yds per carry and had 475 yds of offense including 126 on the ground.

Both of the the last two years against NCC we have run the ball 40-50 times and passed it 20-30. Bowers ran it 11x vs NCC last year and 9x vs Whitewater. In 2014 Peltz ran it 22x vs NCC.  We have averaged over 5 yds a carry in both those NCC games. This year, with our defense, it seems that ratio is even more important. If you can run it for 5 yds a carry and give your QB's 8-10 runs (5-6 designed and a few scrambles) why wouldn't you want to do that?

It's not that hard to run the ball 60% of the time and limit your QB rushes. And with 2 undefeated conference QB's on the roster why would you?

[CardinalAlum]

One game at a time.  Take care of the Park in the city first and set up one heck of a game next week!

[CardinalAlum]

Mugsy and USee,

Making the trip South of Roosevelt?

[Mugsy]

Mugsy and USee,

Making the trip South of Roosevelt?

Seeing how I already live "SoRo" (which is a derogatory comment for those in Glen Ellyn, not so much in Wheaton), it isn't as far to drive.  Only 6 miles.  I'm planning on being there, with a slight possibility of being a bit late if my son's swim meet runs long.

[CardinalAlum]

Mugsy and USee,

Making the trip South of Roosevelt?

Seeing how I already live "SoRo" (which is a derogatory comment for those in Glen Ellyn, not so much in Wheaton), it isn't as far to drive.  Only 6 miles.  I'm planning on being there, with a slight possibility of being a bit late if my son's swim meet runs long.

I'll save you a seat in the end zone for alumni!   

[Mugsy]

Mugsy and USee,

Making the trip South of Roosevelt?

Seeing how I already live "SoRo" (which is a derogatory comment for those in Glen Ellyn, not so much in Wheaton), it isn't as far to drive.  Only 6 miles.  I'm planning on being there, with a slight possibility of being a bit late if my son's swim meet runs long.

I'll save you a seat in the end zone for alumni!   

I should clarify.  "SoRo" is not derogatory for Wheaton residents.  For Wheaton students and alum... there is nothing worse than being "SoRo".  SoRo could be this years "SoDup" nomenclature during Bell week?