FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[HansenRatings]

USee, good stuff up there, +k.

Here's how my opponent-adjust stats see things lining up:

.	UMHB	Wheaton
Scoring Margin:	#3 (+47.24 ppg)	#8 (+38.13 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#3 (53.79 ppg)	#16 (44.86 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#7 (6.55 ppg)	#9 (6.73 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#1|#1 (+4.90 ypp|+7.57 any/p)	#3|#5 (+3.86 ypp|+5.18 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#3|#3 (7.60 ypp|8.66 any/p)	#6|#7 (7.18 ypp|7.88 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#2|#1 (2.70 ypp|1.09 any/p)	#6|#16 (3.32 ypp|2.70 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#3|#3 (6.47 ypp|7.68 any/p)	#13|#14 (5.65 ypp|6.24 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#1|#1 (1.68 ypp|1.08 any/p)	#17|#23 (2.85 ypp|2.95 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#9|#7 (9.67 ypp|10.40 any/p)	#12|#8 (9.47 ypp|10.37 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#3|#1 (3.63 ypp|0.86 any/p)	#2|#8 (3.44 ypp|1.77 any/p)

[wildcat11]

good article on Wheaton on the front page:

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/wheaton-defense-december

Also a hint to the Thunder game plan for this weekend:

"We've played well defensively all year," Swider said. "Our defensive line is strong and we are great against the run. I've never heard anyone say a defense is great if it hasn't been able to stop the run. We have to do that Saturday and keep the ball in front of us defending the pass."

that's not really surprising as Wheaton's defense has been a "stop the run and don't give up big pass plays" defense all year. MHB comes in with the #1 scoring offense in the nation and the #12 rushing offense (272 yds a game). Wheaton comes in with the #2 ranked rush defense and #12 ranked total defense.

On the other side MHB has the #26 ranked total defense and is #6 in rush defense led by 3 time POY Teidrick Smith (13 sacks, 20 TFL).

As someone who has the misfortune to see this UMHB team up close twice this season the biggest difference between this year's UMHB team and the ones in the past is their QB Blake Jackson.  I still don't understand why UMHB platooned him the previous two seasons but that was a blessing for Linfield in 2014 and 15.

Jackson is the best duel threat QB in the country and can extend passing plays with his legs and still deliver an accurate ball on the run and some of his best runs don't come off designed runs but during broken plays.  He's electric in the open field and a tough out when they run their Run/Pass/Option game.  Sounds like Wheaton has a great d-line so pressure obviously will be a big deal against their play action game as UMHB has dudes that can fly down the field.

I don't know much about Wheaton's offense but stretch zone, side-to-side run games will be pretty much ineffective against the Cru. You have to get North/South.   Their defense can be had in the passing game as they are not a complex defense but their d-line did such a great job in pressuring Linfield this past weekend it made it tough to convert when we needed it. 

UMHB is a hell of a team but so is Wheaton.  Best of luck!

[DFWCrufan]

Interesting take Wildcat, many of the crufaithful thought the same. We liked Zack Anderson in his Sophomore year and was at the helm of the great 2013 Cru, he was incredible, but in his Junior year his play just sort of got muddled, I don't think he could read the situation as well as Blake does. Last season I think we would have seen more of Blake but he was injured mid season and just got back up to speed just before our Round three with Linfield, infact the horrible bad overhead snap was on Blakes rotation. 

I think the temperature of the Cru right now is really really hungry, defense is gelling very nicely and Blake is the driving force behind the Offense. If a team is going to gel , this is the time...I think they ware there, but I am interested to see this matchup not knowing all that much about Wheaton. I watched their NCC matchup and their quickness is deceiving and quick strikes in the defensive gaps could be detrimental.

[USee]

I watched UMHB a couple of games this year. Very impressive at every position. Love their OLine, though not this week. Physical run blockers. The Lb's are fast and fly to the ball. I don't know how Wheaton matches up but this is the best Wheaton team, overall and depth, we have had in our playoff runs and by far the best defense overall. If MHB wins it will be because they earned it and were better as this Wheaton team is as good overall as we have had in my view. On Offense Wheaton has a great RB, a great dual threat QB and probably the best TE in the country in Zach Lindquist to go along with a quality stable of WR's.

I am very worried about Teidrick Smith, he is a disruptive player who doesn't stay blocked. I don't understand why Linfield tried to cut block him, he doesn't go down. I hope he has some bad pasta on Friday night. And Blake Jackson reminds me of Lamar Jackson from Louisville, dangerous. The RB and WR are explosive. Wheaton will have to be disciplined and tackle really well to have a chance.

[matblake]

I am very worried about Teidrick Smith, he is a disruptive player who doesn't stay blocked. I don't understand why Linfield tried to cut block him, he doesn't go down. I hope he has some bad pasta on Friday night.

If you look at the pictures of game action that UMHB has on their site, he appears to be in every defensive photo.  Very concerning for the Thunder.

[USee]

USee, good stuff up there, +k.

Here's how my opponent-adjust stats see things lining up:

.	UMHB	Wheaton
Scoring Margin:	#3 (+47.24 ppg)	#8 (+38.13 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#3 (53.79 ppg)	#16 (44.86 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#7 (6.55 ppg)	#9 (6.73 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#1|#1 (+4.90 ypp|+7.57 any/p)	#3|#5 (+3.86 ypp|+5.18 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#3|#3 (7.60 ypp|8.66 any/p)	#6|#7 (7.18 ypp|7.88 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#2|#1 (2.70 ypp|1.09 any/p)	#6|#16 (3.32 ypp|2.70 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#3|#3 (6.47 ypp|7.68 any/p)	#13|#14 (5.65 ypp|6.24 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#1|#1 (1.68 ypp|1.08 any/p)	#17|#23 (2.85 ypp|2.95 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#9|#7 (9.67 ypp|10.40 any/p)	#12|#8 (9.47 ypp|10.37 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#3|#1 (3.63 ypp|0.86 any/p)	#2|#8 (3.44 ypp|1.77 any/p)

No idea what "opponent adjusted" means or how you come up with these stats but it looks cool.

[HansenRatings]

No idea what "opponent adjusted" means or how you come up with these stats but it looks cool.

I explained it over on the WIAC board. Essentially those numbers would be the team's results versus an average team (relative DIII football nationwide).

[D3MAFAN]

I watched UMHB a couple of games this year. Very impressive at every position. Love their OLine, though not this week. Physical run blockers. The Lb's are fast and fly to the ball. I don't know how Wheaton matches up but this is the best Wheaton team, overall and depth, we have had in our playoff runs and by far the best defense overall. If MHB wins it will be because they earned it and were better as this Wheaton team is as good overall as we have had in my view. On Offense Wheaton has a great RB, a great dual threat QB and probably the best TE in the country in Zach Lindquist to go along with a quality stable of WR's.

I am very worried about Teidrick Smith, he is a disruptive player who doesn't stay blocked. I don't understand why Linfield tried to cut block him, he doesn't go down. I hope he has some bad pasta on Friday night. And Blake Jackson reminds me of Lamar Jackson from Louisville, dangerous. The RB and WR are explosive. Wheaton will have to be disciplined and tackle really well to have a chance.

I thought the same thing, but maybe Wheaton has a Houston moment and comes with some exotic contain blitzes to limit his scrambling and ability to keep plays alive.

[umhb2001]

Does anyone know if the Wheaton game from Saturday has archived video anywhere?

[Mugsy]

Does anyone know if the Wheaton game from Saturday has archived video anywhere?

Video from home games would be available via Wheaton website, however this game was in Naperville.  Game streaming for North Central games is through local cable station (http://www.nctv17.com/).  It may be available there.  I'll check later, unless someone else finds it.

[DFWCrufan]

Yes the NCC game took a little work to find it, I believe if you search Youtube to the NCC channel, that is where I found the complete game.

I'm not sure about the past with NCC and Wheaton, but it seemed that this game had a little bit more bite to it than just losing a round,  which is bad enough, The NCC announcers, who were pretty good at the call, seemed deflated...is there something more to this loss than ending their playoff run?

In any case, I hope for safe journeys for the Wheaton staff and team, and hope for a fantastic game and that ya'll will find a warm (well relatively it should be 48 degress and wet) welcome. Come early, go to the Bawcom center that flanks the stadium, have some starbucks or chik fil a  or other edibles and just enjoy. Head to the large windows and you can spy the pre game before gates open.

[thunderdog]

Congrats to the NCC Cardinals on a fantastic 11-1 season. I thought the post game press conference with HC Jeff Thorne, QB Broc Rutter, and LB Justin Stuursma was as classy as classy gets. Their complimentary comments for the Wheaton program and overall compusure highlight what a top notch program NCC is. I said the same thing after the Oct 15th loss... I have nothing but respect for the NCC Cardinals. What a fantastic, healthy rivalry this has been for the past 15 years. Looking forward to next year's Battle for the Bell...

[thunderdog]

Three comments from a relative outsider:
-Congrats to Wheaton College for such an impressive victory.
-Sola must elevate his game in the playoffs as I thought he was outstanding vs UWW last year. I'm surprised he didn't have huge numbers in regular season.
-Receiver Trey Hanley is a stud. It looks like he's got moves, speed, strength and toughness.

emma17,
Sola is playing as well as any RB in the country right now. I also didn't really realize what a special talent he was until last year's UWW matchup. His explosiveness and ability to break tackles was particularly evident in that game. Don't let the lack of regular season #'s fool u, the WC offense as a whole is peaking at the right time. Saturday's game at NCC was by far the best 60 minutes that WC has played all year (the 2nd half of the IWU game was the only other game that comes close). I pointed out before the NCC game that this is a different team (in comparison to the middle of the season) as far as cohesiveness and confidence.
As for #13 Trey Hanley, he burst onto the scene in the 2015 NCC game when he caught an "unexpected" TD in a tight 17-9 victory... He hasn't looked back. Very reliable hands, sneaky fast, and best of all, runs with an ANGER after the catch. He is probably 2nd on the team (behind Sola) in broken tackles. He's been a big-time playmaker for the Thunder.

[izzy stradlin]

Does anyone know if the Wheaton game from Saturday has archived video anywhere?

Video from home games would be available via Wheaton website, however this game was in Naperville.  Game streaming for North Central games is through local cable station (http://www.nctv17.com/).  It may be available there.  I'll check later, unless someone else finds it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1YSf7GZNr8

[D O.C.]

Thanks Izzy