FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

#6 North Park:

Returning Starters: 20

Offense: 10 (5 OL, 4 WR, 1 RB). Key losses: QB TD Conway. Best players returning: WR Kadarius Daniels, RB Kvonte Spearman

Defense: 10 (3 DL, 4 LB's, 3 DB's). Key losses: S Frantz Dorcely. Best players returning: LB Chaun Maiava, S Matt DiFecchio, C David Simmons

Expectations were much higher for NPU going into 2016 than the actual results. With 20 starters back from last year's team I suspect those expectations, at least internally, are back. NPU was better than their record indicated last year. Two stats tell the story in my opinion. Turnovers and passing efficiency. NPU's defense had the 2nd highest number of takeaways in the conference last year with 25. The next best team had 20 (Wheaton). The problem is NPU turned it over a league high 30 times last year and the next worst team had 20 (IWU). The other statistic is the passing game numbers. Worst in the league 48% completion % and 18 INTS on just 11 TD's. Those 30 turnovers put NPU's defense on the field more than any other team in the league and kept them from converting on drives. NPU is talented. WR Devin Childress and LB Chaun Maiava are two of the best players in the league at their positions and the Vikings have 20 starters back. If they can get better play from the QB position this year (thereby turning it over less, keeping the D off the field, and scoring more points), they will be much better than they were a year ago. Prediction 4-6, 3-5

[USee]

# 5 Augustana:

Returning Starters: 16

Offense: 9  Key losses: WR Danny Lattner. Best players returning: WR Ryan Henessey, RB Ryan Pitra

Defense: 7   Key losses: LB Jack Asquini, Frank Kalble. Best players returning: DB John Asquini, LB Danny Giffels

Augie performed much lower than expectations in 2016 as they had a veteran group returning on both sides of the ball. The only real loss on offense is WR Danny Lattner but the emergences of Ryan Hennessey and Andrew Garcia will mute that effect. Augie returns 4 of 5 OL and most of their RB production. If they can get more consistent play from the QB position, (53% completion and 14 TD/9 INT) they should be better on offense. Defensively they have to replace leading taklers/playmakers Jack Asquini and Frank Kalble but they have some experienced players ready to step in like LB Grant Burke (4 sacks/26 tackles) and Devin Haxby (19 tackles). Augie should be 2 games better next year if only because the teams ahead of them may come back to the pack. Prediction 5-5, 4-4

[Gregory Sager]

Who in the world is Chuck Maiava?

Does Chaun Maiava have a little brother or cousin back in Samoa that I don't know about who is coming to NPU this coming year?

[USee]

Who in the world is Chuck Maiava?

Does Chaun Maiava have a little brother or cousin back in Samoa that I don't know about who is coming to NPU this coming year?

Ooops. Blasted auto correct doesn't speak Samoan....

[Gregory Sager]

An autocorrect program that speaks Samoan. The mind reels.

[Ralph Turner]

An autocorrect program that speaks Samoan. The mind reels.

Auto-correct in Samoan...

I am amazed at how many languages a cell phone can speak! 

      

[Gregory Sager]

In this case, Ralph, the problem was that it didn't speak Samoan.

What's funny is that it had no problem with his far more Samoan-looking surname, but messed up his given name.

[USee]

In this case, Ralph, the problem was that it didn't speak Samoan.

What's funny is that it had no problem with his far more Samoan-looking surname, but messed up his given name.

There is no obvious auto correct for Maiava. But the clear auto correct for Chaun is Chuck I guess. I would have gone with Shawn personally.

[Gregory Sager]

... which would've been an almost human spelling mistake, since that's how he actually pronounces his name.

[USee]

I inadvertently missed one of my previews, Millikin, which I added here (and re-numbered my previous teams accordingly)

#7 Millikin:

Returning Starters: 14

Offense: 7 (3 OL, 3 WR, 1 QB). Key Losses: OL Sean Nicholson and Glenn Morgan. Best players returning: Nicco Stepina, Gerald Perry

Defense: 7 (3 DL, 1 LB, 2 DB). Key losses: DT Travis Goveia, LB Isaiah Tate. Best players returning: Quintaz Wright

Millikin is a bit of an enigma. They have most of their key performers back from last years 4-6/3-5 team including QB Nico Stepina, WR Gerald Perry and DE Quintaz Wright. Their numbers did not show them to be a consistent team and 14 Int's while finishing last in the league in turnover margin didn't help. They were a very young team last year and this year's team is a year older with some key players needing to step up if they want to improve their record. Gerald Perry led the league in receptions per gme and scored 6 TD's. Nicco Stepina was the leagues #1 player in total offense and if he cuts his INT's in half while increasing his TD's by just 25%, Millikin will be a much better team. Prediction: 3-7, 2-6

[CardinalAlum]

#6 North Park:

Returning Starters: 20

Offense: 10 (5 OL, 4 WR, 1 RB). Key losses: QB TD Conway. Best players returning: WR Devin Childress

Defense: 10 (3 DL, 4 LB's, 3 DB's). Key losses: S Frantz Dorcely. Best players returning: LB Chaun Maiava, C David Simmons

Expectations were much higher for NPU going into 2016 than the actual results. With 20 starters back from last year's team I suspect those expectations, at least internally, are back. NPU was better than their record indicated last year. Two stats tell the story in my opinion. Turnovers and passing efficiency. NPU's defense had the 2nd highest number of takeaways in the conference last year with 25. The next best team had 20 (Wheaton). The problem is NPU turned it over a league high 30 times last year and the next worst team had 20 (IWU). The other statistic is the passing game numbers. Worst in the league 48% completion % and 18 INTS on just 11 TD's. Those 30 turnovers put NPU's defense on the field more than any other team in the league and kept them from converting on drives. NPU is talented. WR Devin Childress and LB Chaun Maiava are two of the best players in the league at their positions and the Vikings have 20 starters back. If they can get better play from the QB position this year (thereby turning it over less, keeping the D off the field, and scoring more points), they will be much better than they were a year ago. Prediction 4-6, 3-5

Wasn't sure if it was mentioned previously that he had declared, but NPU WR Devin Childress went undrafted as an early entry into the NFL Draft...

He got bad advice somewhere.

USee,

Not sure you saw my post above from April.   Does this change your thoughts on where NPU falls?

[USee]

#6 North Park:

Returning Starters: 20

Offense: 10 (5 OL, 4 WR, 1 RB). Key losses: QB TD Conway. Best players returning: WR Devin Childress

Defense: 10 (3 DL, 4 LB's, 3 DB's). Key losses: S Frantz Dorcely. Best players returning: LB Chaun Maiava, C David Simmons

Expectations were much higher for NPU going into 2016 than the actual results. With 20 starters back from last year's team I suspect those expectations, at least internally, are back. NPU was better than their record indicated last year. Two stats tell the story in my opinion. Turnovers and passing efficiency. NPU's defense had the 2nd highest number of takeaways in the conference last year with 25. The next best team had 20 (Wheaton). The problem is NPU turned it over a league high 30 times last year and the next worst team had 20 (IWU). The other statistic is the passing game numbers. Worst in the league 48% completion % and 18 INTS on just 11 TD's. Those 30 turnovers put NPU's defense on the field more than any other team in the league and kept them from converting on drives. NPU is talented. WR Devin Childress and LB Chaun Maiava are two of the best players in the league at their positions and the Vikings have 20 starters back. If they can get better play from the QB position this year (thereby turning it over less, keeping the D off the field, and scoring more points), they will be much better than they were a year ago. Prediction 4-6, 3-5

Wasn't sure if it was mentioned previously that he had declared, but NPU WR Devin Childress went undrafted as an early entry into the NFL Draft...

He got bad advice somewhere.

USee,

Not sure you saw my post above from April.   Does this change your thoughts on where NPU falls?

I don't have any idea what's going on w Childress. I am going under the assumption that he is returning to NPU, which may be wrong. Even if it is wrong, my analysis doesn't change much. NPU was better than 0-8 last year and if they get better QB play this year, they will be a better team. Losing a talent like Childress, if that's the case, is probably worth at least 1 more win and likely 2 but in my view that just limits their upside. The other variables were such a big factor for NPU last year that any modest improvement in turnovers, offensive efficiency, and even special teams, will result in 3-4 wins given the level of talent in the program.

If everything improves AND Childress is added to the mix, NPU could be a 5-5 team in my opinion. All that is based on backward looking data, with no visibility for me as to who is/isn't returning (e.g. I have no idea their QB depth, recruit quality, other players returning/not returning, 5th year returnees, etc)

Finally, Greg is the resident insider for NPU and, while I don't take his silence as any kind of implicit agreement with my views, I do think he would address any factual mistakes in my post.

[USee]

#4 IWU:

Returning starters: 12

Offense 8 (5/5 OL, 1 TE, QB). Key Losses: RB MSG, WR Dominic Comfort. Best players returning: QB Brandon Bauer/Jack Warner, OL Connor Melvin

Defense 4 (3 DB's, 1 DL). Key Losses LB's Garvey, Roth, Fahey, DE Venhuizen, DC Travis Rundle. Best players returning: DL Josh Akin, DB Brinton Wilkey, LB Jordan Hassan

I believe KVH has another year of eligibility remaining, which could affect the outlook of this team but the fact is IWU lost a lot of talent. On offense they bring back 2 CCIW starting QB's (I have seen this  movie) and their entire OL but they lose their top 4 WR's and top two RB's. With a good QB and a veteran OL they shouldn't fall too far. Defensively they return only 4 starters and that's a potential problem. They have some large holes to fill, especially up front. They have experience in the secondary but also have a new Defensive Coordinator. They added transfer safety Nico Gubenko, who appears to be slotted as a starter. They also lost their punter and placekicker. It's hard to see how IWU is going to be better this year than the team that finished 8-2 a year ago. We will definitely find out how well recruiting has been going when we see the level of talent replacing the guys that graduated. This could be a rebuilding year for the Titans. Prediction: 6-4, 5-3

[USee]

#3 Carthage:

Returning starters: 15

Offense 7 (4/5 OL, RB, 2WR). Key Losses: TE Javier Rhodes. Best players returning: WR James Cobb, RB Jamel Davis

Defense 8 (3 DL, 1 LB, 4 DB's). Key losses: LB Greg Money, LB KJ Simpson. Best players returning: C Connor Calvert, DL Cedrick Fry, DL Jacob Simar, DE Pete Laughlin

Carthage has the core of their group returning from last year's team that started well and lost some momentum through the year. They have most of the OL and DL returning from units that were #3 in the league in rushing and #2 in stopping the run. With WR James Cobb and RB Jamel Davis, they have two of the most dynamic players in the league. If they can find a QB who can complete a deep ball, they will be much better on Offense (they were 3rd in the conference last year in Total Off and scoring offense). Their defense needs replacements for LB's Greg Money and KJ Simpson, no easy task, but they return a talented group of DB's and an experienced DL that will allow them to continue to pressure teams relentlessly for 4 quarters. When you can run the ball and stop the run, you have the ability to compete in most games. Carthage could be the 3rd best team in the CCIW this year and are a team that could provide a challenge to the top 2, though they play both on the road. Prediction 7-3, 5-3

[HansenRatings]

Decided I'm going to spam every conference board with my preseason (non-returning-starter-adjusted, but I'll probably do so for the CCIW once USee is done with his analysis) projections.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
NCC	0.9898	8.0-1.0	7.1-0.9
Wheaton	0.9880	9.1-0.9	7.2-0.8
IWU	0.9025	6.2-3.8	5.1-2.9
Carthage	0.8476	5.9-4.1	4.6-3.4
Elmhurst	0.7867	5.6-4.4	4.0-4.0
Augustana	0.6972	3.8-6.2	3.4-4.6
Millikin	0.4511	2.9-7.1	1.8-6.2
Carroll	0.3848	1.7-8.3	1.4-6.6
North Park	0.3683	2.4-6.6	1.5-6.5

My projections missed really badly on Augustana last season, placing them in the Top 25 preseason thanks mostly to returning all 11 defensive starters. Not making the same mistake this year, with everything looking about the way I would expect it. NCC & Wheaton are basically equally good, with Wheaton having the slight edge in win totals thanks to HFA against NCC.