FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[HOPEful]

No, by placing less value on the result of that game because it was under unusual circumstances, you are assuming that the second half would have been more like the first if it hadn't.     

It's not an assumption of anything.  It's more of an incomplete grade than anything else.  You keep saying that the voters are assuming one thing but that's not the case- and in doing so aren't you making the assumption that a second half on Saturday night would have gone the same way it did on Monday?  It's hard to process a game that is so severely bifurcated. 

I don't even really think Wheaton should be ranked any differently.  I just thought it was interesting they didn't move much after that result.  Also, I don't think Wheaton will be in the tournament.

This really doesn't jive with the swipe you took at the poll that started the conversation.  If Wheaton's placement is fair, why the knock? 

And I don't think Wheaton will be in the tournament either, but Heidelberg folding like a lawn chair helped immensely.  Before that result, there was absolutely no way for Wheaton to go in.  Now, I think there's a plausible path for Wheaton to get to the table.  Still a lot of dominoes to fall, but those dominoes can fall for anybody who remembers the 2008 week 11 playoff bubble apocalypse.

Wheaton is a VERY unusual case this season. To pretend otherwise, in either direction, is ignoring the variables surrounding this team. From the scandal, to the 2 losses, to the huge Carthage win, to the huge, yet strange, North Central win... nothing about ranking them is clear cut.

I'm more surprised that Trine wasn't able to crack the top 25 after twomping Hope than anything to do with Wheaton's ranking.

[Neverwas]

Wally,

Maybe I have to wait for your Pool C post or Regional Rankings but what is Wheaton's best shot at the tournament outside of the AQ? I just don't see a way they make the tournament and IWU doesn't.  So not only would Wheaton be 8-2 they would also be the third CCIW team.  I can see a path to sitting at the table, the what-ifs aren't too crazy, but wonder the chance they are selected?

[Kovo]

Assuming NC wins out the rest of the season, would either Wesleyan or Millikin be considered for playoffs with only one loss?  IWU really is the better of the 2 teams, so I believe they would be much more likely.  Also Carthage most likely will beat MU this weekend in Carthage. Interesting to note that on the MU 2-deep 44 man lineup only 3 are seniors and 14 are freshmen.  They are scary good for an underclass roster.

Why?  They have three common opponents so far (Augie, Wheaton, and Carroll).  MU is 3-0 and Carthage is 2-1.  Maybe Carthage wins but I don't think that it is a forgone conclusion.

[iwu70]

And what happens if CC beats NCC on the 4th?, which, after seeing CC close up this last week, I think is a possibility.  Their D against the run is just awesome.

I'm in the camp that says WC doesn't make the playoffs, at 8-2. 

IWU has to win out, over EC away and over MU at home.  Doable, but not an easy game at home vs. MU.

One game at a time, keep winning and things go well.

IWU'70

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

Maybe I have to wait for your Pool C post or Regional Rankings but what is Wheaton's best shot at the tournament outside of the AQ? I just don't see a way they make the tournament and IWU doesn't.  So not only would Wheaton be 8-2 they would also be the third CCIW team.  I can see a path to sitting at the table, the what-ifs aren't too crazy, but wonder the chance they are selected?

It basically involves mass hysteria in the North region such that Wheaton winds up as the second at-large team in the region (behind, presumably a CCIW co-champion).  No 9-1 OAC teams was a big deal and probably the biggest hinderance to that.  The rest of the stuff that needs to happen for Wheaton to be the second at-large team in the region:
- Wittenberg wins the NCAC AQ (9-1 non-qualified Wittenberg probably blocks Wheaton)
- Trine wins the MIAA AQ (9-1 Trine may also be a problem for  Wheaton)
- Millikin loses a pair down the stretch (Wheaton and Millikin having even records is not a great thing for Wheaton)

You could do a similar thing with IWU, but IWU only has two games left- kind of a layup against Elmhurst and then a play-in game with Millikin.  Doubtful they'd lose both, and if they lose only to Millikin, I think the Titans still stay ranked ahead of Wheaton.  So really, Wheaton realistically has to concede to IWU and hope Millikin finishes poorly. 

That would (probably) get Wheaton to the table.  Then we'd have to a do a wait-and-see with Wheaton's SOS (which is about to take a nosedive) and see if Millikin stays ranked so that Wheaton gets credit for an RRO result.  And this would be where Wheaton's 42-20 result vs. North Central would be massive- even if the poll voters are diluting the result somewhat, the selection committee shouldn't do that.  And 42-20 over the region's #2/3 team would be a pretty big deal.  And a last second loss to another ranked team (IWU) would also look better than some of Wheaton's likely competition for one of those last spots (those teams usually have 1 loss or 2 losses and at least one is a really ugly loss to a good team).  None of that is a guarantee for Wheaton, but it could be a respectable 2-loss profile at the end of the voting process and it might be enough depending on what else happens around the country.  The last time Wheaton was in this spot, they snuck in, messed around a bit, and went to the semifinals.  Some incredibly smart people picked Wheaton to be in the semifinals this year in Kickoff...so who knows.  Lots of games to be played yet this season. 

[Neverwas]

Alright, thank you.  Now I know the desired results.

[AndOne]

An update on the Wheaton case. Not taking either side. Just presenting the current status and possible outcome based on my experience and a little research.

Four of the Wheaton 5 football players charged in the recent hazing incident at the College were formally arraigned at 9:00 AM this morning before Judge Brian Telander in Courtroom 4004 at the DuPage County Courthouse in Wheaton. The four, Kyler Kregel, Ben Pettway, Noah Spielman, and Samuel TeBos all pled not guilty to charges of unlawful restraint, aggravated battery, and mob action.
Because the charges other than mob action are felonies, all four players were required to appear in court accompanied by their attorneys. The most serious of the charges carries a possible sentence of 2-5 years in prison. The players next appearance is scheduled for October 31, at which time it is expected that various petitions by the players' defense attorneys will be heard. The fifth defendant, James Cooksey, whose case is for some reason being heard separately, will be arraigned on November 13.

Having worked on some cases in conjunction with some of the local police departments as well as the County Sheriff Detective Division during my investigative career, as well as having an acquaintance who is a retired DuPage County judge, I would venture there are some aspects of the case that will work in favor of both the prosecution and the defense.

In extensive previous discussion on this board, one of the points Wheaton supporters have repeatedly extolled is the fact that Wheaton College conducted it's own internal "investigation" the result of which was that the Wheaton administration found the player's explanation more plausible than the plaintiff's.
However, there seem to be two problems with this as related to any defensive strategy. First while colleges are not required to report cases of hazing, they are required to report to local authorities any incident on campus that results in any type of bodily injury. I believe this is by Federal Statute. I don't believe the WC administration did this, again, choosing instead to conduct it's own internal investigation. Also, and more importantly, Wheaton's investigation really carries no weight legally as the court will depend on the Wheaton police and States Attorney's investigations which will include statements from all of the involved witnesses to the alleged incident.
Second, the defense seems to view as weakening the prosecution's case, the fact that a lengthy period transpired between when the incident occurred and when charges were filed. However, both a former county judge and an out of county prosecutor felt this action would likely actually result in being more favorable to the prosecution. The reason is simple. If charges would have been filed within a few months, the defense attorneys would have screamed, probably in unison, "rush to judgement," and would have argued the prosecutor was too anxious to bring charges in hopes of obtaining a headline conviction without first taking the required time to conduct a thorough investigation.

Now, it's important to point out a major consideration favoring the players. Evidence suggests that all five of the players are Christian young men who have led exemplary lives of service, scholarship, and achievement. This is very important. These are not bad kids who have been guilty of previous transgressions. They have done missions work and freely given of themselves. The Court, almost certainly, will take this into consideration. It may be found that the worst thing the players are guilty of is a temporary lack of good judgment. If so, they may well have violated Wheaton's anti-hazing policy or some facet of the Covenant Agreement Wheaton students have to sign, and they may face separate (non legal) consequences as a result. But that's another subject.

In summary, I would be completely shocked if this case/cases result in any jail time. From my previous involvement with the DuPage County judicial system, my information from both a former judge and a prosecutor, and a little research involving other hazing related cases, it would not be surprising if a plea agreement is reached in this case. Such an Agreement would result in the felony charges involved here being dismissed or pled down to misdemeanors and the defendants pleading guilty to a misdemeanor or misdemeanors with something like a fine of $500-$1,000, 100 hours of community service, and a period of supervision pending conditional discharge with no permanent mark against the young men. Perhaps we'll even see a complete "not guilty" verdict rendered. Time will tell.

[AndOne]

And what happens if CC beats NCC on the 4th?, which, after seeing CC close up this last week, I think is a possibility.  Their D against the run is just awesome.

I'm in the camp that says WC doesn't make the playoffs, at 8-2.

IWU has to win out, over EC away and over MU at home.  Doable, but not an easy game at home vs. MU.

One game at a time, keep winning and things go well.

IWU'70

I don't think its just Wheaton. I would be surprised if any CCIW team with two losses makes the playoffs. Especially when it looks like chances are pretty high that we'll have two (or more?) teams finish with just one loss.

[Gregory Sager]

Assuming NC wins out the rest of the season, would either Wesleyan or Millikin be considered for playoffs with only one loss?  IWU really is the better of the 2 teams, so I believe they would be much more likely.  Also Carthage most likely will beat MU this weekend in Carthage. Interesting to note that on the MU 2-deep 44 man lineup only 3 are seniors and 14 are freshmen.  They are scary good for an underclass roster.

Why?  They have three common opponents so far (Augie, Wheaton, and Carroll).  MU is 3-0 and Carthage is 2-1.  Maybe Carthage wins but I don't think that it is a forgone conclusion.

I also don't think that this:

Wally,

Maybe I have to wait for your Pool C post or Regional Rankings but what is Wheaton's best shot at the tournament outside of the AQ? I just don't see a way they make the tournament and IWU doesn't.

... is a foregone conclusion, either, if the implication is that IWU is a lock rather than the alternative reading (to which Wally also alluded, the idea that Wheaton has almost no chance of passing IWU in the regional ranking). Not the Wheaton part; the IWU part. I agree with USee that, while the Titans will be the favorite over the Big Blue, the outcome of that game is by no means predetermined. Millikin could very well win it, and I say that as someone who has seen both of the downstate teams firsthand. The Big Blue have the best quarterback and the best wide receiver in the league, and enough other good pieces to be very dangerous.

But, yeah, I agree with Kovo that it's not clear-cut that Carthage is going to beat Millikin, either.

[USee]

If you are a Wheaton fan there are 2 paths to the playoffs and both of them require lots of "stuff" to happen. The problem is some of that stuff could make it worse.

Path 1: AQ

Requires a quagmire in the final 3 weeks of CCIW play with Carthage beating Millikin, Millikin beating IWU and Carthage beating NCC (with all others holding serve). That creates a 5 way 6-2 tie where Wheaton is likely the AQ via double digit point differential. Not impossible and maybe even plausible, but certainly not the betting man's route.

Path 2: Pool C

Wally has outlined this path already. The problem is some version of Path 1 and Path 2 would be bad. E.G. IWU with 2 losses and NCC at 9-1 dooms the Thunder. Millikin also muddies the waters at 8-2, though Wheaton will have wins over both teams Millikin lost to. Wheaton also wanted RHI to beat Franklin and we need UWW to win out, all of which helps the downward sloping SOS. IWU's SOS is very low, which is puzzling. But basically a 9-1 IWU and a 9-1 NCC is a good thing for Wheaton's Pool C, as long as they are the next team up and can get to the table with 3 rounds or so left, then its a crapshoot. Phase 1 is get to the table, which is far from a foregone conclusion. Phase 2 is get selected, which is even more uncertain.

[AndOne]

USee,

Maybe it's just how I'm taking it, but is sounds like you sense Path 1 is more likely than Path 2.
If so, I think I agree. 
But, neither is probably a good bet.

[wally_wabash]

And just to clarify- what I outlined below as Wheaton's Pool C path is strictly a view on what has to happen in the North region for Wheaton to be in a position to be discussed for selection.  I haven't even taken into account what's going on in other regions to thin the national herd enough for Wheaton to be viable.  There are likely some more things that need to happen in other regions in addition to what I've noted below for Wheaton to make the tournament. 

I do think the biggest and most unlikely hurdle to the whole thing was cleared on Saturday when Heidelberg lost to a team Heidelberg had no business losing to.  That result came out of nowhere and really cleared the deck for everything else we've talked about here.  Without Marietta beating Heidelberg, Wheaton really had zero chance.  Now they at least have a nonzero chance. 

[USee]

USee,

Maybe it's just how I'm taking it, but is sounds like you sense Path 1 is more likely than Path 2.
If so, I think I agree. 
But, neither is probably a good bet.

I have no opinion on either path and actually think they are both unlikely. But I thought Carthage had a good shot at beating IWU (they almost did) and I think they can beat NCC, though the offensive firepower of NCC is much more formidable than IWU and the defense of NCC is not as good as IWU. I think Millikin can beat IWU. I think IWU is about a 5 pt favorite over Millikin right now and I would set NCC/Carthage at about NCC -9.5.

The most likely scenario is IWU and NCC at 9-1 and Wheaton on the outside looking in.

[wm4]

USee,

Maybe it's just how I'm taking it, but is sounds like you sense Path 1 is more likely than Path 2.
If so, I think I agree. 
But, neither is probably a good bet.

I have no opinion on either path and actually think they are both unlikely. But I thought Carthage had a good shot at beating IWU (they almost did) and I think they can beat NCC, though the offensive firepower of NCC is much more formidable than IWU and the defense of NCC is not as good as IWU. I think Millikin can beat IWU. I think IWU is about a 5 pt favorite over Millikin right now and I would set NCC/Carthage at about NCC -9.5.

The most likely scenario is IWU and NCC at 9-1 and Wheaton on the outside looking in.

And to bring other regions into the mix, as Wally says, what happens if Platteville can't get past Whitewater?  They'd be sitting at 8-2, and third in their conference.  That would really only leave one WIAC team in for sure.  And if Concordia gets past St Johns, you'd have Platteville, Wheaton, St John's and Concordia all at 8-2.  How many of those get in via Pool C?

[izzy stradlin]

No, by placing less value on the result of that game because it was under unusual circumstances, you are assuming that the second half would have been more like the first if it hadn't.     

It's not an assumption of anything.  It's more of an incomplete grade than anything else.  You keep saying that the voters are assuming one thing but that's not the case- and in doing so aren't you making the assumption that a second half on Saturday night would have gone the same way it did on Monday?  It's hard to process a game that is so severely bifurcated. 

I am starting to guess you are a voter.  If so I am sorry and I shouldn't have bothered. They are absolutely making an assumption if they treat the game any different than what the score shows at face value. You really can't argue that statement. Someone else could just as easily say "I think Wheaton was going to go on a bigger run without the delay and therefore they should move up more"--an equally incorrect line of thinking.  As soon as you don't take the score for face value, you allow in for a flood of biases which by definition lead to more error.   

I am not assuming the game would be exactly like what happened--All I know that is that I have no idea what would've happened. Neither does anyone else.  To say less of a blowout, more of a blowout, more likely a NCC win or anything other that what happened is making an assumption in one direction or another.