FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[DuffMan]

Here are the Johnnie Game Notes.

[CardinalAlum]

Here are the Johnnie Game Notes.

That's well done!

[DuffMan]

Here are the Johnnie Game Notes.

That's well done!

Thanks!  Our SID does a helluva job.

[USee]

For many playoff games the comparative statistics and national rankings aren't very useful because the teams play vastly different schedules and different quality of opponents so the stats of each team are tough to draw conclusions. For the NCC v St John's game, I believe this is an exception. The two conferences are top 5 conferences with at least 4 quality teams at the top (in fact the 4th place teams played each other Carthage 31 Bethel 0). Their SOS are 76th and 79th respectively. Both have played a top ten opponent and 2 top 25 opponents. St Johns played a couple of bad teams in St Scholastica and Presentation while NCC played Robert Morris and WashU.

All in all I think the stats and nationial rankings are more meaningful than they otherwise would be. So looking through the stats comparison the StJU SID put out:  http://www.gojohnnies.com/documents/2017/11/16/111817_NorthCentralNCAA_GameNotes.pdf


Here are the categories St Johns is ranked top 10 nationally:

3rd Down Defense
Defensive TD's
1st Down Defense
Pass Yards allowed
Scoring Defense
Teams Pass efficiency
Defensive Pass efficiency
Total Defense
Turnovers lost

And the categories where NCC is top 10:

Rushing Defense
3rd Downs conversions
Red Zone Offense
Teams Sacks
Tackles for Loss

I have bolded the statistics that stuck out to me as I think about this matchup. North Central has an offense that has performed against against a top 10 defense and another top 25 defense. Both teams run the ball roughly 60% and throw 40%. Both have tall, strong armed, accurate QB's. The QB's have similar season stats but Rutters big game stats are considerably better than Erdmans. St Johns has a defense that is extremely quick and athletic and has a great pass defense. North Central has a physical OLine and young, talented WR with the last two POY in the backfield (Breunig-RB and Rutter-QB). The game plan for North Central is run the ball at them and give Rutter time to throw. The Johnnies have an outstanding pass defense and a stout run defense (ranked 12th nationally). This will be a battle of the trenches. I don't think blitzing Rutter is a good plan. He is too smart and knows exactly where to go with the ball.  If the Johnnies can win up front or even draw even, their pass D will give them an edge. I  think the range of points for NCC vs STjU is 14-28 and I would be surprised if it was much outside that range.

The key to the game is the St Johns offense vs the NCC Defense. St Johns will run the ball and pass it efficiently. They are #1 in the nation in turnovers lost. Only 8 giveaways for the year. They don't give up the ball much and the are patient, waiting for their defense to give them opportunities. The NCC defense is #10 nationally at stopping the run and #2 in the country in sacks. Up front is where the battle lays. If the St Johns Oline can run the ball and give Erdmann time to throw, St Johns has an edge as the Cardinal pass defense is vulnerable (see Wheaton). If the Cardinals penetrate the LOS like they have all year and stop the run as well as get to the QB, they have the advantage. I think St Johns has to score 21-24 to win. If NCC holds them to 14 or less, North Central wins.

In the end I believe this game is a toss up. I tried to get myself to favor the Cardinals by a few for home field and then found myself favoring the Johnnies by a few. In the end, the turnover stats are compelling. St Johns is not going to give the football away and, while NCC is good at taking care of the ball, a couple of turnovers may be the difference.

With no turnovers I think NCC wins by 4
If St Johns wins the turnover battle I think they win by 4

[CardinalAlum]

For many playoff games the comparative statistics and national rankings aren't very useful because the teams play vastly different schedules and different quality of opponents so the stats of each team are tough to draw conclusions. For the NCC v St John's game, I believe this is an exception. The two conferences are top 5 conferences with at least 4 quality teams at the top (in fact the 4th place teams played each other Carthage 31 Bethel 0). Their SOS are 76th and 79th respectively. Both have played a top ten opponent and 2 top 25 opponents. St Johns played a couple of bad teams in St Scholastica and Presentation while NCC played Robert Morris and WashU.

All in all I think the stats and nationial rankings are more meaningful than they otherwise would be. So looking through the stats comparison the StJU SID put out:  http://www.gojohnnies.com/documents/2017/11/16/111817_NorthCentralNCAA_GameNotes.pdf


Here are the categories St Johns is ranked top 10 nationally:

3rd Down Defense
Defensive TD's
1st Down Defense
Pass Yards allowed
Scoring Defense
Teams Pass efficiency
Defensive Pass efficiency
Total Defense
Turnovers lost

And the categories where NCC is top 10:

Rushing Defense
3rd Downs conversions
Red Zone Offense
Teams Sacks
Tackles for Loss

I have bolded the statistics that stuck out to me as I think about this matchup. North Central has an offense that has performed against against a top 10 defense and another top 25 defense. Both teams run the ball roughly 60% and throw 40%. Both have tall, strong armed, accurate QB's. The QB's have similar season stats but Rutters big game stats are considerably better than Erdmans. St Johns has a defense that is extremely quick and athletic and has a great pass defense. North Central has a physical OLine and young, talented WR with the last two POY in the backfield (Breunig-RB and Rutter-QB). The game plan for North Central is run the ball at them and give Rutter time to throw. The Johnnies have an outstanding pass defense and a stout run defense (ranked 12th nationally). This will be a battle of the trenches. I don't think blitzing Rutter is a good plan. He is too smart and knows exactly where to go with the ball.  If the Johnnies can win up front or even draw even, their pass D will give them an edge. I  think the range of points for NCC vs STjU is 14-28 and I would be surprised if it was much outside that range.

The key to the game is the St Johns offense vs the NCC Defense. St Johns will run the ball and pass it efficiently. They are #1 in the nation in turnovers lost. Only 8 giveaways for the year. They don't give up the ball much and the are patient, waiting for their defense to give them opportunities. The NCC defense is #10 nationally at stopping the run and #2 in the country in sacks. Up front is where the battle lays. If the St Johns Oline can run the ball and give Erdmann time to throw, St Johns has an edge as the Cardinal pass defense is vulnerable (see Wheaton). If the Cardinals penetrate the LOS like they have all year and stop the run as well as get to the QB, they have the advantage. I think St Johns has to score 21-24 to win. If NCC holds them to 14 or less, North Central wins.

In the end I believe this game is a toss up. I tried to get myself to favor the Cardinals by a few for home field and then found myself favoring the Johnnies by a few. In the end, the turnover stats are compelling. St Johns is not going to give the football away and, while NCC is good at taking care of the ball, a couple of turnovers may be the difference.

With no turnovers I think NCC wins by 4
If St Johns wins the turnover battle I think they win by 4

Great stuff as always, USee!

[DuffMan]

Great analysis, USee!  I'm hoping for an exciting game to watch.  SJU's regular season finale last week was a doozy, and I hope this one is, too (a few more TDs would be nice).  Actually, a Johnnie Monkey Stomp^TM would be nice--I get overly worked up in tight contests!

As long as the Cardinals are turning in their pads and helmets on Monday, I'll be a happy camper.

SJU!  SJU!  SJU!

[USee]

I actually think a higher scoring game favors St Johns and a lower scoring game favors North Central. That is counter intuitive but fits with what I believe is the game plan for each team and the most important matchup which is StJU Offense vs NCC defense. I think we all know the StJU D is going to play well, they have all year. And if Broc Rutter and company score more than anyone else has been able to, then kudos to better offense. But if St Johns offense controls the LOS and gives Erdmann time to get the ball to guys like Evan Clark, look out. If this is a shootout, the Johnnies D has a much better chance of getting a critical stop late in the game and their offense will have solved the Cardinal defensive front so the Johnnies chances to win go up dramatically.

On the flip side, if the NCC defensive holds St Johns Offense in check by penetrating the LOS, getting TFL and sacks while Rutter and company get time to figure out the Johnnie D, I think that favors North Central significantly.

Battles I am going to watch early to get an indication are the North Central Oline vs the St Johns defensive front. The Johnnies are not big up front and they move around a lot causing havoc. The North Central OLine likes to get their double teams and chip off to the linebacker fairly quickly. Sharmore Clarke (LG) and Joe Fehrle (LT) are physical and athletic. If they are staying on blocks for Bruenig and giving him lanes early, that's a good sign for NCC.

Like wise I am interested in the offensive gameplan for St Johns. They are going to run the ball and use Erdmann's accuracy to get it to some talented WR. I am watching to see if the Johnnies OL can get Krueger 3-4 yds a run and keep Erdmann clean for some down the field throws.


For NCC to win I like a 14-10 game

For St Johns to win I think 34-31 is the ticket.

[art76]

With no turnovers I think NCC wins by 4
If St Johns wins the turnover battle I think they win by 4

+K USee

[miac952]

I have trouble seeing the Johnnie running game getting momentum. They played 3 defenses this year that were Top 25 ish in Hansen Ratings D. UST @ 2, Concordia @ 9, Bethel @ 28.

Rushing yards in those games were: 1, 87, 117. They were 15 / 46 in 3rd downs in those 3 games, largely because they get behind the chains and D's tee off on Erdmann with a blitz. If SJU is scoring and winning tomorrow, it will be because they mixed up the play calling a bit with some quick & efficient passing and Erdmann walks away with a stat line similar to his Bethel game (17-22 for 260, 3/1)

If North Central has success on Offense, it will be because they hit on a deep shot at some point, and got a short field or two. The Johnnies give a little up the middle in the running game too, due to lack of size. UST had some nice 8-12 yard pops with basic FB dives and trap blocks for the TB.

I am guessing fairly low scoring. 23 - 17 or something along those lines.

[AndOne]

Often times the kicking game can spell the difference in a closely contested contest.

Should it come to that, NCC punter Zane Lodico led the CCIW with a (only punter > 40.0) 40.7 average.
FG kicker Liam Crotty tied for third in the nation hitting on .923% of his attempts (12-13).

The Cardinals ranked 4th in the nation in red zone efficiency at .929% (56 red zone attempts - 52 scores) so they don't necessarily kick often. However, when they do it, they do it pretty well.

Gentlemen,

As I said previously, the kicking game/special teams can often be the difference in a tight game. Nobody seems to be giving this much consideration. However, in a game where just about everyone's opinion seems to be that it will be a very close contest, kicking might well spell the difference. Field position. Pin the other team deep with your punting, rely on your D to provide a short or relatively short field, and kick the FG if you can't put up six.
NCC has both a very good punter and FG kicker. I don't know about SJU. They might have equal talent. Either way, I just get the feeling this aspect of the game might well be the difference maker tomorrow. 🏈

[DuffMan]

I have trouble seeing the Johnnie running game getting momentum. They played 3 defenses this year that were Top 25 ish in Hansen Ratings D. UST @ 2, Concordia @ 9, Bethel @ 28.

Don't get me wrong because I think Kruger is a good back, but he's not a power back, and it frustrates me to no end that they try to pound him like he is.  They've got other backs that for that bill, and I wish they'd use them in that capacity.

[DuffMan]

NCC has both a very good punter and FG kicker. I don't know about SJU. They might have equal talent.

Go take a look at who the d3football.com punter of the week is. 

SJU has an excellent kickoff man, and their FG kicker is solid, though they haven't attempted a ton of FGs.  Due to playoff roster restrictions, I wonder if they'll bring 2 kickers...

[jamtod]

NCC has both a very good punter and FG kicker. I don't know about SJU. They might have equal talent.

Go take a look at who the d3football.com punter of the week is. 

SJU has an excellent kickoff man, and their FG kicker is solid, though they haven't attempted a ton of FGs.  Due to playoff roster restrictions, I wonder if they'll bring 2 kickers...

MIAC limit is 60 right? And playoffs goes down to 52?

[Pat Coleman]

Correct on both counts.

[USee]

Often times the kicking game can spell the difference in a closely contested contest.

Should it come to that, NCC punter Zane Lodico led the CCIW with a (only punter > 40.0) 40.7 average.
FG kicker Liam Crotty tied for third in the nation hitting on .923% of his attempts (12-13).

The Cardinals ranked 4th in the nation in red zone efficiency at .929% (56 red zone attempts - 52 scores) so they don't necessarily kick often. However, when they do it, they do it pretty well.

Gentlemen,

As I said previously, the kicking game/special teams can often be the difference in a tight game. Nobody seems to be giving this much consideration. However, in a game where just about everyone's opinion seems to be that it will be a very close contest, kicking might well spell the difference. Field position. Pin the other team deep with your punting, rely on your D to provide a short or relatively short field, and kick the FG if you can't put up six.
NCC has both a very good punter and FG kicker. I don't know about SJU. They might have equal talent. Either way, I just get the feeling this aspect of the game might well be the difference maker tomorrow. 🏈

AndOne,

You are correct and special teams could well prove to be the turning point. I didn't address it in my analysis because both teams seem to have excellent special teams players and coverage units. Any lapse such as turnover, penalty, etc. could easily be the difference in field position and ultimately the outcome.