FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

USee, you know teams play eleven, right?  IWU rarely puts 7 in the box, and that would still leave 4 in coverage.  I think you'll see tighter corners and varied attempts and schemes to get pressure on Rutter, make him "move off his spot" as was said.  I also expect Bauer to figure more largely in the running game than he surely did at MU.  The IWU defense has continued to improve, so I'd expect their best effort, performance this Saturday.  At least in the CCIW scheme of things, I think they are better than average.  Of course, they gave up lots of yardage, esp. against the very good passing attacks of MU and Wash U, but wins are wins.  The time of possession stat in this case, re:  the IWU offense, is very telling.   That's their M.O. all season, so far.  Now we'll see if they can bring an undefeated CCIW campaign home against the top-flight talent of NCC.  I'm sure both coaches and coaching staffing doing all they can, gaming out all the prospects and match-ups for this one.  It should be a great game.

IWU'70

[USee]

IWU70

I'm pretty comfortable with my grasp of the numbers around IWUs defensive scheme  if that's what your asking. Happy to dive into more detail if you want to discuss it.

As for defense, wins are wins when you have IWUs WRs and Bauer.  Pretty sure that group is responsible for at least some, if not most,  of your wins. And #6 defense in the CCIW is almost by definition average if I'm being fair. 

[iwu70]

USee, surely agree our consistent and productive O is largely responsible for the undefeated record in CCIW play.  While the IWU D is not as strong as last year, I think it's pretty good, perhaps good enough to win the CCIW this year.  We'll see.  If you were to draw up a plan to stop NCC, what would you do?   

No doubt IWU D has to play better than they have in some games this year.  But, overall, the TITANS seem to get the job done and get the W, even if it's a bit ugly and uncertain at times.  CC and Wash U were decided very late, even on the last play.  WC win was close too.  But, Ws are Ws.  7-0 is 7-0.  Though the D gave up lots to MU, the outcome of that one was never really in that much doubt, esp. after the two early 3Q TDs, made possible by defensive plays, INTs.

Seems the team that can really put it all together on Saturday on both sides of the ball has the best chance to win.   Should be fun to watch, hopefully a close exciting game with no injuries, few penalties.

IWU'70

[bleedpurple]

USee, surely agree our consistent and productive O is largely responsible for the undefeated record in CCIW play.  While the IWU D is not as strong as last year, I think it's pretty good, perhaps good enough to win the CCIW this year.  We'll see.  If you were to draw up a plan to stop NCC, what would you do?   

No doubt IWU D has to play better than they have in some games this year.  But, overall, the TITANS seem to get the job done and get the W, even if it's a bit ugly and uncertain at times.  CC and Wash U were decided very late, even on the last play.  WC win was close too.  But, Ws are Ws.  7-0 is 7-0.  Though the D gave up lots to MU, the outcome of that one was never really in that much doubt, esp. after the two early 3Q TDs, made possible by defensive plays, INTs.

Seems the team that can really put it all together on Saturday on both sides of the ball has the best chance to win.   Should be fun to watch, hopefully a close exciting game with no injuries, few penalties.

IWU'70

Ya think? 

[USee]

USee, If you were to draw up a plan to stop NCC, what would you do?   

IWU'70

I would do what Wheaton did, which has the best defense in the league and the #17 defense in the nation and still gave up 30 pts, I would outscore them.

[USee]

In all seriousness, I would try to be creative in the run game and go on long scoring drives that eat clock. Wheaton won because they were getting touchdowns early and holding NCC to FG's. Every time Wheaton got the ball they scored and it put more and more pressure on NCC to keep pace. Eventually Wheaton got a couple turnovers and a stop or two and that was enough.

[AndOne]

On the basketball board, we see references to the Massey Ratings pretty frequently throughout the season. However, appearances by Massey here in football land seem rare.

FWIW, Massey has NCC with a 57% of beating IWU, with a final score of NCC 34; IWU 31.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out: 
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/first-regional-ranking

[iwu70]

AO, Massey seems to have a more realistic assessment of what might happy in the NCC-IWU face-off this Saturday.   As mentioned, I think the game pretty much a toss up, within 3 points or so.

Glad to see the TITANS high in the regional rankings, at least for now. 

Should be fun atmosphere, great game this weekend.

'70

[GRIZ_BACKER]

North Region Playoff Projection and Seeding as of 10/31/18 if projected conference winners hold suit.  NC and ILW could flip and Wabash most likely last team in if Denison wins tiebreaker as expected.  Obviously inter-regional brackets due occur as well and host teams have to apply.  But based on the numbers this is close (IMO)

[USee]

AO, Massey seems to have a more realistic assessment of what might happy in the NCC-IWU face-off this Saturday.   As mentioned, I think the game pretty much a toss up, within 3 points or so.

Glad to see the TITANS high in the regional rankings, at least for now. 

Should be fun atmosphere, great game this weekend.

'70

Hansen Ratings now has the spread at NCC -5.3

[AndOne]

My initial read on the IWU/NCC game is that these two teams are very similar. Both have high powered offenses and defenses that can be had. I like NCC's defense a little better overall but I have a hard time seeing how the Cardinals are going to cover those IWU WR's. I think both these passing games are dynamic and both teams have struggled to run the ball in games this season. It's clearly the top 2 QB's in the conference and Rutter is in the conversation for best in the country. That said Bauer has been so good in the biggest games this year. In these big games it usually comes down to special teams and turnovers. That said I actually believe the team that can run the ball the best will likely win. Running the ball keeps the other offense off the field, which may be the difference. Ultimately I like IWU's ability to run a little more than NCC's in part because of Alexander but more so because Bauer is a bigger running threat than Rutter.

I don't think NCC is going to have any more trouble covering the IWU receivers than IWU will have with NCC's.

* NCC's WRs Kamienski & Sfikas compare favorably with IWU's Healy & Walsh. The IWU duo has a combined 129 more yards receiving than does the NCC twosome. However, the 2 IWU receivers have 12 TD catches, but the NCC guys have 14. And 3rd NCC received Cory Hartema has 4 more TDs.
NCC has passed for 23 TDs, but has only given up 7 through the air.

* QB is the most important position on the field. IWU's Bauer is very, very good, but NCC's Rutter "is in the conversation for the best on the country."

* You stay in the game with your offense, but you win with defense. USee says "I like NCC's defense a little better overall." Perhaps it will be the difference.

* I sense the main problem NCC might have with Alexander is not his rushing, but keeping him from piling up big gains after receiving a screen or pass in the flat.

* In a close game, the kicking game and turnovers could well prove the difference. NCC kicker Derik Judka is 11/11 in FGs and 44/45 on X Pts. On the minus side, the Cardinals put the ball on the ground 4 times last week. A return performance against IWU would likely spell doom.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, the goblins and ghouls (and princesses, and hobos, etc.) have departed for another year.  It's interesting how the neighborhood goes in cycles.  Right now we have a drought of kids - probably only 20-25 trick-or-treaters all night.  When our kids were young, we got hundreds!  We have probably about two full bags of candy left over - with four grandkids, not a problem!

[USee]

AndOne,

There is a big difference between IWU's WR's and NCC's. Both sets of receivers are excellent, for different reasons. Healy and Walsh are dominant one on one guys, able to go up and get balls even when covered. Healy is a lock like NCC's Sorensen from a few years back. If he is in single coverage, Bauer will just throw it to him and he will catch it most of the time.

Kamienski and Sfikas are great receivers, but neither are going to beat guys one on one. They read defenses and find holes in zones and run across the field vs Man better than anyone. And Rutter is completely on the same page. Much of NCC's offense is based on flooding zones and finding the mismatch, at which Rutter excels.  Bauer doesn't often read the coverage, he runs a ton of RPO (run/pass option) which is the old play action pass with a read. Bauer has really excelled at it and it's the reason IWU is so successful. If you cover the pass, Bauer will give it to Alexander or keep it himself. If you react to the run, he will hit Healy and Walsh.

Both offenses are very effective, but for different reasons.

I agree with your ultimate conclusion, the team that finds a little defense (which could be through turnovers, getting a few stops, or even controlling time of possession, will win.

Having called for a high scoring, offensive shootout, I am sure it will end up as a 10-7 contest.

[AndOne]

I think we can say both sets of receivers get the job done in different ways.
Perhaps we'll see NCC employ the strategy of not letting one player (Healy?) beat them, and he'll draw some double coverage?? But maybe not 🤗 🤫