FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Stagg Again!!]

Interesting defensive statistics...  Looks like it is possible to hold MUC under 40 points (which I wouldn't have thought by reading the boards).

                  HU       JC          NCC
YPG            390      242        255
PPG            22.3     11.5       13.8
PassYPG      283     148         169
RushYPG     127      94           86
MUC Pts.     27       37            ??

If NCC's defense holds MUC to between 27 and 37 points, this will be a pick 'em.  Remember, North Central's offense has already faced off against the #1 defense in the country, and has gotten a lot better and healthier since.  Hoping for rain as the Cardinals always play well in the the rain!!

[edward de vere]

How's that working out for them?  Because people haven't stopped whinging over this for seven straight days. 

The regional rankings and the top 25 are sometimes incongruous.  It happens.  It's far from an injustice.  Our mock bracket had a potential North Central/UMHB R2 game- also a 1 vs. 4 kind of thing.  So it's not like this pairing or the idea that North Central wasn't going to run into a top seed pretty early on was going to be a huge surprise.

Look, if there's absolutely no way geographically for NC to avoid UMHB or Mount Union in the second round, then so be it.  But I find that really hard to believe.  NC's in Illinois, not California ferchrissake.

So then you're looking at this faux objective system based on regional rankings when everybody and his brother has noted that there aren't enough data points for actual objectivity.

I don't have any problem with 27 of the 32 selections going to conference champions.  I can make an equally good case for that OR just going with a subjective selection of the best teams.  But once you get past that decision, the best minds in D3 football should pick the at-large teams subjectively and seed them subjectively, within the geographical financial constraints. 

Will there still be complaints?  Of course!  But other sports and other divisions go the subjective route, based on all the data and all the eye tests and all the history and all the comparative level of play.  They don't wimp out with a phony-baloney "objective" system based on . . . virtually nothing.

(Next week:  I solve the problem of world peace.)

[Titan Q]

Wash U 21
IWU 0

I'm not sure what I just watched really.

I think you watched the results of Brandon Bauer being knocked out.  With him, I expected IWU to win; without him I at least expected a toss-up.  Now I am not at all confident about the Millikin game next week.

We'll finish 6-4 at best, perhaps 5-5.

Is there anyone on campus currently who can succeed Bauer, or are we in for a 2004-06 trough?

I know a great QB transferring to IWU in January. He is a top level talent from a top west suburban high school. He currently is at another school and the only reason he is transferring is due to a major change he wanted long term and IWU offered the program and his current school did not. Top notch player, great kid, and I know his family who are great people. Not good for my blue jays but someone who will be leading IWU the next 4 years. Unfortunately I do not want to give names since he is not enrolled yet but it is confirmed he his transferring to IWU in January. You will be very pleased.

(modified by GS for formatting)

Sounds like Norm got him enrolled in either our Law School, Med School, or MBA program.

[Mr. Ypsi]

How's that working out for them?  Because people haven't stopped whinging over this for seven straight days. 

The regional rankings and the top 25 are sometimes incongruous.  It happens.  It's far from an injustice.  Our mock bracket had a potential North Central/UMHB R2 game- also a 1 vs. 4 kind of thing.  So it's not like this pairing or the idea that North Central wasn't going to run into a top seed pretty early on was going to be a huge surprise.

Look, if there's absolutely no way geographically for NC to avoid UMHB or Mount Union in the second round, then so be it.  But I find that really hard to believe.  NC's in Illinois, not California ferchrissake.

So then you're looking at this faux objective system based on regional rankings when everybody and his brother has noted that there aren't enough data points for actual objectivity.

I don't have any problem with 27 of the 32 selections going to conference champions.  I can make an equally good case for that OR just going with a subjective selection of the best teams.  But once you get past that decision, the best minds in D3 football should pick the at-large teams subjectively and seed them subjectively, within the geographical financial constraints. 

Will there still be complaints?  Of course!  But other sports and other divisions go the subjective route, based on all the data and all the eye tests and all the history and all the comparative level of play.  They don't wimp out with a phony-baloney "objective" system based on . . . virtually nothing.

(Next week:  I solve the problem of world peace.)

I'll eagerly await your next post!

[signed} Chair of the Nobel Peace Prize committee.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wash U 21
IWU 0

I'm not sure what I just watched really.

I think you watched the results of Brandon Bauer being knocked out.  With him, I expected IWU to win; without him I at least expected a toss-up.  Now I am not at all confident about the Millikin game next week.

We'll finish 6-4 at best, perhaps 5-5.

Is there anyone on campus currently who can succeed Bauer, or are we in for a 2004-06 trough?

I know a great QB transferring to IWU in January. He is a top level talent from a top west suburban high school. He currently is at another school and the only reason he is transferring is due to a major change he wanted long term and IWU offered the program and his current school did not. Top notch player, great kid, and I know his family who are great people. Not good for my blue jays but someone who will be leading IWU the next 4 years. Unfortunately I do not want to give names since he is not enrolled yet but it is confirmed he his transferring to IWU in January. You will be very pleased.

(modified by GS for formatting)

Sounds like Norm got him enrolled in either our Law School, Med School, or MBA program.

Alas, we do not have a law school, med school, or MBA program.  But we do have some outstanding undergrad programs, so sounds hopeful.  I hope he is as good as you say.

[Gregory Sager]

Wash U 21
IWU 0

I'm not sure what I just watched really.

I think you watched the results of Brandon Bauer being knocked out.  With him, I expected IWU to win; without him I at least expected a toss-up.  Now I am not at all confident about the Millikin game next week.

We'll finish 6-4 at best, perhaps 5-5.

Is there anyone on campus currently who can succeed Bauer, or are we in for a 2004-06 trough?

I know a great QB transferring to IWU in January. He is a top level talent from a top west suburban high school. He currently is at another school and the only reason he is transferring is due to a major change he wanted long term and IWU offered the program and his current school did not. Top notch player, great kid, and I know his family who are great people. Not good for my blue jays but someone who will be leading IWU the next 4 years. Unfortunately I do not want to give names since he is not enrolled yet but it is confirmed he his transferring to IWU in January. You will be very pleased.

(modified by GS for formatting)

Sounds like Norm got him enrolled in either our Law School, Med School, or MBA program.

I heard that, after consulting his former babysitter Luke Scarlata, the kid narrowed his med school choices down to Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan before choosing IWU.

[kiko]

How's that working out for them?  Because people haven't stopped whinging over this for seven straight days. 

The regional rankings and the top 25 are sometimes incongruous.  It happens.  It's far from an injustice.  Our mock bracket had a potential North Central/UMHB R2 game- also a 1 vs. 4 kind of thing.  So it's not like this pairing or the idea that North Central wasn't going to run into a top seed pretty early on was going to be a huge surprise.

Look, if there's absolutely no way geographically for NC to avoid UMHB or Mount Union in the second round, then so be it.  But I find that really hard to believe.  NC's in Illinois, not California ferchrissake.

So then you're looking at this faux objective system based on regional rankings when everybody and his brother has noted that there aren't enough data points for actual objectivity.

I don't have any problem with 27 of the 32 selections going to conference champions.  I can make an equally good case for that OR just going with a subjective selection of the best teams.  But once you get past that decision, the best minds in D3 football should pick the at-large teams subjectively and seed them subjectively, within the geographical financial constraints. 

Will there still be complaints?  Of course!  But other sports and other divisions go the subjective route, based on all the data and all the eye tests and all the history and all the comparative level of play.  They don't wimp out with a phony-baloney "objective" system based on . . . virtually nothing.

(Next week:  I solve the problem of world peace.)

I'm a little unclear on what the pairings for the bracket have to do with the at-large berth selection process.  These are two different things.

The bracket is built with the assumption that these eight teams deserve to host in the first two rounds: MHB, Whitewater, Wheaton, Chapman, Salisbury, Muhlenburg, MUU, and Wesley.  I can't make an argument for North Central to host over any of those schools.  The next thing to look at is that the MUU bracket is centered around Alliance.  The Purple Raiders are the bridge between an Eastern pod and a Midwestern pod.  Building the bracket this way avoids a flight unless Mount loses.  If I'm the finance guy for the tournament, that's a bet I'd take every time.  (Note: I hope they lose the bet.)

About the only way the committee could have avoided this or a similar matchup for the Cardinals without blowing up what is a really well-constructed bracket would be to swap them with Hope.  But that gives them Whitewater in the second round, which is marginally better at best.  And Hope sits above North Central in the regional rankings, so they earned the right to play the 899-lb gorilla instead of the 900-lb gorilla.

[edward de vere]

1)  Whitewater is a MUCH more reasonable opponent for NC than UMHB or Mount Union.

2)  Is there a person on planet Earth who actually thinks Hope is a better team than NC?  What would the betting line be on a neutral field?

     * Again, we're looking at these blatantly ridiculous FAKE objective standards, in this case the regional rankings.  (FAKE objective standards, because of the woefully deficient data used for the regional rankings.  It's a way to avoid responsibility.)

[kiko]

1)  Whitewater is a MUCH more reasonable opponent for NC than UMHB or Mount Union.

2)  Is there a person on planet Earth who actually thinks Hope is a better team than NC?  What would the betting line be on a neutral field?

     * Again, we're looking at these blatantly ridiculous FAKE objective standards, in this case the regional rankings.  (FAKE objective standards, because of the woefully deficient data used for the regional rankings.  It's a way to avoid responsibility.)

The eye test is also a way to avoid responsibility, as it would effectively shut out half of D3 from potentially ever getting an at-large berth.  I don't by any stretch think that the present selection criteria is perfect -- especially using SOS when there are so few non-conference games.  But the only data we have is better than a smoke-filled room.

In its last four tournament runs, North Central's second round opponents have been MIAC, WIAC, CCIW, and WIAC institutions.  Mount is six levels above most of these teams, but you're not going to get a gimme after the first round in the Midwest, and any of the eight I noted earlier would be a challenge.

[emma17]

I'm not arguing the brackets, just giving an opinion on one statement made.
I do think an argument can be made that NCC was at least equally deserving of the top 8 as UWW was.
NCC surely lost to a better team (I think) than UWW did. And with that, UWW at NCC would be a reasonable round two game.

[kiko]

I'm not arguing the brackets, just giving an opinion on one statement made.
I do think an argument can be made that NCC was at least equally deserving of the top 8 as UWW was.
NCC surely lost to a better team (I think) than UWW did. And with that, UWW at NCC would be a reasonable round two game.

This is a reasonable argument.  Assuming Whitewater came off the Pool C board first, though, I think the committee would have a hard time sending them on the road to a team that was selected later in that process.

In any event, the bracket is what it is.  The last time North Central and UMU met, it was arguably the strongest Cardinal team in the Thorne era, and based on the grumbling from Alliance, was probably Mount's most vulnerable team.  Our high and their low was basically a push, albeit it is not easy to parse out conclusions when the blizzard was the star of the show.  This is also a stronger NCC team, so I'm very curious to see how they stack up against a more Mount-like Mount team.

[Bluejay9710]

Wash U 21
IWU 0

I'm not sure what I just watched really.

Haha you guys crack me up.

I think you watched the results of Brandon Bauer being knocked out.  With him, I expected IWU to win; without him I at least expected a toss-up.  Now I am not at all confident about the Millikin game next week.

We'll finish 6-4 at best, perhaps 5-5.

Is there anyone on campus currently who can succeed Bauer, or are we in for a 2004-06 trough?

I know a great QB transferring to IWU in January. He is a top level talent from a top west suburban high school. He currently is at another school and the only reason he is transferring is due to a major change he wanted long term and IWU offered the program and his current school did not. Top notch player, great kid, and I know his family who are great people. Not good for my blue jays but someone who will be leading IWU the next 4 years. Unfortunately I do not want to give names since he is not enrolled yet but it is confirmed he his transferring to IWU in January. You will be very pleased.

(modified by GS for formatting)

Sounds like Norm got him enrolled in either our Law School, Med School, or MBA program.

I heard that, after consulting his former babysitter Luke Scarlata, the kid narrowed his med school choices down to Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan before choosing IWU.

[GoPerry]

USee,
Jeremiah Tucker hasn't played since Carthage game. Is he still ok to play or did he get injured?  I always thought he would be another powerful weapon to use in the playoffs to bring in every once and a while against teams with good defenses.

He has been in concussion protocol from what I understand. The Thunder have a few players that are banged up at this point in the season. They won't be at full strength the next couple weeks unfortunately.

Speaking of concussion protocol, I'm curious about MLB Ryan Schwartz's status for Saturday.  I have no insider knowledge and don't know if he's practicing this week.  He looked to get his bell rung pretty good Saturday and I'm hoping him skipping the rest of the game was merely pre-caution in a runaway contest.  Totally right that every team is harboring injury and increasingly so at this point of the season.  But the absence of an All CCIW first teamer for a #1 defense is especially significant in November.  I'm not sure who the next man up would be?

[emma17]

In any event, the bracket is what it is.  The last time North Central and UMU met, it was arguably the strongest Cardinal team in the Thorne era, and based on the grumbling from Alliance, was probably Mount's most vulnerable team.  Our high and their low was basically a push, albeit it is not easy to parse out conclusions when the blizzard was the star of the show.  This is also a stronger NCC team, so I'm very curious to see how they stack up against a more Mount-like Mount team.

That was an incredible game. Kevin Burke must have Polar Bear blood, he thrived in that snow.
I took a quick look at the stats and am reminded of all the extra point decisions and failures. Both teams struggled with them, but NCC more so.
If the weather is a factor in the passing games, hopefully NCC will have a plan to contain another mobile QB.

[USee]

HansenRatings spreads are up:

UMU is -9.9 vs NCC
Wheaton is -28 vs Central
St Johns is -14 vs Chapman.