FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Pat Coleman]

That's what you have to do with young quarterbacks -- give them the part of the playbook that they can have the most success with and don't ask them to do too much.

[Next Man Up]

I am not the expert, but the 2-6 CCIW record in the non conference, combined with Wheaton's 1 non con opponent is going to really hurt the Thunder should they win out this year. The SOS for Wheaton is going to be atrociously bad and with only 5 at large spots, if there are a bunch of 1 loss teams in other conferences with stronger profiles, I am not sure the Thunder are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

CCIW coaches and fans will say its ridiculous that a 9-1, top 5 team wouldn't make the field, and they might be right, but the numbers are gonna be bad, really bad.

The numbers favored Susquehanna over NCC in 2019, but the committee apparently added a smell test to its Pool C criteria. One hopes they'd be inclined to do the same for a 9-1 Wheaton team.

I have no pony in this show, but I have three thoughts after watching last night's game:
1. The officials were terrible. Some of the no calls were actually mind boggling.
2. Both of these teams are EXCEPTIONAL D-III football teams.
3. Wheaton will get into the playoffs irrespective of the numbers. It would take a unique brand of incompetence to keep them out.

Should Wheaton finish 9-1, I think at least the vast majority if not all of us familiar with the conference and Wheaton would agree with the Wheaties being one of D3's superior teams. A squad certainly qualified for a playoff spot when you examine things from a skill standpoint. However, as USee reports, their SOS is not likely to be that impressive even at 9-1. And as Greg Sager delineated, the various conferences are evaluated by the NCAA based on the conference teams from top to bottom rather than just on the top performers. Accordingly, the above statement that "Wheaton will get into the playoffs irrespective of the numbers," seems very much open to question. Again, although there seems to be little question that, based on the team's overall skill level, Wheaton deserves a playoff slot, it cannot be guaranteed the NCAA will agree based on their current evaluation policies. Consider that the same situation existed in 2019 with a 9-1 North Central team. Although their skill level was obvious, they were widely thought to have been the very last team selected for one of the at large playoff spots. As such, it appears that WC proponents will have to continue to hold their breath even should the Thunder finish 9-1 as expected.

* Under what might be classified as Insurance, it certainly appears that top teams need to be sure to schedule their non-conference game(s) against other regularly strong opponents.

[USee]

I am not the expert, but the 2-6 CCIW record in the non conference, combined with Wheaton's 1 non con opponent is going to really hurt the Thunder should they win out this year. The SOS for Wheaton is going to be atrociously bad and with only 5 at large spots, if there are a bunch of 1 loss teams in other conferences with stronger profiles, I am not sure the Thunder are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

CCIW coaches and fans will say its ridiculous that a 9-1, top 5 team wouldn't make the field, and they might be right, but the numbers are gonna be bad, really bad.

The numbers favored Susquehanna over NCC in 2019, but the committee apparently added a smell test to its Pool C criteria. One hopes they'd be inclined to do the same for a 9-1 Wheaton team.

I have no pony in this show, but I have three thoughts after watching last night's game:
1. The officials were terrible. Some of the no calls were actually mind boggling.
2. Both of these teams are EXCEPTIONAL D-III football teams.
3. Wheaton will get into the playoffs irrespective of the numbers. It would take a unique brand of incompetence to keep them out.

Consider that the same situation existed in 2019 with a 9-1 North Central team. Although their skill level was obvious, they were widely thought to have been the very last team selected for one of the at large playoff spots. As such, it appears that WC proponents will have to continue to hold their breath even should the Thunder finish 9-1 as expected.

And NCC's SOS number was almost assuredly much better than Wheaton's is going to be.

[cciwman]

One aspect of the game the other night I have not understood is why Wheaton rotated quarterbacks and brought in Tucker so frequently.  Used as a "wildcat" type, did not throw the ball despite going 6 for 7 the previous week.  Seemed when he came in, everyone knew it was a run play.  While the Cards secondary played outstanding, I think it played into their hands that on well over 10 plays, the QB was not a threat to pass.

[USee]

One aspect of the game the other night I have not understood is why Wheaton rotated quarterbacks and brought in Tucker so frequently.  Used as a "wildcat" type, did not throw the ball despite going 6 for 7 the previous week.  Seemed when he came in, everyone knew it was a run play.  While the Cards secondary played outstanding, I think it played into their hands that on well over 10 plays, the QB was not a threat to pass.

There were 2-3 called passes and he ended up scrambling.

[WashedUpCard]

I am not sure highlighting Maples and Pryor as "more than holding their own" is accurate. If I were listing the great play of NCC players I wouldn't start with the freshmen OL, or even the freshman QB. I'd focus on the NCC secondary and linebackers, or their two DE's those were the stars for NCC. I think Dallas and company had their way with the freshmen OL more times than not.

And Thorne's plan with Lehnen allowed him to do what he can do at this stage, use his legs. He can't really recognize coverage or look off a safety. He has tremendous talent around him and can make most of the throws they need him to make, but NCC won because their defense held Wheaton to 7pts.

If these two played again this week I'd make it a pickem game again.

There is a large delta between holding their own and playing dominating football.  I don't think it was suggested that Pryor and Maples played dominating football on Saturday night.  I mean, Greenfield rushed for a net of 55 yards.  That speaks for itself.  However, from my perspective (albeit from the less than advantageous vantage point of the guest bleachers of McCully Stadium) I didn't see a Reggie White / Tony Mandarich style beat down take place either.  Again, my view wasn't great and that may have happened but I didn't see it.  The fact that NCC ran behind those two players on 4 and 1 from there own 22 says a lot to me about how the coaches feel about their play.

Regarding Lehnen, I agree that he doesn't see the field the way Rutter did (not yet, anyway).  But that was never my expectation coming into the season.  I am, however, extremely impressed with how he has performed. There was a lot of pressure to win this game and he rose to the occasion... generating 341 yards of total offense against what I believe to be the best defense in D3. To throw cold water on Lehnen's performance seems unfair to me - especially when you consider the importance of this game and his relative inexperience. 

Yes, NCC's defense played an amazing/incredible/fantastic game and was the leading contributing factor to winning the game.  This is the best NCC defense I have see since 2010 (maybe ever).  However, NCC did put up 414 yards of offense on Saturday night.  Furthermore, this game could have easily have been 34-7 (drop by Wolff and fumble on the 1). Few D3 offensive units could mirror that performance.

Just my opinion.  On to next week...

I wasn't trying to throw shade on NCC players. NMU gave a list of people he thought were impressive and started with the QB and the two frosh OL. It was said the Freshmen OL "more than held their own" and "..their work can be classified as outstanding". I thought they played like freshmen and the Wheaton DL handled those two pretty handily.

Lehnen made some great plays but was really asked to do limited things. That was a great gameplan by Thorne as the kid did put the ball on the ground 2x, was sacked 3x, hit about 5 others and 3 of his 19 throws could easily have been interceptions. He ran it well, threw a couple of dimes and managed the game well. He is gonna be good.

I don't think either of us will benefit going down the "what if" rabbit hole so I am not even gonna address the "it could have been worse" reference.

My whole point was that the NCC defense, and in particular Dakota Cremeens, Braden Lindmark and Jake Beesley were exceptional. Cremeens is much faster than I remember and his reaction to the run game was big. There were several times Weeks would break a run outside and Cremeens or Lindmark was quick to make the tackle turning a 10-12 yd gain into a 3-4 yd gain. NCC also played a lot of man coverage which brought those guys to the LOS for run support and highlighted the Thunder's inability to take advantage of that man coverage on the outside.

If I was gonna mention players who were impressive it would be Cremeens (leading tackler), Beesley (challenged regular and beat only 1x), Lindmark (second leading tackler), Gilroy (only DL to regularly put pressure on Anthony), Kamienski (made a couple great plays when they needed it), Cam Martin (made it tough to run inside), and the NCC Coaches (who had a masterful gameplan). That's what stood out to me.

Fair points, Usee.  I went back and watched the game again as all of my comments were based upon my observations from watching the game in person.  I agree with your assessment on Cremeens, Lindmark and Beesley.  I thought Gilroy played an solid game as well (as you mentioned). 

One thing that stood out on re-watching the game was the quality of Wheaton's o-line play.  I'm surprised Wheaton didn't run Weeks more in the 2nd half.  13 carries wasn't enough for how well he was playing IMO. 

[USee]

WashedUp-RE: Giovanni Weeks--you are preaching to the choir

[USee]

I just listened to the D3.com podcast. First, it's always great to have the elite Pat@d3.com in the house.

He caught some great sideline and postgame footage but more interestingly, he caught Jeff Thorne's address to the team right after the game and THAT was interesting. Thorne was clearly peeved about the D3.com national poll that 2 teams they beat "last year" (it was 2 years ago JT, but who's counting) are "...ranked ahead of us and one of em we beat by 24 freaking points! Maybe now we will get some RESPECT". He went on to say "The conferences coaches didn't even pick us to win our own conference". Although they kind of picked a tie between NCC and the Thunder (1 vote diff) so I didn't completely understand that beef.

I totally get fans being irked that 2 teams they beat are ranked higher but I am not sure what sense it makes for a coach to voice that to his players. Pretty entertaining clip Pat!

[Pat Coleman]

It doesn't bother me when coaches use the poll as a motivating factor. Generally I know most coaches don't mean it personally when they do so.

[Next Man Up]

WashedUp-RE: Giovanni Weeks--you are preaching to the choir

Perhaps we'll see USee using his considerable influence to persuade the Wheaton coaching staff to call Weeks' number more frequently over the remaining schedule. 🏈 🤔 🤷🏻‍♂️ 😉

[WashedUpCard]

It doesn't bother me when coaches use the poll as a motivating factor. Generally I know most coaches don't mean it personally when they do so.

I found that interesting as well.  Pat, I'm assuming you were not the only member of the media present and Thorne was aware of that?

[WashedUpCard]

More motivational material for Thorne....

https://www.afca.com/d3-poll-mary-hardin-baylor-ranked-no-1-in-first-afca-division-iii-coaches-poll-of-2021/

[Pat Coleman]

It doesn't bother me when coaches use the poll as a motivating factor. Generally I know most coaches don't mean it personally when they do so.

I found that interesting as well.  Pat, I'm assuming you were not the only member of the media present and Thorne was aware of that?

I can't say what he knew but he gave that speech full-throated in an open space and in the presence of whomever was there so I think in all honesty that it was clearly not off the record. NCTV17 was recording video right next to me. He and I talked later and although the part of the conversation that referenced his speech was not recorded, he clearly knew I was there.

[Next Man Up]

CCIW PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

Special Teams --> Chris Vartanian - WashU kicker
Offense ————> Austin Eichstaedt - Carroll WR
Defense ————> Jake Beesley - North Central DB

[Gregory Sager]

* Under what might be classified as Insurance, it certainly appears that top teams need to be sure to schedule their non-conference game(s) against other regularly strong opponents.

Yep. Wheaton will get no help from Northwestern. If anything, the Eagles will likely end up making Wheaton's OWP worse.

Northwestern would've been a great component of a Wheaton schedule five or six years ago when the Eagles were in their three-season string of 8-2 or 9-2 teams. But that changed; the Eagles fell off a bit in 2017 and then were mediocre by UMAC standards in 2018 and 2019, and this season it looks like they're going to have to fight to stay out of the cellar of one of the weakest leagues in D3.

Of course, it's possible that the game was scheduled five or six years ago. That would mean that Wheaton is simply the victim of rotten luck, since I doubt that anyone was able to foresee Northwestern's slippage.