FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[matblake]

Dear Opposing Offensive Coordinators,

Please stop trying to reach block Jake Holladay and Dallas McCrae. I have seen every team try this over the past 3 years with zero success. Was there a coaches convention where you all agreed this was a good idea or do you not watch tape? I am not sure I understand the strategy. Double team or block down and pull around are your best options. You can continue to try reach blocks at your own peril.

Sincerely,

A Concerned Observer

Dear Concerned,
Would that reach block be a standard blocking scheme that would be able to be completed successfully against other opponents?  Do teams regularly change blocking schemes based off opponents strengths and weaknesses?  Would it be wise to simply scrap sections of the playbook because of McCrae and Holladay or do you just try and hope you get lucky on a one off play?

Sincerely,
Asking for a Friend

[USee]

Dear Opposing Offensive Coordinators,

Please stop trying to reach block Jake Holladay and Dallas McCrae. I have seen every team try this over the past 3 years with zero success. Was there a coaches convention where you all agreed this was a good idea or do you not watch tape? I am not sure I understand the strategy. Double team or block down and pull around are your best options. You can continue to try reach blocks at your own peril.

Sincerely,

A Concerned Observer

Dear Concerned,
Would that reach block be a standard blocking scheme that would be able to be completed successfully against other opponents?  Do teams regularly change blocking schemes based off opponents strengths and weaknesses?  Would it be wise to simply scrap sections of the playbook because of McCrae and Holladay or do you just try and hope you get lucky on a one off play?

Sincerely,
Asking for a Friend

Dear Friend,

Said defenders have a combined 14 tackles for loss, which are among the leaders in the country at their position. Most of those tackles for loss have come against teams trying to reach block them. A wise man once said: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is......not advised.

Sincerely,

Concerned

[TrueGreen]

NPU @ Carthage is interesting in that Carthage is Kyle Rooker's former school. There are Firebirds on the current roster that Kyle recruited and coached as Carthage's OC. While I think that NPU is a decided underdog -- Massey has the Firebirds an 82/18 favorite, with the final score predicted as Carthage 41, North Park 24 -- it wouldn't be the upset of the century, or anything like that.

Incidentally, as long as I'm at it, here's the full Massey forecast:

Wash U 69%, @ Augustana 31%	(Wash U 27, Augustana 20)
Wheaton 87%, @ Carroll 13%	(Wheaton 38, Carroll 19)
@ Carthage 82%, NPU 18%	(Carthage 41, NPU 24)
@ NCC 100%, Elmhurst 0%	(NCC 45, Elmhurst 6)
@ IWU 63%, Millikin 37%	(IWU 34, Millikin 28)

Good Point about Coach Rooker (although it didn't help Coach McDonald when he played IWU) making it interesting to watch the dynamics, but I think it would be an upset (if not of the century) for the decade.

Massey is way under estimating Wash U or over estimating Augie. a 1 score game??? Not a chance! Augie has only scored 20 pts one time in conference play vs Millikin and they play the 3rd ranked scoring defense.

NCC & Wheaton will win by much more than 21 & 39.

I would put the IWU/Millikin game as a 55%/45% game. (only because of home field for the Titans). Titans have only held 1 team to under 34 points, so I don't see Millikin with less than that.

[nccfac]

Agree with TrueGreen, but I also think that Wheaton's and Wash U's probability of winning are higher than predicted.

[WUPHF]

If you post a Massey prediction 5 games in to the basketball season, you are guaranteed to get multiple responses questioning the validity of computer rankings so early in to the season, lol.

[USee]

HansenRatings has the following:


Elmhurst @NCC -57.2

Wheaton @Carroll +38.9

North Park @Carthage -26.9

Millikin @ IWU  -13

WashU @Augie  +9.6

[Gregory Sager]

If you post a Massey prediction 5 games in to the basketball season, you are guaranteed to get multiple responses questioning the validity of computer rankings so early in to the season, lol.

I'm fine with that. Question away to your heart's content; I do as well.

Nobody should infer that my posting all five of Massey's CCIW predictions is an implicit endorsement of all of them on my part. The only one that I endorsed was the NPU @ CC Massey 82%/18% line, since it supported my point that the Vikings are, in my words, "a decided underdog." The rest of them I posted with the words, "Incidentally, as long as I'm at it ...", which is another way of saying, "Here's some more fodder for discussion. Knock yourselves out!"

If we're really going to hold Massey Ratings accountable, then TrueGreen is right: Augie most likely isn't going to stay within one score of Wash U, and the two DuPage County juggernauts who run this league are going to steamroll Elmhurst and Carroll by much more drastic scores than Massey Ratings predicts. (I think that the HansenRatings lines USee cited are more likely to be accurate in those two games.)

And, if we're going to hold me to account for Ken Massey's algorithm with regard to the game that I cited, I'd say that ten points apiece should be shaved off of that prediction. I think that the game is more likely to finish as Carthage 31, North Park 14 than the 41-24 score that Ken's HAL 9000 predicted.

[WUPHF]

Of course, I share the Massey Ratings more than most so I am not judging...  My theory is anything that keeps the conversation going...

[Gregory Sager]

Exactly!

[TrueGreen]

Of course, I share the Massey Ratings more than most so I am not judging...  My theory is anything that keeps the conversation going...

Love it. Hansen point differentials more in line with my thinking on the top 3, BUT I still think WashU/Augie won't be that close; AND Big Blue beat IWU last year, so they will have more confidence than you think even after the HUGE loss last week. I do not like my perception of the Titans mindset right now. I fear that the 2 trips to cheese and brats land has left a horrible after taste in their mouth that they don't know how to shake!

[markerickson]

To state that NPU is in a "rebuild" mode infers the team has fallen and seeks to rise.  Rise from the successful 1968 season?  Never gonna happen.

The record has been set and will not change.  Freshmen choose to play for NPU, get spanked for two years, and decide to leave.  It is a repeat mode, not rebuild.  To finish with a .500 record while playing in the CCIW requires many seniors.

[markerickson]

And the 8 x3 + a FG presumes Carroll does not score.

[WUPHF]

BUT I still think WashU/Augie won't be that close;

I hope you are right...

[Gregory Sager]

And the 8 x3 + a FG presumes Carroll does not score.

Well, of course. That's the only way that you can map out the comeback scenario in your head when you're a coach that's down by 27 points in the fourth quarter. In that situation, completely stopping the other team from scoring falls into the "it goes without saying" category.

It doesn't mean that you simply avoid planning for the comeback scenario, though. That would fall into the "giving up" category.

[ncc_fan]

Just in case it's not common knowledge, Logan Hansen's D3 ratings and game predictions can be found at
https://twitter.com/loghanratings